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Thread: Life in the Trump Era, Part 2

  1. #121
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    It would help everyone if the news media on all sides would calm down about Trump and work harder at just telling us, carefully, what is going on.
    I agree. That was an inexcusable pileup that requires explanation and transparent accountability.

  2. #122
    Five-O Diehard Ute's Avatar
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    I’ve come to understand Trump is merely Veruca Salt


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  3. #123
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ma'ake View Post
    Pre-emptive moves to protect against Trump bouncing Mueller: https://www.politico.com/story/2017/...ongress-281810

    It's encouraging that some Republican Senators at least see the risk in Mueller getting canned, but how they'll vote is another question. Another question is will it matter, if Trump jumps headlong into a constitutional crisis, anyway. "The President cannot obstruct justice". That was a planted seed to not just defend him, but build to support for eliminating Mueller.

    Another move that is seriously troubling is Pompeo assembling a privatized international spy ring to counter the "Deep State" CIA folks whom he doesn't trust. I would expect further moves in this direction, deliberate moves to negate / counter our intelligence services. (A whole lot of the Russian intel apparatus are not employees of the FSB, but rather loosely connected actors who do the bidding of Putin, such as the various "incidents" that help opposition to Putin in Russia be dramatically muted.)
    The POTUS cannot be prosecuted for an otherwise lawful exercise of his constitutional powers. As politically odious and stupid as the firing of Comey or Mueller might be, they were, or would be, lawful exercises of the president‘s constitutional powers. So a lot of the obstruction of justice talk floating around right now is nonsense.

    The ultimate check on presidential power is impeachment. Even though Mr. Trump cannot have violated criminal law in dismissing Mr. Comey, if a majority of representatives believe he acted improperly or corruptly, they are free to impeach him. If two-thirds of senators agree, they can remove him from office. Congress would then be politically accountable for its action. Such is the genius of our Constitution’s checks and balances.

    None of this is to suggest the president has absolute immunity from criminal obstruction-of-justice laws. He simply cannot be prosecuted for an otherwise lawful exercise of his constitutional powers. The cases of Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton —the latter impeached, and the former nearly so, for obstruction of justice—have contributed to today’s confusion. These were not criminal charges but articulations of “high crimes and misdemeanors,” the constitutional standard for impeachment.

    And in neither case was the accusation based on the president’s exercise of his lawful constitutional powers. If a president authorizes the bribery of a witness to suppress truthful testimony, as Nixon was accused of doing, he can be said to have obstructed justice. Likewise if a president asks a potential witness to commit perjury in a judicial action having nothing to do with the exercise of his office, as Mr. Clinton was accused of doing.

    Although neither man could have been prosecuted while in office without his consent, either could have been after leaving office. That’s why President Ford pardoned Nixon—to avoid the spectacle and poisonous political atmosphere of a criminal trial. In Mr. Trump’s case, by contrast, the president exercised the power to fire an executive-branch official whom he may dismiss for any reason, good or bad, or for no reason at all. To construe that as a crime would unravel America’s entire constitutional structure.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-a-p...ice-1512938781

    I don’t know why Trump doesn’t just declassify records of all the allegedly politically motivated activities used against him. For example, the unmasking of that telephone conversation with the Russians. If there really were some games played (and I don’t know if that really happened) why not just expose them to the public?

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  4. #124
    Administrator U-Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    I don’t know why Trump doesn’t just declassify records of all the allegedly politically motivated activities used against him. For example, the unmasking of that telephone conversation with the Russians. If there really were some games played (and I don’t know if that really happened) why not just expose them to the public?
    With politicians in general, and especially with Trump, you never get the whole truth. They only tell you the part they want you to hear. They purposefully leave out the stuff they don't want you to hear. So that's what you have to listen to and reason about.

    So why would Trump not release those tapes if they would exonerate him with regards to surveillance on him? Probably because whatever else is on that tapes is a much bigger problem to him.

  5. #125
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    The POTUS cannot be prosecuted for an otherwise lawful exercise of his constitutional powers.
    That begs the question, doesn't it? Depends on the reason he fires Mueller or Comey.

  6. #126
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Life in the Trump Era, Part 2

    Quote Originally Posted by concerned View Post
    That begs the question, doesn't it? Depends on the reason he fires Mueller or Comey.
    What reason would represent an unlawful exercise of his executive
    powers?

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  7. #127
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    What reason would represent an unlawful exercise of his executive
    powers?
    You know the answer. To terminate an investigation into his own wrongdoing. Your are not going Alan Dershowitz on this are you?

