2015 NCAA Tournament

[DrumNFeather]

It's time!

With just 5 games remaining in our regular season, and some of the smaller league tournaments just a week or so away, it's time to start looking at what the field of 68 might look like. As teams get auto-bids, we'll fill out the chart below (don't worry, it'll even itself out). Until then, we can speculate away.

Here's a complete list of conference tournament dates: http://www.bloggingthebracket.com/20...nt-information

AAC	SMU 27-6 (#1 Seed)
ACC	Notre Dame 29-5 (#4 Seed)
America East	Albany 24-8 (#1 Seed)
Atlantic 10	VCU 26-9 (#5 Seed)
Atlantic Sun	North Florida 23-11 (#1 Seed)
Big 12	Iowa St. 25-8 (#2 Seed)
Big East	Villanova 32-2 (#1 Seed)
Big Sky	Eastern Washington 26-8 (#2 Seed)
Big South	Coastal Carolina 24-9 (#3 Seed)
Big Ten	Wisconsin 31-2 (#1 Seed)
Big West	UC Irvine 21-12 (#3 Seed)
CAA	Northeastern 23-11 (#3 Seed)
Conference USA	UAB 19-15 (#4 Seed)
Horizon League	Valparaiso 28-5 (#1 Seed)
MAAC	Manhattan 19-13 (#3 Seed)
MAC	Buffalo 23-9 (#2 Seed)
MEAC	Hampton 16-17 (#6 Seed)
Missouri Valley	Northern Iowa 30-3 (#2 Seed)
Mountain West	Wyoming 25-9 (#4 Seed)
NEC	Robert Morris 19-14 (#2 Seed)
Ohio Valley	Belmont 22-10 (#3 Seed)
Pac 12	Arizona 31-3 (#1 Seed)
Patriot	Lafayette 22-12 (#4 Seed)
SEC	Kentucky 34-0 (#1 Seed)
Southern	Wofford 28-6 (#1 Seed)
Southland	Stephen F. Austin 29-4 (#1 Seed)
Summit	North Dakota St. 23-9 (#2 Seed)
Sun Belt	Georgia St. (24-9) (#1 Seed)
SWAC	Texas Southern 22-12 (#1 Seed)
WAC	New Mexico St. 23-10 (#1 Seed)
WCC	Gonzaga 32-2 (#1 Seed)
IVY	Harvard 22-7

[DrumNFeather]

From ESPN’s Bubble Watch:

AAC

• Locks – SMU
• Work Left to do – Temple, Tulsa, Cincinnati

A10

• Locks – VCU
• Work Left to do – Dayton, UMASS, Davidson, Rhode Island

ACC

• Locks – UVA, Duke, UNC, Louisville, Notre Dame
• Work left to do – NC St, Pitt, Miami

B12

• Locks – Kansas, ISU, Oklahoma
• Work left to do – Baylor, WVU, OK. St, Texas

Big East

• Locks – Villanova
• Work Left to do – Georgetown, Providence, Butler, Xavier, St. John’s

Big 10

• Locks – Wisconsin, Maryland
• Work left to do – Indiana, MSU, Ohio St., Illinois, Iowa, Purdue

MWC

• Locks – SDSU
• Work left to do – CSU, Boise St.

Pac 12

• Locks – Utah, Arizona
• Work left to do – UCLA, Stanford, Oregon

SEC

• Locks – Kentucky, Arkansas
• Work left to do – Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Georgia, LSU

Other

• Locks – Gonzaga, Northern Iowa, Wichita St.
• Work left to do – BYU, Old Dominion

[Utah]

Here's how Utah probably wants it to end up:

Best case, most realistic scenario:
Gonzaga, Arizona as 2 seeds. Utah as a 3.
This would put Gonzaga in the west forcing Arizona back east, and allowing Utah to stay out West.

Best case, dreaming slightly:
Gonzaga a 1, Utah a 2, Arizona a 2 or 3.
This would put Gonzaga and Utah out west, Arizona back east.

Worst case:
Gonzaga a 1, Arizona a 2, Utah a 3.
This puts Arizona and Gonzaga out west, and most likely puts Utah in Cleveland with Kentucky.

We would want to stick with Gonzaga and stay out west. Arizona gets screwed, unless they can stay a 2 (very likely), and Gonzaga jumps one of Kentucky, Wisconsin, Virginia, Duke into a 1 seed. Then that would hurt Utah, forcing Utah out of the west.

[DrumNFeather]

Interesting read from Seth Davis on some myths related to the tournament selection process: http://www.si.com/college-basketball...caa-tournament

[U-Ute]

Sporting News still has Utah with an outside chance at a 2 seed.

