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Thread: Life in the Trump Era, Part 2

  1. #151
    Quote Originally Posted by Ma'ake View Post
    .....If Kamala Harris were elected in 2020, there would be a convoy of pickups and shotguns headed to DC, from the red states, getting instruction from Hannity and Rush, on their AM radios.......
    What exactly are you trying to say here?
    “Children and dogs are as necessary to the welfare of the country as Wall Street and the railroads.” -- Harry S. Truman

    "You never soar so high as when you stoop down to help a child or an animal." -- Jewish Proverb

    "Three-time Pro Bowler Eric Weddle the most versatile, and maybe most intelligent, safety in the game." -- SI, 9/7/15, p. 107.

  2. #152
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthwestUteFan View Post
    But the coinflip states were exactly coinflips. The margin was on the order of two votes per precinct.
    These types of analyses always miss the point. Trump won narrowly in states that Democrats usually carry by wide margins. That is why it was a debacle for Clinton and the Democrats, and that is why it is politically and historically significant. I don’t like him, but there is no denying the phenomenon that occurred in 2016. Democrats who want to claim that this was all a matter of Trump stealing the election somehow are whistling past the graveyard, in my opinion.


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    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  3. #153
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    These types of analyses always miss the point. Trump won narrowly in states that Democrats usually carry by wide margins. That is why it was a debacle for Clinton and the Democrats, and that is why it is politically and historically significant. I don’t like him, but there is no denying the phenomenon that occurred in 2016. Democrats who want to claim that this was all a matter of Trump stealing the election somehow are whistling past the graveyard, in my opinion.

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    I agree to a point. Trump won those states because Hillary was unable to get the voters who previously voted for Obama to the polls not because those people switched allegiance to the GOP.

  4. #154
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    These types of analyses always miss the point. Trump won narrowly in states that Democrats usually carry by wide margins. That is why it was a debacle for Clinton and the Democrats, and that is why it is politically and historically significant. I don’t like him, but there is no denying the phenomenon that occurred in 2016. Democrats who want to claim that this was all a matter of Trump stealing the election somehow are whistling past the graveyard, in my opinion.


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    Hillary literally ignored the local Dem leaders on the ground who were begging her to make an appearance, send materials and people, assist with GOTV and voter registration, etc. Not only did she ignore the call, but her campaign also swept locally-raised funds into the national campaign coffers. And because she ignored the grassroots leadership and disregarded their statements and instead listened to her own polling, tens of thousands of Obama voters couldn't or wouldn't vote and she lost a slam-dunk election to the worst major-party candidate in modern history. By two votes per precinct, many of those precincts in districts who were begging for assistance.

    What the DNC did was an egregious waste of a billion dollars, and everyone at the DNC above the level of janitors and secretaries should be fired and never allowed to control the party again.

  5. #155
    NUF and Uteopia are both right, IMHO. The Obama coalition didn't have the same enthusiasm for Hillary, and didn't turn out, especially in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. (No surprise; she was a horrible candidate in her own right.) Hillary suffered from running against the worst candidate ever by underestimating him. Instead of shoring up support in those states, she spent a lot of time, money, and energy trying to expand the map into Georgia, Texas, Utah, and Arizona, because she wanted a historic mandate. She didn't take Trump seriously, and then the Comey letter tipped the scales (Yes, i think it made a difference, so dont bother castigating me about it LA Ute.)
    Last edited by concerned; Yesterday at 03:17 PM.

  6. #156
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Life in the Trump Era, Part 2

    I think the explanation for the loss of the “blue wall” states is complex. But I think Democrats are trying to explain it in a very self-flattering way. Something significant happened there, and it was more than Obama voters simply staying home. Those same states voted decisively for Democrats in the last seven or eight elections, not just when Obama was running.

    I’m not trying to make a case for Trump‘s special appeal, just trying to understand it. This is the political science major in me talking.

    Concerned, there is no doubt that Comey made a difference in the election. I think his behavior was erratic to say the least, and his explanations for his strange behavior, both during the Clinton email investigation and his exoneration of her, and then in his last-minute release of information, are tortured. I can’t understand the way the guy thinks. Personally I believe he over-thinks matters. He will not be remembered as a great FBI director.


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    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  7. #157
    Administrator U-Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    I think the explanation for the loss of the “blue wall” states is complex. But I think Democrats are trying to explain it in a very self-flattering way. Something significant happened there, and it was more than Obama voters simply staying home. Those same states voted decisively for Democrats in the last seven or eight elections, not just when Obama was running.

    I’m not trying to make a case for Trump‘s special appeal, just trying to understand it. This is the political science major in me talking.

