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Thread: Why no G5 school should ever have a shot at the playoffs

  1. #1

    Why no G5 school should ever have a shot at the playoffs

    Iíve looked at every single G5 school since 2004 that has finished the season undefeated: UCF, Western Michigan, TCU, TCU, Boise St, Utah, Boise St, Hawaii, Boise St, Utah, Boise St.

    Only ONE team played 3 P5 schools in the regular season: 2004 Utah Utes.

    Teams that played 2 P5 schools in the regular season: Western Michigan (16), TCU (10), TCU (09), Utah (08).

    Teams that played 1 P5 school in the regular season: UCF (16), Boise (09), Boise (08), Boise (06), Boise (04).

    First of all, stop over-rating Boise State. They played one game a year, every year. They donít deserve s**t.

    Second of all, letís look at 2004 Utah vs the other top 4 teams: USC, Auburn, Oklahoma, Texas.

    Utahís top 3 wins: Texas A&M (7 wins), Arizona (3 wins), North Carolina (6 wins)
    Utahís # P5 games: 3 games

    USCís top 3 wins: Cal (10 wins), ASU (9 wins), 7 win OSU.
    USCís # P5 games: 10 games
    Comparable games to Utah: Utah vs Arizona (23-6) vs USC vs Arizona (49-9)

    Auburnís top 3 wins: Tennessee (10 wins), Georgia (9 wins), LSU (9 wins)
    Auburnís # P5 games: 10
    Comparable games: None.

    Oklahomaís top 3 wins: Texas (11 wins), Texas Tech (8 wins), Colorado (8 wins)
    Oklahomaís # P5 games: 10
    Comparable games: Utah vs Texas A&M (41-21 Utah, 42-35 Oklahoma)

    Texasí top 3 wins: Colorado (8 wins), Texas Tech (8 wins), Texas A&M (7 wins)
    Texasí # P5 games: 9
    Comparable games: Utah vs Texas A&M (41-21 Utah; 26-13 Texas)

    Utah didnít deserve to be in a 4 team playoff over any of those teams. They all accomplished more, had better wins, and had better resumeís for a playoff spot. And Utah had, by far, the best G5 resume of any team out there. It is not fair, to let a UCF or Boise St, who has only played ONE FREAKING POWER FIVE TEAM into the playoffs over a P5 school that has played 9+. And it is not fair to include TCU, Utah, BYU or Boise St in SOS, because all of those teams benefit from playing incredibly weak schedules, and if you put those teams into a P5 conference, they probably wouldnít be ranked either, or have 10+ wins as an opponent.

    No G5 should play for a national title. Their schedule will always make it impossible to build the resume they need to play for a title.

    Who do you kick out of this yearís playoff for UCF? Alabama? Alabama has done a lot more than UCF and is a lot more deserving of a title shot. So is USC, Ohio State and Washington.

    No Boise St team ever had any sort of resume to play for a title. Neither did TCU or 2008 Utah Utes. 2 P5 games is just not good enough. One is laughable.

    Winning one game over a P5 school in a bowl game is very impressive. Try doing that having played Alabama or Washington the week before and WSU the following week. Iíd bet none of those teams would survive a three week stretch of Arizona, Stanford and USC unbeaten. Or WSU, Washington and Colorado. Hell, even last year, USC couldnít survive a four week stretch of Alabama, Stanford, Utah State and Utah. It is too hard.

    These G5 schools are not deep enough to survive. So donít punish Alabama, Ohio State, USC, Washington for beating the grind by letting some team that only played Maryland into the playoff. This is America, where supposedly those who work the hardest get the best shot to succeed. Let the most accomplished teams have the shot at the title.

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by Utah View Post

    These G5 schools are not deep enough to survive. So don’t punish Alabama, Ohio State, USC, Washington for beating the grind by letting some team that only played Maryland into the playoff. This is America, where supposedly those who work the hardest get the best shot to succeed. Let the most accomplished teams have the shot at the title.
    I disagree with most of your post.

    UCF's case this year has nothing to do with USC and Auburn of 2004.

