2016-2017 End of season Projections [Archive] - Utahby5.com. Come for the Sports, Stay for the Community

The Thrill

11-09-2016, 11:39 PM

Here we are at the beginning of a new season.
Many of you know I love my stats.
I've compiled all the preseason computer rankings into my computer and it's spit out an end of season standings

PREDICTED END OF SEASON RECORDS

End of Season
W
L

Road Games
W
L

OOC Record
W
L

Pac12 Conf
W
L

Oregon
27
1
0.964
Oregon
9
1
.900
Arizona
11
1
.917
Arizona
16
2
.889

Arizona
28
2
0.933
Arizona
9
1
.900
UCLA
10
1
.909
Oregon
16
2
.889

UCLA
22
7
0.759
UCLA
5
5
.500
Washington
10
1
.909
UCLA
15
3
.833

Utah
22
8
0.733
Colorado
6
6
.500
Oregon
9
1
.900
Colorado
12
6
.667

Colorado
21
9
0.700
California
4
5
.444
Utah
9
1
.900
California
11
7
.611

California
21
9
0.700
Washington
4
8
.333
Oregon St
11
2
.846
Utah
10
8
.556

Washington
18
11
0.621
Utah
3
7
.300
California
10
2
.833
USC
9
9
.500

USC
17
13
0.567
USC
3
8
.273
USC
10
2
.833
Stanford
8
10
.444

Oregon St
16
15
0.516
Oregon State
3
10
.231
Washington St
8
2
.800
Washington
6
12
.333

Stanford
10
18
0.357
ASU
1
9
.100
Colorado
9
3
.750
ASU
3
15
.167

ASU
9
20
0.310
Stanford
0
11
.000
Stanford
6
4
.600
Wash St
1
17
.056

Wazzu
8
20
0.286
Washington St
0
9
.000
ASU
6
5
.545
Oregon St
1
17
.056

I have Utah with losses at Xavier, at Arizona, at Washington, Oregon, at Cal, at Oregon, at Oregon St and at Colorado
Oregon plays a tough road game in game #2 at Baylor, that's their only loss (but they do have 7 total games which could be losses)
I have Arizona losing to Michigan State this Friday and at Oregon early February. I have them in 8 games which could be losses.

I'll keep these updated as we go throughout the season and it will give you a feel of how much the computers change.

Updated 2/5 to make easier to read.

UTEopia

11-10-2016, 08:43 AM

Thanks. I guess that makes us 11-7 in conference behind Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, Colorado and Cal.

Scratch

11-10-2016, 10:02 AM

So when you're doing this, if you think a team has a 51% chance of winning then they get credited with 1 predicted win, not .51 predicted wins, right? Just trying to figure out the mechanics, and thanks for doing it.

The Thrill

11-10-2016, 11:49 AM

It's all computers and wires man.
Early in the season it's a crap shoot. Just like football there isn't enough comparative information to provide an accurate number but they get close. Computers take several things into account at this point, last years team, % returning, new coach, recruiting numbers...throw it all into the magic box and it spits out a number. Couple that with a time tested bonus for home advantage and voila.

Then take all those numbers and they spit out a difference between the teams. Sagarin makes it somewhat simplified, their "predictor" column is a good gauge of their value, not necessarily their score. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sagarin/

I've taken all of those numbers, plus Massey, plus a few other computer ranking sources and averaged them all together to come up with an average score, which oddly enough is almost the same as Sagarins numbers.

So to answer your question it's not they have a 51% chance, the computer thinks they are 1 point better. The computer rankings typically go to the hundredths place so that's where you get 1/2 points. Usually round up to the closest half point. Essentially at this point of the season, using computer rankings it can predict every game which I have. You're only seeing 5% of my entire program. I weed out all the boring stuff. You might notice that football scores are getting much easier to predict, that because the information is there now. Typically basketball numbers don't begin to align until late December into the conference season. It's a fun thing to watch how certain games have an effect on a team for future match-ups. If you'd like to see the predicted lines for every Utah game I'm happy to post it. Just ask.

Entering all the matchups and putting them all together is the pain in the ass part, which I've done for you all, but I rather enjoy doing it so I'm happy to share my results with the board. Also, if I didn't share them it would just be kind of pointless for my own benefit.

The Thrill

11-10-2016, 11:50 AM

Thanks. I guess that makes us 11-7 in conference behind Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, Colorado and Cal.

I'll post the projected conference records later tonight.

