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Thread: Life in the Trump Era, Part 2

  1. #361
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jrj84105 View Post
    I’m not sure where you most recently posted this LA, but I think it’s the basis for the way forward:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.bus...-states-2015-7

    The USA no longer have enough of a shared national identity to strongly unite us. It’s time to allow more regional autonomy. We need to go back to 13 colonies.

    Divide the 50 states into 13 regional governments (no more than 8 states/region) with each region having roughly equal population. Each region gets 8 senators (raises the total to 108) with each state (and DC and Puerto Rico) getting at least one senator and other than that allowing the regions to assign the remaining senators how they see fit. (Example CA gets their own region with 8 senators; UT, ID, MN, ND, SD, WY, AZ each get one senator to fill their combined allotment of 8).

    Each region would have a big enough economy and population to enjoy enonomies of scale for their endeavors and would be protected from the frank idiosyncratic weirdness that arises in individual states). Caps for emphasis on where power resides:

    LOCAL-state-REGIONAL-national

    would better fit our nation than the current:

    local-STATE-regional-NATIONAL
    We'd probably end up like 19th century Europe and have endless wars.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  2. #362
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    We'd probably end up like 19th century Europe and have endless wars.
    That sounds a lot better than having one War that ends it all.

  3. #363
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    When I post stuff like this I always feel I have to state my standard disclaimer: I wish we had another Republican in the White House, but I am still rooting for good things to happen. The following describes an interesting phenomenon, although as a Californian I am not thrilled about certain aspects of it:

    Can the Trump Economy Trump Trump?

    The president’s economic policies are showing marked success, but he may not benefit politically unless he learns how to get out of his own way.
    Some positive trends can be traced to the Obama years, but there’s clearly been a shift in trajectory and direction of the economy. As President Obama once noted, “elections have consequences.” Under Obama, federal policies—the “stimulus,” non-regulation of tech giants, ultra-low interest rates— benefited urban core, blue-state bastions that now constitute the unshakeable base of the Democratic Party. Under Trump, most working- and middle-class workers benefit from higher standard tax deductions and energy deregulation, while the affluent in high-tax states like California, New York, and Illinois are likely not to do as well.

    Today, the often-disdained red states have the wind at their back, while in blue America, the economy seems to be slowing, as industries and people move to lower-cost, lower-regulation states. Seven of the top 10 states in terms of population growth last year were deep red; overall, the South has become home to the better part of economic dynamism in the country, with Texas and Florida alone accounting for one-third of all U.S. growth since 2010. Some analysts suggest that the new tax law, which works against high-income earners in high-tax states, will accelerate these trends further.


    The most recent employment numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirm these trends. Texas, as it has for the last few decades, is generating jobs at a higher rate than more populous California, lauded by the mainstream media as the premier anti-Trump economy. In November, the largest job increases—around 0.4 percent—occurred in three pro-Trump states: Iowa, South Carolina, and Texas. At the same time, the biggest drops in unemployment have occurred in the South, led by Alabama, where the rate fell by over 2.5 percent, followed by Tennessee, Florida, and Georgia. The BEA reports that the GDP of Texas, the linchpin of red America, over the past year is growing almost three times as fast as California and five times as fast as New York. Utah, Michigan, and Wisconsin also grew faster than California.


    This marks a meaningful change in the geography of American economic vitality.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  4. #364
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    When I post stuff like this I always feel I have to state my standard disclaimer: I wish we had another Republican in the White House, but I am still rooting for good things to happen. The following describes an interesting phenomenon, although as a Californian I am not thrilled about certain aspects of it:

    Can the Trump Economy Trump Trump?

    The president’s economic policies are showing marked success, but he may not benefit politically unless he learns how to get out of his own way.

    While my 401k appreciates the bounce in the market, I believe it is too early to make any real assessment of Trump's impact on the economy. It would be like me building a new home and determining that the cost is going to be less than anticipated because the cost for digging the for the foundation came in less than anticipated. The final grade will not be known until the full impact of the tax changes are in place for a few years. As with Reagan, the first few years were great - however, when his policies ran their course, we saw the results with the mini-recession in 1988-1989 that caused many real estate developers to lose their properties ( I know, I did work for First Security Bank when we foreclosed on the Stein Ericksen condos at Deer Valley and on several other properties - Wolf Mountain near Powder Mountain. My biggest mistake was not buying a 2 bedroom condo at Steins for $65k in 1988) and many S&L's to go under due to lack of regulation leading to poor lending practices.