    I know I'm in the minority here, but I dislike that we give a mulligan loss to brand name teams. No way a team that loses to Syracuse should be allowed to play for a national championship. So when you ask who I would have removed from the field to make room for UCF, the answer is Clemson.

    This is America, where we believe everyone should have a chance. That's the American dream. Alabama and Georgia don't have legitimate claims to a title when UCF is not given a shot.

    Finally, the CFP is about entertainment. The UCF game yesterday was the most compelling game of the day for anyone who is not a fan of Georgia, Clemson, Bama, or Oklahoma. We love underdogs. The annual storyline can be more than just "which traditional power will come out on top this season?"

  3. #3
    No Utah grad. should ever get a job over a Stanford grad. They just haven't been refined by significant competition.

  4. #4
    I am convinced our 2004 team would have beat nearly any team in the nation in a one-off game. The 2008 team also had significant strengths (and 17 or so NFL players).

    But there is no way we could defeat 3 or 4 top-level teams without several weeks of prep beforehand.

    In 2008 we benefitted from TCU missing three FGs, came from behind to beat a good Oregon State team (who toughed out a difficult win against a very good USC the week before), and nearly crapped the bed against a horrible New Mexico team. We beat 5 teams who were sub-.500 against weak competition, plus a 3-9 Michigan team. We would not have survived the season in a tougher conference. I did not believe this at the time, but now I get it.

    That said, I am happy that UCF won the game. Good for them! Too bad their entire coaching staff lives in Lincoln, Nebraska now.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by NorthwestUteFan View Post
    In 2008 we benefitted from TCU missing three FGs, came from behind to beat a good Oregon State team (who toughed out a difficult win against a very good USC the week before), and nearly crapped the bed against a horrible New Mexico team. We beat 5 teams who were sub-.500 against weak competition, plus a 3-9 Michigan team. We would not have survived the season in a tougher conference. I did not believe this at the time, but now I get it.
    That is true of nearly every champion in CF history, and it will be true of either Alabama or Georgia this season. There are always some close calls and always some poor opponents.

    Truth is, we have no idea how 2004/2008 Utah would have faired in P5 conference or in a playoff because it didn't happen. There is no way to know.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by UTEopia View Post
    No Utah grad. should ever get a job over a Stanford grad. They just haven't been refined by significant competition.


    I'll also add that you can't politically complain about the significant advantages the haves have over the have-nots and then turn around and demand that the have-nots be kept out of football games with the haves.

    I'll be honest, that while I enjoy being a team that is a 'have' now and the significant amount of money our athletics program enjoys because of it, it makes me pretty sad to see the growing disparity between P5 and G5 schools. 15-20 years go that gap wasn't so wide.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Rocker Ute View Post


    I'll also add that you can't politically complain about the significant advantages the haves have over the have-nots and then turn around and demand that the have-nots be kept out of football games with the haves.

    I'll be honest, that while I enjoy being a team that is a 'have' now and the significant amount of money our athletics program enjoys because of it, it makes me pretty sad to see the growing disparity between P5 and G5 schools. 15-20 years go that gap wasn't so wide.
    When the playoff expands to 8, there either needs to be a G5 auto-birth or the P5 conference need to split off from the G5s entirely.

    With a G5 auto-birth, once every 15 years or so, we'll have a G5 national champion. Those will be the most exciting and remembered moments in CF history.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    When the playoff expands to 8, there either needs to be a G5 auto-birth or the P5 conference need to split off from the G5s entirely.

    With a G5 auto-birth, once every 15 years or so, we'll have a G5 national champion. Those will be the most exciting and remembered moments in CF history.

    No auto-bid, but there has to be a reasonable road to get there. If you have a season where every G5 team has at least 2 losses, they just don't deserve a spot. I'm fine with giving them a spot even if they're not a top 8 team, but not if they're not even a top 20 team, for example.

  9. #9
    I'm not a fan of an auto-bid, but a team like this year's UCF has to be included in an expanded playoff. No way should they get a shot in a 4-team playoff, but a 6-team or 8-team playoff seems to have a place for that kind of team.

