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View Full Version : 2013-14 Tank Watch: How to Fail Gracefully in the NBA



UBlender
11-05-2013, 02:00 PM
I thought I'd start a thread primarily to track the Jazz and other NBA teams as they compete for the worst record and top draft pick in this year's (supposedly) loaded NBA draft. Riggin4Wiggins, NoHandle4Randle, Parkin4Jabari, etc.

(If people want to use this thread as the official 2013-14 Jazz or NBA thread, that is fine with me, but I could see those working better in a separate thread as I expect to use this to focus less on the current state of the Jazz and more on how the Jazz can become great by first being terrible).

So far it's a nice 0-3 start for the Jazz, but it has gone about as well as one could hope (if you are into tanking). The Jazz have competed well and the young core has shown some promise, while being unable to close out wins. The come-from-ahead loss to Houston was particularly clutch by this young group.

The very early going has also been successful in the failure of some key tankers to properly fail. Philly, Phoenix and Orlando are considered likely contenders for the top pick but all have won early and shown positive signs (perhaps too many wins will be on the way for these teams).

Despite Danny Ainge (Zoob) swearing Boston wouldn't tank, it appears that the Celtics are the way-too-early frontrunners for that top pick along with the Jazz. The two play tomorrow night in Boston, which will be a key early season game for each team to try and lose. If the Jazz make it through Boston without a win then 0-8 seems like a good possibility, 10% of the way to a perfect season!

Feel the excitement and stay tuned!

DrumNFeather
11-05-2013, 04:07 PM
The Wizards made a move to try and make the playoffs and they still suck. Unintentional tanking is always the way to go.

Sent from my LG-E970 using Tapatalk 2

Applejack
11-06-2013, 07:58 AM
Boston will be tough to catch. Trotting a lineup that features Jeff Green as your centerpiece is impressive.

I think the Suns will be decent - Horny is a good coach (sure glad that we nabbed Corbin instead) and they run and gun with a young team. They'll keep winning, I think. Philly will come back to earth as soon as MCW starts shooting under 50%. Good thing the Jazz bench is MWC quality.

concerned
11-06-2013, 08:01 AM
I don't see why tanking gracefully is a consummation devoutly to be wished. Graceful or not, I just hope it is damn effective.

UBlender
11-06-2013, 12:45 PM
The Wizards made a move to try and make the playoffs and they still suck. Unintentional tanking is always the way to go.

Sent from my LG-E970 using Tapatalk 2

There will certainly be some teams who intended to play for wins this season but they will end up being much worse than expected and at some point will go for the tank. Washington is looking like a strong candidate for that scenario, as are Milwaukee and Denver as they struggle in the early going.

UBlender
11-06-2013, 12:48 PM
Boston will be tough to catch. Trotting a lineup that features Jeff Green as your centerpiece is impressive.

I think the Suns will be decent - Horny is a good coach (sure glad that we nabbed Corbin instead) and they run and gun with a young team. They'll keep winning, I think. Philly will come back to earth as soon as MCW starts shooting under 50%. Good thing the Jazz bench is MWC quality.

Critical early season tank-off between Boston and the Jazz tonight. It is a marathon and not a sprint so the one game may not make a huge difference (and I don't think there are any tiebreakers....they do the lottery and then settle any remaining ties with a coin flip--I think) but it will be very telling just how committed these two teams are to losing this game.

Statement game for the tanking crowd tonight.

concerned
11-06-2013, 01:03 PM
Critical early season tank-off between Boston and the Jazz tonight. It is a marathon and not a sprint so the one game may not make a huge difference (and I don't think there are any tiebreakers....they do the lottery and then settle any remaining ties with a coin flip--I think) but it will be very telling just how committed these two teams are to losing this game.

Statement game for the tanking crowd tonight.

Every game counts the same. the games you tank in early November are just as important as the games you tank in late March. You can never get them back. Hopefully Hayward proves Dennis Lindsey right, and doesnt screw it up by trying to impress the Celtics and his once and future coach.

