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Thread: 2016 Presidential Election

  1. #1351
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    If you're going to write in a republican, it might as well be Paul Ryan. He's the one guy people wanted to run, he can grow a beard, and he wants a simpler tax code.

    My ballot is at a standstill. There isn't a single candidate on the ballot or on the write-in list worth voting for. Sure, I could vote Ryan, Rubio, Kasich or Lieberman etc....but I might as well write in Whittingham because none of those votes will be counted in Utah (or California or Colorado or 30 other states). What a crappy presidential field. HRC is going to win in a landslide anyway I suppose.
    “Children and dogs are as necessary to the welfare of the country as Wall Street and the railroads.” -- Harry S. Truman

    "You never soar so high as when you stoop down to help a child or an animal." -- Jewish Proverb

    "Three-time Pro Bowler Eric Weddle the most versatile, and maybe most intelligent, safety in the game." -- SI, 9/7/15, p. 107.

  2. #1352
    How much has Ryan been damaged this year? I suspect that Trump and Bannon/Breitbart will stay on him perhaps as much as Hilary after the election. If the Repub majority in the house is significantly smaller, he is going to have a delicate balancing act during the next two years, at least.

    P.S. my answer to my own rhetorical question is "maybe a lot,"

  3. #1353
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    It's kind of sad that our first female president will enter the white house in this way. I can't remember if I voted in 2008, but I thought the election night excitement was pretty great. There is none of that feeling now. The media occasionally tries to print something about this being a major milestone for women, but it doesn't carry weight because no one really likes Hillary Clinton. It is ironic that this feminist achievement comes mainly on the strength and fame of Clinton's philandering husband and on the utter ridiculousness of her current opponent.
    I think you're overstating the dislike of Clinton. Your assertion that "no one really likes Hillary Clinton" is not true. Her election will be a big deal for women.

  4. #1354
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangloss View Post
    I think you're overstating the dislike of Clinton. Your assertion that "no one really likes Hillary Clinton" is not true. Her election will be a big deal for women.
    My unscientific, anecdotal and admittedly biased impression, based on discussions with my female colleagues, is that there is a spectrum of Clinton love. On one end are those who are liberal Democrats, especially those closer to HRC's age, who are ecstatic about her becoming POTUS. These are the true believers who see not a single flaw in her. Liberal women around age 40 see her flaws but are so opposed to Trump that they do not care. Millennial women deeply distrust her and like Sanders more but will vote for her. Interestingly, conservative women dislike HRC even more than conservative men do.

    Please cite me in any scholarly papers you write using my research.
    Last edited by LA Ute; 10-25-2016 at 11:49 AM.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  5. #1355
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    That's probably true, but I'm not completely certain. It may be that none of the candidates were viable, but at least Trump was famous and loud, so he floated to the top. There wasn't one strong opponent in the entire crop. Maybe Romney would have been different. He was at least well known, which matters as much (more?) as anything.
    This has more to say about how broken the republican party is. They have no platform, they have no plan, they have no ideas. Their only hope is run around saying, "We are going to fight against Obama!" and "Make America Great Again!".

    They've sold out to the tea party bullcrap and once they win, they do nothing. For example, I will vote against Mike Lee for one reason and one reason only: I pay $500 a month in health care premiums. This year, I took my three kids to the Dr for yearly checkups. $6,000 for three doctor's visits. My reward? I received a letter in the mail that said next year, my premiums will rise to $750 a month.

    Lee has been in office for how many years now? Six years? And all he has done about Obamacare is two bill co-sponsored on abortion.

    Republicans are 100% completely worthless. No bills on the ACA, no bills to break up the monopolies we have in healthcare, the media, etc.

  6. #1356
    Quote Originally Posted by pangloss View Post
    I think you're overstating the dislike of Clinton. Your assertion that "no one really likes Hillary Clinton" is not true. Her election will be a big deal for women.
    I think she will do a very good job. She isn't an idiot. She saw that when her husband actually worked together with the republican Congress, they accomplished a lot. She knows that if she wants to be there for 8 years, she will need the help of Republicans to start fixing things.

    OTOH, Trump, we know nothing about him, other than he has no clue what he is doing, he wants to build a wall, and he thinks America is less great now that we have equal rights, more educated people, less poverty, less crime, less rapes (which this is probably a bad thing in his book). Hell, we have more corps that own and monopolize more of America now. That seems like Trump should like that.

