Life in the Trump Era, Part 2

[UTEopia]

When I post stuff like this I always feel I have to state my standard disclaimer: I wish we had another Republican in the White House, but I am still rooting for good things to happen. The following describes an interesting phenomenon, although as a Californian I am not thrilled about certain aspects of it:

Can the Trump Economy Trump Trump?

The president’s economic policies are showing marked success, but he may not benefit politically unless he learns how to get out of his own way.

While my 401k appreciates the bounce in the market, I believe it is too early to make any real assessment of Trump's impact on the economy. It would be like me building a new home and determining that the cost is going to be less than anticipated because the cost for digging the for the foundation came in less than anticipated. The final grade will not be known until the full impact of the tax changes are in place for a few years. As with Reagan, the first few years were great - however, when his policies ran their course, we saw the results with the mini-recession in 1988-1989 that caused many real estate developers to lose their properties ( I know, I did work for First Security Bank when we foreclosed on the Stein Ericksen condos at Deer Valley and on several other properties - Wolf Mountain near Powder Mountain. My biggest mistake was not buying a 2 bedroom condo at Steins for $65k in 1988) and many S&L's to go under due to lack of regulation leading to poor lending practices.

[LA Ute]

While my 401k appreciates the bounce in the market, I believe it is too early to make any real assessment of Trump's impact on the economy. It would be like me building a new home and determining that the cost is going to be less than anticipated because the cost for digging the for the foundation came in less than anticipated. The final grade will not be known until the full impact of the tax changes are in place for a few years. As with Reagan, the first few years were great - however, when his policies ran their course, we saw the results with the mini-recession in 1988-1989 that caused many real estate developers to lose their properties ( I know, I did work for First Security Bank when we foreclosed on the Stein Ericksen condos at Deer Valley and on several other properties - Wolf Mountain near Powder Mountain. My biggest mistake was not buying a 2 bedroom condo at Steins for $65k in 1988) and many S&L's to go under due to lack of regulation leading to poor lending practices.

Good points. I should have said I don't give Trump credit for the trend Kotkin describes. (I generally think presidents get too much credit and blame for the economy.)

[UTEopia]

Good points. I should have said I don't give Trump credit for the trend Kotkin describes. (I generally think presidents get too much credit and blame for the economy.)

Presidents and Utah football quarterbacks

[LA Ute]

Human nature being what it is, no party should be surprised when shutdowns backfire. The question is whether Democrats and Republicans have both learned a lesson from the events of this weekend, or whether we are looking at more shutdowns in the future....

Republicans, after all, returned to shutdown tactics in 2013, even though they had earlier failed, which tells us that legislators don’t always take the lessons of history to heart. When you care about an issue very much, it is extremely difficult to admit that there may be no political route to what you want.

Also, the shutdown this weekend represented a further escalation of the nasty game of tit-for-tat that has been eroding both political norms and legislative effectiveness over the last 30 years. One party breaks some norm, and then when Congress changes hands, the other party takes it further, until pretty soon, the norm disappears, and we are in a new, angrier state of “normal.” Each party comes out of these episodes with a lengthening list of the prior violations by the other side, and a growing thirst for vengeance.

Until this weekend, Democrats could say that shutdowns were a peculiar form of Republican insanity. Now it appears that they are bipartisan, which is halfway to being normalized. Even more concerning than the normalization is what it suggests about our politics: Both parties have strong incentives to adopt extremist positions and obstructionist tactics, rather than try to find some middle ground.

On the other hand, both parties have now conclusively demonstrated that shutting down the government is not a way to get what they want. And to Chuck Schumer’s credit, he seems to have realized this fairly quickly. He didn’t drag it out, as the previous shutdowns dragged out; he tried the tactic, realized it wasn’t working, and pulled back before anyone outside of Washington really had time to notice. Which leaves just a little hope that this episode may be less a sign of spreading disease than a sort of vaccination, a weakened dose that staves off a more serious sickness.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...bout-shutdowns