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Thread: Holiday Destinations 2015 - 2016 Bowl Games

  1. #1

    Holiday Destinations 2015 - 2016 Bowl Games

    I wrote in another thread about this scenario that while possible would be highly unlikely:

    How about this scenario. Mich st loses to Iowa. Stanford beats usc and makes the playoff. Rose Bowl has to choose between 3 loss Oregon (rematch with Mich st) 5 loss usc, 4 loss wash st or Utah.


    Here is what would have to happen:
    Stanford beat USC convincingly
    Mich st lose to Iowa
    Either Clemson or Bama or both lose

    Stanford is ranked 9 right now. they just beat 6 and 7 lost yesterday. 8 is ohio state but does not play again. 5 is Mich st and 4 is Iowa. Beat USC and hope Unc or Florida provide an upset.

    Lets say that unlikely scenario doesnt happen but Stanford still beats USC. That means they go to Rose. Oregon is probably going Fiesta.

    Alamo chooses between Utah, USC, Wazzu & UCLA (all within one conference of one another) Lets say they take USC
    Holiday chooses between Utah Wazzu and UCLA (probably UCLA)
    Foster Farms chooses between Utah and Wazzu (probably Utah)
    Sun Bowl - gets Wazzu

    If USC beats stanford. Then assume Stanford goes to Fiesta,
    Alamo chooses between Utah, Wazzu and Oreggon Oregon (Cant pick UCLA above Oregon)
    Holiday chooses between Utah Wazzu and UCLA (probably UCLA)
    Foster Farms chooses between Utah and Wazzu (probably Utah)
    Sun Bowl - gets Wazzu

    My prediction.. Foster Farms vs Indiana
    "Be a philosopher. A man can compromise to gain a point. It has become apparent that a man can, within limits, follow his inclinations within the arms of the Church if he does so discreetly." - The Walking Drum

    "And here’s what life comes down to—not how many years you live, but how many of those years are filled with bullshit that doesn’t amount to anything to satisfy the requirements of some dickhead you’ll never get the pleasure of punching in the face." – Adam Carolla

  2. #2
    Some of our acquaintances who cheer for the BYU are convinced that there will be a Utah/BYU matchup in Vegas.
    "Ninety feet between home plate and first base may be the closest man has ever come to perfection." - Red Smith

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    The one guy in my ward who talks to me about BYU has been dreaming about it all season. He's certain that Espn will arrange it. He's going to be very disappointed if it doesn't happen.
    Here's to his being disappointed.
    "Ninety feet between home plate and first base may be the closest man has ever come to perfection." - Red Smith

  4. #4
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    GarthUte, it's good to see you here!


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  5. #5
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Wilner on Twitter thinks wsu gets picked ahead of Utah.
    The argument for them is that they're more exciting to watch.


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    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  6. #6
    Vegas has the #6 pick, and we have the 5th best record.

    For us it's Holiday in SD, Foster Farm in SF/Santa Clara, or Sun Bowl in El Paso.

    Unless there is some horse trading between bowls to get Vegas for Utah so we can get more fans there, it will be California or El Paso.

    I know it's a haul for Utes, but the Sun Bowl was the 3rd best bowl we've been to, in my opinion. The people in El Paso are justified in being proud of that event, they do a *great* job of hosting the game and related events, people stream in from all around to see it, CBS has been televising it forever... it's much better than LV, or Poinsettia, or Emerald (in AT&T Park, any way). Put it another way, the payout is $4M.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Ma'ake View Post
    Vegas has the #6 pick, and we have the 5th best record.

    For us it's Holiday in SD, Foster Farm in SF/Santa Clara, or Sun Bowl in El Paso.

    Unless there is some horse trading between bowls to get Vegas for Utah so we can get more fans there, it will be California or El Paso.

    I know it's a haul for Utes, but the Sun Bowl was the 3rd best bowl we've been to, in my opinion. The people in El Paso are justified in being proud of that event, they do a *great* job of hosting the game and related events, people stream in from all around to see it, CBS has been televising it forever... it's much better than LV, or Poinsettia, or Emerald (in AT&T Park, any way). Put it another way, the payout is $4M.
    i started looking at plane fares from slc to El Paso. $500+ Looks like only American flies there from here. ☹️
    "Don't apologize; it's not your fault. It's my fault for overestimating your competence."

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by hostile View Post
    i started looking at plane fares from slc to El Paso. $500+ Looks like only American flies there from here. ☹️
    Last time we flew into Albuquerque, which is an easy 3 hour drive, and if you like Breaking Bad, all kinds of sites and vistas.

