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Thread: Life in the Trump Era, Part 2

  1. #181
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    A log on the fire. I’m posting this not because I like Trump but because I dislike Clinton and her minions.

    Was the Steele Dossier the FBI’s ‘Insurance Policy’?

    http://amp.nationalreview.com/articl...inton-campaign
    Reading that gave me a headache, not because I liked Hillary, but because it is so poorly written.

  2. #182
    Wow.

    Hugh Hewitt, on Meet the Press, described how a presidential candidate's role is to bring different tribes within the party together, using Tim Kaine as an example of somebody who would not be able to do that for Democrats, and named Kamala Harris as somebody who could do that, for Democrats.

    (If that doesn't scream out for a comment by LA, I don't know what would.)

  3. #183
    There is fake news, and there are alternative facts

    But this is Festivus sacrilege. I am going to air my grievances right now.

    RIP Frank Costanza (unless you are still alive)



  4. #184

  5. #185
    Quote Originally Posted by NorthwestUteFan View Post
    That is a bad Photoshop.
    Actually, on second thought it is a pretty good Photoshop and they matched the font and shading. But it still is a Photoshop and isn't out of the realm of crazy things she would say.

  6. #186
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ma'ake View Post
    Wow.

    Hugh Hewitt, on Meet the Press, described how a presidential candidate's role is to bring different tribes within the party together, using Tim Kaine as an example of somebody who would not be able to do that for Democrats, and named Kamala Harris as somebody who could do that, for Democrats.

    (If that doesn't scream out for a comment by LA, I don't know what would.)
    Hugh is almost always wrong about such things but who knows? As I have said before, her record so far has been very left of center, but she could move to the center and the commentariat and big news media (except for Fox News) would help her do that. I'm hoping for Kamala Harris vs. Nikki Haley for POTUS someday. Two women of Indian descent. Would Kamala emhasize her Indian/Tamil or her AA descent? Probably the latter. Nikki identifies herself today as a Christian, but attends both Sikh and Methodist services. Harris states she is a Baptist. What a fun election that would be.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  7. #187
    Administrator U-Ute's Avatar
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    I don’t get this ranting about the FBI being commies thing.

    First of all, we all know that the Enforcement Establishment had always been a liberal bastion. /sarcasm

    But even if it is true, does it really matter? After all, they aren’t the arbiters of justice. In the end they just collect evidence and build a story and it is the judiciary (or Congress in the case of impeachment) that have the final say.

    If he is truly innocent, he should welcome all of this.




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  8. #188
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    Hugh is almost always wrong about such things but who knows? As I have said before, her record so far has been very left of center, but she could move to the center and the commentariat and big news media (except for Fox News) would help her do that. I'm hoping for Kamala Harris vs. Nikki Haley for POTUS someday. Two women of Indian descent. Would Kamala emhasize her Indian/Tamil or her AA descent? Probably the latter. Nikki identifies herself today as a Christian, but attends both Sikh and Methodist services. Harris states she is a Baptist. What a fun election that would be.
    I didn't know Kamala's mom was Tamil. I work with a lot of Tamilians, from Tamil Nadu (and adjacent states) in India, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, we even had a Tamilian from Germany (family was refugees from the civil war in Sri Lanka). I thought Kamala's father is Jamaican(?) Regardless, she would need to run as an American, the daughter/descendent of immigrants, the same lineage 99% of the rest of us have.

    She seems smart enough to know she would have to make a significant turn toward the middle, but it's a long way away, who knows what the political landscape will look like by then. My hunch is the #MeToo energy will have dissipated a bit by then, but the Millennials will really be coming of age politically.

  9. #189
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Kay Coles James just became President of the Heritage Foundation. She succeeds Jim DeMint, who took Heritage to a very conservative social issues-oriented place, quite different from what the think tank had been. (Back in the 1990s, a Heritage guy, Stuart Butler, came up with the individual mandate concept for health care policy, which DeMint thought was borderline socialism.) It’ll be interesting to see what Ms. James does there now. Some conservatives have already raised concerns about her because she worked in one of the Bush administrations (horrors!) and because in her acceptance of the Heritage job she mentioned her plan to be “inclusive.” Obviously the place is going to hell in a handbasket.

