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Thread: The Football Scheduling Thread

  1. #1

    The Football Scheduling Thread

    We don't have a thread dedicated to discussing the Football scheduling for the Utes in the future.

    Today it was announced that we will play @ Wyoming in 2020 and vs. Wyoming at home in 2025.

    Here's where we sit for now:

    2017

    8/31 North Dakota
    9/9 - @BYU
    9/16 - SJSU

    2018

    8/30 Weber St.
    9/8 @ Northern Illinois
    11/24 BYU

    2019

    8/29 @BYU
    9/7 Northern Illinois
    9/14 Idaho St.

    2020

    9/5 - BYU
    9/19 - @Wyoming

    2021

    9/2 - Weber St.
    9/11 @ BYU
    9/18 @ SDSU

    2022

    9/3 - BYU
    9/10 - Southern Utah
    9/17 - SDSU

    2023

    9/16 @Baylor

    2024

    8/29 - SUU
    9/14 - Baylor

    2025

    9/6 - Wyoming
    Last edited by DrumNFeather; 07-12-2017 at 09:15 AM.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  2. #2
    Not totally thrilled that in many of our OOC games, we're hitting the road first, to say nothing of the opponents.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  3. #3
    Well, at least I can go to a game in Laramie. It's only a few hours' drive.

    But, yeah, not very exciting.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    Not totally thrilled that in many of our OOC games, we're hitting the road first, to say nothing of the opponents.
    Not totally thrilled? Not thrilled one iota is more accurate.

  5. #5
    Sure don't want to stretch ourselves in any way do we? Yuck

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by mUUser View Post
    Sure don't want to stretch ourselves in any way do we? Yuck
    To be fair, we are stretched to the limit when you look at the entire schedule.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by mUUser View Post
    Sure don't want to stretch ourselves in any way do we? Yuck
    We're not beating down the door to play P5s, and apparently vice-versa. We're also in zero position to command one-offs against G5s -- think of all the H-H deals we signed with PAC 10 schools when we were in the MWC. Assuming otherwise on that puts you deep in the throes of Big Britches Syndrome. Even Chris Hill says it's a non-starter.

    Once you accept those two matters as inevitables that aren't gonna change anytime soon, the Wyoming series looks a lot better. It's a program on the rise, we have a ton of history with them and it's an easy trip for fans. Those are all things that San Jose State and Northern Illinois are not, although there are recruiting benefits to SJSU that aren't part of this deal with Wyoming.

    As far as scheduling sizzle goes on a 1-10 scale, if BYU is a baseline 5, and an FCS school is a 1, then this rates as a solid 6. By the time 2020 rolls around, if Wyoming is a steady 8-9 win team, it's a 7. If it reverts to the form it has known for much of the last 15 years, it can't get any worse than a 4. We can do much, much worse by dipping into the G5 pool, yet this is still a ways from scheduling a name P5.

    We still have a spot open for 2020. Scheduling an FCS game here is obviously the huge favorite from an odds standpoint, but I'll always hold out hope that we can sign a P5 to a H-H where they come to SLC first.

  8. #8
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    If Wyoming is replacing the 1-AA games those years, I'm good with that.

    Not sexy, but will play tough.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    Not totally thrilled that in many of our OOC games, we're hitting the road first, to say nothing of the opponents.
    Hey, at least we're not playing night games... in November... in Laramie.

    Notable games at Laramie:

    1. With the attendance of 43 drunk / insane WYO fans as witnesses, Kautai Olevao and Wes Tufaga threw people around with bare arms, temperature at kickoff at 2F.

    2. 2004 - Half the stadium's power goes out, causing Channel 4 to switch to Harry Potter (which they contractually couldn't halt when the game resumed), and Bill Marcroft announced Wesley Ruff's phone number on the air... a perfect story for Marcroft's last season.

    The nice thing about playing G5 / MWC teams, is while we're getting our offense figured out, and Scalley's getting the full compliment of defensive pressure packages installed, we play teams that have decent talent, but our lines make the outcome a foregone conclusion, unless there's a series of massive screwups... which there pretty much never is.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Ma'ake View Post
    The nice thing about playing G5 / MWC teams, is while we're getting our offense figured out, and Scalley's getting the full compliment of defensive pressure packages installed, we play teams that have decent talent, but our lines make the outcome a foregone conclusion, unless there's a series of massive screwups... which there pretty much never is.
    I hope the offense is fully installed by the time we travel to Laramie in 2020.

    Sent from my KFTHWI using Tapatalk

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ma'ake View Post
    Hey, at least we're not playing night games... in November... in Laramie.

    Notable games at Laramie:

    1. With the attendance of 43 drunk / insane WYO fans as witnesses, Kautai Olevao and Wes Tufaga threw people around with bare arms, temperature at kickoff at 2F.