  9. #9
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hostile View Post
    i started looking at plane fares from slc to El Paso. $500+ Looks like only American flies there from here. ☹️
    Maybe some enterprising travel agent can put together some charters.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  10. #10
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ma'ake View Post
    Last time we flew into Albuquerque, which is an easy 3 hour drive, and if you like Breaking Bad, all kinds of sites and vistas.
    True. Southwest flies into Albuquerque.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Ma'ake View Post
    Last time we flew into Albuquerque, which is an easy 3 hour drive, and if you like Breaking Bad, all kinds of sites and vistas.
    Not a bad idea. Thanks.
    "Don't apologize; it's not your fault. It's my fault for overestimating your competence."

  12. #12
    From what I've read (which is mostly just off of twitter and utezone), Utah is very unlikely to fall past the Sun Bowl. While Alamo, Holiday and Foster Farms all have some flexibility in who they can take (they can take teams in any order but can't take a team that was more than a game worse in conference than the best available team), the Sun Bowl is required to take the best remaining team. I think the order looks like this:
    1. Stanford
    2. USC
    3. Oregon
    4. Utah
    5. Wazzu
    6. UCLA

    Utah and Washington State have identical conference records which put them in a tie for 4th, but Utah holds the tiebreaker by virtue of better overall record and higher CFP ranking. The only way I can see for Utah to drop to Vegas is if some bowl loves UCLA (could happen--brand name, marketable players) and nobody wants USC (seems very unlikely). Here's how it would have to work:

    1. Stanford beats USC (would probably have to be pretty convincing)
    2. Stanford is left out of playoff (this is likely in any case)
    3. Stanford to Rose Bowl
    4. Oregon to Alamo Bowl (lots of speculation that Alamo loves Oregon)
    5. UCLA/Wazzu to Holiday Bowl (speculation that Holiday may like Wazzu because of its offense and the novelty of them being good will bring a lot of fans, UCLA seems like a bad fit that would sell some tickets but wouldn't do anything for local hotels, USC played here last year so they may not want them again)
    6. UCLA/Wazzu to Foster Farms Bowl (speculation that Foster Farms wouldn't want to bring USC back to Santa Clara after they've just played there in the PAC 12 CCG)
    7. Sun Bowl would then have to take USC has the top remaining PAC 12 team (winning the tiebreaker over Utah based on head to head/division win)
    8. Please Chris Hill do the right thing and decline the Vegas Bowl (there is a clause that allows teams to opt out from back-to-back appearances in the same bowl) as there is no upside to Utah going to Vegas again and playing in the Cactus Bowl against a Big 12 opponent would be much more fun and interesting

    So that's the one scenario. I just don't see USC becoming so unattractive that it drops so far. In fact, I think it is more likely that USC beats Stanford, goes to the Rose while Stanford goes to the Fiesta and then there is no possible scenario for Utah to drop beyond the Sun Bowl.

    My prediction:
    Rose-Stanford
    Alamo-Oregon
    Holiday-Wazzu
    Foster Farms-Utah
    Sun-USC
    Vegas-UCLA
    Cactus-ASU

    Holiday, Foster Farms and Sun could all shuffle. I don't see UCLA being attractive enough to jump up above USC, Wazzu or Utah for either of the California bowls and the Sun can't take them ahead of any of those teams.

  13. #13
    Uniform Fashion Expert HuskyFreeNorthwest's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    I read there's also an outside chance at Oregon going to the Fiesta bowl. What are the rules for NY6 selections?
    Looking very unlikely, but outside hopes are still around. I've been told that if I want to book travel to San Antonio it would be 99.8% safe.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Well, San Antone is nicer than Tempe anyway.
    Really?

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by UBlender View Post
    From what I've read (which is mostly just off of twitter and utezone), Utah is very unlikely to fall past the Sun Bowl. While Alamo, Holiday and Foster Farms all have some flexibility in who they can take (they can take teams in any order but can't take a team that was more than a game worse in conference than the best available team), the Sun Bowl is required to take the best remaining team. I think the order looks like this:
    1. Stanford
    2. USC
    3. Oregon
    4. Utah
    5. Wazzu
    6. UCLA

    Utah and Washington State have identical conference records which put them in a tie for 4th, but Utah holds the tiebreaker by virtue of better overall record and higher CFP ranking. The only way I can see for Utah to drop to Vegas is if some bowl loves UCLA (could happen--brand name, marketable players) and nobody wants USC (seems very unlikely). Here's how it would have to work:

