Rumble on the Hardwood in the Rockies - Part II

[DrumNFeather]

Well here we are. Last game of the regular season, and the last home game for Seniors Brandon Taylor, Jordan Loveridge, Dakarai Tucker, and 99.9% Soph Jakob Poeltel. The Utes have already assured themselves of a first-round bye in the Pac 12 tournament, and with a little help (Ducks getting swept, Cal losing one) could vault all the way up to the top seed.

More importantly, the Utes seem to be on the cusp of moving up to the 3 line for the NCAA tournament, and must beat the Buffs for that to still be a possibility.

For Colorado, their win over Arizona put them in a favorable position to capture the #5 seed in the conference tourney. Should they beat us, and Arizona loses to either Cal or Stanford...they could move up to the 4 spot. That same scenario would hold if they lost to us and Arizona got swept (unlikely).

One other interesting thing to note for this game - the Utes are off Wed/Thurs and don't play this game until Saturday night, the last game of the season. both Arizona and Oregon's games will be over and Cal's game should end before halftime, so the Utes should know (or at least we will) what exactly they are playing for.

[Utah]

That 3 seed is HUGE. We have the talent to be an elite 8 team or better. If we could get some matchup breaks, that would be unreal.

[sancho]

That 3 seed is HUGE. We have the talent to be an elite 8 team or better. If we could get some matchup breaks, that would be unreal.

Even the 4 seed is huge. I agree that a good run is possible, but a round one exit is also possible based on some of the losses we've had this season. Traditionally, the 5/12 games generate more upsets than any other. It would be great if we could avoid a 12 seed in the first round.

[SoCalPat]

Even the 4 seed is huge. I agree that a good run is possible, but a round one exit is also possible based on some of the losses we've had this season. Traditionally, the 5/12 games generate more upsets than any other. It would be great if we could avoid a 12 seed in the first round.

If you're worried about decreasing odds of losing, a 4 seed looks pretty good. If you're interested in winning it all, a 3 seed looks better. 24 of the last 28 title winners were top 3 seeds. 3 seeds (4) have won it all more often than 2 seeds (3) in that timeframe.

[SoCalPat]

Even the 4 seed is huge. I agree that a good run is possible, but a round one exit is also possible based on some of the losses we've had this season. Traditionally, the 5/12 games generate more upsets than any other. It would be great if we could avoid a 12 seed in the first round.

Name one loss we've had this season that even validates this claim. Our worst loss is Stanford, a team that, if it got hot and won the Pac-12 tourney, would be a 7 or 8 seed. We're not facing a 7 or 8 seed in the first round.

[sancho]

Name one loss we've had this season that even validates this claim. Our worst loss is Stanford, a team that, if it got hot and won the Pac-12 tourney, would be a 7 or 8 seed. We're not facing a 7 or 8 seed in the first round.

I don't agree that Stanford or OSU compare to 7/8 seeds. Those are teams on the outside looking in. I would compare them to 12 seeds.

[SoCalPat]

I don't agree that Stanford or OSU compare to 7/8 seeds. Those are teams on the outside looking in. I would compare them to 12 seeds.

They're on the outside looking in because of the number of auto-bids that go to clearly inferior teams.

The team we get in the first round of the dance -- let's say we're a 4 seed -- would be a sizable underdog to Stanford or OSU at any site. Based on the losses we've had this year, the only definitive claim that can be made about a first-round loss is that it's impossible to happen to Utah.

[sancho]

They're on the outside looking in because of the number of auto-bids that go to clearly inferior teams.

The team we get in the first round of the dance -- let's say we're a 4 seed -- would be a sizable underdog to Stanford or OSU at any site. Based on the losses we've had this year, the only definitive claim that can be made about a first-round loss is that it's impossible to happen to Utah.

Again, I disagree. The teams that get in as 12 seeds this year would not be underdogs to Stanford. There is a reason the 5/12 upset is so common - 12 seeds are often very good teams. Stanford is not a very good team.

[SoCalPat]

Again, I disagree. The teams that get in as 12 seeds this year would not be underdogs to Stanford. There is a reason the 5/12 upset is so common - 12 seeds are often very good teams. Stanford is not a very good team.

