The Official 2014-15 Expectations Thread

[SoCalPat]

I withheld expectations for this season at this time last year because I thought we needed to see the non-con slate before giving a concrete checklist of what I'd like to see. "Improvement" is what we expected this time last year, and the first metric there was going to be total wins. By and large, I thought this team met our exceeded expectations. We saw an improved conference finish, more wins in the non-con and league slate and an NIT appearance. About the only place we didn't improve on last year was our play in the conference tournament, and we had a much tougher challenge this year than we did last year.

This upcoming season is a little bit different. By and large, our roster is set. The non-con will be more difficult, but in the big picture, is largely inconsequential for the purposes of this post. I expect next year's team, going into the final two weeks of Pac-12 play, to be at 10 league wins, with a shot at winning it all (I will grant there are easily-crafted scenarios in which 9 league wins would be acceptable). Because the worst we should do at this juncture is a 10-8 league mark, we should also have an NCAA bid all but locked up, and what we do in the final two weeks and in Vegas will determine our seed.

Our personnel losses, which are basically none, coupled with our incoming talent, has us in position to take a huge leap in the standings next year. Yes, other teams get better, and maybe our time will be in March, not January. Injuries can change a lot as well. But I view finishing fifth or lower as borderline unacceptable. All great Utah coaches have that one year relatively early in their tenure in which expectations are smashed, rather than merely being just met. This is hands-down the best team we've had since Bogut, and is Larry's best chance to over-deliver.

I have similar feelings about this year's Utah basketball team to the football team after 2007 in that we were poised for something special. I'm not talking about reaching the top of the mountain like we did in 2008, but we're gonna be damn good. I think Larry could be better at end-game situations, but I also don't believe he's so bad at them that it's impossible for such situations to even themselves out. It's the law of averages. Kyle lost a lot of close games (many at home no less!) before everything came together in 2008. Under Kyle, Utah football was 6-7 in games decided by one possession or in OT in his first three years. In 2008, that mark was 5-0. Kyle would probably be the first to attribute that sudden change of results in close games to things evening out, and not that he suddenly found the magic formula to win such games.

I think anything less than making the NCAA Tournament this year is a bad year, if only for the reason that not being able to showcase a player like Delon nationally would be a travesty. He deserves that for what he's done for us. And while there's a huge amount of room between making it to the tournament and making it to the Sweet 16, I'm not shutting the door on the latter by a longshot. All I know is we're gonna be damn good.

[LA Ute]

I withheld expectations for this season at this time last year because I thought we needed to see the non-con slate before giving a concrete checklist of what I'd like to see. "Improvement" is what we expected this time last year, and the first metric there was going to be total wins. By and large, I thought this team met our exceeded expectations. We saw an improved conference finish, more wins in the non-con and league slate and an NIT appearance. About the only place we didn't improve on last year was our play in the conference tournament, and we had a much tougher challenge this year than we did last year.

This upcoming season is a little bit different. By and large, our roster is set. The non-con will be more difficult, but in the big picture, is largely inconsequential for the purposes of this post. I expect next year's team, going into the final two weeks of Pac-12 play, to be at 10 league wins, with a shot at winning it all (I will grant there are easily-crafted scenarios in which 9 league wins would be acceptable). Because the worst we should do at this juncture is a 10-8 league mark, we should also have an NCAA bid all but locked up, and what we do in the final two weeks and in Vegas will determine our seed.

Our personnel losses, which are basically none, coupled with our incoming talent, has us in position to take a huge leap in the standings next year. Yes, other teams get better, and maybe our time will be in March, not January. Injuries can change a lot as well. But I view finishing fifth or lower as borderline unacceptable. All great Utah coaches have that one year relatively early in their tenure in which expectations are smashed, rather than merely being just met. This is hands-down the best team we've had since Bogut, and is Larry's best chance to over-deliver.