Utah
Record: 21-5
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-3
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-4
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 9-5
Bad losses: None
Best wins: Wichita State, UCLA, Stanford
Remaining schedule: Arizona State, Arizona, at Washington State, at Washington, Pac-12 Tournament
Next up: Thursday vs. Arizona State, 10:30 p.m, Fox Sports 1
Overview: The relative absence of high-quality victories – as well as that fifth loss that came Sunday against Oregon — will keep Utah out of the No. 1 seed conversation and make the Utes the most disposable of the 2-seed contenders. But they could solidify their contention for the 2 line with a home win over Arizona and a Pac-12 tourney title.

That record against top 25 RPI...

[DrumNFeather]

As of last nights results, bracketology shows:

2 - Arizona
3 - Utah
11- Oregon
11- UCLA (last four in)

Stanford (last four out)

[DrumNFeather]

As of last nights results, bracketology shows:

2 - Arizona
3 - Utah
11- Oregon
11- UCLA (last four in)

Stanford (last four out)

At halftime of the Arizona/Colorado game, Lunardi said that Arizona doesn't move no matter what happens on Saturday. The Utes on the other hand could move up to the 2 line. The only problem would be Kansas being ahead of them and having the head to head.

[concerned]

At halftime of the Arizona/Colorado game, Lunardi said that Arizona doesn't move no matter what happens on Saturday. The Utes on the other hand could move up to the 2 line. The only problem would be Kansas being ahead of them and having the head to head.

Is we are a 2, we will be the 8 seed in uk's bracket. Better off as a 3 as tha 9 seed.

[U-Ute]

Win or lose tomorrow, the big thing is to stay off of that #4 line. Being a 2 or 3 seed really doesn't make much difference. I'd rather be a 3 seed and be close to home than a 2 seed in the east.

[DrumNFeather]

NC St, who had seemingly played its way into the tournament over the last few weeks (9 seed in the current projection) is getting thumped by Boston College (currently 1-14 in the ACC). This probably puts them back on the bubble.

[chrisrenrut]

Wichita St. with a convincing win over 11th ranked UNI. They are looking easily as our best win, unless we pull it off tonight.

[Utah]

Is we are a 2, we will be the 8 seed in uk's bracket. Better off as a 3 as tha 9 seed.

This. We want Gonzaga and Arizona as 2 seeds and us as a three seed. That will put us in the West with Gonzaga. If Arizona and Gonzaga end up with different seeds, then that will push us east.

[DrumNFeather]

The small school conference tourneys kick off tonight, so we'll start filling in the auto-bids.

Also, with Texas beating Baylor, and other bubble teams getting big wins, we're looking more and more like a 3-bid league. I think at this point either UCLA or Stanford is going to have to knock of Arizona in the P12 tourney to get in, and even if they do that they might be heading to Dayton for the first four.

[U-Ute]

Jon Wilner reminds us about what is and isn't important as the PAC-12 heads into Selection Sunday.

*** What does matter in the process? In a nutshell:


Quality wins
Lack of bad losses
Strength of schedule
Scheduling intent
Eye test

I think that the top item is the only category where Utah fails.

[SoCalPat]

Jon Wilner reminds us about what is and isn't important as the PAC-12 heads into Selection Sunday.



I think that the top item is the only category where Utah fails.

Ranked, as they pertain to Utah

1. Lack of bad losses (indisputable)

2. Scheduling intent (we backed away from no one -- Larry will be first to say he needed another top 100 home game, but wasn't going to hit the road for ANOTHER top 50 road game)

3. Eye test (analytics back up a lot about what makes Utah dominant)

4. SOS (We didn't get what we were looking for out of UNLV and the rest of the league. We had the easiest runner-up finish this league has probably ever seen)

5. Quality wins (Blame No. 4. Thank god for the Shox and BYU.)

[sancho]

Jon Wilner reminds us about what is and isn't important as the PAC-12 heads into Selection Sunday.

SI.com did one of these last week. "Myths of selection" articles are so common in early March. The thing is, they are all written by people who have never been on the selection committee. They always want to tell us that RPI doesn't matter, except when it does. The selection committee never considers conference affiliation, which cannot possibly be true on the subconscious level and is almost certainly not even true at the discussion level.

[sancho]

Question:

Why do the last teams in get 11 seeds? Why does, say, Stanford get an 11 while, say, Murray State gets a 12. I think everyone knows that Murray State is a better team. Is this why there are so many 5-12 upsets? Do they do it to ensure 5-12 upsets? The 6 seed seems like a much better place for the first round. The 11 seeds are usually full of bad P5 teams, while the 12/13 seeds are often full of good mid majors.

[U-Ute]

Question:

Why do the last teams in get 11 seeds? Why does, say, Stanford get an 11 while, say, Murray State gets a 12. I think everyone knows that Murray State is a better team. Is this why there are so many 5-12 upsets? Do they do it to ensure 5-12 upsets? The 6 seed seems like a much better place for the first round. The 11 seeds are usually full of bad P5 teams, while the 12/13 seeds are often full of good mid majors.

