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DrumNFeather
10-14-2013, 06:17 AM
Utah 4-2 (1-2) now heads to Tucson, Arizona to take on the Arizona Wildcats 3-2 (0-2).

Early line on this has Arizona favored by 5.

Obviously, we are riding high off of a huge win over Stanford, and Arizona can now take this as an opportunity to go for a statement win over us. I believe the next two games are going to be the difference between a potentially really solid season, and sneaking into a bowl game 6-6.

The Wildcats won all three non conference games against pretty bad competition (UNLV, UTSA, and Northern Arizona) and have lost both of their Pac 12 contests so far this season. This will be their first home conference game of the year, and it is is their only home game in a 5 game stretch, so they will be hungry.

It's hard to get a read on this team completely, but it appears that they have a fairly athletic QB, who is their second leading rusher, and actually leads the team in rushing TDs.

That being the case, it will be important for our D to put pressure on him, but to maintain their containment so as not to allow the big plays. Arizona will also have seen Hundley's 39 yard TD run on the QB draw, so we'll need to make an adjustment to that as well.

What are your thoughts on the Arizona game?

UTEopia
10-14-2013, 07:57 AM
Now that we have gotten the monkey off our back by beating a good team, we need to continue to move forward. We cannot allow a letdown. I don't see this game a lot differently than I did a year ago. It is still a toss-up in my mind. We need to stop Kadeem Carey, something we could not do a year ago, and contain the QB and make him beat us with his arm. I think you approach defending Arizona the same way we approached USU, BYU and UCLA. Stay in your lanes in the rush and don't let the QB escape from the pocket. This guy is not the same caliber of QB as Hundley or Keeton, but is a better passer and not as good a runner as Hill. Although the defense has improved throughout the year, one thing that continues to hurt us is poor tackling. We cannot continue to let guys escape once we have them in our grasp. Offensively, we have to protect the ball and put pressure on their defense with our diversity. I think we will see a little more power than we did against Stanford.

DrumNFeather
10-14-2013, 10:35 AM
Some numbers:

Arizona is the #3 Rushing team in the Conf, Utah is #6

Utah is #7 in Passing in the Conf, Arizona is #12 with only 808 yards passing this season.

Utah leads the conference in sacks with 20, Arizona only has 6. However, Arizona has 7 ints to Utah's 2.

The QBs:

Travis Wilson: 61.7% Completions, 1640 Yards, 13 TDs, 10 INTs, sacked 8 times, 48 Carries, 283 Yards, 5 TDs
BJ Denker: 54.5% Completions, 808 Yards, 6 TDs, 2 INTs, sacked 7 times, 62 Carries, 276 Yards, 6 TDs

The RBs:

Ka'Deem Carey: 94 Carries, 569 Yards, 5 TDs (4th in the conf)
Bubba Poole: 85 Carries, 441 Yards, 1 TD (7th in the conf)

The WRs:

Drez Anderson, 28 Rec, 582 Yards and 5 TDs

Arizona does not have a player in the top 40 in receiving in the conf.

DrumNFeather
10-14-2013, 10:40 AM
From the Pac 12 Power rankings:

6. Utah: Funny thing with Utah's first two years in the Pac-12: We thought the Utes got lucky not playing Stanford and Oregon in their division. The win over the Cardinal might be a turning point for Utah in the conference. Or the Utes might lose at Arizona on Saturday and come back to earth.

10. Arizona: The Wildcats face three consecutive winnable games starting with a visit from Utah. They become bowl eligible with three more wins and could work their way back into the South Division picture. The Utah game feels like a major measuring stick -- for both teams.

UTEopia
10-14-2013, 11:31 AM
From the Pac 12 Power rankings:

6. Utah: Funny thing with Utah's first two years in the Pac-12: We thought the Utes got lucky not playing Stanford and Oregon in their division. The win over the Cardinal might be a turning point for Utah in the conference. Or the Utes might lose at Arizona on Saturday and come back to earth.

10. Arizona: The Wildcats face three consecutive winnable games starting with a visit from Utah. They become bowl eligible with three more wins and could work their way back into the South Division picture. The Utah game feels like a major measuring stick -- for both teams.

I think this summarizes the way I look at it.

Hot Lunch
10-14-2013, 02:44 PM
I just saw that Arizona has opened as a 5 point favorite in Vegas. Interesting. I expect that money will be put on Utah and that the line will move as we get closer to the game.

SeattleUte
10-14-2013, 04:02 PM
This is 2007 redux, i.e., vast improvement as the season progresses (barring injury). The Utes will destroy Arizona which does not appear as good as last season.

wally
10-15-2013, 11:26 AM
If Whit (master of motivation) is concerned about a let down at Arizona, he needs only put on the ESPNU guys' analysis of the Stanford win:

Guy 1 (don't know names): "Err Stanford blew it at the goal line."

Guy 2: "Hey, cut Stanford some slack they are really an academic institution and these kids are probably struggling through midterms."

Guy 3: "Yeah, midterms, and it is hard to get excited to play Utah."

Also, the game footage hilights consisted of Dres' score and then 2 of Stanfords as well as their goal line "choke job." None of Pooles runs. None of Utah's great defensive plays. Mostly just Stanford "shooting themselves in the foot."

Yeah, I think that there is plenty of motivational material for Whit to get the players back down to earth.

SoCalPat
10-15-2013, 12:39 PM
If Whit (master of motivation) is concerned about a let down at Arizona, he needs only put on the ESPNU guys' analysis of the Stanford win:

Guy 1 (don't know names): "Err Stanford blew it at the goal line."

Guy 2: "Hey, cut Stanford some slack they are really an academic institution and these kids are probably struggling through midterms."

Guy 3: "Yeah, midterms, and it is hard to get excited to play Utah."

Also, the game footage hilights consisted of Dres' score and then 2 of Stanfords as well as their goal line "choke job." None of Pooles runs. None of Utah's great defensive plays. Mostly just Stanford "shooting themselves in the foot."

Yeah, I think that there is plenty of motivational material for Whit to get the players back down to earth.

Any national pundit who says this is lazy as fuck and should be fired. If it's a former player who says it, then they're lying about their past and never played the game to begin with. There's very little that's more satisfying than going on the road and shutting up a loud crowd, and the word has long been out about Utah that we've got fans that get into it.

Please, point out the asshat that said it's hard to get excited to play Utah.

EutawStUtesFan
10-15-2013, 12:44 PM
Any national pundit who says this is lazy as fuck and should be fired. If it's a former player who says it, then they're lying about their past and never played the game to begin with. There's very little that's more satisfying than going on the road and shutting up a loud crowd, and the word has long been out about Utah that we've got fans that get into it.

Please, point out the asshat that said it's hard to get excited to play Utah.

Phill Steele ran with the "Stanford lost due to midterms" in his blog and then tweeted out the correction this morning.

U-Ute
10-15-2013, 12:50 PM
If Whit (master of motivation) is concerned about a let down at Arizona, he needs only put on the ESPNU guys' analysis of the Stanford win:

Guy 1 (don't know names): "Err Stanford blew it at the goal line."

Guy 2: "Hey, cut Stanford some slack they are really an academic institution and these kids are probably struggling through midterms."

Guy 3: "Yeah, midterms, and it is hard to get excited to play Utah."

Also, the game footage hilights consisted of Dres' score and then 2 of Stanfords as well as their goal line "choke job." None of Pooles runs. None of Utah's great defensive plays. Mostly just Stanford "shooting themselves in the foot."

Yeah, I think that there is plenty of motivational material for Whit to get the players back down to earth.

Sounds like a Cougar fan after every BYU loss.