  5. #365
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UTEopia View Post
    While my 401k appreciates the bounce in the market, I believe it is too early to make any real assessment of Trump's impact on the economy. It would be like me building a new home and determining that the cost is going to be less than anticipated because the cost for digging the for the foundation came in less than anticipated. The final grade will not be known until the full impact of the tax changes are in place for a few years. As with Reagan, the first few years were great - however, when his policies ran their course, we saw the results with the mini-recession in 1988-1989 that caused many real estate developers to lose their properties ( I know, I did work for First Security Bank when we foreclosed on the Stein Ericksen condos at Deer Valley and on several other properties - Wolf Mountain near Powder Mountain. My biggest mistake was not buying a 2 bedroom condo at Steins for $65k in 1988) and many S&L's to go under due to lack of regulation leading to poor lending practices.
    Good points. I should have said I don't give Trump credit for the trend Kotkin describes. (I generally think presidents get too much credit and blame for the economy.)

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  6. #366
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    Good points. I should have said I don't give Trump credit for the trend Kotkin describes. (I generally think presidents get too much credit and blame for the economy.)
    Presidents and Utah football quarterbacks

  7. #367
    Manhattan DA has raided the offices of Newsweek.
    http://www.businessinsider.com/newsw...ttorney-2018-1

    The interim DA is a Giuliani partner, interviewed and hand picked by Trump.

    Is your 401k worth more than the foundation of this country?

  8. #368
    Aaaaaannnnnd... we're starting to get into the money laundering part of the Russia investigation narrative: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/poli...icle-1.3764964

    We will see, but the topic of money laundering (possibly involving Russian oligarchs) does seem to fit the "red line" Mueller was supposedly warned not to cross, specifically business dealings of the Trump family.

    Adam Schiff: "
    Simpson raises questions on money laundering the Committee must investigate
    "

    IMO, Schiff's highlighting the issue puts pressure on Devin Nunes to not simply stonewall/ignore it, and if the House (and presumably Senate) Intel committees dig into this area and find substantial issues, it insulates Mueller, a bit.

  9. #369
    Quote Originally Posted by jrj84105 View Post
    Manhattan DA has raided the offices of Newsweek.
    http://www.businessinsider.com/newsw...ttorney-2018-1

    The interim DA is a Giuliani partner, interviewed and hand picked by Trump.

    Is your 401k worth more than the foundation of this country?
    So when someone points out, using facts, that red states are benefiting from Trump, you respond by using hyperbole. You would be taken a lot more seriously if you used a rational argument instead.

  10. #370
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ma'ake View Post
    Aaaaaannnnnd... we're starting to get into the money laundering part of the Russia investigation narrative: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/poli...icle-1.3764964

    We will see, but the topic of money laundering (possibly involving Russian oligarchs) does seem to fit the "red line" Mueller was supposedly warned not to cross, specifically business dealings of the Trump family.

    Adam Schiff: "
    Simpson raises questions on money laundering the Committee must investigate
    "

    IMO, Schiff's highlighting the issue puts pressure on Devin Nunes to not simply stonewall/ignore it, and if the House (and presumably Senate) Intel committees dig into this area and find substantial issues, it insulates Mueller, a bit.
    It’s hard to keep track of everything that’s happening because there are so many reactions and counter-reactions, spins and counter-spins, to every little bit of information that comes out. I’ll just throw out this contrary view for everyone’s edification:

    Simpson admits Fusion GPS went to the press to salvage Clinton’s campaign

    There you have it: James Comey’s announcement that he was reopening the Hillary email investigation–an investigation in which he eventually whitewashed Mrs. Clinton, notwithstanding unequivocal evidence of crimes on her part–triggered a response. Hillary, or the DNC, ordered Simpson and Steele to promote to the press their quarter-baked dossier of fabrication and speculation, in an effort to counterbalance Comey’s reopening of the email investigation. That pretty much tells you all you need to know.
    http://www.powerlineblog.com/archive...s-campaign.php

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  11. #371
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    It’s hard to keep track of everything that’s happening because there are so many reactions and counter-reactions, spins and counter-spins, to every little bit of information that comes out. I’ll just throw out this contrary view for everyone’s edification:
    *If* what Simpson & Steele found is corroborated by solid Intel, wouldn't they ordinarily be considered pro-America heroes for taking the material to the FBI and trying to get elected the candidate who was being aggressively & actively opposed by Putin, via hacking / coordination / possible money laundering / etc?