  7. #1357
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Oh, I do too. She's fine. I think this kind of milestone is cool and a deserves better moment that this election can deliver, but she's alright.
    I wonder how much of the lack of fanfare is NOT due to people not liking her, but that Trump is such a sideshow. The "news" organizations aren't there to deliver news. They are there to sell commercials. If 30 mins out of a 42 minute hour long show is about Trump and that brings eyeballs, then that is what they will talk about.

  8. #1358
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Guys, if Trump weren't running, HRC would have the lowest approval rating of any presidential candidate since such approval ratings have been measured. This is just a fact. It's one of the main reasons this election has been so weird and depressing.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  9. #1359
    Administrator U-Ute's Avatar
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    Taking a selfie with your ballot on Election Day could be illegal.

    http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politi...-legal-illegal

  10. #1360
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    I hope you know what I meant. She doesn't poll well. This doesn't feel like the 2008 milestone at all. I think this type of milestone deserves better than this election can give it.
    No one I am aware of has tried to argue that the only reason not to vote for Hillary is sexism.
    "It'd be nice to please everyone but I thought it would be more interesting to have a point of view." -- Oscar Levant

  11. #1361
    Does anybody really believe that this election will be decided by Utah's 6 electoral votes?

    http://federalistpress.com/mormons-d...rt-to-left.php
    "It'd be nice to please everyone but I thought it would be more interesting to have a point of view." -- Oscar Levant

  12. #1362
    Quote Originally Posted by USS Utah View Post
    Does anybody really believe that this election will be decided by Utah's 6 electoral votes?

    http://federalistpress.com/mormons-d...rt-to-left.php
    I wonder what the Federalist Press is.

  13. #1363
    Administrator U-Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Irving Washington View Post
    I wonder what the Federalist Press is.

    Broken apparently.

    broken.jpg

    I wonder if it is suffering from the Mormon version of the Reddit "hug of death".

  14. #1364
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by USS Utah View Post
    Does anybody really believe that this election will be decided by Utah's 6 electoral votes?

    http://federalistpress.com/mormons-d...rt-to-left.php
    I think some McMullin voters do. Maybe that makes them feel better about casting a meaningless vote that "sends a message." I'd respect them more if they simply stated that they're trying to stop Trump by taking electoral votes away from him, instead of saying they really believe McMullin can and should win. That's absurd.


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    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  15. #1365
    Administrator U-Ute's Avatar
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    According to the Federal Election Commission filings, Donald Trump's presidential campaign has spent $1.8 million on polling from June 2015 through September of this year (the most recent month for which data are available). The report also lists $3.2 million spent on hats.


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...an-on-polling/

    The manufacturer, Ace Specialties, is owned by Christl Mahfouz, a board member on Eric Trump's charitable foundation.
    https://news.vice.com/article/trumps...n-his-campaign
    Last edited by U-Ute; 10-25-2016 at 08:22 PM.

  16. #1366
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    Guys, if Trump weren't running, HRC would have the lowest approval rating of any presidential candidate since such approval ratings have been measured. This is just a fact. It's one of the main reasons this election has been so weird and depressing.
    When Sec. Clinton left office at State, her approval was really high - +60%. I don't think her approval rating fall is due to folks getting to know her - she's well known - or her campaign was singularly awful - although it hasn't been great. Between the recurring attempt to hang Benghazi around her neck, inflating the email issue into a 'scandal', and tying the 'untrustworthy' tag to her the constant barrage by Congressional Republicans has been effective and achieved its desired result. It's been an unprecedented smear campaign. The motivation to prevent her election looks like it will fail.

    pasted image 0.png

  17. #1367
    And thus it begins…

    Many elderly people who’ve begun voting using automated systems with touchscreens are complaining that their vote they selected actually selected the other candidate. We’ve all been there, be it video poker in Wendover, touchscreens at the ATM or similar situations where your touch doesn’t represent your target. It happens.

    When these elderly people finally get the correct selection confidence is already gone. At this point they cannot trust the computer. Why should they? I fully expect this to explode in the face of the election process. I’m going to predict that once Trump loses in two weeks and these aged crazies get vocal they will demand an unprecedented re-poll. Due to overwhelming pressure and the threat of a Trump litigation the election results will be scrapped for the conventional hanging chad type ballot, left to little old lady clerks to count one by one. Many outraged by the process fail to turn out to the re-poll and Trump wins in a landslide.