Applejack
10-15-2013, 12:53 PM
I'm not high on Zona's QB, BJ Denker. I think he's the second worst QB in the Pac-12, behind whoever Colorado is throwing out there from week to week. We have to make him, and not Kadeem, beat us. He's not the type of runner (like Chuckie or Tay Hill) that can beat you all day with his legs, and he's not a gunslinger like Mannion. He's really just average at both, so the game plan has to be to put an extra body in the box to try and contain Kadeem, make Denker make quick decisions, and hope you cause some turnovers on the way.

By the way, this is the year to beat U of A - they have every offensive starter returning next year, minus Denker.

SoCalPat
10-15-2013, 12:54 PM
Phill Steele ran with the "Stanford lost due to midterms" in his blog and then tweeted out the correction this morning.

I was aware of the "midterms" excuse from Lou Holtz. More lazy bullshit opinion, but we've allowed ourselves to accept senile old men for who they are.

Jarid in Cedar
10-15-2013, 01:47 PM
I'm not high on Zona's QB, BJ Denker. I think he's the second worst QB in the Pac-12, behind whoever Colorado is throwing out there from week to week. We have to make him, and not Kadeem, beat us. He's not the type of runner (like Chuckie or Tay Hill) that can beat you all day with his legs, and he's not a gunslinger like Mannion. He's really just average at both, so the game plan has to be to put an extra body in the box to try and contain Kadeem, make Denker make quick decisions, and hope you cause some turnovers on the way.

By the way, this is the year to beat U of A - they have every offensive starter returning next year, minus Denker.

Denker just plain sucks. Also, isn't Carey a junior? I can't imagine him sticking around next year.

U-Ute
10-15-2013, 01:57 PM
The good news is that Arizona is a pretty one dimensional team. On top of that, their strength is Carey. With our defense of late, I would rather be trying to stop a rushing attack (BYU, Stanford) than a passing attack (OSU).

Denker's stats are very underwhelming.

Applejack
10-15-2013, 02:48 PM
Denker just plain sucks. Also, isn't Carey a junior? I can't imagine him sticking around next year.

Yes, a junior. Maybe he'll jump, but I never plan on that. I also hope that Ty Montgomery leaves this year.


The good news is that Arizona is a pretty one dimensional team. On top of that, their strength is Carey. With our defense of late, I would rather be trying to stop a rushing attack (BYU, Stanford) than a passing attack (OSU).

Denker's stats are very underwhelming.

I agree. Arizona's offense fits into the type of team that we will be able to contain if we make tackles.

roseparkutes
10-15-2013, 03:05 PM
Lou Holtz is an crazy old man that the whole world has passed him by. With the way the D has played as of late I could see them stopping Carey with ease and Denker sucks! UTES win big! any one making the journey to the game?

Hot Lunch
10-15-2013, 03:33 PM
Sounds like a Cougar fan after every BYU loss.

It is also Cougar fans that are making a big deal about this.

Hot Lunch
10-15-2013, 03:39 PM
I'm not high on Zona's QB, BJ Denker. I think he's the second worst QB in the Pac-12, behind whoever Colorado is throwing out there from week to week. We have to make him, and not Kadeem, beat us. He's not the type of runner (like Chuckie or Tay Hill) that can beat you all day with his legs, and he's not a gunslinger like Mannion. He's really just average at both, so the game plan has to be to put an extra body in the box to try and contain Kadeem, make Denker make quick decisions, and hope you cause some turnovers on the way.

By the way, this is the year to beat U of A - they have every offensive starter returning next year, minus Denker.

The only time I have seen Denker is vs. USC. I thought he was terrible. If we stop KaDeem, we win this game.

The D line has really stepped it up since the Oregon St. game. I expect them to continue this Saturday night and frustrate the hell out Denker.

OrangeUte
10-15-2013, 07:30 PM
Phill Steele ran with the "Stanford lost due to midterms" in his blog and then tweeted out the correction this morning.

Oh boy. I usually like Phil Steele. That's pathetic to even mention that as a reason.

U-Ute
10-16-2013, 10:36 AM
Oh boy. I usually like Phil Steele. That's pathetic to even mention that as a reason.

http://network.yardbarker.com/college_football/article_external/lou_holtz_blames_stanfords_loss_to_utah_on_midterm s/14775353



It might be midterm time at a school like Notre Dame that’s on the semester system, but Stanford, Mr. Holtz, is on the quarter system. That means it’s only week 3 of 10 in the fall quarter on the academic calendar. Midterms typically aren’t for another two weeks, Holtz.

But nice argument. I like where your head’s at.

And as a bonus, Utah did have midterms this week. What’s your explanation there, Holtz?

Oh snap!

DrumNFeather
10-16-2013, 01:20 PM
The line has moved every day and is down to 4 now, I won't at all be surprised if we're looking at being a field goal underdog when all is said and done.

Hot Lunch
10-16-2013, 02:29 PM
Does anyone know how Jacoby Hale is doing health wise? He was a monster vs. BYU. In his 3 plays before he hurt what appeared to be his foot vs. Ucla, he made huge plays when he was in. As much as I love the improvement we have seen in Norris and J Whittingham, Hale's athleticism would be a huge help this game in order to defend Kadeem.

Senioritis
10-16-2013, 02:42 PM
Due to a fit of totally unthinking hysterical happiness, I will be in attendance at this game.

Shortly following the Stanford game, and in the reverent but mind-numbing afterglow of a tremendous Ute win, my wife and I made plans to road trip to Tucson.

With our five children.

And another couple.

And their four children.

In a 15 passenger van.

For 24 driving hours in a 72 hour period.

To freaking Tucson.

This has all of the makings of the Sugar Bowl Hell Bus without any of the booze, the awesome destination, or the program-defining win, but with all of the odor, re-evaluation of one's life priorities, and raw sewage dumping in convenience store parking lots.

Yay for Utah!

Senioritis
10-16-2013, 02:43 PM
Does anyone know how Jacoby Hale is doing health wise? He was a monster vs. BYU. In his 3 plays before he hurt what appeared to be his foot vs. Ucla he made huge plays when he was in. As much as I love the improvement we have seen in Norris and J Whittingham, Hale's athleticism would be a huge help this game in order to defend Kadeem.

Amen!

For all of the progress in the LBs, Hale is clearly the best in all of the areas where Utah's LBs are traditionally as effective as a Lane Kiffin presentation at a media-relations seminar.

Utah
10-16-2013, 02:48 PM
Amen!

For all of the progress in the LBs, Hale is clearly the best in all of the areas where Utah's LBs are traditionally as effective as a Lane Kiffin presentation at a media-relations seminar.

If Hale is hurt, we should just have Paul wear Hale's jersey and toss him out there.

OrangeUte
10-16-2013, 04:57 PM
Due to a fit of totally unthinking hysterical happiness, I will be in attendance at this game.

Shortly following the Stanford game, and in the reverent but mind-numbing afterglow of a tremendous Ute win, my wife and I made plans to road trip to Tucson.

With our five children.

And another couple.

And their four children.

In a 15 passenger van.

For 24 driving hours in a 72 hour period.

To freaking Tucson.

This has all of the makings of the Sugar Bowl Hell Bus without any of the booze, the awesome destination, or the program-defining win, but with all of the odor, re-evaluation of one's life priorities, and raw sewage dumping in convenience store parking lots.

Yay for Utah!

I have never done this for longer than a 4 hour road trip each way. The 15 passenger van will be both a blessing and a curse to you this weekend.

eat a sonoran hot dog at http://www.yelp.com/biz/el-guero-canelo-tucson-2

delicious! Mi Nidito is an excellent Mexican Restaurant. Go to Lindy's Burger for the Mac & Cheese Burger - delicious!

wally
10-16-2013, 04:58 PM
Due to a fit of totally unthinking hysterical happiness, I will be in attendance at this game.