NinerUte
11-06-2013, 01:14 PM
First to 50 wins tonight?

Applejack
11-06-2013, 01:27 PM
Some other darkhouse candidates:

Cleveland
Sacramento
KNICKS

UBlender
11-06-2013, 01:39 PM
Every game counts the same. the games you tank in early November are just as important as the games you tank in late March. You can never get them back. Hopefully Hayward proves Dennis Lindsey right, and doesnt screw it up by trying to impress the Celtics and his once and future coach.

That is why it is a statement game. It only counts as one and both teams will stumble into wins during the year, but it will be fascinating to see just how bad each team wants to go to tank this early in the season. Will Boston start Brandon Bass at point guard? Will Corbin insert himself into the lineup if Hayward or Burks get hot? I'm not ruling it out.

Boston swore up and down that they wouldn't tank. It looks like that was a lie, but tonight they can really confirm where their motives lie.

concerned
11-06-2013, 01:42 PM
That is why it is a statement game. It only counts as one and both teams will stumble into wins during the year, but it will be fascinating to see just how bad each team wants to go to tank this early in the season. Will Boston start Brandon Bass at point guard? Will Corbin insert himself into the lineup if Hayward or Burks get hot? I'm not ruling it out.

Boston swore up and down that they wouldn't tank. It looks like that was a lie, but tonight they can really confirm where their motives lie.


unfortunately for us, only one of these teams has a coach motivated to win to save his job.

UBlender
11-06-2013, 01:42 PM
Some other darkhouse candidates:

Cleveland
Sacramento
KNICKS

I agree on Cleveland and thought about mentioning them before. I'm not sure Sacramento is a darkhorse--I think they are in the club with the core group of tankers, at least on the fringe. (They should be tanking because they aren't making the playoffs and have no reason to try to win and having a high lottery pick might help generate excitement for them to get an arena deal).

I think the Knicks are too proud to tank and feel like they can be a fringe contender (they can't but they are deluded). However, with Chandler out, if Carmelo were to get hurt then that would change everything. With a healthy Carmelo I can't see them getting bad enough to be in the conversation.

concerned
11-06-2013, 01:45 PM
I agree on Cleveland and thought about mentioning them before. I'm not sure Sacramento is a darkhorse--I think they are in the club with the core group of tankers, at least on the fringe. (They should be tanking because they aren't making the playoffs and have no reason to try to win and having a high lottery pick might help generate excitement for them to get an arena deal).

I think the Knicks are too proud to tank and feel like they can be a fringe contender (they can't but they are deluded). However, with Chandler out, if Carmelo were to get hurt then that would change everything. With a healthy Carmelo I can't see them getting bad enough to be in the conversation.

If the Kings start playing Jimmer, we will know the answer.

concerned
11-06-2013, 03:28 PM
They might give him playing time to "showcase" him for a trade.

a classic example of killing two birds with one stone.

concerned
11-10-2013, 08:29 PM
That is why it is a statement game. It only counts as one and both teams will stumble into wins during the year, but it will be fascinating to see just how bad each team wants to go to tank this early in the season. Will Boston start Brandon Bass at point guard? Will Corbin insert himself into the lineup if Hayward or Burks get hot? I'm not ruling it out.

Boston swore up and down that they wouldn't tank. It looks like that was a lie, but tonight they can really confirm where their motives lie.

We lost our statement game convincingly. Botson has gone on to beat Miami on the road, and Phoenix is 5-2. Looking better and better. We control our destiny.

UBlender
11-12-2013, 08:35 AM
For a minute there, I thought the Jazz might get their first win over the disappointing Nuggets, who may be a darkhorse tanking candidate themselves.