    I’m an African-American Woman. Here’s My Advice to Conservatives Wooing My Community.

    http://dailysignal.com/2016/08/29/im...-my-community/

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  10. #190
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    Kay Coles James just became President of the Heritage Foundation. She succeeds Jim DeMint, who took Heritage to a very conservative social issues-oriented place, quite different from what the think tank had been. (Back in the 1990s, a Heritage guy, Stuart Butler, came up with the individual mandate concept for health care policy, which DeMint thought was borderline socialism.) It’ll be interesting to see what Ms. James does there now. Some conservatives have already raised concerns about her because she worked in one of the Bush administrations (horrors!) and because in her acceptance of the Heritage job she mentioned her plan to be “inclusive.” Obviously the place is going to hell in a handbasket.

    I’m an African-American Woman. Here’s My Advice to Conservatives Wooing My Community.

    http://dailysignal.com/2016/08/29/im...-my-community/
    My hunch is Kay Cole James is going to get the Michael Steele treatment - ie, appreciated as a token within Heritage, mostly ignored outside it.

    I've seen the problems she speaks of in the AA community - they're pretty acute. But the source of the problem really hasn't been the conservatives favorite excuse (Lyndon Johnson's War on Poverty, Affirmative Action, social programs).

    The problem is actually much simpler, in my opinion.

    After Civil Rights, those African Americans who were bright and ambitious escaped the segregated circumstances they started in (including my wife, who was in a segregated school 9 years after Brown v Board of Education). What is left in the hood is incredibly concentrated dysfunction, highly resistant to efforts to address it. For example, Betsy DeVos' school choice drive in Michigan has had zero positive effect.

    You see the same stratification phenomenon within families. Among my wife's 7 siblings, 2 took their educational opportunities and eventually became C-class officers of larger corporations and one a business owner, a few ventured out and came back, comfortable in the low expectations of the hood, and one has been in and out of prison.

    It's much like you see within any other families, white, black, Latino, Asian. Among siblings, some are quite successful and have achieved a lot, some have been "average", some have seriously struggled. It's like the old TV drama from the 70s, "Rich Man, Poor Man", about the divergent paths of two brothers.

    The key question is how do we identify and help those at risk early, and guide them to have higher expectations of themselves, help them make better life choices. I don't think there are any easy answers.

    Ms James' appeals within the Heritage Foundation to stimulate better outcomes within the African American community are going to run into the current alarming, widespread problem the nation faces: Opioid abuse, which is responsible for Americans' life expectancy dropping for two consecutive years, and is a problem that disproportionately affects white people.

    The current opioid issue, which is manifested by higher mortality rates for working class whites (while Latinos and African Americans with even lower economic statistics continue to see slightly improving mortality rates) will be "felt" within the conservative community as a tacit tribal issue much more important than trying to make inroads with African American voters.

    (What is yet to be seen is whether having a white face back in the WH will arrest the white mortality decline, as the recent stats are for 2016. There is some reason to think the positive reinforcement of seeing somebody who looks like you do at the helm buoys battered souls, but the economic plight of lower middle class / working class Americans is still on a long term decline, from technology & international competition. Opioids may be a drug that is a bigger issue for those of European ancestry. Back in the my wife's neighborhood, it's certainly not the drug of choice.)
    Last edited by Ma'ake; 12-26-2017 at 07:45 AM.

  11. #191
    The SL Trib's naming of Orrin Hatch as Utahn of the Year was picked up by The Hill: http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3...ring-editorial

    What The Hill didn't include was the Trib's insinuation that Hatch's favorable treatment of Big Pharma helped fuel the Opioid crisis:

    An investigation by
    The Washington Post and CBS’ “60 Minutes”
    found that a law, which Hatch played a key role in, helped fuel the opioid crisis across the country by hamstringing the Drug Enforcement Administration from cracking down on large-scale shipments of the drug.
    http://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/...n-of-the-year/

  12. #192
    Quote Originally Posted by Ma'ake View Post
    The SL Trib's naming of Orrin Hatch as Utahn of the Year
    This is dumb. If an award is supposed to be an honor 98% of the time, make it an honor 100% of the time.

  13. #193
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    This is dumb. If an award is supposed to be an honor 98% of the time, make it an honor 100% of the time.
    It seems like the Trib's attempt at a kiss-of-death for Hatch. That won't be going in any campaign literature as an achievement.