    Both Trump and Clinton show up to the inauguration in January and civil war erupts. Get some good popcorn, it’s going to be a hell of a show.

  18. #1368
    Man, are the baby boomers the worst generation ever?

  19. #1369
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    I think some McMullin voters do. Maybe that makes them feel better about casting a meaningless vote that "sends a message." I'd respect them more if they simply stated that they're trying to stop Trump by taking electoral votes away from him, instead of saying they really believe McMullin can and should win. That's absurd.


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    I think the Mormon vote McMullin crowd (and I don't know of any other people interested in him) are reinforcing the idea that Mormonism is cultish. Nobody knows anything about the guy or what his policies are. His only credentials seem to be: 1) I'm Mormon, 2) I'm not Trump, and 3) I'm a Republican. He's the guy trying to get you to invest in something who thinks you will be impressed when he tells you he's a Mormon and some of his investors are the Bishop and Stake President.

  20. #1370
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Utah View Post
    Man, are the baby boomers the worst generation ever?
    I have long thought so. But millennials are giving us a run for our money.


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    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  21. #1371
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    2016 Presidential Election

    Quote Originally Posted by UTEopia View Post
    I think the Mormon vote McMullin crowd (and I don't know of any other people interested in him) are reinforcing the idea that Mormonism is cultish. Nobody knows anything about the guy or what his policies are. His only credentials seem to be: 1) I'm Mormon, 2) I'm not Trump, and 3) I'm a Republican. He's the guy trying to get you to invest in something who thinks you will be impressed when he tells you he's a Mormon and some of his investors are the Bishop and Stake President.
    I agree. It is embarrassing.


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    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  22. #1372
    Five-O Diehard Ute's Avatar
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    Jason Chafetz announces he isn't endorsing Trump but will vote for him, basically endorsing Trump.


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  23. #1373
    Quote Originally Posted by UTEopia View Post
    I think the Mormon vote McMullin crowd (and I don't know of any other people interested in him) are reinforcing the idea that Mormonism is cultish. Nobody knows anything about the guy or what his policies are. His only credentials seem to be: 1) I'm Mormon, 2) I'm not Trump, and 3) I'm a Republican. He's the guy trying to get you to invest in something who thinks you will be impressed when he tells you he's a Mormon and some of his investors are the Bishop and Stake President.
    This seems to be the view of the locals but nationally people seem to see it as Mormons giving Trump and Hillary the bird. People tend to vote for people like them anyway. Obama obviously did well among African Americans (and apparently and more specifically Kenyan Americans), Hillary does well with women and Mitt Romney did among people with fabulous hair (and Mormons).

    I heard an interview with him, he knows he can't win and was dismissive of the whole "if this goes to the house to decide..." scenario. He did say something I thought was pretty profound though, that he was running to show there are millions of Americans out there better qualified to be president than the two candidates we have.

    I didn't vote for him, but I'd love to see him win the state. It would be kind of a referendum to the Republican Party that it's most ardent supporters can't even stand with scumbags.


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  24. #1374
    Chaffetz pulls his endorsement of Trump but then says he is voting for him... isn't that worse?


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  25. #1375
    Five-O Diehard Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rocker Ute View Post
    This seems to be the view of the locals but nationally people seem to see it as Mormons giving Trump and Hillary the bird. People tend to vote for people like them anyway. Obama obviously did well among African Americans (and apparently and more specifically Kenyan Americans), Hillary does well with women and Mitt Romney did among people with fabulous hair (and Mormons).

    I heard an interview with him, he knows he can't win and was dismissive of the whole "if this goes to the house to decide..." scenario. He did say something I thought was pretty profound though, that he was running to show there are millions of Americans out there better qualified to be president than the two candidates we have.

    I didn't vote for him, but I'd love to see him win the state. It would be kind of a referendum to the Republican Party that it's most ardent supporters can't even stand with scumbags.


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    I think what's somewhat unique is that people who are Mormon, especially in Utah, keep a list of who else is Mormon.

    As I've said before, I was raised Presbyterian. I couldn't tell you a single politician who was also Presbyterian. Wasn't something that was ever thought about, let alone discussed.

    The only "celebrity" who I know was Presbyterian was Mr Rogers, and that's only because he was an ordained minister.

