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Thread: 2016 Utah Football Season - Overall

  1. #151
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    Scott Mitchell made an interesting comment today on Riley's show. He said he thinks Utah is better than all the teams they have played, and that the Utes play just well enough to beat all those teams. He was not being critical; in fact, he lauded KW as one of the best coaches in the PAC-12, if not the best. I just thought that was insightful, coming from perceptive and experienced eyes.


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    Scott is a good guest. I enjoy hearing what his seasoned eyes see.

  2. #152
    Senior Member justaute's Avatar
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    Thanks for sharing. Good to know.

    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    Scott Mitchell made an interesting comment today on Riley's show. He said he thinks Utah is better than all the teams they have played, and that the Utes play just well enough to beat all those teams. He was not being critical; in fact, he lauded KW as one of the best coaches in the PAC-12, if not the best. I just thought that was insightful, coming from perceptive and experienced eyes.


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  3. #153
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by justaute View Post
    Thanks for sharing. Good to know.
    He did say he wished they'd just blow people out more often -- it seemed like he thought so because it would help team morale.


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    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  4. #154
    I do feel like there are a lot of Ute fans with very short memories right now. We are all forgetting that Utah has had a solid offense for most of the season and was leading the PAC 12 in chunk plays prior to last week.

    Maybe it's PTSD or just recency bias but I get the sense that a lot of Ute fans look at the OSU game and think "same old Ute offense is back" rather than realizing that game is a very distinct outlier to the season as a whole.

    (Before you start, I'm not arguing that Utah's offense is amazing, but it's been a lot better than other PAC 12 years, with the exception of the last game).

  5. #155
    I agree with UBlender. Our offense has gotten better every year under ARod.

    Yeah, we aren't WSU or Cal offensively...but we are better than we were last year and a lot better than we were 4 years ago and we win a lot more games as well.

  6. #156
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UBlender View Post
    I do feel like there are a lot of Ute fans with very short memories right now. We are all forgetting that Utah has had a solid offense for most of the season and was leading the PAC 12 in chunk plays prior to last week.

    Maybe it's PTSD or just recency bias but I get the sense that a lot of Ute fans look at the OSU game and think "same old Ute offense is back" rather than realizing that game is a very distinct outlier to the season as a whole.

    (Before you start, I'm not arguing that Utah's offense is amazing, but it's been a lot better than other PAC 12 years, with the exception of the last game).
    I agree. OSU was the exception this season. (We're still last in the conference in the red zone -- both on offense and defense. I don't think that's the coordinators' doing, however.)

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  7. #157
    Malleus Cougarorum Solon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UBlender View Post
    I do feel like there are a lot of Ute fans with very short memories right now. We are all forgetting that Utah has had a solid offense for most of the season and was leading the PAC 12 in chunk plays prior to last week..
    I don't think people are down on the offense in its entirety; they're down on the red-zone, 4th-and-short stuff. At least, that's what I am down on. Not necessarily that there are struggles; just that the same struggles are still unsolved.
    σοφῷ ἀνδρὶ Ἑλλὰς πάντα.
    -- Flavius Philostratus, Life of Apollonius 1.35.2.

  8. #158
    Quote Originally Posted by Solon View Post
    I don't think people are down on the offense in its entirety; they're down on the red-zone, 4th-and-short stuff. At least, that's what I am down on. Not necessarily that there are struggles; just that the same struggles are still unsolved.
    The fourth down failures shouldn't surprise anyone that watched Utah last year. Joe Williams showed that he was an adequate backup to devontae except for two things: 1. His tendency to fumble twice a game and 2. His short yardage production. Moss is better, but a true freshman. With no threat of a qb keep, we struggle on 3rd and 4th and short.