You're defending your position by saying we'll be a 5 seed. Again, nothing there that is even remotely close to indicate we will be seeded so low. Our ceiling is much higher than our floor right now.

The opponent Utah would face as a 4 seed or higher would be an inferior team to Stanford. Right now, the projected 13 seeds are Stony Brook, Hawaii, Yale and Akron. There is zero in Utah's resume that it's possible for Utah to lose to one of those teams.

[Scratch]

Our ceiling is much higher than our floor right now.


I certainly hope so.

[sancho]

Our ceiling is much higher than our floor right now.


Agreed. Let's go get it done!

[SoCalPat]

I certainly hope so.

That wasn't phrased well. We have more growth potential (a 2 seed) than we do room to fall. I can't see us falling below our near-universal 4 seed right now. Outside of our opening round game in Vegas, there's really no opportunity for a bad loss. We have far more chances to improve our seeding that we do chances to hurt it.

[311ute]

Basically every national bracket projection has us as a 3 seed: ESPN, CBS, FOX, USA Today, NBC, SI, Yahoo, SportingNews.

As long as we win Saturday we won't get anything worse than a 3 seed, IMO. And certainly nothing worse than a 4. If we win out we'll get a 2 seed, and I even think if we win out until the championship game in Vegas we could get a 2 seed.


Here are the historical first round winning %'s by seed in the NCAA Tournament:

1 seed: 100%
2 seed: 94%
3 seed: 84%
4 seed: 80%
5 seed: 67%
6 seed: 66%
7 seed: 61%

[sancho]

Basically every national bracket projection has us as a 3 seed: ESPN, CBS, FOX, USA Today, NBC, SI, Yahoo, SportingNews.


I believe this, but I'm still a little surprised by it.

Our best win is Duke - a good but not great win. We have home wins vs Arizona and Cal. Our best road win is either @CU or @USC. There's no individual win on the resume that screams out "3 seed". I guess it's just the volume and the lack of bad losses.

[DrumNFeather]

I believe this, but I'm still a little surprised by it.

Our best win is Duke - a good but not great win. We have home wins vs Arizona and Cal. Our best road win is either @CU or @USC. There's no individual win on the resume that screams out "3 seed". I guess it's just the volume and the lack of bad losses.

Maybe we have a big man that the committee wants to see around for the second weekend. :cool:

[LA Ute]

I believe this, but I'm still a little surprised by it.

Our best win is Duke - a good but not great win. We have home wins vs Arizona and Cal. Our best road win is either @CU or @USC. There's no individual win on the resume that screams out "3 seed". I guess it's just the volume and the lack of bad losses.

People are saying that Texas Tech has turned out to be a good win.

This guy, Gary Parrish, has a detailed defense of his #9 ranking of the Ute:

http://espn700sports.com/interviews/gary-parrish-cbs-college-basketball-3-1-16/

And he makes his case here:

Poll Attacks: Would you believe there is still one AP voter not ranking Utah? (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25500279/poll-attacks-would-you-believe-there-is-still-one-ap-voter-not-ranking-utah)

[DrumNFeather]

Larry said today that Jeremy Olsen will also be honored on Senior night - a nice gesture. Also noted that it is likely Jakob's final home game as well.

[311ute]

I believe this, but I'm still a little surprised by it.

Our best win is Duke - a good but not great win. We have home wins vs Arizona and Cal. Our best road win is either @CU or @USC. There's no individual win on the resume that screams out "3 seed". I guess it's just the volume and the lack of bad losses.