    (It's not as bad as their tortured endorsement of George W. Bush for re-election in 2004, where the Editorial Board seemed to get undercut by the owner (Dean Singleton) at the last minute. That was really weird.)

  14. #194
    Senior Member Scorcho's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ma'ake View Post
    It seems like the Trib's attempt at a kiss-of-death for Hatch. That won't be going in any campaign literature as an achievement.

    (It's not as bad as their tortured endorsement of George W. Bush for re-election in 2004, where the Editorial Board seemed to get undercut by the owner (Dean Singleton) at the last minute. That was really weird.)
    CNN has picked it up as well

    http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/26/politi...une/index.html

  15. #195
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Life in the Trump Era, Part 2

    Quote Originally Posted by Ma'ake View Post
    My hunch is Kay Cole James is going to get the Michael Steele treatment - ie, appreciated as a token within Heritage, mostly ignored outside it.
    I've seen the problems she speaks of in the AA community - they're pretty acute. But the source of the problem really hasn't been the conservatives favorite excuse (Lyndon Johnson's War on Poverty, Affirmative Action, social programs).

    The problem is actually much simpler, in my opinion.
    “Token” is a loaded word and implies not only extreme disingenuousness on the part of Heritage, but also a whiff of racism. I doubt you meant it that way. Heritage is a serious organization, in my experience. I was on a panel there once and spent time with the guys who really run the place. The DeMint era there was a departure for Heritage from a long history of sober and responsible thinking and scholarship. His departure was involuntary, I believe. We’ll see how James does. She looks like a return to Heritage’s roots.
    Last edited by LA Ute; 12-26-2017 at 02:10 PM.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  16. #196
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    “Token” is a loaded word and implies not only extreme disingenuousness on the part of Heritage, but also a whiff of racism.
    You are our token neoliberal on this board, so you have that going for you.

  17. #197
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthwestUteFan View Post
    You are our token neoliberal on this board, so you have that going for you.
    And I appreciate the inclusiveness you have all embraced by allowing me be here. I’m grateful for it every time I post.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  18. #198
    Administrator U-Ute's Avatar
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    The "Narcissist" example from Coaching The Toxic Leader certainly feels familiar.

    And not just because of LA Ute.

  19. #199
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    This is a very interesting piece by the NY Times’ former public editor who is now the WaPo’s media columnist. She still shows some blind spots but is refreshingly open to criticism.

    Polls show Americans distrust the media. But talk to them, and it’s a very different story.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifes...=.9d977e1f09eb

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  20. #200
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    “Token” is a loaded word and implies not only extreme disingenuousness on the part of Heritage, but also a whiff of racism. I doubt you meant it that way. Heritage is a serious organization, in my experience. I was on a panel there once and spent time with the guys who really run the place. The DeMint era there was a departure for Heritage from a long history of sober and responsible thinking and scholarship. His departure was involuntary, I believe. We’ll see how James does. She looks like a return to Heritage’s roots.
    Wait a minute - "roots" is a racially tinged word, too!

    Seriously, I know Heritage is/was a respected think tank, they came up with the complicated framework that was the response to Hillarycare and became a foundation of RomneyCare... until they got thrown under the bus (along with Romneycare and Mitt himself) because of the similarities to Obamacare. I forgot that Jim DeMint was the head of Heritage.

    How does Heritage fit into whatever is left of the conservative think tank ecosystem is an interesting question. There's the Koch Brothers and their growing influence... does anyone else even matter, on the right? I see thinkers like George Will and William Kristol recoiling in horror at what has happened to the Republican party's once proud intellectual tradition.

    Then today I read this funny headline from Alan Dershowitz: "I am not Trump's advocate!" http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefi...n-advocate-for

  21. #201
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ma'ake View Post
    Wait a minute - "roots" is a racially tinged word, too!

    Seriously, I know Heritage is/was a respected think tank, they came up with the complicated framework that was the response to Hillarycare and became a foundation of RomneyCare... until they got thrown under the bus (along with Romneycare and Mitt himself) because of the similarities to Obamacare. I forgot that Jim DeMint was the head of Heritage.

    How does Heritage fit into whatever is left of the conservative think tank ecosystem is an interesting question. There's the Koch Brothers and their growing influence... does anyone else even matter, on the right? I see thinkers like George Will and William Kristol recoiling in horror at what has happened to the Republican party's once proud intellectual tradition.