    1. Stanford beats USC (would probably have to be pretty convincing)
    2. Stanford is left out of playoff (this is likely in any case)
    3. Stanford to Rose Bowl
    4. Oregon to Alamo Bowl (lots of speculation that Alamo loves Oregon)
    5. UCLA/Wazzu to Holiday Bowl (speculation that Holiday may like Wazzu because of its offense and the novelty of them being good will bring a lot of fans, UCLA seems like a bad fit that would sell some tickets but wouldn't do anything for local hotels, USC played here last year so they may not want them again)
    6. UCLA/Wazzu to Foster Farms Bowl (speculation that Foster Farms wouldn't want to bring USC back to Santa Clara after they've just played there in the PAC 12 CCG)
    7. Sun Bowl would then have to take USC has the top remaining PAC 12 team (winning the tiebreaker over Utah based on head to head/division win)
    8. Please Chris Hill do the right thing and decline the Vegas Bowl (there is a clause that allows teams to opt out from back-to-back appearances in the same bowl) as there is no upside to Utah going to Vegas again and playing in the Cactus Bowl against a Big 12 opponent would be much more fun and interesting

    So that's the one scenario. I just don't see USC becoming so unattractive that it drops so far. In fact, I think it is more likely that USC beats Stanford, goes to the Rose while Stanford goes to the Fiesta and then there is no possible scenario for Utah to drop beyond the Sun Bowl.

    My prediction:
    Rose-Stanford
    Alamo-Oregon
    Holiday-Wazzu
    Foster Farms-Utah
    Sun-USC
    Vegas-UCLA
    Cactus-ASU

    Holiday, Foster Farms and Sun could all shuffle. I don't see UCLA being attractive enough to jump up above USC, Wazzu or Utah for either of the California bowls and the Sun can't take them ahead of any of those teams.
    You are missing that Oregon has a good shot at a NY 6 bowl. That changes the structure.

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    "Be a philosopher. A man can compromise to gain a point. It has become apparent that a man can, within limits, follow his inclinations within the arms of the Church if he does so discreetly." - The Walking Drum

    "And here’s what life comes down to—not how many years you live, but how many of those years are filled with bullshit that doesn’t amount to anything to satisfy the requirements of some dickhead you’ll never get the pleasure of punching in the face." – Adam Carolla

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Mormon Red Death View Post
    You are missing that Oregon has a good shot at a NY 6 bowl. That changes the structure.

    Sent from my SM-G900T using Tapatalk
    Well, I was mainly locking in on worst case scenarios, basically trying to show that Utah vs BYU in Vegas is only a remote possibility. There are several scenarios that can improve things and bump Utah up (Stanford making the playoff, USC or Oregon making the NY6, etc).

  17. #17
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    I really want the Holiday Bowl. We never played in it when we were in the WAC/MWC and we'd likely get a name Big 10 opponent that's whippable.

    Vegas would be OK so long as it's not BYU. I don't have anything against playing BYU -- I'm not in that crowd -- but we do play them in 9 months. I think the Veg has no choice but to take that into consideration.

    Foster Farms vs. Indiana? Quadruple meh. I'd much rather have the Sun Bowl, even if it's against Pittsburgh, which Stuart Mandel at Foxsports currently has projected.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by SoCalPat View Post
    I really want the Holiday Bowl. We never played in it when we were in the WAC/MWC and we'd likely get a name Big 10 opponent that's whippable.

    Vegas would be OK so long as it's not BYU. I don't have anything against playing BYU -- I'm not in that crowd -- but we do play them in 9 months. I think the Veg has no choice but to take that into consideration.

    Foster Farms vs. Indiana? Quadruple meh. I'd much rather have the Sun Bowl, even if it's against Pittsburgh, which Stuart Mandel at Foxsports currently has projected.
    B/c we played in Vegas last year, we can opt out, I have read. Would C Hill play that card? I suppose it depends on the alternative. I would hope so.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by concerned View Post
    B/c we played in Vegas last year, we can opt out, I have read. Would C Hill play that card? I suppose it depends on the alternative. I would hope so.
    I think Chris' hands are tied here. Opting out likely gives us an easier opponent, in a more distant locale, than what we would face in BYU. You can bet if we got any other MWC team, even Air Force, that we wouldn't opt out. Why would we opt out of playing BYU? Yes, you could cite playing again in 9 months, but if you play BYU in a bowl, that 2-year break doesn't look so egregious anymore. Also, a lot of the reasons fans put forth for not playing BYU simply don't apply here. There's no post-BYU letdown to worry about, no injuries that compromise us going forward, no playing in Provo, etc.

    I really want the Holiday Bowl. I really hope we're campaigning for it behind the scenes. Smart athletic departments do that kind of thing. We would easily bring 25,000 fans to that game.