Shortly following the Stanford game, and in the reverent but mind-numbing afterglow of a tremendous Ute win, my wife and I made plans to road trip to Tucson.

With our five children.

And another couple.

And their four children.

In a 15 passenger van.

For 24 driving hours in a 72 hour period.

To freaking Tucson.

This has all of the makings of the Sugar Bowl Hell Bus without any of the booze, the awesome destination, or the program-defining win, but with all of the odor, re-evaluation of one's life priorities, and raw sewage dumping in convenience store parking lots.

Yay for Utah!

I hope that the van is a rental. 9 kids. There will every sort of bodily fluid stain in the upholstery by the time you are through!

LA Ute
10-16-2013, 05:44 PM
I hope that the van is a rental. 9 kids. There will every sort of bodily fluid stain in the upholstery by the time you are through!

The answer. (http://www.ebay.com/itm/like/280901077647?lpid=82)

Sullyute
10-16-2013, 05:53 PM
Due to a fit of totally unthinking hysterical happiness, I will be in attendance at this game.

Shortly following the Stanford game, and in the reverent but mind-numbing afterglow of a tremendous Ute win, my wife and I made plans to road trip to Tucson.

With our five children.

And another couple.

And their four children.

In a 15 passenger van.

For 24 driving hours in a 72 hour period.

To freaking Tucson.

This has all of the makings of the Sugar Bowl Hell Bus without any of the booze, the awesome destination, or the program-defining win, but with all of the odor, re-evaluation of one's life priorities, and raw sewage dumping in convenience store parking lots.

Yay for Utah!

That is awesome! Are there any over/under bets on how many kids make it home?

Utah
10-17-2013, 09:12 AM
Arizona reminds me of Utah the last two years. Solid defense, very good RB, garbage QB. We should win big. Let's hope our boys didn't enjoy the Stanford win too much. A big win (17+ pts) would get us ranked.

Utah
10-17-2013, 09:15 AM
Look at Utah's two losses: UCLA and OSU. UCLA is a top 10 team. IF OSU had beaten EWU, they would be ranked #14 AT WORST. We took two top 15 teams to the last play of the game.

We are a damn good team, and if we come out focused, we win this game. If we come out hungry, we win this game. We are too good to lose this game.

I expect this game to go the same way as the BYU game. Lots of running, conservative game plan, but not risky, not wanting to have a TO that gives Arizona hope. It probably won't be a blowout, but like the BYU game, it won't ever feel like we are going to lose.

sancho
10-17-2013, 09:25 AM
We took two top 15 teams to the last play of the game.

OSU is not a top 15 team. EWU shredded them. SDSU just about beat them.



I expect this game to go the same way as the BYU game. Lots of running, conservative game plan, but not risky, not wanting to have a TO that gives Arizona hope. It probably won't be a blowout, but like the BYU game, it won't ever feel like we are going to lose.


Arizona's offense is much better than BYU's. Arizona's RB is a future NFL star, and their QB -- bad as he is -- is not Taysom Hill bad. On the other hand, Zona's defense is not as good as BYU's.

Devildog
10-17-2013, 10:21 AM
What difference does taking the show on the road make?

That is my concern for this game. We haven't really done it yet this year (BYU is an hour away, and we are familiar with them to the point of expecting to win at their house)... now we have to go and do it week after week.

Arizona is a good enough team to beat us if we show up with less than our best.

For me, this game comes down to coaching experience. If Kyle has the team mentally prepared for the road... we win. There may be some recent - lingering doubts in players minds. The team really struggled on the road with Hayes the last couple years... lets hope Wilson goes out and changes that dynamic immediately.

I think we show up prepared and ready (and expecting to win). If so, we do win.

Edit*

I'd also like to say that I'm glad Arizona is our first big road test. I think they give us the best chance to get our road legs under us. A victory there will go a long way in our confidence for the upcoming weeks.

wally
10-17-2013, 10:56 AM
I'd also like to say that I'm glad Arizona is our first big road test. I think they give us the best chance to get our road legs under us. A victory there will go a long way in our confidence for the upcoming weeks.

Yup. Better to start road trippin' @ Tuscon than @ the Coliseum.

DrumNFeather
10-18-2013, 07:05 AM
Looks like the line finished at -4. I think we'll cover that and then some. Don't get me wrong, Arizona is not an opponent to overlook, and frankly, we're just not good enough to start doing that yet, but this game I think is huge from a momentum standpoint, especially when you consider that many of our compadres in the South could take losses this weekend.

Devildog
10-18-2013, 04:34 PM
This is a big momentum game for them as well. If they lose this one to us (at home) that makes three in a row for them, and sets up a downward trajectory for their season.

We can expect them to bring their A game. Their offensive line and running attack are pretty good. Their QB has struggled but has shown that he is capable of putting together a few decent quarters.

We have to slow up their run game and make them try to beat us in the air.

Drum, you basically said all this anyway on the first page.

I think this is a team we can beat, and that if we play our game, that we will. We need to start winning these conference contests if we are going to be relevant in the PAC anytime soon.

roseparkutes
10-18-2013, 05:29 PM
STOP the run! stop ka deem

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 08:46 AM
Todd McShay picks to upset Arizona.

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OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 08:16 PM
Utes look good in spurts on the opening drive. Too bad we didn't get points on the board. Defense needs to come out without nerves and get their job done.

hostile
10-19-2013, 08:16 PM
Not bad to start. Need to get some positive yardage on first down.

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 08:17 PM
Carey slugs is twice. Come on. Cut that off!

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 08:20 PM
That drive looked too easy.

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 08:21 PM
Well, that wasn't good.

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hostile
10-19-2013, 08:21 PM
Jeez. We need better than that.

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 08:22 PM
I hope the Utes can adjust. Denker looks pretty elusive. Or maybe our tackling is just awful.

sancho
10-19-2013, 08:24 PM
Hope that was just us needing a wake up call. When a RichRod offense is clicking, pretty much nothing slows it down.

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 08:27 PM
How many times this season have we allowed points on our opponent's opening drive? I know we've done it the last three weeks. It's almost like they need to get a feel before they can game plan and adjust. Hopefully it gets better quickly.

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OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 08:29 PM
Lucky Radley with two great runs and dres w a killer block!

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 08:30 PM
Running game clearly opening up. Love Lucky!

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 08:31 PM
Great response. Ok D...your turn.

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hostile
10-19-2013, 08:31 PM
Nice drive. Great pass. Let's go D.

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 08:33 PM
This might be a pretty high-scoring game. I hope the coaches got together with the defense and got them re-combobulated.

hostile
10-19-2013, 08:34 PM
Holy shit.

Edit: saved by a TO

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 08:35 PM
That one looked like a missed assignment, due to the time out being called. Sheesh.

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 08:35 PM
Egads! Saved! That was so ugly! What was the call there? Something about the clock?

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 08:36 PM
Is Denker THAT good at selling the handoff?

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 08:39 PM
Way too much on first and second down.

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mpfunk
10-19-2013, 08:39 PM
I don't get why we struggle so damn much with Arizona's offense.

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 08:42 PM
Huge stop there.

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chrisrenrut
10-19-2013, 08:42 PM
Reilly keeps points off the board!

mpfunk
10-19-2013, 08:43 PM
Great play by Reilly

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 08:43 PM
Awesome stop defense!

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 08:51 PM
Oh Travis...

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LA Ute
10-19-2013, 08:51 PM
Well, put that on Travis' "bad decision" list.

mpfunk
10-19-2013, 08:51 PM
Travis eliminates all the good work that the defense did. Damnit Travis. These interceptions and bad decisions are getting really frustrating.

dfb32
10-19-2013, 08:52 PM
The defense makes a huge play, and the offense does that.

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 08:53 PM
Offense needs to get it together. Yikes. Arizona seems to want it more. We seems sluggish and to lack any intensity.