0-8, about 10% of the way to a winless season. Good job, Utah....now maybe go out and get a win at some point just to give everyone a taste of success and a reminder of what we hope to be true: that this team has some pieces of a good team.

concerned
11-12-2013, 02:14 PM
Good to see that the Jazz are taking this tanking seriously:





https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/378800000667494220/72c89269d7c95754865a35863f3715ba_normal.pngJody Genessy ‏@DJJazzyJody (https://twitter.com/DJJazzyJody)4h (https://twitter.com/DJJazzyJody/status/400307797138489344)
Four from Jazz front office will be at tonight's Championship Classic, featuring Wiggins, Randle, Parker, five other projected lottery picks




We are not messing around.

concerned
11-20-2013, 07:59 AM
great tank night last night. The Wizards, Pistons and Kings all won. We are now down two in the win column to the Kings. We need the Bucks to catch fire, however.

Applejack
11-20-2013, 01:14 PM
great tank night last night. The Wizards, Pistons and Kings all won. We are now down two in the win column to the Kings. We need the Bucks to catch fire, however.

The Bucks worry me. They were bad to begin with, and now they are down LARRYSANDERS! and Ilyasova. They can pull a "Jazz" and claim they are running the young guys (Jon Henson, Udoh) to see what they have (not much). Plus, they have chuckers like Mayo and Gary Neal that can carry a tanking team for games at a time. I think the Jazz are in it to win it, but we need to watch our backs.

UBlender
11-20-2013, 03:25 PM
The Bucks worry me. They were bad to begin with, and now they are down LARRYSANDERS! and Ilyasova. They can pull a "Jazz" and claim they are running the young guys (Jon Henson, Udoh) to see what they have (not much). Plus, they have chuckers like Mayo and Gary Neal that can carry a tanking team for games at a time. I think the Jazz are in it to win it, but we need to watch our backs.

The thing about the Bucks is that their owner has been adamant that they will not tank. Now, nobody really openly admits to tanking but there are some organizations, like the Jazz, who don't directly deny it (the Jazz talk about things like investing in the future and having a year of discovery, which is about as close to a confession as you'll get).

Of course, it's possible that the Bucks aren't tanking but just suck that bad. But I'm not yet convinced they are going to be in the thick of the race to the bottom for the full season.

Senioritis
11-20-2013, 03:29 PM
Word that Trey Burke will play tonight in New Orleans. While I don't think Trey Burke is the next, uh, Kirk Heinrich, he will probably be an upgrade over John Lucas III and Alec Burks. The question is, how much?

Hopefully he'll make the Jazz remarkably competitive in oodles of close games that they lose in the final two minutes because they don't have a real first option nor any clue what to do with one even if they did.

I love the NBA.

Scratch
11-20-2013, 03:45 PM
Word that Trey Burke will play tonight in New Orleans. While I don't think Trey Burke is the next, uh, Kirk Heinrich, he will probably be an upgrade over John Lucas III and Alec Burks. The question is, how much?

Hopefully he'll make the Jazz remarkably competitive in oodles of close games that they lose in the final two minutes because they don't have a real first option nor any clue what to do with one even if they did.

I love the NBA.

I can only hope that the Jazz are rushing him back in a manner that will likely lead to some sort of season-threatening bot non-career-impacting injury. I can't come up with any other explanation.

Applejack
11-20-2013, 04:03 PM
Word that Trey Burke will play tonight in New Orleans. While I don't think Trey Burke is the next, uh, Kirk Heinrich, he will probably be an upgrade over John Lucas III and Alec Burks. The question is, how much?

Hopefully he'll make the Jazz remarkably competitive in oodles of close games that they lose in the final two minutes because they don't have a real first option nor any clue what to do with one even if they did.

I love the NBA.

I'm not convinced that the John Lucas III experiment has run its course. He has shown glimpses, right? Let's not take the ball out of his hands too soon.

concerned
11-20-2013, 04:05 PM
[QUOTE=Scratch;26182]I can only hope that the Jazz are rushing him back in a manner that will likely lead to some sort of season-threatening bot non-career-impacting injury. I can't come up with any other explanation.[/


He needs to break another finger. I know just the guy. We also need to make sure the Jazz keep Ty around.