    2. 2004 - Half the stadium's power goes out, causing Channel 4 to switch to Harry Potter (which they contractually couldn't halt when the game resumed), and Bill Marcroft announced Wesley Ruff's phone number on the air... a perfect story for Marcroft's last season.

    The nice thing about playing G5 / MWC teams, is while we're getting our offense figured out, and Scalley's getting the full compliment of defensive pressure packages installed, we play teams that have decent talent, but our lines make the outcome a foregone conclusion, unless there's a series of massive screwups... which there pretty much never is.
    I wouldn't call our 2020 roadie to Wyoming a foregone conclusion just yet -- anyone who can topple Boise State with a coach who kickstarted the dynasty Craig Bohl did at North Dakota State has to be taken seriously. But yeah, even after their greatest season in nearly 20 years, Wyoming was pretty bad on defense. My guess is it's either feast for famine for Wyoming by then -- Bohl could be the MWC's next Chris Peterson, churning out double-digit wins on a near-annual basis, or Bohl takes a better job (he'll eventually end up at Nebraska if he sees huge success at Wyoming and wants something more) and Wyoming sinks back to being a sub-.500 team with regularity.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    I hope the offense is fully installed by the time we travel to Laramie in 2020.

    Sent from my KFTHWI using Tapatalk
    This is the tongue-in-cheek type of humor I'm fully incapable of delivering.

  13. #13
    The OOC is by no means exciting...but that isn't a bad thing. Utah needs as many wins as possible every year. There is no downside to scheduling down.

  14. #14
    Southern Utah added to the 2024 schedule (8/29).
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  15. #15
    Sigh.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    Southern Utah added to the 2024 schedule (8/29).
    That we're inking deals with FCS schools seven years out is indisputable proof we're not interested in playing any P5s at all in the non-con. By the time the 2024 season is over, we'll have inked all of two such deals in 14 years -- Michigan and Baylor. If we're ever to be in the CPP mix as a one-loss team, we need BYU to be damn good. Because our non-con largely sucks for the next decade.

  17. #17
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    CPP...we can't even win our division.

    Quote Originally Posted by SoCalPat View Post
    That we're inking deals with FCS schools seven years out is indisputable proof we're not interested in playing any P5s at all in the non-con. By the time the 2024 season is over, we'll have inked all of two such deals in 14 years -- Michigan and Baylor. If we're ever to be in the CPP mix as a one-loss team, we need BYU to be damn good. Because our non-con largely sucks for the next decade.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    Southern Utah added to the 2024 schedule (8/29).

    What's our big marquee games from now till 2024. Baylor in 23-24? Come on fellas, it appears we're in a race to the OOC scheduling cellar with Arizona and WSU. Pathetic.
    “Children and dogs are as necessary to the welfare of the country as Wall Street and the railroads.” -- Harry S. Truman

    "You never soar so high as when you stoop down to help a child or an animal." -- Jewish Proverb

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  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by mUUser View Post
    What's our big marquee games from now till 2024. Baylor in 23-24? Come on fellas, it appears we're in a race to the OOC scheduling cellar with Arizona and WSU. Pathetic.
    True, but we still end up with a very tough overall SOS.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by SoCalPat View Post
    That we're inking deals with FCS schools seven years out is indisputable proof we're not interested in playing any P5s at all in the non-con. By the time the 2024 season is over, we'll have inked all of two such deals in 14 years -- Michigan and Baylor. If we're ever to be in the CPP mix as a one-loss team, we need BYU to be damn good. Because our non-con largely sucks for the next decade.
    Yeah - my question would be...are they even having these conversations with other teams.

    Let's take a look at a few random teams:

    Kansas St - in 2023 (granted, we play Baylor that year), they currently have nobody on the schedule. You could, in theory play them in 2023 in RES and in 2025 at KSU
    Iowa - from 2021 and beyond, they only have Iowa St. on the schedule...a home and home with the Hawkeyes would be lovely. 2020 in RES, 2025 at Iowa
    Texas A&M - Remember when we played them? Two good games. They've got a home and home with Colorado in 2020 and 2021 - wide open beyond that (Notre Dame and Miami, but once each year).
    The Fighting Mendenhalls - Would be available in 2022 and beyond for a home and home (I'd kick SUU to the curb in 2022).

    Again, I get the A, B, C, scheduling model the Dr. Hill wants to try to promote...but right now we're chalked full of Bs and Cs...If we want to call BYU an A game, I think you could maybe make that argument when we play them on the road. At home, I expect to win now every time.

    So I repeat my question...are these discussions even going on inside our football facility?
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    So I repeat my question...are these discussions even going on inside our football facility?
    Of course they are. It's not clear that a tougher schedule is in our best interests.