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 08:53 PM
Well, we get it right back now. Let's get some momentum back.

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 08:57 PM
Offense needs to get it together. Yikes. Arizona seems to want it more. We seems sluggish and to lack any intensity.

Yep, and the play calling there is playing right into their D's hands.

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LA Ute
10-19-2013, 08:58 PM
What this team needs right now is a takeaway. It would help if Carey didn't get 7 yards every first down.

mpfunk
10-19-2013, 08:59 PM
I still don't understand why we struggle so much with Arizona's offense. They are just beating the shit out of us on the ground.

sancho
10-19-2013, 09:00 PM
I still don't understand why we struggle so much with Arizona's offense. They are just beating the shit out of us on the ground.

Well, they do it everyone. That's who they are.

Wilson has missed pretty badly on his downfield attempts so far.

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 09:02 PM
Good job defense.

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 09:02 PM
It's time to take some more shots downfield.

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 09:02 PM
Nice to see Rowe make a few plays. Feels like he has had a rough year back there.

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OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 09:04 PM
It's time to take some more shots downfield.

Doh!

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 09:04 PM
Sigh.

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LA Ute
10-19-2013, 09:05 PM
I hope this isn't a long night. Travis seems snakebit.

mpfunk
10-19-2013, 09:06 PM
Wilson is skilled, but he may not have the decision making ability necessary to be a good QB.

sancho
10-19-2013, 09:07 PM
I hope this isn't a long night. Travis seems snakebit.

As much as Travis has improved in short-to-mid-range accuracy, he has yet to really connect well on things downfield.

mpfunk
10-19-2013, 09:07 PM
Gonna be a long night.

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 09:08 PM
For a guy who's not supposed to be a good passer, Denker is doing pretty dang well. He also sells that fake handoff beautifully.

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 09:08 PM
Typically, the ref stands over the ball to allow you to sub. They aren't doing that tonight.

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mpfunk
10-19-2013, 09:11 PM
Typically, the ref stands over the ball to allow you to sub. They aren't doing that tonight.

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Is Arizona not subbing on offense? If they aren't sending in subs, they defense doesn't get a chance to substitute.

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 09:12 PM
Are we to assume Bubba is done for the night?

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mpfunk
10-19-2013, 09:15 PM
We really should be able to move the ball on the ground against this undersized defensive line.

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 09:19 PM
Putting tons of pressure on the defense to keep getting stops. Tracks looks hurt or sick.

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 09:20 PM
Finger issue for Wilson?
Damn I would give anything for a turnover right now.

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 09:30 PM
I was afraid that would be the first Phillips miss. Ute Karma has taken the night off. That miss, plus the pick-six, loom large. It could be 14-10.

Now, call me Polyanna, but this game is not out of hand. It all depends on the halftime adjustments and whether Wilson can play and not have the heebie-jeebies.

mpfunk
10-19-2013, 09:31 PM
Well shit. That half of football sucked.

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 09:32 PM
We looked pretty flat in that first half. Gonna need a stop out of the gate to start the second half, and get some of our guys out in space.

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hostile
10-19-2013, 09:36 PM
That was painful to watch. Let's see what adjustments are made at halftime.

Hot Lunch
10-19-2013, 09:41 PM
That was the most pathetic half of football I have seen out of the Utes in awhile. Let's Whitt rips them a new one so we see a different team this second half. That was jut painful.

sancho
10-19-2013, 09:44 PM
That was the most pathetic half of football I have seen out of the Utes in awhile. Let's Whitt rips them a new one so we see a different team this second half. That was jut painful.

Since the last time we played in that state.

Hot Lunch
10-19-2013, 09:49 PM
Since the last time we played in that state.

I texted my buddy that same thing. Told him we need to stop playing games in the state of Arizona.

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 09:50 PM
13 points off turnovers. Ouch.

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 09:52 PM
That personal foul looked bogus to me.

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 09:54 PM
Well, that series was a missed opportunity.

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 09:56 PM
Opportunity knocks.

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 09:56 PM
Huge turnover. Punch it in.

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LA Ute
10-19-2013, 09:57 PM
Back in business!

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 09:57 PM
Back in business!

Gotta build off this.

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dfb32
10-19-2013, 09:58 PM
I like the use of York on the goal line.

SeattleUte
10-19-2013, 09:59 PM
why is Schultz qb?

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 10:01 PM
Big big big td there.

Now we have to hold serve on defense.

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 10:01 PM
why is Schultz qb?

Wilson's hand is hurt.

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 10:02 PM
Smothered!!!!!

chrisrenrut
10-19-2013, 10:03 PM
Nice, 2nd 4th down stop tonight!

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 10:03 PM
I love it!!!!!

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 10:04 PM
Not gonna lie, that got me out of my seat.

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OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 10:05 PM
Not gonna lie, that got me out of my seat.

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Ditto!

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 10:06 PM
This is the time to drive it home that we want it.

Mormon Red Death
10-19-2013, 10:07 PM
why is Schultz qb?

wilson hurt in hand

Applejack
10-19-2013, 10:08 PM
Fitzgerald! Nice call, Uncle Dennis.

chrisrenrut
10-19-2013, 10:09 PM
I'm liking all the touch backs on kick offs tonight.

Hot Lunch
10-19-2013, 10:10 PM
Wow, what a difference 6 minutes will make.

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 10:11 PM
Defense plays huge there!

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 10:11 PM
We've taken them out of their game plan.

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dfb32
10-19-2013, 10:12 PM
Apparently the team just realized they have a game today.

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 10:12 PM
I wonder why Jamal isn't in the studio this game.

Applejack
10-19-2013, 10:13 PM
One of the most interesting things about this season has been the use of the running backs. Poole sat for a long time in the first half - the announcers thought it was a concussion, but I think that the coaches were just rotating in the other backs.

Last week was all Poole with a small smattering of Lucky. This week we've seen a lot more of York. I think the coaches are honest when they say that we don't have a feature back (although Poole is clearly the 1A)

Applejack
10-19-2013, 10:16 PM
The announcer just said that Utah doesn't have a road since joining the Pac-12. He's a moran.

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 10:20 PM
Palamo comes up big!

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 10:22 PM
The Arizona O is starting to look like it did in the first half again.

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 10:24 PM
Too bad Rowe did that. The ball was so far under thrown.

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 10:26 PM
3-0 on defense when they go for it on 4th.

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 10:26 PM
Great field position. We need to score and get a cushion.

chrisrenrut
10-19-2013, 10:26 PM
3rd stop on 4th down this game. Defense coming up big in the 2nd half. Now I'd like to see a take away or two.

Applejack
10-19-2013, 10:27 PM
RichRod is also a moran.

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 10:27 PM
2 huge sacks. Dammit!

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 10:27 PM
Man. Is Poutasi really a left tackle?

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 10:28 PM
We've come back down to earth a bit.

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Hot Lunch
10-19-2013, 10:28 PM
Poutasi is awful. He is a drive killer. Holds, sacks you name it. He had one good game. Other than that, he has been bad this year.

Applejack
10-19-2013, 10:28 PM
Poutasi getting worked.

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 10:28 PM
2 huge sacks. Dammit!

Poutasi beaten badly both times.

sancho
10-19-2013, 10:28 PM
2 huge sacks. Dammit!

Wilson has had an entire year to learn how to read and adjust to a blitz. Schultz' turn. Hopefully he can learn in just a few minutes.

Applejack
10-19-2013, 10:29 PM
What's his deal? For those that can analyze offensive lineman, is he too small, not quick enough, not smart enough?

Hot Lunch
10-19-2013, 10:30 PM
Man. Is Poutasi really a left tackle?

He isn't. His true position is guard. He is too slow to play LT.