    I agree with Sancho that a team like UCF coming in and winning 2-3 games in a real playoff to become the Nat Champ would be amazing. The best thing about March Madness is watching an underdog, have-not type of team come in and surprise a big dog or three.

  10. #10
    I hate the entire concept of a complete "auto bid". If I were to give an ideal solution, I would

    -Move the playoff to 8 teams. The first round games are hosted on campus of the top 4 seeds pre-christmas.
    -The league champion of all 5 P5 conferences and the best G5 team get conditional bids plus two wild cards. The conditions are that the champion must be in the top 10/12/16 (I haven't thought this part through) of the CFP rankings. If a team does not meet that criteria, an additional wild card team is added by the CFP rankings.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by UtahsMrSports View Post
    I hate the entire concept of a complete "auto bid". If I were to give an ideal solution, I would

    -Move the playoff to 8 teams. The first round games are hosted on campus of the top 4 seeds pre-christmas.
    -The league champion of all 5 P5 conferences and the best G5 team get conditional bids plus two wild cards. The conditions are that the champion must be in the top 10/12/16 (I haven't thought this part through) of the CFP rankings. If a team does not meet that criteria, an additional wild card team is added by the CFP rankings.
    This is just about perfect. I'd maybe say top 12.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by UtahsMrSports View Post
    I hate the entire concept of a complete "auto bid". If I were to give an ideal solution, I would

    -Move the playoff to 8 teams. The first round games are hosted on campus of the top 4 seeds pre-christmas.
    -The league champion of all 5 P5 conferences and the best G5 team get conditional bids plus two wild cards. The conditions are that the champion must be in the top 10/12/16 (I haven't thought this part through) of the CFP rankings. If a team does not meet that criteria, an additional wild card team is added by the CFP rankings.
    Iím ok with this...BUT, we need to normalize schedules first. Say, for example, you must play at least 10 P5 schools (not counting conf championship game) and no G5/FCS after second weekend in October.

    Also, in order for a G5 team to be considered, they must play at least three P5 schools, including two in a row.
    Last edited by Utah; 01-02-2018 at 11:20 AM.

  13. #13
    Look at UCFís schedule. Itís pathetic, ala Boise St.

    How can you let UCF in, when at least 1/3 of P5 schools go undefeated with that schedule, and then punish P5 schools for playing teams like Oklahoma and Notre Dame OOC?

    You canít have it both ways.

    G5 are damn lucky Utah and Urban came around, thatís for sure. No G5 has a better resume and without that team, no G5 is ever even in the discussion.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by UTEopia View Post
    No Utah grad. should ever get a job over a Stanford grad. They just haven't been refined by significant competition.
    This is a terrible comparison. UCF played ONE P5 school, 4 win Maryland.

    A better comparison is no SUU grad should get a job over a Stanford grad...and they donít.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Utah View Post
    Look at UCF’s schedule. It’s pathetic, ala Boise St.

    How can you let UCF in, when at least 1/3 of P5 schools go undefeated with that schedule, and then punish P5 schools for playing teams like Oklahoma and Notre Dame OOC?

    You can’t have it both ways.

    G5 are damn lucky Utah and Urban came around, that’s for sure. No G5 has a better resume and without that team, no G5 is ever even in the discussion.
    How about this.........give the "best of" the G5 a conditional bid into an 8 team playoff and see what happens? It takes time for trends to develop (we really don't even have enough data to make a ton of conclusions on a 4 team playoff yet, to be honest). Let's say that after 6 years, the G5 team has yet to advance(assuming a qualifier every year, which is probably a stretch) and they are routinely getting smoked. Cool. They get the boot, or more strict conditions.

    While I admit that its impossible to make it truly fair, I don't think its fair to entirely discredit them.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Utah View Post
    Also, in order for a G5 team to be considered, they must play at least three P5 schools, including two in a row.
    This is fine if something is forcing the schedules to allow it.

    OOC scheduling should be taken away from individual schools. It would make college football better in every way, and it would make the AD job 10x easier.

