UBlender
11-06-2013, 01:23 PM
Here is a thread to look at Utah's possibilities and probabilities for this season.
Obviously Utah needs to get to six wins to be considered for a bowl game and that could be a challenge given the current trajectory of the team. Still, the PAC 12 looks poised to have more bowl eligible teams than bowl tie-ins so six wins won't guarantee anything.
The PAC 12 has seven official bowl tie-ins:
Rose
Alamo
Holiday
Sun
Vegas
Fight Hunger
New Mexico
The PAC 12 will also very likely get a second team in the BCS, either by virtue of Oregon making the championship game or just by taking one of the four at large BCS berths (possibly the Fiesta Bowl). The PAC 12 seems all but certain to have eight bowl tie-ins this season.
Currently, there are six bowl eligible teams in the PAC (OU, Stan, OSU, UCLA, ASU, UA).
Cal is the only team currently eliminated from bowl eligibility.
Washington and USC are both one win short but are very likely to get that remaining win. UW has CU, @UCLA, @OSU and WSU remaining. USC has @Cal, Stanford, @CU and UCLA remaining. So you can basically assume that, barring catastrophe, UW and USC will give the PAC 12 eight bowl eligible teams.
Utah and WSU both need two wins to get eligible. It is not guaranteed that either will get there. We know Utah's schedule. WSU has a bye this week, then @UA, Utah, @UW. WSU will probably be a small favorite over Utah at home but will be underdogs in their other two games. A likely scenario has Utah visiting Pullman with both teams at 4-6 and needing that game to stay alive for bowl eligibility. It is also very possible that neither team gets to six wins if WSU beats Utah but is unable to pull of a road win @UA or @UW.
CU is still alive at 3-5. They have @UW, Cal, USC and @Utah to close the season. They are unlikely to get to six wins, but if they could somehow pull an upset in Seattle this week they would have a punchers chance with their remaining schedule.
As mentioned, Cal is 1-8 and won't make a bowl game.
Most likely scenario is that OU, Stan, OSU, UCLA, ASU, UA, UW and USC will fill the PAC 12's (likely) eight bowl slots. Utah has the best shot at being a ninth eligible team.
Remember, teams with six wins cannot be selected for bowl games ahead of teams with 7+ wins. Of the eight expected bowl eligible teams, OSU is the only one who may stick at six wins. The Beavers are currently 6-3 but finish with @ASU, UW and @OU. They will be underdogs for both road games and the UW game in Corvallis will be a tough one to call. If Utah and OSU both finish 6-6 then I believe it is simply up to the discretion of the bowl (I don't believe there are any official tie-breakers). In this case it would be the New Mexico bowl and they may well favor Utah based on the fact that OSU would have finished on a five game losing streak, Utah's proximity to New Mexico and perhaps an interest in putting Utah up against an old MWC foe.
If Utah gets six wins but does not get selected for one of the PAC 12's bowl games there is still potential for an at large bid where another conference does not fill its bowl slots. In fact, ESPN has projected Utah to the Heart of Dallas Bowl on January 1st against a Conference USA opponent. The likelihood of Utah filling such a slot and who the other eligible teams in consideration for that position is something to watch, but I don't have the time or energy to try to figure it out right now.
At this point, I'll take any bowl game we can get our hands on.
Obviously Utah needs to get to six wins to be considered for a bowl game and that could be a challenge given the current trajectory of the team. Still, the PAC 12 looks poised to have more bowl eligible teams than bowl tie-ins so six wins won't guarantee anything.
The PAC 12 has seven official bowl tie-ins:
Rose
Alamo
Holiday
Sun
Vegas
Fight Hunger
New Mexico
The PAC 12 will also very likely get a second team in the BCS, either by virtue of Oregon making the championship game or just by taking one of the four at large BCS berths (possibly the Fiesta Bowl). The PAC 12 seems all but certain to have eight bowl tie-ins this season.
Currently, there are six bowl eligible teams in the PAC (OU, Stan, OSU, UCLA, ASU, UA).
Cal is the only team currently eliminated from bowl eligibility.
Washington and USC are both one win short but are very likely to get that remaining win. UW has CU, @UCLA, @OSU and WSU remaining. USC has @Cal, Stanford, @CU and UCLA remaining. So you can basically assume that, barring catastrophe, UW and USC will give the PAC 12 eight bowl eligible teams.
Utah and WSU both need two wins to get eligible. It is not guaranteed that either will get there. We know Utah's schedule. WSU has a bye this week, then @UA, Utah, @UW. WSU will probably be a small favorite over Utah at home but will be underdogs in their other two games. A likely scenario has Utah visiting Pullman with both teams at 4-6 and needing that game to stay alive for bowl eligibility. It is also very possible that neither team gets to six wins if WSU beats Utah but is unable to pull of a road win @UA or @UW.
CU is still alive at 3-5. They have @UW, Cal, USC and @Utah to close the season. They are unlikely to get to six wins, but if they could somehow pull an upset in Seattle this week they would have a punchers chance with their remaining schedule.
As mentioned, Cal is 1-8 and won't make a bowl game.
Most likely scenario is that OU, Stan, OSU, UCLA, ASU, UA, UW and USC will fill the PAC 12's (likely) eight bowl slots. Utah has the best shot at being a ninth eligible team.
Remember, teams with six wins cannot be selected for bowl games ahead of teams with 7+ wins. Of the eight expected bowl eligible teams, OSU is the only one who may stick at six wins. The Beavers are currently 6-3 but finish with @ASU, UW and @OU. They will be underdogs for both road games and the UW game in Corvallis will be a tough one to call. If Utah and OSU both finish 6-6 then I believe it is simply up to the discretion of the bowl (I don't believe there are any official tie-breakers). In this case it would be the New Mexico bowl and they may well favor Utah based on the fact that OSU would have finished on a five game losing streak, Utah's proximity to New Mexico and perhaps an interest in putting Utah up against an old MWC foe.
If Utah gets six wins but does not get selected for one of the PAC 12's bowl games there is still potential for an at large bid where another conference does not fill its bowl slots. In fact, ESPN has projected Utah to the Heart of Dallas Bowl on January 1st against a Conference USA opponent. The likelihood of Utah filling such a slot and who the other eligible teams in consideration for that position is something to watch, but I don't have the time or energy to try to figure it out right now.
At this point, I'll take any bowl game we can get our hands on.