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 10:30 PM
Wilson has had an entire year to learn how to read and adjust to a blitz. Schultz' turn. Hopefully he can learn in just a few minutes.

Schultz played them correctly by not trying to throw the ball away.

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 10:31 PM
AZ is going to keep exploiting Poutasi. I hope we plan for that.

sancho
10-19-2013, 10:32 PM
Schultz played them correctly by not trying to throw the ball away.

Part of his job is to adjust before the snap.

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 10:35 PM
So far not seeing Denker's deficiencies as a passer.

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 10:35 PM
How about we teach our DBs to turn around. Is that a function of having your secondary coach be a lawyer and not really a coach?

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OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 10:36 PM
Denker just burned us badly.

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 10:37 PM
How about we teach our DBs to turn around. Is that a function of having your secondary coach be a lawyer and not really a coach?

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Long story. They're taught to do it exactly as they are doing it.

BTW, that 2-point conversion looked far too easy.

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 10:38 PM
Wilson is out for the game, I guess?

chrisrenrut
10-19-2013, 10:38 PM
How about we teach our DBs to turn around. Is that a function of having your secondary coach be a lawyer and not really a coach?

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Whittingham has always taught them to not look back.

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 10:40 PM
Whittingham has always taught them to not look back.

Interesting. Doesn't seem to be working tonight.

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DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 10:42 PM
How much does the D have left?

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LA Ute
10-19-2013, 10:42 PM
Wonder why Dres has been invisible tonight.

Mormon Red Death
10-19-2013, 10:43 PM
anyone listening to the radio? is wilson done for the game?

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 10:43 PM
Right now a big play -- preferably a TO -- would be very welcome.

chrisrenrut
10-19-2013, 10:45 PM
Interesting. Doesn't seem to be working tonight.

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My understanding is when they turn, they lose 1/2 a step and tend to give up more big plays. It's the cornerbacks responsibility to watch the receiver and prevent YAC, it is safeties who watch the ball and look to intercept.

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 10:48 PM
Sometimes you have to call for the fair catch. That looked painful.

Huge set of downs coming up here.

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 10:49 PM
This is an important series. If we tie it up now there's plenty of time for us to nut up and win the game.

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 10:50 PM
My understanding is when they turn, they lose 1/2 a step and tend to give up more big plays. It's the cornerbacks responsibility to watch the receiver and prevent YAC, it is safeties who watch the ball and look to intercept.

Certainly makes sense, just feels like the way we've executed it just begs for a flag. I trust Whit, just not our team attorney/ d backs coach. :)

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chrisrenrut
10-19-2013, 10:51 PM
It seems we are being cute. It's like BJ/Erickson think AZ thinks we will just run with our 2nd string QB, so they keep passing. We need to get back to running effectively.

Applejack
10-19-2013, 10:59 PM
It seems we are being cute. It's like BJ/Erickson think AZ thinks we will just run with our 2nd string QB, so they keep passing. We need to get back to running effectively.

They are really stacking the box right now, daring us to throw over the top.

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 11:00 PM
It seems we are being cute. It's like BJ/Erickson think AZ thinks we will just run with our 2nd string QB, so they keep passing. We need to get back to running effectively.

Gotta come up with something on our next series (assuming a stop on D). I hope DE is scheming right now. Also, hang on to your lucky charms and hope for a TO. We're due!

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 11:01 PM
What did I say???

Mormon Red Death
10-19-2013, 11:02 PM
Gotta come up with something on our next series (assuming a stop on D). I hope DE is scheming right now. Also, hang on to your lucky charms and hope for a TO. We're due!

way to call it!

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 11:08 PM
Of all nights for Andy to come down to earth....

OrangeUte
10-19-2013, 11:08 PM
Sloppiness.

chrisrenrut
10-19-2013, 11:08 PM
Arghhh!

mpfunk
10-19-2013, 11:10 PM
Kickers are assholes and should never be trusted.

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 11:11 PM
That failure to turn that TO into points was huge.

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 11:14 PM
Man, we just aren't there yet.

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mpfunk
10-19-2013, 11:14 PM
Well fuck. Way to capitalize on the big win against Stanford.

hostile
10-19-2013, 11:14 PM
Nuts. Nearly 250 yards for Carey. He has killed us.

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 11:17 PM
Man, we just aren't there yet.

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As I think you said, this is the year before the year.

Still, that play was a huge breakdown by the D. Watch the replay. Carey was hardly touched and the Ute players on that right side of the line did not stay in their rushing lanes.

SeattleUte
10-19-2013, 11:17 PM
We'd have won with a healthy Wilson

hostile
10-19-2013, 11:19 PM
We'd have won with a healthy Wilson
Maybe. Other than the flea flicker Shulz hasn't done much.

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 11:20 PM
Is that the first time Dres has touched the ball tonight? He has been invisible.

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 11:22 PM
We'd have won with a healthy Wilson

Wilson was pretty ineffective, and before his hand took him out, his problem was between the ears.

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LA Ute
10-19-2013, 11:23 PM
Wilson was pretty ineffective, and before his hand took him out, his problem was between the ears.

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I agree. Still, we'll never know if he would have shaken it off and competed. He is a tough kid.

DrumNFeather
10-19-2013, 11:25 PM
I agree. Still, we'll never know if he would have shaken it off and competed. He is a tough kid.

Totally agree. We just cannot come out flat like this in the Pac 12.

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chrisrenrut
10-19-2013, 11:27 PM
Is that the first time Dres has touched the ball tonight? He has been invisible.

He caught 2 passes for 20 yards. He caught Shultz' pass down to the 1 yard line, just before York ran his TD.

Seems that their 3-3-5 defense gave our passing game fits. Other than the flea flicker, it never seemed that our receivers got much separation. And our QB play was not good enought to make passes in tight spaces.

sancho
10-19-2013, 11:29 PM
I agree. Still, we'll never know if he would have shaken it off and competed. He is a tough kid.

Let's hope he's okay for USC next week. If he can't go, I have no idea what to suggest for the offense.

LA Ute
10-19-2013, 11:32 PM
Totally agree. We just cannot come out flat like this in the Pac 12.

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Right. Ugly wins don't happen in this conference, and if we'd won it would have been an ugly one.

SoCalPat
10-19-2013, 11:45 PM
I love Kyle, but sometimes his football mind takes a strange timewarp back to the 1800s.

There's one spot in which coaches become equal with fans when it comes to decision making, and that's when time, score and the fourth quarter come into play. Example: Bear Bryant himself could not justify, in any era, to kick a PAT to go up 2 with 2 minutes to play.

The most brain-dead decision Kyle has made in this instance prior to tonight, that I can recall, came in 2009 Wyoming (Jordan Wynn's first action), when we score a TD mid-fourth to go up 5, and Kyle kicks the PAT to go up 6. You never want to lead by just 6 in the fourth quarter when the possibility is there to lead by 7. If you have to ask why, I can't help you. And that we won that game makes little difference as well. It gave us insight into Kyle's mind on these matters. It was only a matter of time before his thinking caught up to us and cost us a game.

Tonight's decision to kick a FG, down 4 with 3:49 to go, did just that. What on God's green earth could've possessed Kyle to kick the FG there? You still need to play defense. You still need to (presumably) drive 40-50 yards. You have only two timeouts. Unlike the NFL, you don't have the 2-minute warning to give you another TO. If Arizona gets a first down, the game is essentially over. Even if you go for it on fourth down and don't succeed, EVERYTHING mentioned above is still in play. You still need a score to win (albeit a TD instead of a FG). Are you telling me, after all of that, you can't stomach the "risk" to get 4 yards?