Seed
Team
RPI
D1 Overall Record
NCSS
SOS
vs top 25
vs top 50
vs top 100
Losses to sub 100


2
Xavier
6
25-4
108
48
2-1
7-2
16-5
1


2
Mich St
12
24-5
159
64
3-3
7-4
10-4
1


2
UNC
9
24-6
80
44
2-3
3-5
11-6
0


2
Miami
7
23-5
110
24
4-2
8-2
13-2
3


3
Oregon
4
22-6
11
3
4-1
10-3
16-5
1


3
West Virg
14
22-7
132
32
5-4
5-7
9-7
0


3
Utah
8
22-7
17
12
3-4
7-6
16-7
0


3
Maryland
10
22-6
118
41
2-3
4-4
8-5
1


4
Duke
11
21-8
15
7
3-4
5-6
10-7
1


4
Kentucky
15
21-8
12
27
2-2
7-3
11-6
2


4
Iowa St
19
21-9
95
21
4-7
6-8
11-9
0


4
Iowa
21
20-8
126
38
4-3
5-6
7-7
1



If you look at the resumes of the teams we're competing with for seeding, we match up quite favorably. We don't have any bad losses, we have 7 top-50 wins (4 away from home), 16 top-100 wins. Our SOS and NCSOS are very strong as well. As good as our team was last year, our resume this year is light year's better (last year we ended up with 3 top-50 wins and 7 top-100 wins). There's really no weakness in our resume. A 3 is very fair.

[sancho]

If you look at the resumes of the teams we're competing with for seeding, we match up quite favorably. We don't have any bad losses, we have 7 top-50 wins (4 away from home), 16 top-100 wins. Our SOS and NCSOS are very strong as well. As good as our team was last year, our resume this year is light year's better (last year we ended up with 3 top-50 wins and 7 top-100 wins). There's really no weakness in our resume. A 3 is very fair.

Yeah, can't really argue with that. We're lucky they use RPI for these things instead of the better metrics. What is our record vs top 25 if we use kenpom instead of rpi?

[311ute]

Yeah, can't really argue with that. We're lucky they use RPI for these things instead of the better metrics. What is our record vs top 25 if we use kenpom instead of rpi?

Using KenPom our record would be:

vs top 25: 3-5
vs top 50: 5-5
vs top 100: 14-7


*I didn't see this until now, but after SDSU's win at the Pitt last night, they're back in the RPI top-50. So we currently have 8 RPI top-50 wins.

[sancho]

Using KenPom our record would be:

vs top 25: 3-5
vs top 50: 5-5
vs top 100: 14-7


*I didn't see this until now, but after SDSU's win at the Pitt last night, they're back in the RPI top-50. So we currently have 8 RPI top-50 wins.

Well, I'd say our case is bulletproof then.

[DrumNFeather]

Larry said today that Jeremy Olsen will also be honored on Senior night - a nice gesture. Also noted that it is likely Jakob's final home game as well.

Also, Austin Eastman is a Senior as well, so he'll be honored.

[justaute]

Well, it appears our offense/guards is ignoring Jakob again.

[sancho]

So ugly.

[justaute]

Super ugly.


So ugly.

[justaute]

That was just horrible, and more than just shots not falling. Basketball IQ, the little we had, just out the window. Senior night with senior garbage.

[sancho]

That was just horrible, and more than just shots not falling. Basketball IQ, the little we had, just out the window. Senior night with senior garbage.

We're saving it for the second half.

[justaute]

Hope so. Maybe they didn't throw that IQ too far away.


We're saving it for the second half.

[Dwight Schr-Ute]

:blink:

These announcers are cracking me up though. Five minutes into the first half, they take us to commercial break with some comment like, "Up by two, Utes looking to hang on when we come back."

Also, is "late whistle" the most misused phrase in college basketball? I hear it all the time when the whistle has blown well within the average human response deviation.


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[Dwight Schr-Ute]

We're saving it for the second half.

When does that start?


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[sancho]

When does that start?


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We're saving it for the last ten minutes.

[justaute]

Maybe we are saving it for after the post-season?

[justaute]

Want a #3 seed? haha.

[LA Ute]

Let's see if our 10-point run can continue.


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[justaute]

sancho...you were almost correct. It appears we were saving it for the last 6 minutes.


We're saving it for the last ten minutes.

[Dwight Schr-Ute]

We're saving it for the last ten minutes.

:highfive:


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[LA Ute]

Was that a 19-2 run? Not bad.


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[Dwight Schr-Ute]

Was that a 19-2 run? Not bad.


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Like Arizona State but at the end.


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[DrumNFeather]

Conference of champions

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[LA Ute]

Is that the second or third time this season Lorenzo has fouled a 3point shooter?