  9. #159
    Malleus Cougarorum Solon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Applejack View Post
    The fourth down failures shouldn't surprise anyone that watched Utah last year. Joe Williams showed that he was an adequate backup to devontae except for two things: 1. His tendency to fumble twice a game and 2. His short yardage production. Moss is better, but a true freshman. With no threat of a qb keep, we struggle on 3rd and 4th and short.
    Of course we aren't surprised, but this why there are highly paid coaches. There are plenty of ways to capitalize on the team's advantages. Misdirection (out of a 2-back set?), counter-plays (including the shuffle pass), and a bunch of other stuff should be on the table. I am not going to second-guess the coaches, who obviously know more than I, but I am going to notice that the same problems seem to have recurred this season with consequences. On the other hand, I also ascribe to the philosophy that it shouldn't matter if the other team knows the play, when only inches are needed.

    I don't know the answer, but I would like to see improvement. Not perfection, just improvement - like a Troy selling out for the end zone last week.
    σοφῷ ἀνδρὶ Ἑλλὰς πάντα.
    -- Flavius Philostratus, Life of Apollonius 1.35.2.

  10. #160
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Solon View Post
    Of course we aren't surprised, but this why there are highly paid coaches. There are plenty of ways to capitalize on the team's advantages. Misdirection (out of a 2-back set?), counter-plays (including the shuffle pass), and a bunch of other stuff should be on the table. I am not going to second-guess the coaches, who obviously know more than I, but I am going to notice that the same problems seem to have recurred this season with consequences. On the other hand, I also ascribe to the philosophy that it shouldn't matter if the other team knows the play, when only inches are needed.

    I don't know the answer, but I would like to see improvement. Not perfection, just improvement - like a Troy selling out for the end zone last week.
    I have a theory about red zone production. On a statistical level, at least, we have performed poorly in the red zone all season long, on both offense and defense (and not just against Oregon State -- we ranked last in the PAC-12 in both categories going into the OSU game). And yet we are doing well and winning games. It's remarkable that we are dead last in both categories and that we are winning anyway.

    Perhaps our low statistical red zone ranking is because of Utah's quintessentially conservative approach to the game. We don't try fancy stuff in the red zone on either offense or defense because the stakes are higher there -- mistakes can be disastrous. So we are not generating great red zone numbers because we don't care about flash as much as we do about grinding out a win. This is not a criticism, just an effort to describe Kyle's style and its impact on red zone production.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  11. #161
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    2016 Utah Football Season - Overall

    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    If you take away the turnovers and the bad snaps, how much does our red zone percentage change? It must be significant. Not sure if that means anything. I guess execution is as big a deal as play calling down there.
    A person with too much time on his hands could go through each red zone opportunity this season and break down how it ended. Might be very interesting. Bottom line is we are having a hard time finishing on offense, and stopping other teams from finishing when we are on defense.


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    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  12. #162
    We are 26/35 in redzone opportunities.

    We have 18 TD's, 13 rush, 5 pass.

    We are 8/9 on FG's.

    We've thrown two INT's, three TO's on downs, three lost possessions on "other" and zero fumbles (according to the PAC-12 website). That adds up to 8 TO's plus the missed FG.

    I think our biggest issue is missed FG's slash not attempting FG's. We've lost the ball three times on downs. Normally, we'd kick the FG in that situation. If we had, and Phillips hit all three, we would be 29/35 or 83% or 8th in the PAC-12. Better, but we still have issues.

    I can remember two fumbles in the redzone and Moeai/Troy missing a TD against Cal. If we had been better on those, we'd be 32/35 or 91% or 3rd in the PAC-12.

    Also, Troy threw those two INT's earlier in the year. So, in some respects we have gotten better. I think we need to start taking the FG's and quit going for it on fourth down as well.

    So, we make WAY too many mistakes, go for fourth down too much, BUT we don't suck, per say. I don't think teams are straight up stopping us (well, on the three fourth downs they are).

    Anyways, there are the stats you wanted.
    Last edited by Utah; 10-18-2016 at 10:21 PM.

  13. #163
    Also, our top three tacklers are Chase Hansen, Tauteoli, and Marcus Williams.

    Those injuries are huge for us. Dang.

  14. #164
    Handsome Boy Graduate mpfunk's Avatar
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    I heard an interview with Whittingham the other day. He was talking about them hiring an analytics firm for 4th down decisions. I'm thrilled that they are doing this and it explains why we are going for it on 4th so much more.