Typically the 12 seeds go to the champions of smaller conferences that have an automatic qualifier. Usually those teams aren't better and don't have the talent to compete. Sometimes they do surprise. Even still, I've seen them get higher seeds when they do have talent though, so it isn't a foregone conclusion (see the MVC before it was sexy to pick them).

[sancho]

Typically the 12 seeds go to the champions of smaller conferences that have an automatic qualifier. Usually those teams aren't better and don't have the talent to compete. Sometimes they do surprise. Even still, I've seen them get higher seeds when they do have talent though, so it isn't a foregone conclusion (see the MVC before it was sexy to pick them).

Murray State is #25 in the AP poll. They are clearly better than a 12 seed, but that is where ESPN has them right now because they are going to be the auto-bid in a small conference. Teams that would get an at-large but belong to one-bid leagues often get a worse seed than they should.

The committee is so accustomed to putting the auto-bids in at 12-16 that they often miss teams that should be higher. A team that won its conference and won its conference tournament will often be better than the "last four in," but the seeding rarely goes that way.

[DrumNFeather]

We're still a 4 seed in the South according to the latest Bracketology. Arkansas has been replaced by WVU as the 5 in that bracket. They could give us trouble (hypothetically).

[SoCalPat]

Typically the 12 seeds go to the champions of smaller conferences that have an automatic qualifier. Usually those teams aren't better and don't have the talent to compete. Sometimes they do surprise. Even still, I've seen them get higher seeds when they do have talent though, so it isn't a foregone conclusion (see the MVC before it was sexy to pick them).

There are three kinds of 12 seeds

1. Surprise tournament champions from multiple-bid leagues. I think these kinds of teams pose the least amount of threat in a 5-12 matchup.

2. Your last team in from a power league that has 3 or more berths that didn't win a conference tournament. These are the scary teams. They've had rest, they've been tested and they likely have multiple top 50 RPI wins (as well as multiple sub-150 RPI losses). Very unpredictable.

3. Your best teams (regular season and conference tournament winner) from one-bid leagues. Since the field expanded to 68, you're seeing this happen frequently. Last year, three of the five 12 seeds fit this bill (the other two 12 seeds were teams that fit No. 2 -- NC State and Xavier -- in a First Four game). THese teams are usually senior-laden and don't get rattled. They're not as talented, to be sure, but they can trump that with the intangibles.

[sancho]

There are three kinds of 12 seeds

1. Surprise tournament champions from multiple-bid leagues. I think these kinds of teams pose the least amount of threat in a 5-12 matchup.

2. Your last team in from a power league that has 3 or more berths that didn't win a conference tournament. These are the scary teams. They've had rest, they've been tested and they likely have multiple top 50 RPI wins (as well as multiple sub-150 RPI losses). Very unpredictable.

3. Your best teams (regular season and conference tournament winner) from one-bid leagues. Since the field expanded to 68, you're seeing this happen frequently. Last year, three of the five 12 seeds fit this bill (the other two 12 seeds were teams that fit No. 2 -- NC State and Xavier -- in a First Four game). THese teams are usually senior-laden and don't get rattled. They're not as talented, to be sure, but they can trump that with the intangibles.

Yes, and your list is also a power ranking. I'd prefer to see type 1, then type 2, and would like to avoid type 3.

[DrumNFeather]

Well, now we have a bad loss. A really bad loss.

[Mormon Red Death]

That loss sealed a 5 seed in the Midwest (KENTUCKY region)

[DrumNFeather]

Illinois St. beat Wichita St. If they can knock off No. Iowa, the bubble will shrink by one.

[DrumNFeather]

Dartmouth beats Yale to force a one game playoff game between Harvard and Yale for the Ivy League crown.

[sancho]

Dartmouth beats Yale to force a one game playoff game between Harvard and Yale for the Ivy League crown.

The ivy league has no business being in the tournament.

[DrumNFeather]

I also failed to mention that Belmont took out Murray St. in the Ohio Valley and punched the first official ticket to the big dance. Does Murray St. land an At-large? Ranked #25 in the AP, #68 in the RPI, no real quality wins, probably not.

[sancho]

I also failed to mention that Belmont took out Murray St. in the Ohio Valley and punched the first official ticket to the big dance. Does Murray St. land an At-large? Ranked #25 in the AP, #68 in the RPI, no real quality wins, probably not.

So dumb. We all agree that Murray is a top 40 team, but we've locked ourselves into a series of numbers. I'm all for numbers, but don't let them push you around.

[DrumNFeather]

So dumb. We all agree that Murray is a top 40 team, but we've locked ourselves into a series of numbers. I'm all for numbers, but don't let them push you around.

Yeah...wouldn't it be interesting if that first four was reserved for small conference teams like Murray St., who have a great season and get knocked off in their conf. tourney instead of the 8th team in the Big 12 or whatever.