Senioritis
11-20-2013, 04:06 PM
I'm not convinced that the John Lucas III experiment has run its course. He has shown glimpses, right? Let's not take the ball out of his hands too soon.

I can't believe they gave Tinsley the quick hook. Unreal. The organization needs to learn a little patience.

And I don't think Mike Harris gets enough looks from 3. Got to find a way to get him more shots.

wally
11-20-2013, 04:16 PM
I have not been paying attention to the Jazz very much yet. I am hearing that they are in full tanking mode. I find it sort of funny to hear the guys on the Jazz station (1280 right?). just giddy about losing so many games so far. I am guessing by the time the season is over the average listener will have heard the names Wiggins and Parker 10's of thousands of times or more.

Applejack
11-20-2013, 04:21 PM
I can't believe they gave Tinsley the quick hook. Unreal. The organization needs to learn a little patience.

And I don't think Mike Harris gets enough looks from 3. Got to find a way to get him more shots.

Agreed. Tinsley strikes me as a Kurt Warner type - late bloomer. I thought this was his breakout year. I guess we'll never know.

concerned
11-20-2013, 07:01 PM
the Nets GM is brilliant. Who would have thought he acquired KG, Pierce, and AK47 as a tanking strategy. He fooled everyone. Brilliant. Jason Kidd too.

UBlender
12-03-2013, 10:29 AM
Suddenly, the Jazz prospects for a top three pick seem very tenuous. Is it randomness or are the Jazz just too competent with Trey Burke in the lineup? The Jazz still have the most losses but are behind the Bucks and Knicks in the fewest wins competition and are tied with Sacto in wins. Brooklyn and Cleveland lurk right there as well. Toronto has two more wins than the Jazz but lead their division (by percentage points over Boston--the NBA might have a really hilarious and awkward situation on its hands with the winner of that division being handed a #4 seed with a sub .500 record). Philly and Orlando are both looking more like the teams they were expected, though both appear to have some level of competency and are competing to win right now. A lot of company for the Jazz, who seemed poised to boat race the tankers a couple weeks ago.

I still maintain that the Knicks and Nets are too veteran-heavy and proud to really tank. If both teams get healthy they will put together some wins. I think there's too much talent on each roster to stay this bad unless the injuries continue to pile up.

Milwaukee is a huge problem for the Jazz. That is a bad roster and it is now evident that their front office was full of crap when they declared that they would not tank--that team is not trying to win. Cleveland and Sacramento are also big contenders. Cleveland was supposed to contend for the playoffs, but now that they are off to a bad start they will be wise to go all out for the high pick. Sacramento seems like they should be better than this on paper, but they are Sacramento after all.

The Jazz need to right the ship and get back to losing. This is their year to make a move. If they stumble into a pick in the 8-12 range then they may as well get comfortable in that spot because that is where they will remain for years. Once the current core of young players is all vetted up they may be good enough to make the playoffs as a 7 or 8 seed but won't go anywhere and won't have the picks or resources to really improve from there. They need to add a franchise changing player this year.

concerned
12-03-2013, 10:35 AM
Suddenly, the Jazz prospects for a top three pick seem very tenuous. Is it randomness or are the Jazz just too competent with Trey Burke in the lineup? The Jazz still have the most losses but are behind the Bucks and Knicks in the fewest wins competition and are tied with Sacto in wins. Brooklyn and Cleveland lurk right there as well. Toronto has two more wins than the Jazz but lead their division (by percentage points over Boston--the NBA might have a really hilarious and awkward situation on its hands with the winner of that division being handed a #4 seed with a sub .500 record). Philly and Orlando are both looking more like the teams they were expected, though both appear to have some level of competency and are competing to win right now. A lot of company for the Jazz, who seemed poised to boat race the tankers a couple weeks ago.


I still maintain that the Knicks and Nets are too veteran-heavy and proud to really tank. If both teams get healthy they will put together some wins. I think there's too much talent on each roster to stay this bad unless the injuries continue to pile up.