Instead of playing to win, Kyle let his trust (or lack thereof) in Adam Schulz get in the way of thinking what had to be done to win the game (and Kyle cannot, with a straight face, make an argument that kicking the FG there put Utah closer toward winning the game). You can bet with a healthy Travis, we go for it in that spot. Coaches are great at not being results-based thinkers -- you can still get a great outcome via a blown assignment, yet coaches will focus on the one player who "messed up" even though it didn't have a negative effect on the team as a whole. Kyle was too damn worried about putting the game in Schulz's hands that he didn't realize he was putting the game in Arizona's hands by trying a FG there.

I'm rarely disappointed in Kyle, but I am tonight.

chrisrenrut
10-19-2013, 11:55 PM
I love Kyle, but sometimes his football mind takes a strange timewarp back to the 1800s.

There's one spot in which coaches become equal with fans when it comes to decision making, and that's when time, score and the fourth quarter come into play. Example: Bear Bryant himself could not justify, in any era, to kick a PAT to go up 2 with 2 minutes to play.

The most brain-dead decision Kyle has made in this instance prior to tonight, that I can recall, came in 2009 Wyoming (Jordan Wynn's first action), when we score a TD mid-fourth to go up 5, and Kyle kicks the PAT to go up 6. You never want to lead by just 6 in the fourth quarter when the possibility is there to lead by 7. If you have to ask why, I can't help you. And that we won that game makes little difference as well. It gave us insight into Kyle's mind on these matters. It was only a matter of time before his thinking caught up to us and cost us a game.

Tonight's decision to kick a FG, down 4 with 3:49 to go, did just that. What on God's green earth could've possessed Kyle to kick the FG there? You still need to play defense. You still need to (presumably) drive 40-50 yards. You have only two timeouts. Unlike the NFL, you don't have the 2-minute warning to give you another TO. If Arizona gets a first down, the game is essentially over. Even if you go for it on fourth down and don't succeed, EVERYTHING mentioned above is still in play. You still need a score to win (albeit a TD instead of a FG). Are you telling me, after all of that, you can't stomach the "risk" to get 4 yards?

Instead of playing to win, Kyle let his trust (or lack thereof) in Adam Schulz get in the way of thinking what had to be done to win the game (and Kyle cannot, with a straight face, make an argument that kicking the FG there put Utah closer toward winning the game). You can bet with a healthy Travis, we go for it in that spot. Coaches are great at not being results-based thinkers -- you can still get a great outcome via a blown assignment, yet coaches will focus on the one player who "messed up" even though it didn't have a negative effect on the team as a whole. Kyle was too damn worried about putting the game in Schulz's hands that he didn't realize he was putting the game in Arizona's hands by trying a FG there.

I'm rarely disappointed in Kyle, but I am tonight.

I'm sure you'll disagree, but I agreed with his decision. My thoughts at that point were:

1-we we need to score twice to win

2- there are 4 minutes left

3- our defense has stopped AZ 5 times this half, so I feel pretty good about them being able to do it again.

if you are playing to win, you take what appear to be easy (automatic) points. Unfortunately, Andy did not live up to his nickname tonight.

SoCalPat
10-20-2013, 12:00 AM
I'm sure you'll disagree, but I agreed with his decision. My thoughts at that point were:

1-we we need to score twice to win

2- there are 4 minutes left

3- our defense has stopped AZ 5 times this half, so I feel pretty good about them being able to do it again.

if you are playing to win, you take what appear to be easy (automatic) points. Unfortunately, Andy did not live up to his nickname tonight.

What are you talking about? We were down 4 when we opted to kick the FG rather than going for it.

chrisrenrut
10-20-2013, 12:34 AM
What are you talking about? We were down 4 when we opted to kick the FG rather than going for it.

Yep, my bad. I don't know why, but I was thinking we were down by a touchdown. Hopefully that was not the same reason Kyle made that decision :)

Being down 4, I completely agree that the field goal makes no sense. The only thing I can think of is that he had no faith at all in Schulz being able to lead the team to the end zone at all the rest of the night.

LA Ute
10-20-2013, 07:02 AM
Has anyone heard how bad Wilson's hand/finger injury is?

U-Ute
10-20-2013, 07:41 AM
I wonder why Jamal isn't in the studio this game.

He was on the road calling one of the games broadcast earlier.

U-Ute
10-20-2013, 08:04 AM
I was pretty damn frustrated when I climbed into bed last night. The fall back to earth after the Stanford win is going to leave quite a mark. But while I was wrestling the night demons while negotiating a deal with the universe for a win against USC, I realized that the universe was just asking too much. The reality is that road wins just are not easy accomplishments in the PAC-12. The only road team to win yesterday was Oregon State at Cal, which counts as a road win as much as that one time when the Harlem Globetrotters beat the Washington Generals.

Anyone who predicted ASU running UW out of the stadium this weekend raise your hand and claim your prize: a hearty slap on the back and a prescription for some psychotropics.

So, while this loss certainly stings, I certainly don't think that things are as bad as they look.

Snowman
10-20-2013, 08:41 AM
1-3 in conference with two of those losses at home is very bad. The problem is we're still playing like a Mountain West team. We don't get to gear up for TCU and then go play New Mexico State or Air Force or whatever. In interview after interview we said 'Stanford is behind us we need to move on.' But instead of coming out like Arizona is a team capable of beating ANYONE we came out lackluster and seemingly unconcerned. As a result, our program took a major blow last night. I know our new facilities will help with recruiting but you can't get what you need when you're playing the role of whipping post in the conference. It may have already happened, but if not there's a real possibility we're going to get stuck in a rut as a long term lower echelon PAC 12 team. And over the next few years Oregon will fade but tradition will rise again at USC and UCLA. And we'll be stuck in the south with these teams in permanently advantageous situations. That's what's on the line. We have to find a way to win immediately unless we want to get very used to these types of losing scenarios for years and years.

LA Ute
10-20-2013, 09:00 AM
We have to win immediately unless we want to get very used to these types of losing scenarios for years and years.

What you say is certainly a plausible nightmare scenario but not inevitable. The best thing this team can do now is overachieve for the rest of the season. I hope they do.

I am not going to get all wrapped up in high expectations, however, because we have some serious weaknesses. For example, if you happened to record the game, go back and watch what was happening on the left side of our offensive line all night. Obviously Arizona watched game film too. That O-line weakness, and the lack of speed among our receivers generally, will be a deadly combination for our ability to score points.

6-6 with a healthy Wilson is reasonable. Without him we may be 5-7 or worse. But let's keep hoping and cheering.

Snowman
10-20-2013, 09:34 AM
Zona was pressuring our QB's with 3, sometimes 2, and at least once with only 1. They had ten men playing back and still penetrated our oline on that one play. I don't have PACTV so I listened to game on Kall Internet but that's what they were saying.

And don't get me wrong. I'm not giving up. Plus, even if my hope dies my support will never die. It's not even a choice with me.

UTEopia
10-20-2013, 10:52 AM
I love Kyle, but sometimes his football mind takes a strange timewarp back to the 1800s

The most brain-dead decision Kyle has made in this instance prior to tonight, that I can recall, came in 2009 Wyoming (Jordan Wynn's first action), when we score a TD mid-fourth to go up 5, and Kyle kicks the PAT to go up 6. You never want to lead by just 6 in the fourth quarter when the possibility is there to lead by 7. If you have to ask why, I can't help you. And that we won that game makes little difference as well. It gave us insight into Kyle's mind on these matters. It was only a matter of time before his thinking caught up to us and cost us a game.

Tonight's decision to kick a FG, down 4 with 3:49 to go, did just that. What on God's green earth could've possessed Kyle to kick the FG there? You still need to play defense. You still need to (presumably) drive 40-50 yards. You have only two timeouts. Unlike the NFL, you don't have the 2-minute warning to give you another TO. If Arizona gets a first down, the game is essentially over. Even if you go for it on fourth down and don't succeed, EVERYTHING mentioned above is still in play. You still need a score to win (albeit a TD instead of a FG). Are you telling me, after all of that, you can't stomach the "risk" to get 4 yards?