  22. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Of course they are. It's not clear that a tougher schedule is in our best interests.
    Exactly.

  23. #23
    Until a team with an equivalent or worse record than us is selected for the playoffs over us, this is the right strategy.

    It's the smart strategy.

  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Of course they are. It's not clear that a tougher schedule is in our best interests.
    There has to be some kind of happy medium between tough and terrible.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    There has to be some kind of happy medium between tough and terrible.
    Happy medium between tough and ultra tough. We already play a top 30 schedule every year. It's not wise to push for a top 10 schedule unless we really believe we have a top 10 program.

    That said, I'd love to rotate BYU off in favor of a P5 every once in a while. That seems to be the best solution. We already successfully piloted that program.
    Last edited by sancho; 07-13-2017 at 09:54 AM.

  26. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Happy medium between tough and ultra tough. We already play a top 30 schedule every year. It's not wise to push for a top 10 schedule unless we really believe we have a top 10 program.

    That said, I'd love to rotate BYU off in favor of a P5 every once in a while. That seems to be the best solution. We already successfully piloted that program.
    Well, I'm speaking specifically to our non-conference schedule. Clearly our league schedule is difficult, and especially in a year like this where Cal and Oregon St. are not on it, it's even tougher. I'm even fine with the A, B, C, mode of thinking...but I think that who falls under what category needs to be evaluated a little more closely.

    For example, if we want to call BYU our "A" game when we play in Provo, I think that's fine...but if we do that, we should be looking to bring someone into RES in those years as a "B" game that generates some excitement. I think the SDSU game in a few years probably does that. SJSU, Wyoming, and No. Illinois, however, do not.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Happy medium between tough and ultra tough. We already play a top 30 schedule every year. It's not wise to push for a top 10 schedule unless we really believe we have a top 10 program.

    That said, I'd love to rotate BYU off in favor of a P5 every once in a while. That seems to be the best solution. We already successfully piloted that program.
    Utah's SOS per Sagarin since 2011:

    2016: 60th
    2015: 28th
    2014: 36th
    2013: 3rd
    2012: 41st
    2011: 49th

    Average: 36th. Toss out the high/low, and it's 38.5. Take out 2013, and it's 42.6.

    I suspect this year will be closer to 2013, so it's not wise to say we play less than a top 40 schedule. Top 30 is pushing it, but far from being wildly inaccurate.

    I think there's room to go A-A-C, or B-B-B. I think it's a fallacy to say every week is a grind in the Pac-12, because too often, we play down to our competition. We create that grind more than other teams creating it for us. Would scheduling up in the non-con help us avoid the letdowns we see against Pac-12 teams that are inferior or having a down year? There's simply not enough evidence to say.

    What there is enough evidence of, is a 1-loss Utah team competing against other 1-loss teams for a spot in the playoff will likely be left out with a SOS in the mid to low 30s.

    2016: 3-1-6-53, average of 15.75
    2015: 1-21-20-30, average of 18
    2014: 29-2-20-21, average of 18

    Are we scheduling to compete/win in the Pac-12, or are we scheduling with bigger goals in mind? It would be a tough pill to swallow if a one-loss Utah team got shut out of the playoff because we believe we scheduled A-B-C, but the results were closer to B-C-C. I think in the big picture, there's very little to lose by scheduling up, but the price you pay for scheduling down could be a killer. Programs like Utah get generational bites at the playoff apple.

  28. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by SoCalPat View Post
    I think in the big picture, there's very little to lose by scheduling up
    I agree with everything you said except this. There is risk either way. Maybe we go 13-0 and grab a playoff spot because of a weaker non-conf. Maybe harder games cause us to miss a bowl game one year or cause us to miss a top 25 ranking. Maybe a tougher grind takes a brutal toll on performance or depth.

    I'd be excited to see better teams on our schedule, but, man, let's not forget how amazing our schedules already are.
    Last edited by sancho; 07-13-2017 at 01:34 PM.

  29. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    B" game that generates some excitement. I think the SDSU game in a few years probably does that. SJSU, Wyoming, and No. Illinois, however, do not.
    I think we differ a bit here. I am not going to be particularly excited about any G5 team except boise or a game I can drive to. If we want to upgrade, we need to do it with P5 games.

  30. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    I think we differ a bit here. I am not going to be particularly excited about any G5 team except boise or a game I can drive to. If we want to upgrade, we need to do it with P5 games.
    Oh believe you me, I was stretching to call SDSU an exciting game. I mean, if we were playing Wyoming this year with Josh Allen as a potential top 3 QB in next year's draft, that would be interesting. Absent that, I agree with you.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

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