Milwaukee is a huge problem for the Jazz. That is a bad roster and it is now evident that their front office was full of crap when they declared that they would not tank--that team is not trying to win. Cleveland and Sacramento are also big contenders. Cleveland was supposed to contend for the playoffs, but now that they are off to a bad start they will be wise to go all out for the high pick. Sacramento seems like they should be better than this on paper, but they are Sacramento after all.

The Jazz need to right the ship and get back to losing. This is their year to make a move. If they stumble into a pick in the 8-12 range then they may as well get comfortable in that spot because that is where they will remain for years. Once the current core of young players is all vetted up they may be good enough to make the playoffs as a 7 or 8 seed but won't go anywhere and won't have the picks or resources to really improve from there. They need to add a franchise changing player this year.

I went to the game last night; Burke makes all the difference in the world. Hayward, Alec Burks, and Favors all had terrific games. So long Jabari. Very short sighted management decison by the Jazz. They should have been playing Lucas and Tinsley all along.

UBlender
12-03-2013, 10:58 AM
Yeah, it is good to see Burke play well and show that the team isn't a complete train wreck, but it is time to reign things back in and make sure you stick with your savvy veteran in Lucas. Bringing Tinsley back is not a bad idea. You don't want to put too much on Burke too soon, you know.

In seriousness, I'm looking at the Jazz' upcoming schedule and maybe they can get their tanking mojo back. They have two games with Sacramento, which they should make sure they do no better than split (although pulling out a loss in both would be big). Aside from those they have a reasonable shot at not winning again until Christmas. Here is the rest of the month: IND, @POR, SAC, POR, @SAC, @DEN, SA, @MIA, @ORL, @ATL, @CHA, @MEM, LAL, @LAC, CHA. The SAC games will be tough and they could win a road game against Orlando or Charlotte if they are not careful. Aside from those, there best chances will be at home against the Lakers and Charlotte after Christmas. This is a good chance to pile up some more Ls, hopefully they don't screw it up.

UBlender
12-09-2013, 10:16 AM
Clutch loss by the Jazz on Saturday, really big to pull that one off and now the schedule is difficult enough that the possibility of sustaining in losing streak until Christmas is alive and well.

In other news, Sacramento trades for Rudy Gay. I don't know that it makes them a lot better but probably does signal that they are not trying to tank. Toronto is looking to tear things down and may be in the thick of the tanking race (although they are currently in the thick of their divisional race--in that division the margin between the two is very thin).

Applejack
12-09-2013, 05:41 PM
The Jazz have a huge advantage being in the Western Conference this year. All the dregs of the East (too many to list) will be able to beat up on each other, i.e. win some that they don't want to. Whereas the only other truly tank-job in the West is Sactown, so we can basically get killed by every Western team 4 times!

UBlender
12-13-2013, 01:10 PM
Well the Jazz ruined what could have been and 0-fer until Christmas by beating Sacramento. Generally, playing Richard Jefferson big minutes is a sound tanking strategy but it can also backfire on the occasional night when he (and everyone else) shoots lights out. Tough break.

Solid tanking ploy by Sacramento, trading for Rudy Gay and still being unable to figure out how to get him on the court four days later (darn the luck with that).

In other news, Brooklyn looks like an entirely different team with Deron Williams back. They will be competent and still should win that absolutely terrible division. I also realized that New York doesn't have their first round pick this year so no tanking for the Knicks.

Utah, Milwaukee, Sacramento, Toronto, Philly....those appear to be your main tankers right now. A few other teams could still get into the mix depending on how things go. Utah and Sacramento have a huge built-in advantage playing in the dominant conference--those eastern teams will pick up unwanted victories over each other that will hurt their tanking efforts.

hostile
12-13-2013, 09:31 PM
Now 2-0 on what was a potential 0-6 run up to Christmas.

Applejack
12-14-2013, 08:34 AM
Now 2-0 on what was a potential 0-6 run up to Christmas.

