Non-conference SoS

[pachoopsab]

I thought of Utah when piecing together this study about non-conference strength of schedule and post-season success (http://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketball/comments/2mogmr/nonconference_strength_of_schedule_equate_to/).

While the actual numbers don't necessarily suggest that having an above average NCSOS will equate or prep a team for the NCAAs, it most certainly can toughen them up, build their resume, and more. The reason I thought of Utah was that we've talked a lot about their scheduling. Under Larry K their NCSOS ranking were: 206, 304, and 350 (2012, 13, 14 respectively). This year projects to not only be their toughest OOC but also their best team. Lots of factors go into all of this but I love this year's schedule + roster.

And y'all were very right (one game deep) about Poeltl. Excited for this afternoon's game.

[LA Ute]

Interesting stuff, pachoops (http://pachoops.com/2014/11/non-conference-strength-of-schedule-and-the-post-season/). My own uneducated anecdotally-based opinion is that mid-majors benefit from tough pre-season schedules when Tournament time rolls around. Your data suggest that more elite programs don't reap the same rewards.

As for Poeltl, today will tell us something about how ready he is for prime time. In any case I am sure he will get better as the season progresses. The young man has a very high ceiling, IMO.

[pachoopsab]

Scheduling is definitely something that should be approached both qualitatively and quantitatively. Buncha cupcakes can really help. Galvanizing in the fire can do the same. Probably depends a lot on a given roster.

One of the concerns - and correct me if you hadn't heard this - was team athleticism for the Utes. Poeltl changes that. SDSU is athletic up and down it's roster. Really, really looking forward to this matchup.

[U-Ute]

It seems to me that there are two situations where having a strong non-conference SoS helps you:



Mid-majors, which are able to improve their tournament seeding with a strong non-conference schedule giving them a chance to prove themselves.
Young teams are able to forge their young players before conference play in a strong conference.


I am evaluating the SDSU game in that second context.

For example, Kuzma had his "welcome to division 1 basketball kid" when he got his shot blocked in the second half. At 6'9", he figured he was tall enough to get a shot off from the 3-point line over a smaller defender a good 4'-5' away. He misjudged the length and athleticism of the SDSU defender, who is a pretty good example of most of the 2 and 3 players in the PAC-12. He doesn't get that experience playing Ball State, UC Riverside, or North Dakota.

If the Utes are able to come together and finish 2nd or 3rd in the PAC-12, the game against SDSU will have a minimal impact outside of the experience gained by the young guys.

The bottom line is this conference has enough cachet that we will be judged 90% based on how we do in conference play. Even the games against Wichita St, BYU, UNLV, and Kansas won't have a direct impact. It is hard to envision a scenario where we lose all of those games and end up in the top 3 in the league. Conversely, it is difficult to see us winning all of those games and then going into a tailspin in conference (barring injury).

It is a far cry from the MWC where there were were maybe 2 other good teams in any good year, so we had so few opportunities to see how good we really were. You would get glimpses, but the rest was conjecture. In PAC-12 conference play, you will be shown for what you really are.

BTW, I was very impressed with Kuzma, Chapman, IWright, Reyes, and obviously Poeltl. In my mind, they all passed the SDSU test. They need more experience, but Krystko is giving them minutes and they are growing fast. Which is good because we will need them.