    As long as Utah is sticking to the analytics each and every time for 4th down decisions, I'm thrilled with this approach and won't question any of the calls to go for it on 4th. This stuff works, as long as you stick to it and don't deviate.
    Last edited by mpfunk; 10-21-2016 at 10:15 AM.
    So I said to David Eckstein, "You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
    --fjm.com

  15. #165
    Quote Originally Posted by mpfunk View Post
    I heard and interview with Whittingham the other day. He was talking about them hiring an analytics firm for 4th down decisions. I'm thrilled that they are doing this and it explains why we are going for it on 4th so much more.

    As long as Utah is sticking to the analytics each and every time for 4th down decisions, I'm thrilled with this approach and won't question any of the calls to go for it on 4th. This stuff works, as long as you stick to it and don't deviate.
    I cannot tell if you are being sarcastic or not. Do we really want to pay a coach 3+ million a year to turn his decision making over to a computer? I like using analytics for the information, but I still want the coach to use his 'gut' to make the call.

  16. #166
    Handsome Boy Graduate mpfunk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sullyute View Post
    I cannot tell if you are being sarcastic or not. Do we really want to pay a coach 3+ million a year to turn his decision making over to a computer? I like using analytics for the information, but I still want the coach to use his 'gut' to make the call.
    Not being sarcastic at all. Yes, on these type of things we should turn the decision making over to a computer. I'm not saying that everything can be decided by analytics, but things like going for it on 4th down are absolutely something that you rely on the numbers and use them in every circumstance.

    I'm not a big fan in any sport of "guts" making these calls.
    So I said to David Eckstein, "You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
    --fjm.com

  17. #167
    Quote Originally Posted by mpfunk View Post
    Not being sarcastic at all. Yes, on these type of things we should turn the decision making over to a computer. I'm not saying that everything can be decided by analytics, but things like going for it on 4th down are absolutely something that you rely on the numbers and use them in every circumstance.

    I'm not a big fan in any sport of "guts" making these calls.
    Analytics should be a guide, the head coaches judgment still needs to be used. Circumstances change. Say we are on the other team's 35 yard line. it is late in the game, and we have two offensive linemen injured, with freshmen replacements. Or our defense is absolutely stifling the other team, and they need a touchdown to win with 2 minutes left. Is the punter a witch and can lad the ball on the 5 yard line 9 out of 10 times? Has the offense struggled in short yardage situations? Have we noticed some tendencies of the defense that we could take advantage of a play action fake?
    “To me there is no dishonor in being wrong and learning. There is dishonor in willful ignorance and there is dishonor in disrespect.” James Hatch, former Navy Seal and current Yale student.

  18. #168
    Quote Originally Posted by chrisrenrut View Post
    Analytics should be a guide, the head coaches judgment still needs to be used. Circumstances change. Say we are on the other team's 35 yard line. it is late in the game, and we have two offensive linemen injured, with freshmen replacements. Or our defense is absolutely stifling the other team, and they need a touchdown to win with 2 minutes left. Is the punter a witch and can lad the ball on the 5 yard line 9 out of 10 times? Has the offense struggled in short yardage situations? Have we noticed some tendencies of the defense that we could take advantage of a play action fake?
    So, another typical week as a Utah football coach/player/fan?

  19. #169
    I wonder what the analytics say about going for it on 4th and 19 from your own 2. OW!

    I sure hope the WiFi is good in the stadium so that when we check with coach computer we don't see a thinking hour glass symbol. Boom!