Instead of playing to win, Kyle let his trust (or lack thereof) in Adam Schulz get in the way of thinking what had to be done to win the game (and Kyle cannot, with a straight face, make an argument that kicking the FG there put Utah closer toward winning the game). You can bet with a healthy Travis, we go for it in that spot. Coaches are great at not being results-based thinkers -- you can still get a great outcome via a blown assignment, yet coaches will focus on the one player who "messed up" even though it didn't have a negative effect on the team as a whole. Kyle was too damn worried about putting the game in Schulz's hands that he didn't realize he was putting the game in Arizona's hands by trying a FG there.

I'm rarely disappointed in Kyle, but I am tonight.

I think you are dead wrong about it being a brain-dead decision. I think it is a decision that can be fairly debated, but I don't think it is clear cut. It is 4th and 4. We have again been terrible at 3rd down conversions having just gained 0 yards. (Although I have nothing to back this up, I believe that if we get 2 or more yards on 3rd and 4 that he goes for it on 4th down, but that is beside the point.)

We are down 4 with 3:49 to go. The defense has played well. You make the field goal and get the ball back and you only need a FG to win. I think it is a totally defensible decision and if it had gone down that way it would have been the best decision in the world.

concerned
10-20-2013, 11:22 AM
I think you are dead wrong about it being a brain-dead decision. I think it is a decision that can be fairly debated, but I don't think it is clear cut. It is 4th and 4. We have again been terrible at 3rd down conversions having just gained 0 yards. (Although I have nothing to back this up, I believe that if we get 2 or more yards on 3rd and 4 that he goes for it on 4th down, but that is beside the point.)

We are down 4 with 3:49 to go. The defense has played well. You make the field goal and get the ball back and you only need a FG to win. I think it is a totally defensible decision and if it had gone down that way it would have been the best decision in the world.

I think you are right. Schultz kept the ball on 3rd and it even lost yardage, I think. Had he handed off, the back had a clear lane for the 1st down. 4th and 1 or 2 and we would have gone for it. Denham was out; Hatfield was in; our receivning corps was in disarray at that point, with a backup qb.

U-Ute
10-20-2013, 12:14 PM
I think our inexperienced offensive line got exposed last night.

In the past (back in the days of AFA and BYU), I've heard that the stacked 3-3-5 puts a lot of pressure on the offensive line because it is difficult to determine, pre-snap, where the pressure is coming from. You have to work together on the fly to contain the pressure after the snap.

sancho
10-20-2013, 12:45 PM
but if not there's a real possibility we're going to get stuck in a rut as a long term lower echelon PAC 12 team.

We are there now. The 3 year south power ranking is: UCLA, USC, ASU, Zona, Utah, CU. I was really hoping we would overtake Zona this year on that ladder, but it's likely not happening now. But to move up and stay up, it will have to be one rung at a time. Arizona remains the team with the target on its back.

sancho
10-20-2013, 12:48 PM
I think you are right. Schultz kept the ball on 3rd and it even lost yardage, I think. Had he handed off, the back had a clear lane for the 1st down. 4th and 1 or 2 and we would have gone for it. Denham was out; Hatfield was in; our receivning corps was in disarray at that point, with a backup qb.

Yeah, we can debate that decision, but in the end, we were outplayed, especially in the 1st and 4th quarters. We wasted some great opportunities, and we had to go with a back-up QB. How often to backups come in and do well with no game prep? Next to never. I got my hopes up with Schultz' first pass and then the flea flicker. But there was too much pressure too quickly for him.

SoCalPat
10-20-2013, 12:56 PM
I think you are dead wrong about it being a brain-dead decision. I think it is a decision that can be fairly debated, but I don't think it is clear cut. It is 4th and 4. We have again been terrible at 3rd down conversions having just gained 0 yards. (Although I have nothing to back this up, I believe that if we get 2 or more yards on 3rd and 4 that he goes for it on 4th down, but that is beside the point.)

We are down 4 with 3:49 to go. The defense has played well. You make the field goal and get the ball back and you only need a FG to win. I think it is a totally defensible decision and if it had gone down that way it would have been the best decision in the world.

Nobody in today's game kicks field goals down 4-6 points facing the situation we did last night. We will gain 4 yards far more often than we will make the FG, force a punt and have an inexperienced QB lead a hurry-up drive into FG range and make another FG. Or are you saying that the latter course of action is more preferable?

The argument you're making for kicking the FG is 100 percent accurate if the decision is to go for it or punt. If we're on our own 20 instead of Arizona's 20, I punt 100 percent of the time and rely on my timeouts and defense. Going for it like we did last night is a freeroll and we passed it up. Inexcusable.

SoCalPat
10-20-2013, 01:03 PM
I think you are right. Schultz kept the ball on 3rd and it even lost yardage, I think. Had he handed off, the back had a clear lane for the 1st down. 4th and 1 or 2 and we would have gone for it. Denham was out; Hatfield was in; our receivning corps was in disarray at that point, with a backup qb.

So the best course of action, given our QB and WR situation, is to make them put together two scoring drives instead of one? That makes zero sense.

sancho
10-20-2013, 01:10 PM
So the best course of action, given our QB and WR situation, is to make them put together two scoring drives instead of one? That makes zero sense.

But two FG drives can sometimes be easier than 1 TD drive.

I do agree with Pat on this, but we are talking about a 4% chance of winning vs a 3% chance. It was very unlikely that we were getting the points we needed either way.

SoCalPat
10-20-2013, 02:59 PM
I like this site:

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/winprobcalc1.php

Summary of our options from last night (Disclaimer: This calculator is based on the NFL model, so it's probably not 100 percent accurate, but given the time remaining in the game and the tradeoff between the 2-minute warning/extra time out and first downs/clock stopping, I think the difference is negligible. I'm pretty sure (but cannot guarantee) my data entry is accurate with what happened and the options that presented us.):

As the third down play concluded, giving us fourth down, our chances of winning were 21 percent.

Had the FG been good, our chances of winning were 24 percent (assuming 3:40 left, 1-10 Arizona on its own 25 after the kickoff). A successful FG does little to improve our chances of winning.

Once the FG missed, our chances of winning dropped to 11 percent (3:40 left, 1-10 Arizona on its own 27). This is not a great number, but it's not death, either.

Had we gone for it and gotten the first down, our chances of winning skyrocket to 52 percent. (3:40 left, 1-10 Utah at the Arizona 19).

Even with a failed fourth-down conversion, our chances of winning are only 20 percent. Again, there is very little difference between this and a successful FG.

A successful FG changes very little. A successful 4th down conversation changes a lot.

UTEopia
10-20-2013, 04:21 PM
Interesting site and stats. The other decision might be the better decision but I don't think it is so obvious as to call it "brain dead"

SoCalPat
10-20-2013, 05:03 PM
Interesting site and stats. The other decision might be the better decision but I don't think it is so obvious as to call it "brain dead"

Kyle gets paid $2 million a year to know this stuff. Certainly not to calculate these figures to 5 decimal points at the blink of an eye, but for all the money poured into football, I expect coaches to have a better clue than the one we exhibited last night. These figures go past the obvious and into the realm of stone-cold fact, that's how lopsided of a difference it is.

sancho
10-20-2013, 05:26 PM
I like this site:

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/winprobcalc1.php

Summary of our options from last night (Disclaimer: This calculator is based on the NFL model, so it's probably not 100 percent accurate, but given the time remaining in the game and the tradeoff between the 2-minute warning/extra time out and first downs/clock stopping, I think the difference is negligible. I'm pretty sure (but cannot guarantee) my data entry is accurate with what happened and the options that presented us.):

As the third down play concluded, giving us fourth down, our chances of winning were 21 percent.