  8. #128
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by concerned View Post
    You know the answer. To terminate an investigation into his own wrongdoing. Your are not going Alan Dershowitz on this are you?
    Wouldn’t that be an impeachable offense, as opposed to a criminal one? I’m basing my view on that op-ed I linked to.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  9. #129
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    Wouldn’t that be an impeachable offense, as opposed to a criminal one? I’m basing my view on that op-ed I linked to.
    Sorry; I misread your comment; I thought you said impeached, not prosecuted. Again, however, it depends on why and how he does it, since obstruction of justice can be a crime.

  10. #130
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Life in the Trump Era, Part 2

    Quote Originally Posted by concerned View Post
    Sorry; I misread your comment; I thought you said impeached, not prosecuted. Again, however, it depends on why and how he does it, since obstruction of justice can be a crime.
    I’m not going all Dershowitz on you, but are you saying that if the FBI starts investigating the POTUS, the FBI Director has job security as long as the investigation continues? Seems extra-Constitutional to me.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  11. #131
    I have to take back all the bad things I've said about Alabama (the state).

    Does Trump turn to conspiracy theories?

    Does Mitch McConnell get another round of flogging?

    Conventional wisdom is the Dems use this as a launch point into 2018, and as politicians around him accused of sexual abuse dwindle in number, Trump gets even more erratic in trying to defend himself.

    (The short term question is whether this will tank the GOP tax reform.)

  12. #132
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    You can all thank the Republican voters of Alabama, who did the right thing and gave you this victory. Good for them. It is possible that they don’t deserve the moral judgments so many Democrats have been imposing on them because of that creep‘s nomination after a nasty primary.

    Unless Mr. Jones runs to the center very hard and fast, he is going to have only a single term in the Senate.

    And Steve Bannon should crawl back under his rock for a while now.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  13. #133
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  14. #134
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    You can all thank the Republican voters of Alabama, who did the right thing and gave you this victory. Good for them. It is possible that they don’t deserve the moral judgments so many Democrats have been imposing on them because of that creep‘s nomination after a nasty primary.

    Unless Mr. Jones runs to the center very hard and fast, he is going to have only a single term in the Senate.

    And Steve Bannon should crawl back under his rock for a while now.
    I've seen a lot of media sources stating this is a referendum on Trump and the Republican party and a victory for the Democrats (well mostly CNN but they've said it about 40 times with Chris Chilliza giving us another pointless breakdown and mansplaining to us what it means). I actually think it is a referendum on child predators and not the victory for the Democratic party as it is being painted. If a Dem had won in Alabama against anyone who wasn't the worst possible candidate then they'd have a point.

    Yet any reasonable person should be disgusted by the RNC and Trump right now, who did go and throw their weight behind Moore when they could have continued to shun him. Playing the long game that would have been the better plan to win the hearts and minds of the American people. Now the worst possible outcome for them, they've both lost the seat and any semblance of a moral compass. What Mitt Romney said was exactly right.

  15. #135
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rocker Ute View Post
    I've seen a lot of media sources stating this is a referendum on Trump and the Republican party and a victory for the Democrats (well mostly CNN but they've said it about 40 times with Chris Chilliza giving us another pointless breakdown and mansplaining to us what it means). I actually think it is a referendum on child predators and not the victory for the Democratic party as it is being painted. If a Dem had won in Alabama against anyone who wasn't the worst possible candidate then they'd have a point.

    Yet any reasonable person should be disgusted by the RNC and Trump right now, who did go and throw their weight behind Moore when they could have continued to shun him. Playing the long game that would have been the better plan to win the hearts and minds of the American people. Now the worst possible outcome for them, they've both lost the seat and any semblance of a moral compass. What Mitt Romney said was exactly right.
    I have great respect for Senator Cory Gardner, the chair of the GOP committee that normally donates to Republican candidates, who refused to donate to Moore and who promised to try to expel him if elected.

    Meanwhile, here’s a comment:

    “Luther Strange would have won in a landslide… Just too much crazy in nerve racking times,” influential news kingpin Matt Drudge wrote on Twitter following Moore’s loss. “There IS a limit!”

    “This is a brutal reminder that candidate quality matters regardless of where you are running,” Steve Law, president of the Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC, said in a statement. “Not only did Steve Bannon cost us a critical Senate seat in one of the most Republican states in the country, but he also dragged the President of the United States into his fiasco,” Law said.

    Democratic strategist Paul Begala mockingly thanked Bannon for making Democratic candidate Doug Jones’ victory possible.