    Thank you folks, don't for get to tip your waiter.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  20. #170
    Handsome Boy Graduate mpfunk's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chrisrenrut View Post
    Analytics should be a guide, the head coaches judgment still needs to be used. Circumstances change. Say we are on the other team's 35 yard line. it is late in the game, and we have two offensive linemen injured, with freshmen replacements. Or our defense is absolutely stifling the other team, and they need a touchdown to win with 2 minutes left. Is the punter a witch and can lad the ball on the 5 yard line 9 out of 10 times? Has the offense struggled in short yardage situations? Have we noticed some tendencies of the defense that we could take advantage of a play action fake?
    I trust that our coach is using analytics that are advanced enough that it isn't so simple as just "if it is 4th and X on the X yard line, got for it." I'm trusting that he is using something advanced enough to account for score/time left in the game. Obviously, those analytics cannot account for things such as injuries, tendencies, and how the team is playing.

    I still trust numbers more than guts, and if you believe you are getting good enough data, you should use it. The Blackhawks have 3 Stanley Cups by abandoning the gut feeling in favor of the analytics.
    So I said to David Eckstein, "You promised me, Eckstein, that if I followed you, you would walk with me always. But I noticed that during the most trying periods of my life, there have only been one set of prints in the sand. Why, when I have needed you most, have you not been there for me?" David Eckstein replied, "Because my little legs had gotten tired, and you were carrying me." And I looked down and saw that I was still carrying David Eckstein.
    --fjm.com

  21. #171
    Quote Originally Posted by mpfunk View Post
    I trust that our coach is using analytics that are advanced enough that it isn't so simple as just "if it is 4th and X on the X yard line, got for it." I'm trusting that he is using something advanced enough to account for score/time left in the game. Obviously, those analytics cannot account for things such as injuries, tendencies, and how the team is playing.

    I still trust numbers more than guts, and if you believe you are getting good enough data, you should use it. The Blackhawks have 3 Stanley Cups by abandoning the gut feeling in favor of the analytics.
    Why can't our coaches do cool stuff like go for it on fourth and 19 from our own five in the second quarter and down by 4? Haha.
    One thing I have learned in a long life: that all our science, measured against reality, is primitive and childlike -- and yet it is the most precious thing we have.

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  22. #172
    Five-O Diehard Ute's Avatar
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    It's official. College Gameday returns next week.


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  23. #173
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    I'm not sure where my son got this, but I like it.




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    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  24. #174
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    I'm not sure where my son got this, but I like it.




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    The best part about this is we've done it twice in three years.

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    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  25. #175
    I hope everyone keeps over-rating Colorado and under-rating Utah. That will make for a great win to end the year.

  26. #176
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Goon says Manalo has left the team:

    That's too bad. He was hyped up early but he faded fast. Really fast. It's too bad.

  27. #177
    Senior Member justaute's Avatar
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    Interesting. Wasn't Manalo just a red-shirt freshman?

  28. #178
    Quote Originally Posted by justaute View Post
    Interesting. Wasn't Manalo just a red-shirt freshman?
    Yes. But he was buried. Moss, DHC, Shyne, Howard. He'd be fifth string next year at best.

    Wish him well. Hopefully he goes to SDSU and gets 2,000 yards and a MWC title and BCS Bowl.

  29. #179
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    I wonder why there are so many penalty problems this season?

    http://www.deseretnews.com/article/8...the-mouth.html


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    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  30. #180
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    IUpdated ESPN FPI rankings:

    Up 4 spots to #37. There are 3 teams under .500 ranked higher than us. We are the lowest ranked, 1-loss, P5 team. Basically, the computers think we've been lucky.
    I don't know about lucky, but when you tend to string together wins in multiple games decided by a TD or less, the computers figure it's only a matter of time before you drop one or get completely outclassed.

    2014: Utah is 5-2 in games decided by a TD or less, but gets mauled by Oregon and Arizona at home -- the two reps in the league title game that year.

    2015: Utah is 4-2 in games decided by 8 points or fewer, but gets mauled by USC on the road, and were 2-2 after starting 8-1. And every game after that start was decided by 8 points or less.

    2016: Already 4-1 in games decided by 7 points or fewer, with 5-6 more games to play.

    We walk a tightrope when it comes to "power rankings." We're good, but we're rarely dominant. We play way too many close games. As a result, we leave too much to chance on 1 or 2 plays late in a game.
    Last edited by SoCalPat; 10-28-2016 at 10:46 AM.

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