Terrible, terrible two-game skid. At this point, I don't think anyone is catching the Bucks. They have almost no talent and play with little desire - a well-constructed tank job all around. We are essentially fighting for second place at this point.

New York and Brooklyn are, fortunately, trying to win this year. They will eke out enough victories in the East that we won't have to worry about them. Orlando, Philly, Cleveland, and Toronto are the only real challengers in the East for that second spot.

Sacramento is a real wild card - terrible organization, a TON of chuckers that don't play defense, some bad attitudes, potential for total implosion; BUT, a legitimate all-star in the post, some talented athletes at most positions. This is a team that could challenge Milwaukee if things go their way, or if Rudy Gay starts hitting, DeMarcus Cousins doesn't get suspended, and Isaiah Thomas keeps playing well, they could be mid-lottery.

UBlender
01-07-2014, 10:52 AM
It looks like the Bulls have officially thrown in the towel and will be tanking hard from here on out with the Deng-Bynum trade. (Missed opportunity for the Jazz to get worse by unloading the entirely-too-competent-for-this-season Richard Jefferson). On the other hand, Deng clearly improves Cleveland who isn't intentionally tanking but still finds themselves close to the bottom of the league, so I guess you trade Chicago for Cleveland in the tank race.

In other news, both Toronto and Sacramento appear to be improved since the Rudy Gay trade, although Sacramento is still in the thick of things and will likely battle the Jazz for worst record in the west all season.

Boston is sliding back into the conversation after looking like non-tankers for a while. Philly and Orlando are looking very serious lately; they appear very committed to make a run at Milwaukee. New York doesn't own their pick but they can't seem to get out of their own way. Brooklyn has been better but with Deron Williams out again they could slide back (another team without its own pick and no incentive to tank).

I swear the Jazz are going to end up with the #9 and #24 picks in this draft and get only slightly better while a bunch of teams get future stars. They just don't seem to have enough dedication to the cause since Burke came back. They need to find a new way to lose a lot more games pronto.

NinerUte
01-09-2014, 10:11 AM
Looking worse and worse for one of the top few picks, but the lottery is the lottery, and they could still end up in good shape. The Jazz need to ship Jefferson, he is not doing us any long term favors.

concerned
03-03-2014, 08:30 PM
If only the Jazz could show some consistency, and play every night against all the tanking contenders like they did tonight against Milwaukee. But they are a young team; they have to develop team chemistry to put it together every night like they did tonight. But what a start, against the number 1 seed.

Senioritis
05-20-2014, 03:50 PM
Today is the day! After a super duper exciting season where everybody stopped caring in, uh, about December, the Jazz finally learn their draft fate tonight.

I think there are two possibly very good outcomes tonight. First, the Jazz pick fourth or better and get somebody really good. Or second, the Jazz get leapfrogged by the Celtics and Lakers, pick a shmarmy Euro at 7, the fanbase goes into absolute meltdown over the rigged draft, the Jazz hire Jim Boylen, the Seventh Seal is ripped open by the vortex of misery created, and humanity as we know it ceases to exist.

While option one is preferable, I think it's pretty clear to see the entertainment value of option two. Either way is good.

Scratch
05-20-2014, 03:54 PM
Today is the day! After a super duper exciting season where everybody stopped caring in, uh, about December, the Jazz finally learn their draft fate tonight.

I think there are two possibly very good outcomes tonight. First, the Jazz pick fourth or better and get somebody really good. Or second, the Jazz get leapfrogged by the Celtics and Lakers, pick a shmarmy Euro at 7, the fanbase goes into absolute meltdown over the rigged draft, the Jazz hire Jim Boylen, the Seventh Seal is ripped open by the vortex of misery created, and humanity as we know it ceases to exist.

While option one is preferable, I think it's pretty clear to see the entertainment value of option two. Either way is good.

Fire and brimstone coming down from the sky! Rivers and seas boiling!Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes!The dead rising from the grave! Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!