    “Special thanks to the genius strategist who did so much to make this happen: Steve Bannon,” Begala gloated.
    http://dailycaller.com/2017/12/12/st...oy-moore-loss/

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  16. #136
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    I have great respect for Senator Cory Gardner, the chair of the GOP committee that normally donates to Republican candidates, who refused to donate to Moore and who promised to try to expel him if elected.

    Meanwhile, here’s a comment:



    http://dailycaller.com/2017/12/12/st...oy-moore-loss/

    Bannon needs to be expunged from politics. That guy is genuinely scary and deserves all the mockery he'll get over this.

  17. #137
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    I have great respect for Senator Cory Gardner, the chair of the GOP committee that normally donates to Republican candidates, who refused to donate to Moore and who promised to try to expel him if elected.
    As do I.

    I agree this has much less to do with Alabamans turning away from the GOP and inaction on their agenda, and everything to do with plain old decency. Moore had won his previous elections by narrow margins in off election years, and his support shrunk from those elections last night. He was a bad candidate who became horrific.

    But the RNC's support of Moore, going along with Trump's support, will be collars of shame around most GOP candidates for the 2018 election cycle. There's been a sea change on this issue.

    (Is the Democratic Party ready to capitalize? Right now, no. When pressed on who leads the Democratic Party, Elizabeth Warren was right: "Democratic voters are the leaders of the Democratic Party". Tom Perez has to go. The old guard has to go. It's time for new leadership, new ideas for a changed landscape. We'll see if they're capable of adapting.)

  18. #138
    Quote Originally Posted by Rocker Ute View Post
    Bannon needs to be expunged from politics. That guy is genuinely scary and deserves all the mockery he'll get over this.
    (Olympus High and UofU grad) Karl Rove was scary. But at least he wanted to work within the system to improve things.

    Bannon is a terrifying demagogue who wants to completely remake the government by tearing it down. If he was still active duty the Navy would hang him for treason (kidding, obviously).

  19. #139
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    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    You can all thank the Republican voters of Alabama, who did the right thing and gave you this victory. Good for them. It is possible that they don’t deserve the moral judgments so many Democrats have been imposing on them because of that creep‘s nomination after a nasty primary.
    From what I've been reading, the only way Republican voters helped was by not turning out. By all accounts, Republican turnout was low while Democratic turnout was significantly higher, helped by an NAACP drive to make sure voters were ready for the ID laws and had rides.

    Unless Mr. Jones runs to the center very hard and fast, he is going to have only a single term in the Senate.
    I dunno. By the accounts I'm reading on FiveThirtyEight, the bigger issue for the GOP is who is coming out of the primaries. Had anyone besides Moore been the GOP nominee, the GOP would've won this seat.

    And Steve Bannon should crawl back under his rock for a while now.
    I'm not sure this sharp repudiation will slow him down. If anything, it may fire him up.

  20. #140
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    Republicans Shouldn’t Assume Roy Moore Was An Outlier

    Alabama is more evidence that the GOP needs to be worried about 2018.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...as-an-outlier/

  21. #141
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    Roger Stone has already started making notes about the Trump administration for his book: The Fall Of Trump

    Also this:
    "It’s painfully obvious Mueller will bring charges," Stone told Vanity Fair. "The theory is Mueller will indict him on some process-related matter.... The only people who don’t seem to know it are [Trump lawyers] Ty Cobb, [John] Dowd, and the president."
    http://www.newsweek.com/painfully-ob...r-stone-747155

  22. #142
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by U-Ute View Post
    Roger Stone has already started making notes about the Trump administration for his book: The Fall Of Trump

    Also this:


    http://www.newsweek.com/painfully-ob...r-stone-747155
    Roger Stone is a clown, and a malicious one at that.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  23. #143
    So, once again we learn that not just anybody can become a Senator.
    "It'd be nice to please everyone but I thought it would be more interesting to have a point of view." -- Oscar Levant

  24. #144
    Quote Originally Posted by U-Ute View Post
    Republicans Shouldn’t Assume Roy Moore Was An Outlier

    Alabama is more evidence that the GOP needs to be worried about 2018.


    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...as-an-outlier/
    I dunno about this guy's methodology - eg "the 30 point swing in Alabama is due to 10 points of this, 10 points of that and 10 points of this other thing", but from a 40,000 foot view, he makes some interesting observations.

    Obama's election led to the Dems losing Kennedy's seat to Scott Brown's election. Trump's election led to Roy Moore's flameout.

    A bit like the climate changes we're seeing, the political climate has bigger oscillations than normal, IMO, as the underlying economic foundation for the middle class is getting smaller and weaker. The rise of Amazon is making a lot of retail workers desperate.

