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View Full Version : Total and Adjusted QBR



cald22well
10-16-2013, 01:19 PM
Though not an official stat, QBR is a good way to measure the total impact a QB had on a game. This thread can be used to talk about the way it is calculated, whether or not people agree that it is a good metric, and also the QBR stats of current players.

cald22well
10-16-2013, 01:20 PM
Overall, I think that it is a very good measure for QBs when looking at the Adjusted QBR. Today I was surprised to see Travis Wilson's Adj. QBR at 82.4, so I decided to compare it to the rest of the Pac-12.

The top 3 QBs in the Pac-12 are
Mariota-97
Mannion-82.7
Wilson-82.4

I thought that for sure Price, Hundley, and probably Hogan would be higher.

Looking at the national stage, Wilson ranks 14th among all QBs in Adj QBR, ranking higher than top QBs such as Tajh Boyd, A.J. McCarron, and James Franklin.

What really helps Wilson's rating is his Run EPA (Expected Points Added)-he ranks 6th in the nation with 16.5. Obviously the Oregon State game heavily influences that, but it is very important to note his running ability-especially when being considered with the running Qbs in the Pac-12. To compare, Mariota comes in with 20.9, Hundley at 10.1, and Denker at 9.

To compare to a historical level, I was able to look back at our very own Alex Smith. Smith's season in 2004 ranks 17th all time according to Adj QBR. His rating that year? 84.6. Barely 2 points ahead of where Wilson is now. Also worthy of noting, Smith's Run EPA that year was 15.9-in the spread option offense.

Obviously, 6 games is a fairly small sample size that allows games like Weber to influence the overall rating. But even Wilson's worst game (UCLA) his Adj QBR was still above average at 53.3. How much higher could Wilson's QBR be if the receivers made the play on some of those picks?

One thing I personally do when comparing QBs is to think of how they would do with different teams. How successful could Wilson be in the Oregon offense? Not as good as Mariota, but he may have a QBR in the 90s. How many other QBs would fare as well in Utah's system with the players around them?

Again, I know that it's a small samples size and I hope that Wilson can keep it up through the whole season. But in my opinion, it is clear what we have-an upper echelon Pac-12 QB and a top 20 QB in the nation. And to think, he's only a true sophomore.