Senioritis
05-20-2014, 03:56 PM
Fire and brimstone coming down from the sky! Rivers and seas boiling!Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes!The dead rising from the grave! Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!

I have seen $#!+ that would turn you white.

Senioritis
05-20-2014, 03:58 PM
To overcome my anxiousness for tonight and draft night, I decided to skip the rigamarole and play the ESPN Lottery Game just once.

The Jazz will pick 5th. They will draft Noah Vonleh.

That is not option one nor option two. I want my money back.

Scratch
05-20-2014, 04:03 PM
I have seen $#!+ that would turn you white.

Are you, Senioritis, menstruating right now?

Senioritis
05-20-2014, 08:10 PM
To overcome my anxiousness for tonight and draft night, I decided to skip the rigamarole and play the ESPN Lottery Game just once.

The Jazz will pick 5th. They will draft Noah Vonleh.

That is not option one nor option two. I want my money back.

Damn you, ESPN Lottery Game! Damn you to hell!!

concerned
05-20-2014, 09:54 PM
I know, I was loving your two scenarios. I don't see Noah Vonleh in the cards, thought. Aaron Gordon or Julius Randle.

I'm not a huge Jazz fan, but I pull for them. It's inexcusable that they decided to tank and then didn't tank well enough.

Hey it takes a year of experience; very few climb to the top (or bottom) their first time out. Sign Hayward to a max contract, start him Favors and Kanter Burke and Burks, and we will have a top three pick. Next year is our year. We could even have the beginning of a tanking dynasty, though it is hard to achieve Cleveland's heights (or bottoms).

Applejack
05-21-2014, 10:56 AM
Oh man, the nba is so rigged. It's always trying to help out its marquee franchises, like the Cleveland cavaliers.

UBlender
05-21-2014, 01:05 PM
Just looked at a Yahoo mock draft:

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/2014-nba-mock-draft--lottery-edition-021401275.html

Realizing that this really is a deep draft. Sure, there's a clear top 4, but Aaron Gordon, Julius Randle, Marcus Smart, and I guess even Noah Vonleh are no consolation prizes. There's actually a chance one of those guys ends up the best player out of the draft. You can't say that most years.

The second four of Gordon, Randle, Smart and Vonleh all project as good players, but they are on par with what the Jazz already have on the roster in Favors, Hayward, Burks, Burk and Kanter. Sure they help but only marginally and none of them are taking you to more than a first round playoff exit (and that's in a few years when they have all hit their ceiling--best case scenario).

Although, there's probably a likelihood, despite current projections, that one of those second four is a bust, two are solid players and one turns out to be a star (like this year's Paul George). It's the Jazz job to identify the one that is going to be a star. Even with a new regime in charge, I have a sinking feeling they won't get it right.

concerned
05-21-2014, 01:12 PM
If Burke had just missed that game winning shot in Feburary against Orldando, we would have tied with them, and with a coin flip would have had the foruth pick. (I assume there would have been a coin flip even though we would have lost the season series).

concerned
05-21-2014, 01:15 PM
There have been some great no. 5 picks.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865603627/Ranking-the-best-No-5-picks-in-the-history-of-the-NBA-Draft.html?pg=all

UBlender
05-21-2014, 02:51 PM
It's random. Nobody knows who the star will be. If we knew, that star would be among the Parker, Wiggins, Embiid, Exum group.

It seems probable that someone in the Gordon/Randle/Smart trio ends up much better than anyone currently on the Jazz. I don't think you could have said that about the past few drafts.

That's only if there was a consensus on who that star was. Teams feel like they see something different in prospects all the time. That's how you end up with Anthony Bennett going #1 when nobody else thinks he's the best player. A lot of times it goes bad (I mean, usually the "crowd" is more likely to be right than the lone dissenter) but occasionally you get the right guy and end up looking like a genius.

That said, I agree on the probability that one of the next four (I'm including Vonleh) ends up really good and that's where one would have to hope the Jazz are smart enough to figure out which one.