    Concerned, there is no doubt that Comey made a difference in the election. I think his behavior was erratic to say the least, and his explanations for his strange behavior, both during the Clinton email investigation and his exoneration of her, and then in his last-minute release of information, are tortured. I can’t understand the way the guy thinks. Personally I believe he over-thinks matters. He will not be remembered as a great FBI director.


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    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a...lt_revolt.html

    Compared with 2012, three times as many voters in the Rust Belt who made under $100,000 voted for third parties. Twice as many voted for alternative or write-in candidates. Similarly, compared with 2012, some 500,000 more voters chose to sit out this presidential election. If there was a Rust Belt revolt this year, it was the voters’ flight from both parties.

    In short, the story of a white working-class revolt in the Rust Belt just doesn't hold up, according to the numbers. In the Rust Belt, Democrats lost 1.35 million voters. Trump picked up less than half, at 590,000. The rest stayed home or voted for someone other than the major party candidates.

    This data suggests that if the Democratic Party wants to win the Rust Belt, it should not go chasing after the white working-class men who voted for Trump. The party should spend its energy figuring out why Democrats lost millions of voters to some other candidate or to abstention. Exit polls do not collect information about why voters stay home. Perhaps it’s time someone asked them.

  8. #158
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    I think the explanation for the loss of the “blue wall” states is complex. But I think Democrats are trying to explain it in a very self-flattering way. Something significant happened there, and it was more than Obama voters simply staying home. Those same states voted decisively for Democrats in the last seven or eight elections, not just when Obama was running.

    I’m not trying to make a case for Trump‘s special appeal, just trying to understand it. This is the political science major in me talking.

    Concerned, there is no doubt that Comey made a difference in the election. I think his behavior was erratic to say the least, and his explanations for his strange behavior, both during the Clinton email investigation and his exoneration of her, and then in his last-minute release of information, are tortured. I can’t understand the way the guy thinks. Personally I believe he over-thinks matters. He will not be remembered as a great FBI director.


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    The old DNC leadership should all get shitcanned. While a president is in office, the typical (and smart) plan is to shrink the staff at the federal level and to focus as much money and effort at the local level as possible.

    When BHO was in office, the DNC kept top policy consultant groups on staff, and they spent on the order of a billion dollars. So the consultants now have fifth houses on the Maryland Shore (thanks to large corporations and to people who donated to their local Dem party fundraisers) while urban Dem leaders have been forgotten and neglected. As a result, a huge percentage of the local elections have swung sharply toward Republicans during that time frame.

    As for Comey, he was bullied by Congress to show that he was investigating Emailgate. And never forget that Jason Chaffetz was the person who leaked Comey's letter.

  9. #159
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    It’s interesting. It seems to me that when Republicans lose, they worry that their message was wrong. When Democrats lose, they worry that their tactics were wrong. Maybe each side could learn a little from the other, because it’s rarely just one or the other of those two factors.


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    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  10. #160
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    It’s interesting. It seems to me that when Republicans lose, they worry that their message was wrong. When Democrats lose, they worry that their tactics were wrong. Maybe each side could learn a little from the other, because it’s rarely just one or the other of those two factors.


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    Disagree. Bernie, biden, obama to a lesser degree, and reportedly bill clinton in private, repeatedly said the message was wrong--the hillary did not speak enough to the economic concerns of white middle class blue collar voters.

  11. #161
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Life in the Trump Era, Part 2

    Quote Originally Posted by concerned View Post
    Disagree. Bernie, biden, obama to a lesser degree, and reportedly bill clinton in private, repeatedly said the message was wrong--the hillary did not speak enough to the economic concerns of white middle class blue collar voters.
    Speaking generally. Northwest Ute Fan is blaming tactics, and I was responding to that — with love, of course. He knows that. 😄 And I maintain that the party elders you mention are the exception. The young bucks still think they just need to try harder, and emphasize the left-leaning messages that focus identity politics, for example. Just look at what Pérez, the party chairman, is saying.

    SIEGEL: But the implication of that is that those states were lost for lack of effort last year, not for serious reasons of substance or opinions of the candidate. Is that what happened, that you just didn't try hard enough to win in those states?

    PEREZ: Well, I think what Democrats stopped doing enough of was organizing everywhere. And we were good at mobilizing, Robert. Mobilizing is that sprint up to the election. But we weren't good at organizing. Organizing is the marathon. It's talking to people 12 months a year. It's building relationships with people. And we used to be the best at that.
    https://www.npr.org/2017/11/08/56290...-for-the-party


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

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