    Then today I read this funny headline from Alan Dershowitz: "I am not Trump's advocate!" http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefi...n-advocate-for
    What I can say is that Heritage is pretty much modeled after the Reagan tradition, and some of its graybeards are former Reagan types like Ed Meese. I’m not a Reaganite but neither are Trump and his followers. Still, Reagan and his people at least had a clearly expressed and coherent philosophy.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  22. #202
    One key battle is shaping up to be Amazon's Jeff Bezos vs Trump, who is pushing for the Postal Service to raise their rates for making shipments for Amazon:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1EN15O

    Trump has taken on Amazon before, he detests Bezos' Washington Post, etc.

    Does this lead to a much more aggressive strategy of demonizing Amazon to buttress Trump's blue-collar base?

    The economist in me is skeptical that Joe Sixpack is ready to join Trump in attacking Amazon in a big show of solidarity for retail workers. Unless something hits them directly, most people appreciate greater convenience and lower prices.

    The postal service isn't exactly a sympathetic cause
    - to most people they're a notch better than the DMV at best, but still an example of government being horrible at doing something, even though I see USPS trucks making Amazon deliveries - even on Sunday, even in Bountiful Utah! - much more than FedEx and UPS.


    (As a side note, I'm also seeing Amazon deliveries happening by what appear to be free-lancers who drive their own cars. One delivery came from a geezer in a minivan with a bunch of grandkids in the back. That kind of competition could backfire on Trump's drive to get more money out of USPS "last mile" Amazon deliveries.)

    Is Trump's cadre of cheerleaders - Hannity, Rush, Ingraham, etc - ready to start demonizing Amazon? I think most of them probably use Amazon extensively, since they don't want to go to the store. It would be easy for them to be exposed as hypocrites.

    I think this is tempest in a teapot...
    Last edited by Ma'ake; 12-30-2017 at 09:08 AM.

  23. #203
    This is one of the best (short) articles I've read that describes the interplay between economics and politics, and how the economic indicators explain the political populism we're seeing both on the right and the left: https://seekingalpha.com/article/413...ike-1937?ifp=0

    (I hope the author is wrong that we're in an economic period that is an ominous mimic of 1937, but the quantitative analysis and indicators cited are compelling.)

    For those allergic to quantitative analysis & economic graphs, my apologies, but the text does a good job of describing the key indicators making the point.

    Also, a really good definition of populism:

    A social phenomenon that arises from the common man being fed up with 1) wealth and opportunity gaps, 2) perceived cultural threats from those with different values in the country and from outsiders, 3) the “establishment elites” in positions of power, and 4) government not working effectively for them.

    It's (always) unclear how things will play out, but there's a precedent for hoping it won't get to the same excruciating upheaval we saw in the last part of the Great Depression (only ended by the massive mobilization and government spending required by a major war): The Great Depression was really badly handled by government policy, where the Great Recession was handled by Bernanke about as well as it could be.

    Great quote: "If history doesn't always exactly repeat itself, it does rhyme"

  24. #204
    Quote Originally Posted by Ma'ake View Post
    .


    (As a side note, I'm also seeing Amazon deliveries happening by what appear to be free-lancers who drive their own cars. One delivery came from a geezer in a minivan with a bunch of grandkids in the back. That kind of competition could backfire on Trump's drive to get more money out of USPS "last mile" Amazon deliveries.)
    I asked one of those drivers about it and he said - think uber for commercial deliveries.

  25. #205
    Quote Originally Posted by UTEopia View Post
    I asked one of those drivers about it and he said - think uber for commercial deliveries.
    Yup. They’re independent contractors.

    Lower overhead for Amazon as they cut out middle men.

    Salt Lake’s amazon facility is being built. Sometime this year they’ll have an 800,000 square foot facility, same day delivery for a lot of items is coming and those contractors will likely be key


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  26. #206
    Quote Originally Posted by Diehard Ute View Post
    Yup. They’re independent contractors.

    Lower overhead for Amazon as they cut out middle men.

    Salt Lake’s amazon facility is being built. Sometime this year they’ll have an 800,000 square foot facility, same day delivery for a lot of items is coming and those contractors will likely be key.
    Uber, these Amazon contract drivers and all the insanely cheap stuff we get from China/Honduras/Bangladesh at Walmart (and just about every other retailer) are all way under a sustainable cost model for American workers, much like the Walmart workers who are on Medicaid, food stamps.