    That viewpoint might have been held by most, even a sizable portion of Republicans... before the efforts to undermine the FBI and CIA.

    The first time I heard of the Steele Dossier I thought whatever truth might be there will have to be corroborated by Intel. But Trump's attacks on the FBI and CIA have left even his loyal Vets saying you just can't trust the Intel community anymore.

    It might work. Nunes, Grassley, et al, clearly are doing the best they can to steer their investigations away from anything sticky for Trump, and both have been countered by Dems (In the House Intel committee Schiff saying allegations of money laundering need to be investigated, and if they can't interview people they think are relevant they may issue a Minority Report, and in the Senate Judiciary committee Feinstein releasing the whole Fusion GPS testimony, over the top of Grassley). Yet to be heard much from is the Senate Intel committee.

    This all is simultaneously both fascinating to watch, and disheartening in how divided Dems & Republicans are in Congress, reflecting and exacerbating divisions in the electorate.

    And Jeff Flake is treated by Republicans like he speaks some backward variant of Laotian.

  12. #372
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    It’s hard to keep track of everything that’s happening because there are so many reactions and counter-reactions, spins and counter-spins, to every little bit of information that comes out. I’ll just throw out this contrary view for everyone’s edification:

    Simpson admits Fusion GPS went to the press to salvage Clinton’s campaign



    http://www.powerlineblog.com/archive...s-campaign.php

    Do you think that is all you need to know about Fusion or the dossier? There is some pretty damning stuff in the house transcript. Steele, who had been an FBI informant and source on other national security matters and had a track record, was alarmed enough about the national security implications of the money laundering and other Russian stuff that he took it to the FBI and to John McCain on his own initiative in July. McCain also gave it to the FBI. As Simpson said, they threw a line in the water and reeled in Moby Dick.

    IIRC, a number of things in the dossier have been corroborated. Nothing has been disproven. Even the cavorting with prostitutes stuff seems more plausible in light of the Stormy Daniels and other porn stars revelations. (is there that much difference between golden showers and getting spanked with a rolled up Forbes?)

    And there is a lot of evidence unrelated to the dossier.

  13. #373
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by concerned View Post
    Do you think that is all you need to know about Fusion or the dossier? There is some pretty damning stuff in the house transcript. Steele, who had been an FBI informant and source on other national security matters and had a track record, was alarmed enough about the national security implications of the money laundering and other Russian stuff that he took it to the FBI and to John McCain on his own initiative in July. McCain also gave it to the FBI. As Simpson said, they threw a line in the water and reeled in Moby Dick.

    IIRC, a number of things in the dossier have been corroborated. Nothing has been disproven. Even the cavorting with prostitutes stuff seems more plausible in light of the Stormy Daniels and other porn stars revelations. (is there that much difference between golden showers and getting spanked with a rolled up Forbes?)

    And there is a lot of evidence unrelated to the dossier.
    That Power Line post was just an example of the hard core (and smart) opposition point of view, which still seems over the top to me. But everything these days seems over the top.

    What's most interesting to me about Fusion GPS and all that's related is that conservatives are skeptical and liberals are buying it. That should tell all of us a lot. Confirmation bias is rampant. I think the truth is going to be very hard to find because of Trump and the irrational, often hysterical reaction to him (which he avidly foments), which has resulted in a crazy country. CNN is crazy. Fox News is crazy. I am embarrassed for both of them as news organizations. As for Simpson and his buddies, like I said before, they are hired guns. Everything they say has to be taken with a grain of salt. That goes for Devin Nunes and Adam Schiff, too. (Adam is a former colleague of mine and I know him well. He's an honest man but he's doing his job, what he needs to do as a partisan.)

    I wish the country could calm down and wait this out but that's not possible. This situation is as discouraging as it is unbearable.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  14. #374
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    This situation is as discouraging as it is unbearable.
    Absolutely on this...

  15. #375
    Quote Originally Posted by Rocker Ute View Post
    Absolutely on this...

    Also agree. They need to get to the bottom of this and get everything out in the open and stop playing games on either side.

  16. #376
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by concerned View Post
    Also agree. They need to get to the bottom of this and get everything out in the open and stop playing games on either side.
    applause.jpg
    Last edited by LA Ute; Yesterday at 03:56 PM.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  17. #377
    Attached Images Attached Images
    "It'd be nice to please everyone but I thought it would be more interesting to have a point of view." -- Oscar Levant

  18. #378
    What can you say, this guy just “gets it.”




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