    How many other places have a newspaper, owned by a church, that routinely runs stories listing those "noteworthy" people who are part of that church? It's pretty unique.

    Someone's race or gender isn't something they have to disclose or you're going to have to research to find. (In the cases you cited at least). Their religion is. McMullin is unique that way. (So was Romney)



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  26. #1376
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Anyway, the point is that if McMullin wins, Utah will be the only red state that put principle over party. I hope it happens.
    I'd feel better about it if McMullin were not a Mormon.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  27. #1377
    Five-O Diehard Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Yeah, but there are many places where a candidate has to be protestant in order to have a chance.

    Anyway, the point is that if McMullin wins, Utah will be the only red state that put principle over party. I hope it happens.
    If Utah was really putting principle over party we wouldn't have Jason Chafetz, Mike Lee and Mia Love


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  28. #1378
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    I'd feel better about it if McMullin were not a Mormon.
    And I'd feel better about McMormon if he weren't a Mullin.

  29. #1379
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Maybe so. I don't know anything about those three. I am guessing (hoping?) that they are not Trump-like but are rather just party politicians (so despicable, but not disgustingly so).

    So, yeah, this is only one election, but I am actually proud of my home state Utah for not supporting Trump. I have rarely felt close to Utah valley mormons in anything, and I almost always cringe at the way they represent my faith, but I'm glad they didn't get on the Trump bandwagon.
    The gates to elective office in Utah are interesting. Starting from the general election and going back in time, I think the gates are 1) political party, 2) fanaticism, 3) religious history & standing, 4) county, and 5) religion.

    So, (1) if you have an R next to your name, you win. (2) To get the R party nomination, the most politically fanatic candidate wins at the convention. The R primary election is perfunctory and meaningless. (3) To get enough signatures to get on the R convention agenda, the candidate must be LDS in great, not just good, standing, have one wife (or one husband, on occasion), have at least four kids (one adopted dark race kid is a plus), and be a RM. (4) State-wide elections are won by residents of Utah county. Congressional elections are won by candidates who lived in Utah county for at least two years of their life. (5) State-wide and Congressional district elections are won by LDS folks.

    There are exceptions to these gates, but they're rare and are a lot more rare now than 30 or 40 years ago. This is all just my opinion, but I think it's not far off.

    Oh, and I think it would be easier for a LDS person to get elected to Congress in California (1.98% of the population is LDS) than a non-LDS person to get elected to Congress in Utah (68.1% of the population is LDS). But I'm biased, live in Rep. Chaffetz' district and suffer from a persecution complex.
    Last edited by pangloss; 10-27-2016 at 12:26 PM.

  30. #1380
    Quote Originally Posted by pangloss View Post
    The gates to elective office in Utah are interesting. Starting from the general election and going back in time, I think the gates are 1) political party, 2) fanaticism, 3) religious history & standing, 4) county, and 5) religion.

    So, (1) if you have an R next to your name, you win. (2) To get the R party nomination, the most politically fanatic candidate wins at the convention. The R primary election is perfunctory and meaningless. (3) To get enough signatures to get on the R convention agenda, the candidate must be LDS in great, not just good, standing, have one wife (or one husband, on occasion), have at least four kids (one adopted dark race kid is a plus), and be a RM. (4) State-wide elections are won by residents of Utah county. Congressional elections are won by candidates who lived in Utah county for at least two years of their life. (5) State-wide and Congressional district elections are won by LDS folks.

    There are exceptions to these gates, but they're rare and are a lot more rare now than 30 or 40 years ago. This is all just my opinion, but I think it's not far off.

    Oh, and I think it would be easier for a LDS person to get elected to Congress in California (1.98% of the population is LDS) than a non-LDS person to get elected to Congress in Utah (68.1% of the population is LDS). But I'm biased, live in Rep. Chaffetz' district and suffer from a persecution complex.
    Haha. Thank you. This makes the burden lighter of tolerating the other end of the spectrum theocracy here in Western Washington.
    One thing I have learned in a long life: that all our science, measured against reality, is primitive and childlike -- and yet it is the most precious thing we have.

    --Albert Einstein

    The fact that life evolved out of nearly nothing, some 10 billion years after the universe evolved out of literally nothing, is a fact so staggering that I would be mad to attempt words to do it justice.

    --Richard Dawkins

    Be kind to all, for everyone you meet is fighting a great battle.

    --Philo

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