  20. #20
    Stewart mandel projects us to the Sun Bowl, and USC to Vegas, for a varierty of reasons (including the fact that they completely offended the Sun Bowl last time they were there.)

    However, I think there is a pretty good likelihood that USC will beat Stanford. That would rearrange everything.

    http://www.foxsports.com/college-foo...playoff-120115

  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Why do you think this? Stanford looks like the clear best team in the conference to me. If it happens, we have to hope that a 3 loss Stanford could still sneak into the Fiesta bowl over teams like Baylor.
    Just because USC has been playing well, destroyed UCLA, and Stanford gave up a lot of points and almost lost to ND. Stanford could have a let down after that game. FWIW.

  22. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    If the alternative is a P5 opponent, I think he could get away with it since we are about to play BYU. It would be fun to read media reactions.

    I keep reading bowl projections, and I have to remind myself that these people spend an hour thinking about who would be selected for NY6 bowls and then a total of 3 minutes filling in the rest of the slots. How hard have they thought about who the holiday, foster farms, or sun bowls would pick out of Utah, WSU, UCLA, USC?

    Worst case scenario for Utah:

    Rose: Stanford
    Alamo: Oregon
    Holiday: WSU/USC
    Foster Farms: USC/WSU
    Sun: UCLA picked over Utah
    Vegas; Utah

    Best case is if we have 2 NY6, which could be a playoff + Rose or Rose+Fiesta:

    Playoff: Stanford
    Rose: Oregon
    Alamo: Utah/USC/WSU
    Holiday: Utah/USC/WSU
    FF: Utah/USC/WSU
    Sun: UCLA
    Vegas: ASU?UW?Zona?Cal?
    The Sun Bowl cannot pick UCLA ahead of us, because we are ahead of then in the standings. The Sun, Vegas, and Cactus bowls must follow conference standings
    “Man cannot discover new oceans unless he has the courage to lose sight of the shore.”
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  23. #23
    Is the Fiesta Bowl locked in to certain conferences?

    if not & Oregon & Ohio St both not chosen for Rose (Iowa vs. Stanford??); then that would be a Big TV draw.

  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    I'm confused then. What is the scenario in which we go Vegas? I thought the Sun and Vegas could go +/- 1 in the standings.
    The Alamo, Holiday and Foster Farms can go +/-1 in the standings. The Sun, Vegas and Cactus cannot do that. The only scenario that puts Utah in Vegas is if Holiday or Foster Farms get a major boner for UCLA and pass on USC. Wazzu also has to be chosen before USC. The Sun would have to take USC over Utah by virtue of the tiebreaker. Otherwise, Utah will be gone before then.

    Several of the SLC media types have contacted bowl officials. Nobody commits to anything but it sounds like the feeling is Utah will be selected even before the Sun Bowl. Foster Farms is my guess.

  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Old Standing ute View Post
    Is the Fiesta Bowl locked in to certain conferences?

    if not & Oregon & Ohio St both not chosen for Rose (Iowa vs. Stanford??); then that would be a Big TV draw.
    I keep reading OSU v. ND in the Fiesta

  26. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Why do you think this? Stanford looks like the clear best team in the conference to me. If it happens, we have to hope that a 3 loss Stanford could still sneak into the Fiesta bowl over teams like Baylor.
    Notre Dame is almost certainly Fiesta-bound (it's only other option is the Peach), and as a result, Stanford is a lock to be shut out of the Fiesta. It's Rose or Alamo for the Cardinal.

  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Old Standing ute View Post
    Is the Fiesta Bowl locked in to certain conferences?

    if not & Oregon & Ohio St both not chosen for Rose (Iowa vs. Stanford??); then that would be a Big TV draw.
    No. It will pick from the at-large pool, and after having Boise State last year, will likely not have to take the G5 rep this year. Ohio State-Notre Dame seems like a very real possibility.

  28. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Notre Dame ruins a lot of stuff for the Pac-12. If not for the Irish, we would have an annual Pac-12/Big10 challenge built into our OOC schedule. Now this. Stupid Irish. Ruin schedules like a champion today.
    It would have died anyway when the Big 10 expanded to 14.

  29. #29
    Administrator U-Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Notre Dame ruins a lot of stuff for the Pac-12. If not for the Irish, we would have an annual Pac-12/Big10 challenge built into our OOC schedule. Now this. Stupid Irish. Ruin schedules like a champion today.
    See. Now there's a good reason to hate a school.

  30. #30
    The NY6 bowls don't choose teams, do they? I think the committee chooses them? Or does the committee choose who gets in, and then the bowls with at-large spots take turns selecting the approved schools?

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