I have similar feelings about this year's Utah basketball team to the football team after 2007 in that we were poised for something special. I'm not talking about reaching the top of the mountain like we did in 2008, but we're gonna be damn good. I think Larry could be better at end-game situations, but I also don't believe he's so bad at them that it's impossible for such situations to even themselves out. It's the law of averages. Kyle lost a lot of close games (many at home no less!) before everything came together in 2008. Under Kyle, Utah football was 6-7 in games decided by one possession or in OT in his first three years. In 2008, that mark was 5-0. Kyle would probably be the first to attribute that sudden change of results in close games to things evening out, and not that he suddenly found the magic formula to win such games.

I think anything less than making the NCAA Tournament this year is a bad year, if only for the reason that not being able to showcase a player like Delon nationally would be a travesty. He deserves that for what he's done for us. And while there's a huge amount of room between making it to the tournament and making it to the Sweet 16, I'm not shutting the door on the latter by a longshot. All I know is we're gonna be damn good.

I agree. I also think the Utes are due for a little bit of good luck in 2014-15. Doesn't have to be much, just a little. The law of averages says we are due.

[sancho]

I view finishing fifth or lower as borderline unacceptable. All great Utah coaches have that one year relatively early in their tenure in which expectations are smashed, rather than merely being just met. This is hands-down the best team we've had since Bogut, and is Larry's best chance to over-deliver.

I went through a long spell of pessimism after the St Mary's loss. That game was as bad the CU loss in football a few years ago. But I have regained my optimism. I think we have a great team next season.

I can't say that 5th place would be disappointing. That is where the media will likely put us. Arizona will be very good again and will likely have no challengers for the conference title with two weeks remaining. CU and Oregon will be very good again. I assume UCLA will be good, but I don't know what they look like next season.

[SoCalPat]

I went through a long spell of pessimism after the St Mary's loss. That game was as bad the CU loss in football a few years ago. But I have regained my optimism. I think we have a great team next season.

I can't say that 5th place would be disappointing. That is where the media will likely put us. Arizona will be very good again and will likely have no challengers for the conference title with two weeks remaining. CU and Oregon will be very good again. I assume UCLA will be good, but I don't know what they look like next season.

With all due respect, there's no argument that can be made for that kind of sentiment. I'm not saying how we lost to St. Mary's wasn't disheartening, but all we lost from that game was another game in a second-tier tournament. The CU game came at home and cost us a shot at playing for a spot in the Rose Bowl. Who knows when that chance will come again?

But to the real point at hand, the margin between second and fifth could be razor thin, if Arizona really is as good as you suggest (and I don't think they will be). But I don't think all of the teams you mention will be better than Utah. And the last two years, the media have missed on Utah by 1-2 spots from the final standings. If they want to pick us fifth, then that means we should finish third.

[311ute]

I share SoCalPat’s optimism. The pieces are there for next year to be a very big year.

I think the minimum expectation (barring any major injuries) should be a NCAA tournament bid. But honestly I think we have the ability to be a top-25 team with a possibility of a sweet sixteen-type run in the tourney.

FWIW Ken Pomeroy has us in his “way to early top 25” for next year.

As far as where we should expect to finish in the conference…. I expect there to be a clear top 6 and bottom 6. I see the conference being a 6 bid league.