    In 2020, we may hear "Well, Trump turned out to be a disaster, and the GOP tax cut just made the fat cats fatter. This time I'm going with Bernie, even though he's pushing 90. Simplify healthcare. We all should have it, why it's taken this long is a crime".

    The swings are bigger. If Kamala Harris were elected in 2020, there would be a convoy of pickups and shotguns headed to DC, from the red states, getting instruction from Hannity and Rush, on their AM radios. We all thought people lost their minds during the Clinton and W's eras.

    The amplifications just keep getting bigger.

  25. #145
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    I liked this, from Jim Geraghty:

    To the extent there is still a Republican mainstream, Roy Moore isn’t in it. Nationally, this group doesn’t like the idea of thirtysomething men dating teenage girls in general and wasn’t so certain that Moore didn’t do something inappropriate with those four named girls. Whatever their concerns about Islam, they don’t think that Muslims should be barred from holding public office. They’re big fans of all the current constitutional Amendments, not just the first ten. They don’t think the era of slavery was great for family values. They don’t think that you could say America is the focus of evil in the modern world. Most Republicans know that you are not legally required to take the oath of office on a Bible; it’s not clear that Moore campaign spokesman Ted Crockett knew this....

    A lot of the blame for last night’s defeat is being laid at the feet of Steve Bannon, with plenty of justification. Congressman Adam Kinzinger: “Bannon is a RINO. His morally inept strategies are unwelcome here.” Congressman Peter King: “After Alabama disaster GOP must do right thing and DUMP Steve Bannon. His act is tired, inane and morally vacuous. If we are to Make America Great Again for all Americans, Bannon must go! And go NOW!!”

    The thing is . . . go where? He’s not in the White House anymore. It’s not clear that any elected Republicans of significance turn to Bannon for guidance. (Does Trump still talk to him?) Bannon is basically running his own operation, attracting the desperate detritus of past cycles who are hoping for one last comeback shot.
    http://www.nationalreview.com

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  26. #146
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    I really like Megan McArdle’s work. She is smart and is willing to criticize both sides.

    Right-sizing the Power of Republican Insurgents

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...can-insurgents

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  27. #147
    Administrator U-Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ma'ake View Post
    I dunno about this guy's methodology - eg "the 30 point swing in Alabama is due to 10 points of this, 10 points of that and 10 points of this other thing", but from a 40,000 foot view, he makes some interesting observations.

    Obama's election led to the Dems losing Kennedy's seat to Scott Brown's election. Trump's election led to Roy Moore's flameout.

    A bit like the climate changes we're seeing, the political climate has bigger oscillations than normal, IMO, as the underlying economic foundation for the middle class is getting smaller and weaker. The rise of Amazon is making a lot of retail workers desperate.

    In 2020, we may hear "Well, Trump turned out to be a disaster, and the GOP tax cut just made the fat cats fatter. This time I'm going with Bernie, even though he's pushing 90. Simplify healthcare. We all should have it, why it's taken this long is a crime".

    The swings are bigger. If Kamala Harris were elected in 2020, there would be a convoy of pickups and shotguns headed to DC, from the red states, getting instruction from Hannity and Rush, on their AM radios. We all thought people lost their minds during the Clinton and W's eras.

    The amplifications just keep getting bigger.
    FiveThirtyEight is about as good as it gets when it comes to polling and methodology.

    They correctly predicted all 50 states in Obama's 2012 campaign and were the only pollsters out there saying that Trump had a 50/50 chance of winning the 2016 election.

  28. #148
    Quote Originally Posted by U-Ute View Post
    They correctly predicted all 50 states in Obama's 2012 campaign and were the only pollsters out there saying that Trump had a 50/50 chance of winning the 2016 election.
    I'm sure they're good at polling, but this was not all that difficult. There were 45 or so states that everyone got right, and they happened to get the other 5. If everyone just flipped a coin on those 5, about 3% of guessers would end up perfect.

  29. #149
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    I'm sure they're good at polling, but this was not all that difficult. There were 45 or so states that everyone got right, and they happened to get the other 5. If everyone just flipped a coin on those 5, about 3% of guessers would end up perfect.
    But the coinflip states were exactly coinflips. The margin was on the order of two votes per precinct.

  30. #150
    Quote Originally Posted by NorthwestUteFan View Post
    But the coinflip states were exactly coinflips. The margin was on the order of two votes per precinct.
    Yeah, but still just coin flips. If we had done a utahby5 bracket, a handful of posters would have nailed all 50 states just like Silver did.

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