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[DrumNFeather]

We should really work on not fouling teams in these situations.

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[sancho]

Was that a 19-2 run? Not bad.


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If we can just manage one of those per game, I like our chances in Vegas next week.

[DrumNFeather]

Glad we sent the seniors out with a win.

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[sancho]

Glad we sent the seniors out with a win.

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Ugly, but Taylor and loveridge each played a big role in the comeback.

[Dwight Schr-Ute]

I was prepared to tell myself, "even some of Majerus' best teams had pre-tourney losses like this that refocused the team." But I like mid-game refocus efforts even better. Good job boys.


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[justaute]

Glad we got the W, especially for the seniors. That 19-0 was amazing -- Loveridge's 25-ft banker started it. Let's hope we play smarter and make more shots from here on out.

[DrumNFeather]

Our guys really lose their heads in these clutch situations. Wild swings to try to block shots, leaving their feet, jumping at or into the opposing player...let's work on that, Larry.

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[Old Standing ute]

Losing their heads was the Buffs tonight----crowd went crazy & they went in the tank.

Bonam got too caught up in it---but the team was basically under control.

[Dwight Schr-Ute]

The Buffs.

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160306/dc12c1029378fb00186a25b13eaea368.jpg


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[justaute]

What a win. I cannot remember the last time Utes came back from 14+ down against a meaningful opponent.

[U-Ute]

Every game we have against Colorado is ugly. This one was no different.

Nice to see the Utes finish on a high note.

[Jarid in Cedar]

What a win. I cannot remember the last time Utes came back from 14+ down against a meaningful opponent.

Especially with only 8 minutes left in the game.

[Jarid in Cedar]

Every game we have against Colorado is ugly. This one was no different.

Nice to see the Utes finish on a high note.

Colorado knows how to use their size to disrupt our interior passing game. As much as Poeltl was in Scott's head on the offensive end, Scott made it difficult to feed to Poeltl from the high post. Kuzma overthrew at least 3 attempts due to Scott's long reach.

[justaute]

Candidly, I would not double/triple Poeltl -- maybe double-team him at the most, once in a while. I would pressure the crap out of our guards. I just don't believe our guards/forwards' ability to pass and create shots. Let Poeltl have his points, which would be limited by the passes he can get.


Colorado knows how to use their size to disrupt our interior passing game. As much as Poeltl was in Scott's head on the offensive end, Scott made it difficult to feed to Poeltl from the high post. Kuzma overthrew at least 3 attempts due to Scott's long reach.

[Dwight Schr-Ute]

Candidly, I would not double/triple Poeltl -- maybe double-team him at the most, once in a while. I would pressure the crap out of our guards. I just don't believe our guards/forwards' ability to pass and create shots. Let Poeltl have his points, which would be limited by the passes he can get.

Shhhhhhhhhh!!!! What are you doing?!?!


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[LA Ute]

These are among the weirdest stats I have ever seen from a winning effort.

http://m.utahutes.com/m/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2015-2016/umbb-31.html


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[sancho]

Kuzma overthrew at least 3 attempts due to Scott's long reach.

This is 2-3 bad games in a row for Kuz. I'd like that streak to end.

[U-Ute]

Point guard problems. 😂😂

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160306/309fe0e015ff9a0b7412269c1fee32f2.jpg

[justaute]

He also needs to stop trying to dunk in a crowd, with help defense waiting. He has a decent vertical for a 6'9" guy, but not great.


This is 2-3 bad games in a row for Kuz. I'd like that streak to end.

[Dwight Schr-Ute]

The Ken Pom winning probability tracker for the last two Colorado games.

@Colorado
http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160306/d820861b6c3513a05605fd459e9ca7ea.jpg

@Utah
http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160306/4f9e695e76a0309cfb06be15103457a7.jpg

Last night, when Colorado went up by 14, our winning probability was 5%.


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[LA Ute]

He also needs to stop trying to dunk in a crowd, with help defense waiting. He has a decent vertical for a 6'9" guy, but not great.

Right. He looks stupid when he does it, and it can't be great for the team's morale (not to mention the morale of fans like me).