· UA will be the top dog regardless. Gordon’s gone, but they replace him with a top 10 recruit in Stanley Johnson. Nick Johnson is most likely gone. Possible that Hollis-Jefferson leaves, but he’s probably coming back. Ashley already said he’s coming back, and Zeus should be back. Even if all their guys were to go I’d still pick them #1.
· UCLA will take a serious hit, especially on the perimeter. Kyle Anderson and LaVine are gone. Wear twins gone. The consensus seems to be that Jordan Adams will declare. They have a very good recruiting class coming in (most of them bigs), but I see UCLA taking a step back next year.
· Colorado will be good, but according to CU fans (and there was an ESPN insider article about it a few days back) Dinwiddie is all but gone. But, they still return virtually everyone else, and Johnson, Booker and Scott isn’t a bad core.
· Oregon and Stanford will both be good. Stanford loses Heustis and Powell but they’re bringing in a very impressive recruiting class. Oregon loses a lot (Calliste, Loyd, Moser, Amardi, Austin) but because of their depth they bring back a lot of good players. They also are bringing in some solid transfers/recruits as Altman has done since he’s been there.
· On a side note, ASU will take a HUGE step back next year. Top 4 players gone. Not a very impressive recruiting class coming in (and it was announced today that one of their JUCOs will be released from his LOI), and a bad coach, IMO. Just so happens that two former Boylen assistants are on staff (Stan Johnson, and announced today that Barret Peery will be leaving Indian Hills C.C. to join ASU’s staff). I think ASU will be in the bottom 3 next year.


Where does Utah fall in the top 6…. I would say top 3 or 4, but as we saw this year the margin could be very small. I could see a game or two being the difference between finishing 2^nd and finishing 6^th.

[311ute]

My point is, with the exception of Arizona, I don't see any team being clearly better than us. I see us at the very least right on par with those other 4 teams I mentioned. Where we finish exactly will probably come down to one or two games. But I would say with 90% certainty we will finish anywhere from 2nd to 6th, and I really like our chances to be in the top 3 or 4 at the end of the year.

[sancho]

With all due respect, there's no argument that can be made for that kind of sentiment. I'm not saying how we lost to St. Mary's wasn't disheartening, but all we lost from that game was another game in a second-tier tournament. The CU game came at home and cost us a shot at playing for a spot in the Rose Bowl. Who knows when that chance will come again?

I guess meant as bad in the sense that it was an important game that we would have been able to win in our sleep.

As far as expectations go, I don't care if we finish 3rd, 4th, 5th, or 6th (1st or 2nd would be really exciting though). My expectation is that we are solidly off the bubble as a clear tournament team by late March.

[SoCalPat]

I guess meant as bad in the sense that it was an important game that we would have been able to win in our sleep.

As far as expectations go, I don't care if we finish 3rd, 4th, 5th, or 6th (1st or 2nd would be really exciting though). My expectation is that we are solidly off the bubble as a clear tournament team by late March.

Your 6th place PAC 12 team is always squarely on the bubble, in addition to likely being a .500 team in league play. That's not a recipe for making a significant jump nationally.

[sancho]

Your 6th place PAC 12 team is always squarely on the bubble, in addition to likely being a .500 team in league play. That's not a recipe for making a significant jump nationally.

Again, my primary expectation is that we comfortably make the dance.

[sancho]

Tony Jones tweets that Fields will transfer. Bummer. I'll miss the energy and the chops.

[Diehard Ute]

Per Jones tweets Fields liked Salt Lake, but wanted to be closer to home

[Applejack]

Per Jones tweets Fields liked Salt Lake, but wanted to be closer to home

We have not had good luck keeping East Coast recruits in the fold. We don't recruit in D.C./Boston/NYC very often, but when we do, they seem to transfer or never show up.

I hope the Florida football recruits reverse this trend.

[Applejack]

Again, my primary expectation is that we comfortably make the dance.

This may shock the whole board, but I doubt we make the leap from NIT washout to "comfortably in the dance." How many teams were comfortably in the dance from the Pac this year? 2? Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, and ASU were all sweating in the weeks leading up to the Pac tournament. If we had held on against Stanford they would have been out.

I think making the tourney is a worthy goal for this squad - we have the horses (on paper) to do it. But we are much more likely to make it in as a 10 seed than as a 4.

[sancho]

This may shock the whole board, but I doubt we make the leap from NIT washout to "comfortably in the dance." How many teams were comfortably in the dance from the Pac this year? 2? Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, and ASU were all sweating in the weeks leading up to the Pac tournament. If we had held on against Stanford they would have been out.

That was the perception, but it turned out that all of those teams actually were comfortably in. The worst seed was a 10, which is not where bubble teams go. A 10-seed fits my criteria. In fact, comparing us to those teams does a disservice to Joseph McCarthy and everything he stood for.

In my new optimism, I see the 10 seed as more than possible, even assuming we get little production from newcomers. If the newcomers step up, who knows what the ceiling is?

[Applejack]

That was the perception, but it turned out that all of those teams actually were comfortably in. The worst seed was a 10, which is not where bubble teams go. A 10-seed fits my criteria. In fact, comparing us to those teams does a disservice to Joseph McCarthy and everything he stood for.

In my new optimism, I see the 10 seed as more than possible, even assuming we get little production from newcomers. If the newcomers step up, who knows what the ceiling is?

Agreed (except about the McCarthy analogy - all analogies are flawed, just accept mine). I am assuming that (1) we get little from the new-comers (2) continued excellence from Wright, Lover, and Taylor, and (3) a leap from at least one of Olsen, Tucker, Batshitski, Ogbe, Onwas. If we get that, I think we make the tournament. Anything more, and we might have a chance at a second weekend of the tournament. Anything less (an injury to a main guy, no development from the bench mob) and we might be NITing.

[sancho]

Agreed (except about the McCarthy analogy - all analogies are flawed, just accept mine). I am assuming that (1) we get little from the new-comers (2) continued excellence from Wright, Lover, and Taylor, and (3) a leap from at least one of Olsen, Tucker, Batshitski, Ogbe, Onwas. If we get that, I think we make the tournament. Anything more, and we might have a chance at a second weekend of the tournament. Anything less (an injury to a main guy, no development from the bench mob) and we might be NITing.

We are on the same page. I do think it's reasonable to assume for now that there will be continued excellence from the Big3 and that someone else will improve noticeably (I think that improvement will come in the form of Bach playing consistently as well as he has at times).

[Scratch]

Jeff Goodman in an ESPN Insider article lists Utah as one of 6 "risers" for next season:

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/jeff-good man/post?id=3597

[SoCalPat]

That was the perception, but it turned out that all of those teams actually were comfortably in. The worst seed was a 10, which is not where bubble teams go. A 10-seed fits my criteria. In fact, comparing us to those teams does a disservice to Joseph McCarthy and everything he stood for.

In my new optimism, I see the 10 seed as more than possible, even assuming we get little production from newcomers. If the newcomers step up, who knows what the ceiling is?

As one who has been labeled an anti-Larryite, unflichingly pessimistic and quick to pull the doom-and-gloom card, let me be emphatically positive for once: This team next year is a single-digit seed, and we'll be a top 4 seed before we're a double-digit seed. The staff knows we're loaded for bear; the Reyes commit is the best evidence of this and shows we're not done recruiting. How many other programs actively pursue upgrades over arguably the second-best player on their teams, and land them? (This applies to Reyes, Kuzma and Chapman vis-a-vis Loveridge). The right incoming one-and-done transfer could put us over the top and turn us from damn good into lethal.

Maybe it's because spring is in the air and my endorphin count is up, but I am extremely bullish on next year's Utah basketball team.

[Scratch]

As one who has been labeled an anti-Larryite, unflichingly pessimistic and quick to pull the doom-and-gloom card, let me be emphatically positive for once: This team next year is a single-digit seed, and we'll be a top 4 seed before we're a double-digit seed. The staff knows we're loaded for bear; the Reyes commit is the best evidence of this and shows we're not done recruiting. How many other programs actively pursue upgrades over arguably the second-best player on their teams, and land them? (This applies to Reyes, Kuzma and Chapman vis-a-vis Loveridge). The right incoming one-and-done transfer could put us over the top and turn us from damn good into lethal.