    The average cost per mile to operate a car is $0.52 (maybe down to the middle 30s in cents for really economical cars), and that's just the operating costs, not salary. When I was a kid we bought Levis for $25 or so... back then. That would be more like $80 now. I bought "Wrangler Authentic, since 1947" jeans from Amazon for $17, with shipping, "Made in Mexico of US cotton" (a NAFTA collaboration).

    How much of the $17 I paid Amazon got to the grandpa in a minivan who delivered it? He just needed some extra cash flow, probably putting off maintenance, tires, etc, on the minivan. (No doubt he had multiple deliveries in a well thought out area, with the GPS on the smart phone keeping him from getting too angry at the grandkids).

  27. #207
    Quote Originally Posted by Ma'ake View Post
    Uber, these Amazon contract drivers and all the insanely cheap stuff we get from China/Honduras/Bangladesh at Walmart (and just about every other retailer) are all way under a sustainable cost model for American workers, much like the Walmart workers who are on Medicaid, food stamps.

    The average cost per mile to operate a car is $0.52 (maybe down to the middle 30s in cents for really economical cars), and that's just the operating costs, not salary. When I was a kid we bought Levis for $25 or so... back then. That would be more like $80 now. I bought "Wrangler Authentic, since 1947" jeans from Amazon for $17, with shipping, "Made in Mexico of US cotton" (a NAFTA collaboration).

    How much of the $17 I paid Amazon got to the grandpa in a minivan who delivered it? He just needed some extra cash flow, probably putting off maintenance, tires, etc, on the minivan. (No doubt he had multiple deliveries in a well thought out area, with the GPS on the smart phone keeping him from getting too angry at the grandkids).
    Most of the contract drivers do it as a second job.

    I recently took a Lyft home. My driver is now driving full time.

    He started out just because he was in need of some cash, never planned on doing it full time, but he said he’s better off now than with his old job.

    Amazon advertises the pay for the drivers at $18-$25/hour.

    A blogger who surveyed 1,150 Uber/Lyft drivers found their Pay was $15.68 and $17.50/hour respectively, not including tips.




    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  28. #208

    Life in the Trump Era, Part 2

    So I’ve actually done two Amazon delivery routes. My nephew going to college does it and was telling me about it and so I had to see how it worked (because I’m actually kind of a junkie for process and automation type stuff).

    It is pretty phenomenal. It is all driven and automated by their app. They assign blocks that you can pick up that fits your schedule. Typically the come in 3-5 hour delivery blocks at $18/hour. You are an independent contractor and so they pay you that full amount and don’t deduct taxes.

    So you show up, check in by scanning a QR code, they give to you a cart, you scan the packages and go. The GPS plans the most efficient route and when you arrive you scan the package to deliver, drop it on the doorstep and take a picture and then it tells you where the next package goes.

    My first route was a 3 hour one and took me about 2 hours and 15 minutes because I wasn’t very smart about it. My second was a 4 hour route and took me 1.5 hours because I got smart.

    The packages have zone numbers on them. I figured out that if you load them in order then you don’t waste time trying to find packages and you can do it quick.

    I taught my nephew how to do that and he says he now can usually do it in about half the time if not 1/3 of the assigned block. That means he makes about $36/hour doing it.

    I was fascinated enough about whether this was a good economically for the deliverer that I created a spreadsheet for my nephew to track his mileage, actual time spent and pay. If you can do it in half the time it is a good thing. Most routes my nephew does are 30-40 miles. Using the standard deduction of 53.5 cents a mile as the real expense means about $15-$20 per block. So about $25-$30 an hour when it is all said and done. He drives and old Honda Civic and so his actual cost is likely much lower.

    A caveat, if you want to use Amazon as your primary income it won’t work. It is great for supplemental income or for college students. I saw a lot of cab drivers doing it actually and my nephew says most there do Uber and Amazon. The reason it won’t work is it isn’t like you can put in 8-10 hours a day doing it. You typically get one 4 hour block for the day, so essentially only working two hours. If you finish early you can’t get another block until your block is over.