The Thrill

11-19-2016, 10:37 AM

Predicted conference records

CONFERENCE

(16-2) - Arizona

(16-2) - Oregon

(15-3) - UCLA

(12-6) - Colorado

(11-7) - California

(10-8) - Utah

(9-9) - USC

(8-10) - Stanford

(6-12) - Washington

(3-15) - ASU

(1-17) - Wazzu

(1-17) - Oregon St

I have Arizona losing @ UCLA and @ Oregon
I have Oregon losing @UCLA and @ California
I have UCLA losing @ Oregon, @ Colorado and @ Arizona

The Thrill

11-20-2016, 08:19 PM

PREDICTED END OF SEASON RECORDS

W
L

+/- wins

Arizona
27
3
0.900
-1

Oregon
25
3
0.893
-2

UCLA
25
4
0.862
+3

California
23
7
0.767
+2

Colorado
21
9
0.700
--

Utah
19
9
0.679
-1

USC
19
11
0.633
+2

Stanford
14
14
0.500
-4

Washington
14
15
0.483
+4

Wazzu
9
19
0.321
-1

ASU
9
20
0.310
--

Oregon St
9
22
0.290
-7

Oregon State lost to Lamar and @ Nevada and looks worse than expected, hence the -7 win difference from last week.
I had Utah beating UCLA at home but that's flipped to a +1 for UCLA, that's the -1 win for Utah.

CONFERENCE

(16-2) - Arizona

(16-2) - Oregon

(15-3) - UCLA

(12-6) - California

(12-6) - Colorado

(10-8) - Utah

(8-10) - USC

(8-10) - Stanford

(6-12) - Washington

(3-15) - ASU

(1-17) - Wazzu

(1-17) - Oregon St

SoCalPat

11-22-2016, 01:00 PM

The Thrill

11-28-2016, 11:35 PM

PREDICTED
+/-

(30-1) - UCLA
-3

(25-6) - Arizona
+3

(24-6) - USC
-5

(23-8) - Colorado
-1

(20-8) - Utah
-1

(22-9) - Oregon
+6

(20-10) - California
+3

(18-12) - Stanford
-2

(12-18) - Washington
+3

(11-20) - ASU
--

(8-22) - Wazzu
+3

(5-26) - Oregon St
+4

The +/- is the change of losses projected from last week.
For example, last week I had UCLA losing 4 games, this week it's only 1 game (vs Kentucky 12/3)
Utah picked up 2 wins but I had them beating Butler so they are a +1. Picked up wins @ Washington and home vs Oregon.

PREDICTED CONFERENCE
+/-

(18-0) - UCLA
+3

(14-4) - Arizona
-2

(12-6) - USC
-4

(12-6) - Colorado
--

(12-6) - Utah
+2

(11-7) - Oregon
-5

(10-8) - California
-2

(10-8) - Stanford
+2

(4-14) - Washington
-2

(4-14) - ASU
+1

(1-17) - Wazzu
--

(0-18) - Oregon St
-1

For this list the +/- is how many wins they picked up. You can see the two Utah conference wins I mentioned above.

Next 5 games for Utah (predicted scores)
Utah 78 Montana St 60
Utah 75 UVU 63
Xavier 75 Utah 64
Utah 82 Prairie View 56
Utah 75 San Francisco 63

The Thrill

12-04-2016, 05:12 PM

PREDICTED
Last Week

(31-0) - UCLA
-1

(26-4) - USC
-2

(26-5) - Oregon
-4

(25-6) - Arizona
--

(19-11) - California
+1

(19-12) - Colorado
+4

(17-11) - Utah
+3

(17-13) - Stanford
+1

(12-18) - Washington
--

(11-20) - ASU
--

(8-22) - Wazzu
--

(5-26) - Oregon St
--

* - Last week column is the number of losses the team gained or lost.

The Three losses Utah picked up are home vs USC, at Washington and home vs Oregon.
I have Utah swing games (not losses) vs Colorado, @ ASU, vs Calfornia and vs Stanford.
UCLA has three swing games (@ Oregon, @ USC and @ Arizona) but other than that they look to run the table.

Next 5 Utah games predicted:
UTAH 78 UVU 67
Xavier 78 Utah 67 **ROAD**
Utah 85 Prairie View 60
Utah 76 San Francisco 68
Utah 73 Colorado 71

The Thrill

12-04-2016, 05:13 PM

PREDICTED CONFERENCE RECORDS

(18-0) - UCLA

(15-3) - Oregon

(14-4) - USC

(14-4) - Arizona

(10-8) - Colorado

(9-9) - California

(9-9) - Utah

(9-9) - Stanford

(5-13) - Washington

(4-14) - ASU

(1-17) - Wazzu

(0-18) - Oregon St

U-Ute

12-05-2016, 01:25 PM

UCLA looked amazing against Kentucky.