Had the FG been good, our chances of winning were 24 percent (assuming 3:40 left, 1-10 Arizona on its own 25 after the kickoff). A successful FG does little to improve our chances of winning.

Once the FG missed, our chances of winning dropped to 11 percent (3:40 left, 1-10 Arizona on its own 27). This is not a great number, but it's not death, either.

Had we gone for it and gotten the first down, our chances of winning skyrocket to 52 percent. (3:40 left, 1-10 Utah at the Arizona 19).

Even with a failed fourth-down conversion, our chances of winning are only 20 percent. Again, there is very little difference between this and a successful FG.

A successful FG changes very little. A successful 4th down conversation changes a lot.

Looking at the site, I don't see the box where you tell the computer that we were using an inexperienced backup QB who had not had success for a few drives. I also don't see where you input that we had just been stuffed on 3rd on 4.

Again, I agree with Pat, but these stat/probability sites should not be taken as gospel.

LA Ute
10-20-2013, 05:42 PM
Looking at the site, I don't see the box where you tell the computer that we were using an inexperienced backup QB who had not had success for a few drives. I also don't see where you input that we had just been stuffed on 3rd on 4.

Again, I agree with Pat, but these stat/probability sites should not be taken as gospel.

Maybe it's kind of like what doctors tell me about practicing medicine (hostile, are you there ?) -- you take into account the data and in the end you have to exercise judgment. Is coaching, like medicine, both art and science? Probably. Even so, I don't know if Kyle made the absolute right decision or not.

U-Ute
10-20-2013, 07:39 PM
Frankly, I find this discussion quite amusing. The idea of using a statistical model to make your decision is ludicrous at best, and a form of coaching suicide at worst.

The game is about matchups. At that point in the game, the coaching staff knew who was holding their own against their Wildcat counterpart, and who was getting worked. The whole decision at that point hinges on where he felt we had an advantage, and where we were weak.

My guess is that he knew we were struggling offensively and wanted to take the points hoping the D could turn the ball over and get another FG attempt.

hostile
10-20-2013, 10:25 PM
Maybe it's kind of like what doctors tell me about practicing medicine (hostile, are you there ?) -- you take into account the data and in the end you have to exercise judgment. Is coaching, like medicine, both art and science? Probably. Even so, I don't know if Kyle made the absolute right decision or not.

We try to rely on data and make decisions based on predictable outcomes. That being said, in many ways we are like horses: we remember the last thing and the worst thing that happened and probably adjust accordingly, hopefully for the better.

SoCalPat
10-21-2013, 10:35 AM
Frankly, I find this discussion quite amusing. The idea of using a statistical model to make your decision is ludicrous at best, and a form of coaching suicide at worst.

The game is about matchups. At that point in the game, the coaching staff knew who was holding their own against their Wildcat counterpart, and who was getting worked. The whole decision at that point hinges on where he felt we had an advantage, and where we were weak.

My guess is that he knew we were struggling offensively and wanted to take the points hoping the D could turn the ball over and get another FG attempt.

Except it's done all the time in baseball, becoming more prevalent in basketball and hockey, and it's certainly done all the time in contract negotiations by general managers. Even the decision on whether or not to go for two points is made almost entirely using a statistical model (although other non-statistical adages get in the way, like don't chase points, don't go for 2 too early, etc.).

Coaches that make better percentage plays than their counterparts will win more games over time. The catch here obviously is some games are more important/memorable than others, which can convince us that bad decisions are actually good decisions simply because "they worked." As far as my teams are concerned, I will take the bad decision and the good result over the opposite any day of the week. But when I get bad decision/bad outcome, I vent.

The "matchup" theory in the late stages of games becomes far less important than it is in the first quarter because it ignores basic game theory principles and compromises your chances of winning the game. Example: Your team is an excellent running team. Yet you're down 3 points with 20 seconds to go. You have the ball on your opponent's 5 yard-line, first-and-goal to go and you have no timeouts. Who on God's green earth calls a designed run here?

Finally, I'm not trying to be a dick here. I work with numbers every day and I work with/for people who make horrible decisions with those numbers every day. It's a fascinating concept for me. And I understand it much better than the Xs and Os part of football. So I'll talk about it all day long.

sancho
10-21-2013, 11:13 AM
Coaches that make better percentage plays than their counterparts will win more games over time.

This is certainly true. The problem is in overstating the relevance of aggregate averages to particular teams in particular situations. I certainly want to know the average odds of converting a 2-pt conversion, but I shouldn't make the mistake of thinking that my team is close to average. We could be the outlier, living 3 standard deviations ahead of the mean on 2 point conversions.

Coaches need to make high percentage decisions, but those decisions must be dictated by personnel, situation, momentum, and gut as well as by stat sheets.

Applejack
10-21-2013, 11:44 AM
I agree that is was an odd decision by Kyle. It was worsened by Schultz' "slide" which cost us three yards. It should have been a 4th and 1, which I think is an easy call - 4th and 4 with our offense at that time is a more difficult decision.

USS Utah
10-21-2013, 12:46 PM
Frankly, I find this discussion quite amusing. The idea of using a statistical model to make your decision is ludicrous at best, and a form of coaching suicide at worst.

The game is about matchups. At that point in the game, the coaching staff knew who was holding their own against their Wildcat counterpart, and who was getting worked. The whole decision at that point hinges on where he felt we had an advantage, and where we were weak.

My guess is that he knew we were struggling offensively and wanted to take the points hoping the D could turn the ball over and get another FG attempt.

It seems strange to say, but Utah clearly matched up better against Stanford than against Arizona. Stanford is very good at what they do, but they aren't spreading you out and beating you with athleticism (except, perhaps, for Montgomery).

Arizona hasn't been good this year at what they do, but they might have the best running back in the conference, they are athletic and employ a spread offense.

I think its also fair to say that beating Stanford put a target on Utah's back. The Utes can no longer be taken lightly or overlooked.

SoCalPat
10-21-2013, 01:27 PM
This is certainly true. The problem is in overstating the relevance of aggregate averages to particular teams in particular situations. I certainly want to know the average odds of converting a 2-pt conversion, but I shouldn't make the mistake of thinking that my team is close to average. We could be the outlier, living 3 standard deviations ahead of the mean on 2 point conversions.

Coaches need to make high percentage decisions, but those decisions must be dictated by personnel, situation, momentum, and gut as well as by stat sheets.

Oh, I certainly agree. I think where we're all disagreeing or skeptical on the decision to go for it has to do with the time remaining in the game (4 yards vs. 1 yard is a much more secondary issue here). If there's under a minute, it's a no-brainer decision to go for it, personnel, momentum and gut instinct be damned. I can see where people think 3:49 left is enough time, but that's a reasonable disagreement.

U-Ute
10-21-2013, 05:49 PM
It seems strange to say, but Utah clearly matched up better against Stanford than against Arizona. Stanford is very good at what they do, but they aren't spreading you out and beating you with athleticism (except, perhaps, for Montgomery).

Arizona hasn't been good this year at what they do, but they might have the best running back in the conference, they are athletic and employ a spread offense.

I think its also fair to say that beating Stanford put a target on Utah's back. The Utes can no longer be taken lightly or overlooked.

I agree with this completely.

Going into the Stanford game, I felt like we had a decent shot against Stanford but was worried about the game against ASU. Stanford plays more like us, which made the game more of a "strength on strength" type of situation.

The Arizona game was interesting in that it was the first time our D has made an opposing QB better rather than worse relative to his average play (Mannion has been amazing all season). I think playing on the road on Teddy Bruschi day had a lot to do with it. :(