Maybe it's because spring is in the air and my endorphin count is up, but I am extremely bullish on next year's Utah basketball team.

I tend to agree with Pat on this one. At the start of last year, I thought 8 conference wins and 18 total wins would have been a successful year, so I'm not exactly a huge optimist. I think that next year we're a top-25 team even without any of the newcomers (Kuzma, Wright, Chapman, and Reyes). If we can get some solid contribution from a couple of those guys (which I think is a good possibility) then we're squarely in the picture for a top 4 or 5 seed, as Pat said.

I know people worry about end-of-game situations; I'm not too worried about that. Those will improve through experience, an increasing diversity of offensive threats, and (most important) our luck evening out. Also, if this team just improves incrementally most of the close games won't come down to the wire because the improvement will result in a few more made shots throughout the course of the game. A basket's worth 2 points if it's with 10 minutes left if the first half or with 10 seconds left in the game.

[Utah]

I have similar feelings about this year's Utah basketball team to the football team after 2007 in that we were poised for something special. I'm not talking about reaching the top of the mountain like we did in 2008, but we're gonna be damn good. I think Larry could be better at end-game situations, but I also don't believe he's so bad at them that it's impossible for such situations to even themselves out. It's the law of averages. Kyle lost a lot of close games (many at home no less!) before everything came together in 2008. Under Kyle, Utah football was 6-7 in games decided by one possession or in OT in his first three years. In 2008, that mark was 5-0. Kyle would probably be the first to attribute that sudden change of results in close games to things evening out, and not that he suddenly found the magic formula to win such games.

I feel the way about football this year as you did in 2008. The parallels and situations are almost exactly the same. Except for this years team is deeper more talented and more experienced.

And we have better coaches

[SoCalPat]

I feel the way about football this year as you did in 2008. The parallels and situations are almost exactly the same. Except for this years team is deeper more talented and more experienced.

And we have better coaches

I'm almostthere on football as well, but our competition is getting stronger on the gridiron. In hoops, virtually everyone else is going to endure some significant losses. UCLA already has with Kyle Anderson declaring. As it is, I plan on dropping $20 on Utah at 400-1 to win the national title. I see enough parallels between Utah this year and Missouri and/or Auburn last year to see value in such a bet.

[311ute]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

Lunardi has Utah as a 9 seed in his 2015 Bracketology.

Arizona 1 seed
Stanford 11 seed
Oregon 8 seed
UCLA 11 seed
Colorado 10 seed

[311ute]

Lundardi also has BYU as the last team in. I disagree. I don’t see BYU as a tournament team next year. Lose Carlino and Mika. Collinsworth will most likely miss most of the non-conference (if he does play he won’t be near 100%). Jamal Aytes (transfer from UNLV) won’t be eligible until mid-December. Playing in the WCC, the non-conference portion of their schedule is critical for them.

BYU wasn’t a tournament caliber team this year, but squeaked in because they found a way to rig the system (inflated RPI).

If I were a BYU fan I would be embarrassed that Josh Sharp, Skyler Halford, and Luke Worthington are scholarship players on my team.

Even with the game being in the Marriott Center, I think the Utes win going away next year. Especially given the fact that it could be a BYU team without Collinsworth (and Aytes).

Ask yourself this question… who on BYU’s roster next year would you trade with any player on our’s? Aside from probably Kova, I wouldn’t give up anyone on our squad for any BYU player not named Haws or Collinsworth.

[sancho]

Ask yourself this question… who on BYU’s roster next year would you trade with any player on our’s? Aside from probably Kova, I wouldn’t give up anyone on our squad for any BYU player not named Haws or Collinsworth.

I don't know anything about Aytes, but I wouldn't trade anyone on my church ball team for Worthington.

[Scratch]

I don't really get all the Aytes hype. He was a solid (not great) recruit with some good (not great) offers who left UNLV because he wasn't good enough to get PT on a UNLV team that turned down a CBI invite. He'll probably help BYU because they are so limited inside, but I don't see any reason to expect him to make a truly significant impact.

[LA Ute]

I don't really get all the Aytes hype. He was a solid (not great) recruit with some good (not great) offers who left UNLV because he wasn't good enough to get PT on a UNLV team that turned down a CBI invite. He'll probably help BYU because they are so limited inside, but I don't see any reason to expect him to make a truly significant impact.

If you had a testimony you'd see Aytes differently.

[Scorcho]

you can't spell 'Hype' without a 'Y'

From the Final Four in 94 bumper stickers to the Quest for Perfection Slogan of a few years ago. Greg Wrubell even guaranteed more than a couple of sweet sixteens before 2020 for BYU Basketball.

BYU isn't short on swagger, it's the execution they have some issues with.

[sancho]

He'll probably help BYU because they are so limited inside

It's really just this. Aytes might not be a big deal to some teams, but if you get stuck in their situation of having only Nate Austin and literally no other big players, you have to feel excited to have him.

BYU doesn't use their big men well anyway. They just want someone who can try to rebound and play defense. Rose had a future NBA player in Davies, but he still had Haws jacking up threes from half court. Davies had to fight for his points on the offensive glass. Mika is now facing the same situation. It's a guard's system.

[justaute]

Scratch....I think there's a difference between being an optimist and being a cool-aid-drinking fanatic; you are just fine. I'm a glass half, just half, kind of a guy. Unlike a couple of fans on UFN, I certainly don't go around guaranteeing Utah being in the top-half in BB or the football team going to a bowl game.

Our conference foes such as ASU, Cal, and a few others aren't exactly standing still. They, too, have 4/5 star players coming in. Will they pan-out? Who knows. Will Loveridge make a meaningful improvement? Will Wright be able to develop a decent -- doesn't have to be great -- perimeter game? Who knows. Will guys be able to better understand passing lanes, rotational/help defense? Not a clue. Having coached at D1 and D1-level high-school players (in another sport), I know things can change swiftly.

All that said, the team is definitely on a positive trajectory and I like it. I'm all about show-me-the-effort and improvement on/off the court. Let the results speak for themselves.

I tend to agree with Pat on this one. At the start of last year, I thought 8 conference wins and 18 total wins would have been a successful year, so I'm not exactly a huge optimist. I think that next year we're a top-25 team even without any of the newcomers (Kuzma, Wright, Chapman, and Reyes). If we can get some solid contribution from a couple of those guys (which I think is a good possibility) then we're squarely in the picture for a top 4 or 5 seed, as Pat said.

I know people worry about end-of-game situations; I'm not too worried about that. Those will improve through experience, an increasing diversity of offensive threats, and (most important) our luck evening out. Also, if this team just improves incrementally most of the close games won't come down to the wire because the improvement will result in a few more made shots throughout the course of the game. A basket's worth 2 points if it's with 10 minutes left if the first half or with 10 seconds left in the game.

[Applejack]

Scratch....I think there's a difference between being an optimist and being a cool-aid-drinking fanatic; you are just fine. I'm a glass half, just half, kind of a guy. Unlike a couple of fans on UFN, I certainly don't go around guaranteeing Utah being in the top-half in BB or the football team going to a bowl game.

Our conference foes such as ASU, Cal, and a few others aren't exactly standing still. They, too, have 4/5 star players coming in. Will they pan-out? Who knows. Will Loveridge make a meaningful improvement? Will Wright be able to develop a decent -- doesn't have to be great -- perimeter game? Who knows. Will guys be able to better understand passing lanes, rotational/help defense? Not a clue. Having coached at D1 and D1-level high-school players (in another sport), I know things can change swiftly.

All that said, the team is definitely on a positive trajectory and I like it. I'm all about show-me-the-effort and improvement on/off the court. Let the results speak for themselves.

I'm firmly on this moderately fast-moving bandwagon!