    Anyway, sorry for the nerdery on this, but it is pretty amazing stuff. For metro areas Amazon could absolutely do away with UPS, USPS, FedEx, etc. Raising rates on Amazon would just put the nail in the coffin for that.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Last edited by Rocker Ute; 12-30-2017 at 09:58 PM.

  29. #209
    Quote Originally Posted by Rocker Ute View Post
    So I’ve actually done two Amazon delivery routes. My nephew going to college does it and was telling me about it and so I had to see how it worked (because I’m actually kind of a junkie for process and automation type stuff).

    It is pretty phenomenal. It is all driven and automated by their app. They assign blocks that you can pick up that fits your schedule. Typically the come in 3-5 hour delivery blocks at $18/hour. You are an independent contractor and so they pay you that full amount and don’t deduct taxes.

    So you show up, check in by scanning a QR code, they give to you a cart, you scan the packages and go. The GPS plans the most efficient route and when you arrive you scan the package to deliver, drop it on the doorstep and take a picture and then it tells you where the next package goes.

    My first route was a 3 hour one and took me about 2 hours and 15 minutes because I wasn’t very smart about it. My second was a 4 hour route and took me 1.5 hours because I got smart.

    The packages have zone numbers on them. I figured out that if you load them in order then you don’t waste time trying to find packages and you can do it quick.

    I taught my nephew how to do that and he says he now can usually do it in about half the time if not 1/3 of the assigned block. That means he makes about $36/hour doing it.

    I was fascinated enough about whether this was a good economically for the deliverer that I created a spreadsheet for my nephew to track his mileage, actual time spent and pay. If you can do it in half the time it is a good thing. Most routes my nephew does are 30-40 miles. Using the standard deduction of 53.5 cents a mile as the real expense means about $15-$20 per block. So about $25-$30 an hour when it is all said and done. He drives and old Honda Civic and so his actual cost is likely much lower.

    A caveat, if you want to use Amazon as your primary income it won’t work. It is great for supplemental income or for college students. I saw a lot of cab drivers doing it actually and my nephew says most there do Uber and Amazon. The reason it won’t work is it isn’t like you can put in 8-10 hours a day doing it. You typically get one 4 hour block for the day, so essentially only working two hours. If you finish early you can’t get another block until your block is over.

    Anyway, sorry for the nerdery on this, but it is pretty amazing stuff. For metro areas Amazon could absolutely do away with UPS, USPS, FedEx, etc. Raising rates on Amazon would just put the nail in the coffin for that.


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    Very interesting. Thanks.

    With the new Amazon and UPS facilities in SL things will get interesting. You combine those two buildings it’s 1,600,000 square feet.

    Amazon is literally across the street from Fed Ex and a 5 minute drive from UPS.




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  30. #210
    Quote Originally Posted by Rocker Ute View Post
    So I’ve actually done two Amazon delivery routes. My nephew going to college does it and was telling me about it and so I had to see how it worked (because I’m actually kind of a junkie for process and automation type stuff).

    It is pretty phenomenal. It is all driven and automated by their app. They assign blocks that you can pick up that fits your schedule. Typically the come in 3-5 hour delivery blocks at $18/hour. You are an independent contractor and so they pay you that full amount and don’t deduct taxes.
    ...

    For metro areas Amazon could absolutely do away with UPS, USPS, FedEx, etc. Raising rates on Amazon would just put the nail in the coffin for that.
    The Amazon free-lancer I saw yesterday was driving an Audi A8, an older gentleman with his car stuffed with packages. Interesting...

    Hunch - if the USPS is losing money on the Amazon deliveries, it's probably due to employee benefits, like health insurance.

    The Trump tweet feels like an instance of him finding out they're losing money on Amazon deliveries, prompting him to take on Bezos in a twitter attack. (Certainly USPS brass know if they raise rates, they'll lose business.)

    My sense is the Amazon delivery landscape is pretty fluid - I see fewer UPS and FedEx deliveries than I used to, and now see USPS Amazon deliveries blended in with the regular mail run, along with the free-lancers.

    The same-day delivery capability Diehard references, along with the Whole Foods grocery side of Amazon, will do further damage to regular retail... but it may also cut down on air pollution along the Wasatch Front, as fewer people start cold cars to drive 1-4 miles to the store, where the delivery vehicles have warm engines operating efficiently and polluting less.

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