    I'm on board with UtahMrSports' idea.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Utah View Post
    A better comparison is no SUU grad should get a job over a Stanford grad...and they don’t.
    I know some SUU grads who I would hire over Stanford grads.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    This is fine if something is forcing the schedules to allow it.

    OOC scheduling should be taken away from individual schools. It would make college football better in every way, and it would make the AD job 10x easier.

    I'm on board with UtahMrSports' idea.
    I like you OOC scheduling idea.

    Iíve always said we should let the TV people create the OOC schedules.

    Ideal would Big 12 dissolving, 4 Power conferences, 8 divisions, 8 conf games, 4 OOC games, 2 OOC vs P5, 2 OOC that schools can do what they want with.

    First four weeks are OOC games, tv announces matchups/dates in January.

    Schedules finalized by May.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Utah View Post
    Look at UCF’s schedule. It’s pathetic, ala Boise St.
    Sagarin ranks their schedule at #70. Alabama at #47.

    Clemson was ranked with the #4 schedule - and they had plenty of creampuffs on their road to the playoff, including one who beat them.

  20. #20

  21. #21
    I donít like Sagarin in these cases. It shows a limited picture. For example, if team A loses to the #2 team but plays three terrible teams, they have a higher SOS than team B, who plays 4 teams that can beat them in a row.

    Even though Sagarin says team A played the tougher schedule, team A only played 1 team that could beat them. Team B played 4. Team Bís schedule was a lot harder.

    Look at who they played:

    FIU (8 wins), Memphis (played UCLA and no one else, UCLA had 6 wins), Maryland (4), Cincinnati (4), ECU (3), Navy (7), Austin Peay (FCS), SMU (7), UConn (3), Temple (7), S. Florida (10, only P5 game was a win over 2 win Illinois), Memphis (again, they beat 6 win UCLA and no one else).

    As far as bringing up Clemson, you make my argument for me. The week in, week out grind is real. Why does Clemson get penalized for playing a tough schedule and UCF gets rewarded?

    Why should UCF get in the playoff when their best win was vs...no one, yet Ohio State gets penalized for playing Oklahoma OOC? And Michigan? And Wisconsin?

    Hell, why does Ohio State get penalized for playing Oklahoma and Alabama get rewarded for playing a FSU team that shouldnít have gone bowling? Look at Ohio Stateís last 5 games: Iowa, Mich St, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin.

    Compared to Alabamaís last 5 games: Bye, LSU, Miss St, Mercer, Auburn.

    Whose one loss is more forgivable? Alabamaís, after a pathetic, G5 level schedule leading up to Auburn or Ohio State, who did lose to a bad team, but had to play 3 games that were on the same level as Alabamaís one? And Ohio State went 3-0 and Alabama went 0-1.

    Ohio State should have been in for all the same reasons UCF and Alabama should not have been in.

    Iím all for earning your way in. Earn it. Iíd be all for a rule that says you must play 10 P5 schools not counting the champ game to be eligible for the playoffs and no G5/FCS games after second weekend in Oct.

  22. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Utah View Post
    Iím all for earning your way in. Earn it. Iíd be all for a rule that says you must play 10 P5 schools not counting the champ game to be eligible for the playoffs and no G5/FCS games after second weekend in Oct.
    Wouldnít your last requirement eliminate Utah any time we play BYU at the end of the year (2018)? It would also eliminate all G5 teams as they all play other G5 teams after October.

  23. #23

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Exactly. Claim the 2008 national championship already. In a non-playoff era, such actions should become a little more routine. UCF is just jumping on the bandwagon faster than anyone else, and I commend them for it. But you gotta have multiple major selectors crown you No. 1. Not a majority of them, but at least a smattering. At least Utah has that in 2008.

    Also, given we were top 6 twice in the BCS, I'm against any playoff that allows a G5 to get in with a less than top 6 finish. Mind you, our first top-6 finish came in an era in which there was no national championship game, either. (Expanding the G5 requirement to Top 12 made sense when you consider the extra game involved). Your G5 ceiling for 99 percent of all teams is a NY6 game anyway.

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