What I was most impressed with was their ability to get to the offensive boards. I don't know how many they ended up with, but every time I was looking, they were getting one.

The Thrill

12-18-2016, 10:55 AM

CURRENT
PREDICTED OVERALL
CONFERENCE PRED
ROAD PRED
OUT OF CONF PRED

(12-0) - UCLA
(31-0) - UCLA
(18-0) - UCLA
(10-0) - UCLA
(13-0) - UCLA

(10-0) - USC
(26-4) - USC
(15-3) - Oregon
(8-3) - USC
(12-0) - USC

(10-2) - Oregon
(26-5) - Oregon
(14-4) - USC
(7-3) - Oregon
(11-2) - Oregon

(10-2) - Arizona
(25-6) - Arizona
(14-4) - Arizona
(7-3) - Arizona
(11-2) - Arizona

(9-2) - California
(20-10) - Utah
(10-8) - Utah
(6-6) - Colorado
(10-2) - Utah

(8-2) - Utah
(20-11) - Colorado
(10-8) - Colorado
(4-6) - Utah
(10-3) - Colorado

(8-3) - Colorado
(18-12) - California
(9-9) - California
(3-7) - ASU
(9-3) - California

(7-3) - Stanford
(17-13) - Stanford
(9-9) - Stanford
(2-7) - California
(8-4) - Stanford

(6-5) - ASU
(11-19) - Washington
(4-14) - Washington
(2-9) - Stanford
(7-5) - Washington

(6-5) - Wazzu
(11-20) - ASU
(4-14) - ASU
(2-10) - Washington
(7-6) - ASU

(4-5) - Washington
(8-22) - Wazzu
(1-17) - Wazzu
(0-9) - Wazzu
(7-5) - Wazzu

(3-8) - Oregon St
(3-28) - Oregon St
(0-18) - Oregon St
(0-13) - Oregon St
(3-10) - Oregon St

Utah predicted losses (@Arizona +10, USC +2, UCLA +10, Oregon +4, @CAL +5, @Stanford +5, @Oregon +10, @ Colorado +4)
Utah predicted swing games win (Colorado -2, @ASU -2, @Washington -1, California -2, Stanford -2)
Utah predicted wins (Hawai'i three game swing, @WSU -7, Oregon St -17, WSU -13, Washington -6, @Oregon St -11)

UCLA best chances for a loss... @ Oregon 12/28, @USC 1/25, @Arizona 2/25
Oregon St best chances for a win... vs Arizona St 2/4, @Washington St 1/4

Utah next five games prediction
Utah 79 San Francisco 69
Utah 75 Illinois State 74
Utah 75 San Diego St 73
Utah 73 Colorado 71
@Arizona 76 Utah 66

UTEopia

12-21-2016, 01:08 PM

sancho

12-21-2016, 01:12 PM

concerned

12-21-2016, 01:33 PM

Speaking of scouting and drafting as an inexact science, here is a redraft of the 2011 draft (which was one of the worst drafts ever for lottery picks). We still end up with Kanter, but get Klay Thompson.

http://www.si.com/nba/2016/12/21/2011-nba-redraft-kawhi-leonard-klay-thompson-jimmy-butler-kyrie-irving

chrisrenrut

12-21-2016, 01:33 PM

That depends on who the 10 wins come against. A win vs UCLA or Zona would go far.

Are we even the favorite in Hawaii?

See some basic analysis of the Hawaii field in the Diamond Head thread. Based on what I can see, I think we should be the favorite, and any loss will be disappointing.

DrumNFeather

12-21-2016, 01:56 PM

Assuming the Utes win out in Hawaii, what conference record will get the Utes into the NCAA tournament? I don't think 10-8 with 1 win in the PAC 12 tournament is enough. Unfortunately, I don't see them doing that well. Hope I am wrong.

That depends on who the 10 wins come against. A win vs UCLA or Zona would go far.

Are we even the favorite in Hawaii?

Our conference home schedule is:

vs. CU
vs. USC
vs. UCLA
vs. Oregon
vs. Oregon St.
vs. WSU
vs. Washington
vs. Cal
vs. Stanford

So, against that home schedule, we will probably be favored to win in 5 of those games? Maybe 6? (CU, OSU, WSU. UW, Stanford).

Which means, we're going to need to pick off one or more of these other 4 games at home (USC, Cal, perhaps).

IF we did that, we'd be at 7 league wins.

Then we'd have to at a minimum sweep WSU and OSU, maybe even UW and Stanford. If we did that, and picked up a win at ASU as well, we'd be looking at 11-12 wins.

sancho

12-21-2016, 03:43 PM

Our conference home schedule is:

vs. CU
vs. USC
vs. UCLA
vs. Oregon
vs. Oregon St.
vs. WSU
vs. Washington
vs. Cal
vs. Stanford

So, against that home schedule, we will probably be favored to win in 5 of those games? Maybe 6? (CU, OSU, WSU. UW, Stanford).

Which means, we're going to need to pick off one or more of these other 4 games at home (USC, Cal, perhaps).

IF we did that, we'd be at 7 league wins.

Then we'd have to at a minimum sweep WSU and OSU, maybe even UW and Stanford. If we did that, and picked up a win at ASU as well, we'd be looking at 11-12 wins.

I normally feel comfortable with this kind of analysis at this point in the season. Not this year, though. I just don't know what we are yet. Our losses to Butler and Xavier were both somewhat close, though I felt like we were clearly the lesser team in each game. Now with Collette and Barefield I want to think we are top 6 in the conference, but who knows?

DrumNFeather

12-21-2016, 05:06 PM

I normally feel comfortable with this kind of analysis at this point in the season. Not this year, though. I just don't know what we are yet. Our losses to Butler and Xavier were both somewhat close, though I felt like we were clearly the lesser team in each game. Now with Collette and Barefield I want to think we are top 6 in the conference, but who knows?

I can get on board with that. Some of my analysis etc. is based on what I've seen from other teams. A week ago I would've told you I think we can get ASU on the road, but they played Creighton pretty tough, and as you note, our sample size is remarkably small. I thought the UVU game might be a good metric, but it seems like anybody who is anybody in the State of Utah has beaten them this season. I'm hoping for a comfortable visit to the Islands, followed by a new year's day win over CU.

The Thrill

12-31-2016, 07:16 PM

PREDICTED
CONFERENCE
ROAD

(29-2) - UCLA
(16-2) - UCLA
(8-2) - UCLA

(28-3) - Oregon
(17-1) - Oregon
(8-2) - Oregon

(27-4) - Arizona
(16-2) - Arizona
(8-2) - Arizona

(24-7) - USC
(11-7) - USC
(7-4) - USC

(20-11) - Colorado
(10-8) - Colorado
(5-7) - Colorado

(18-12) - California
(9-9) - California
(2-7) - California

(17-13) - Utah
(8-10) - Utah
(3-8) - Utah

(15-15) - Stanford
(7-11) - Stanford
(1-10) - Stanford

(14-17) - ASU
(7-11) - ASU
(4-6) - ASU

(13-17) - Washington
(6-12) - Washington
(2-10) - Washington

(8-22) - Wazzu
(1-17) - Wazzu
(0-9) - Wazzu

(4-27) - Oregon St
(0-18) - Oregon St
(0-13) - Oregon St

UCLA dropped two wins (Oregon which actually happened and now they are +1 at Arizona)
The game at Arizona will be huge since Oregon looks to be +6 at UCLA.
I have Arizona losing @ UCLA +6 and @ Oregon +4.

Utah picked up two losses (San Francisco and now +1 @Arizona State)
Utes losses 10 (@Arizona +13, @ASU +1, USC +2, UCLA +9, @Washington +3, Oregon +7, @Cal +6, @Stanford +4, @Oregon +13, @Colorado +6)
Utes Wins 8 (Colorado -1, @Washington St -6.5, Oregon St -13.5, Washington St -12.5, Washington -4, @Oregon St -7.5, Cal -1, Stanford -3)

Best realistic record for Utah 12-6 in conference - 21-9 overall
Worst realistic record for Utah 4-14 in conference - 13-17 overall

Next 5 games predictions (1-4 tough week ... 3-2 best case scenario) - Kuzma permitting...

Utah 73 Colorado 72
@Arizona 76 Utah 64
@Arizona St 81 Utah 80
USC 75 Utah 74
UCLA 83 Utah 74

The Thrill

01-06-2017, 08:14 PM

CONFERENCE PRED
CURRENT OVERALL
PREDICTED OVERALL
ROAD
OUT OF CONF

(17-1) - Oregon
(14-2) - Oregon
(28-3) - Oregon
(8-2) - Oregon
(11-2) - Oregon

(16-2) - Arizona
(14-2) - Arizona
(27-4) - Arizona
(8-2) - Arizona
(11-2) - Arizona

(16-2) - UCLA
(15-1) - UCLA
(29-2) - UCLA
(8-2) - UCLA
(13-0) - UCLA

(12-6) - Utah
(10-4) - Utah
(21-9) - Utah
(6-5) - Utah
(9-3) - Utah

(11-7) - Colorado
(10-5) - Colorado
(21-10) - Colorado
(6-6) - Colorado
(10-3) - Colorado

(10-8) - USC
(15-1) - USC
(23-8) - USC
(6-5) - USC
(13-0) - USC

(10-8) - California
(10-5) - California
(19-11) - California
(3-6) - California
(9-3) - California

(7-11) - ASU
(9-7) - ASU
(14-17) - ASU
(4-6) - ASU
(7-6) - ASU

(4-14) - Stanford
(8-7) - Stanford
(12-18) - Stanford
(1-10) - Stanford
(8-4) - Stanford

(3-15) - Washington
(7-7) - Washington
(10-20) - Washington
(2-10) - Washington
(7-5) - Washington

(2-16) - Wazzu
(9-5) - Wazzu
(9-21) - Wazzu
(1-8) - Wazzu
(7-5) - Wazzu

(0-18) - Oregon St
(4-12) - Oregon St
(4-27) - Oregon St
(0-13) - Oregon St
(4-9) - Oregon St

Colorado game and playing Arizona close changed a lot.

Utes picked up 4 wins. (@ASU -2, USC -1, @Washington -1, @Stanford -1)
Utes losses 5 (UCLA +8, Oregon +6, @Cal +6, @Oregon +12, @Colorado +3)
Utes wins 11 (@ASU -2, USC -1, @Wazzu -6.5, @Washington -1, Oregon St -15, @Stanford -1, Wazzu -12.5, Washington -7, @OSU -9, Cal -1, Stanford -7)

Next 5 games prediction (4-1 predicted)
Utah 80 @ASU 78
Utah 74 USC 73
UCLA 81 Utah 74
Utah 76 @Washington St 69
Utah 78 @Washington 77

U-Ute

01-09-2017, 12:05 PM

I'm not sure what impact playing Arizona and UCLA once this year will have on our chances.

We need the RPI help, but only playing them both on the road means we'll probably go 0-2.

It'd be nice to have these guys at home too.

UTEopia

01-09-2017, 09:06 PM

Next 5 games prediction (4-1 predicted)
Utah 80 @ASU 78
Utah 74 USC 73
UCLA 81 Utah 74
Utah 76 @Washington St 69
Utah 78 @Washington 77

If the Utes can do this, I will be very happy.

Mormon Red Death

01-09-2017, 09:41 PM

U-Ute

01-10-2017, 08:40 AM

We play ucla only at home this year.

Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk

Yeah. I didn't realize the games this week were at home until last night when I heard an ad for the UCLA game.

The Thrill

01-16-2017, 07:17 PM

If the Utes can do this, I will be very happy.

Next 5 games prediction (4-1 predicted)
Utah 80 @ASU 78 - 88-82 Utah
Utah 74 USC 73 - 86-64 Utah
UCLA 81 Utah 74 - 83-82 UCLA
Utah 76 @Washington St 69
Utah 78 @Washington 77

chrisrenrut

01-16-2017, 07:27 PM

Next 5 games prediction (4-1 predicted)
Utah 80 @ASU 78 - 88-82 Utah
Utah 74 USC 73 - 86-64 Utah
UCLA 81 Utah 74 - 83-82 UCLA
Utah 76 @Washington St 69
Utah 78 @Washington 77

Road sweep! :rockon:

The Thrill

01-16-2017, 07:31 PM

CONFERENCE PRED
CURRENT OVERALL
PREDICTED OVERALL
ROAD

(17-1) - Oregon
(16-2) - Oregon
(28-3) - Oregon
(8-2) - Oregon

(16-2) - UCLA
(18-1) - UCLA
(29-2) - UCLA
(8-2) - UCLA

(16-2) - Arizona
(16-2) - Arizona
(27-4) - Arizona
(8-2) - Arizona

(12-6) - Utah
(12-5) - Utah
(21-9) - Utah
(6-5) - Utah

(12-6) - California
(13-5) - California
(21-9) - California
(5-4) - California

(10-8) - USC
(16-3) - USC
(23-8) - USC
(7-4) - USC

(7-11) - