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Thread: 15 years ago at this time, we were worried about Y2K. . .

  1. #1

    15 years ago at this time, we were worried about Y2K. . .

    It definitely seems as I get older, time goes by much faster. You take a moment to look up, and 15 years has gone by in a flash.

    It made me start thinking about what has really changes in those 15 years. It seems to me that there was less amount of change during this period compared to the previous 15 years (1985 to 2000), but that may just be my perception based on my age during those periods.

    Thinking of the biggest changes in the past 15 years that have an actual impact on my life, I would have to include-

    Technology-
    - Smartphones and wireless data replacing wired phones and a portion of wired data
    - Tablets taking over PC's in personal computing

    Social-
    - LGBT became much more accepted socially

    Political
    - War on Terror
    - China emerging as a dominant world presence

    Medical-
    - Genetics

    In a way, it is kind of disappointing. When you think about what may come in the next 15 years, the imagination can run a bit wild (flying cars, Time Travel, robots, space exploration, major medical advances). In many areas, we seem to have taken a step back, such as no more supersonic commercial travel, retirement of Space Shuttle program with no replacement in the future, etc.

    Anyways, I find it interesting to think aboutand would love to hear other's perspectives.
    “To me there is no dishonor in being wrong and learning. There is dishonor in willful ignorance and there is dishonor in disrespect.” James Hatch, former Navy Seal and current Yale student.

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by chrisrenrut View Post
    It definitely seems as I get older, time goes by much faster. You take a moment to look up, and 15 years has gone by in a flash.

    It made me start thinking about what has really changes in those 15 years. It seems to me that there was less amount of change during this period compared to the previous 15 years (1985 to 2000), but that may just be my perception based on my age during those periods.

    Thinking of the biggest changes in the past 15 years that have an actual impact on my life, I would have to include-

    Technology-
    - Smartphones and wireless data replacing wired phones and a portion of wired data
    - Tablets taking over PC's in personal computing

    Social-
    - LGBT became much more accepted socially

    Political
    - War on Terror
    - China emerging as a dominant world presence

    Medical-
    - Genetics

    In a way, it is kind of disappointing. When you think about what may come in the next 15 years, the imagination can run a bit wild (flying cars, Time Travel, robots, space exploration, major medical advances). In many areas, we seem to have taken a step back, such as no more supersonic commercial travel, retirement of Space Shuttle program with no replacement in the future, etc.

    Anyways, I find it interesting to think aboutand would love to hear other's perspectives.
    Transportation will be the biggest change IMO.

    Per tmq
    Autonomous cars may be in the works. Obviously there are all kinds of issues to get worked out, including insurance liability. Assuming the technology can be achieved (reasonably likely but not proven), the transition period may be daunting -- imagine conventional and computer-driven vehicles mingling on the roads. Will driving eventually be banned, or confined to hobbyists? The tech that may make cars able to guide themselves also will create a super-detailed record not only of where your vehicle has been, but where it's going right now. Surely the NSA won't eavesdrop!

    Off-road construction and mining vehicles are good candidates for driverless technology.
    If achievable, the autonomous car should be a huge safety breakthrough. Most crashes result from human error: Computer errors will never be zero, but should be far less frequent. Young drivers won't be reckless, older drivers won't lose focus. Our grandchildren may be shocked to learn we once drove these big, fast-moving hunks of metal down freeways where the slightest steering mistake could lead to tragedy. Future generations may say, "Grandpa, wasn't driving a car dangerous?"

    And if it works, the autonomous vehicle may revolutionize how we think about cars. A family group won't need two or three. In the morning, the car will drive one parent to work, return and drive a kid to school, come back and drive the other parent to work, then repeat the process to pick them up later. Two families or some friends could share a car, if the vehicle could deliver itself wherever required. Parking won't need to be near the office, school or other destination: The car could drop you off, go on to park itself in some satellite facility, then return when summoned. Traveling and commuting will become less stressful if you can read or nod off as the car controls itself. No longer will senior citizens dread the moment when the car keys are taken away: They'll be more mobile and independent.

    The downside is that if cars become safer, more convenient and less of an urban burden from a parking standpoint, we'll never be rid of them.

    Now think about the impact of autonomous vehicles on the wheel as a profession. Some 1.7 million Americans work as licensed truck drivers, and truck driving currently is an employment growth sector. What if trucks drive themselves? Because the capital cost of a tractor-trailer truck is much higher than that of a car, and because wages and benefits could be eliminated, putting complicated autonomous operation equipment into trucks could be easier to justify as an expense than putting such equipment into cars.
    People may be uncomfortable with driverless 18-wheelers barreling down the highway. But if electronic trucks eliminated the risk of crashes like this one -- 10 people killed by a truck driver who'd been on the road 11 hours and probably fell asleep -- autonomous trucks could be seen as a boon, at least to those who aren't truck drivers. Daimler is targeting 2025 for sales of drone trucks that drive themselves on highways, with an operator -- sort of a harbor pilot -- taking over for city streets, according to Wired Magazine.

    Off-road autonomous trucks may happen before robot semis hit the freeways. Thousands of truck drivers work at construction sites and mines where there are no public roads and no risk of colliding with civilians. Self-driving ocean-going ships may be in the works, considering the ocean environment is more predictable than roads. And TMQ's pal James Fallows continues to think that pilotless aircraft are coming. Initially passengers will feel terrified of boarding a plane that has no pilot. Future generations may feel safer on such flying machines.

    Uber is working hard to convince you that its executives are creepy and arrogant. But surely you love the friendly, punctual drivers. So wait till this or some similar firm rolls out automated taxis. No tipping required!

    Autonomous driving, or sailing and flying, could generate benefits for society while costing jobs. Does that mean improving technology should be banned? If improving vehicle technology had been banned in the 1950s, today we'd all be in smog-belching, finned 10 mpg land yachts with no seat belts. A century ago when agriculture was the dominant job engine, Americans would have been horrified to learn that in 2014, only about 2 percent of employment would be in the farm sector. But nearly everyone, including most farmers, is better off as a result. The likely advent of autonomous driving technology has to be seen through that lens.

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    "Be a philosopher. A man can compromise to gain a point. It has become apparent that a man can, within limits, follow his inclinations within the arms of the Church if he does so discreetly." - The Walking Drum

    "And here’s what life comes down to—not how many years you live, but how many of those years are filled with bullshit that doesn’t amount to anything to satisfy the requirements of some dickhead you’ll never get the pleasure of punching in the face." – Adam Carolla

  3. #3
    Administrator U-Ute's Avatar
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    Another thing to consider about autonomous cars: if autonomous cars become ubiquitous, there may be no speeding or parking tickets, and the income of cities may drop significantly.

  4. #4
    Five-O Diehard Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by U-Ute View Post
    Another thing to consider about autonomous cars: if autonomous cars become ubiquitous, there may be no speeding or parking tickets, and the income of cities may drop significantly.
    Not really.

    People really get hung up on the revenue from citations. It isn't nearly as lucrative as people think

    In Utah most of the fine for a traffic ticket doesn't even go to the city who writes it.

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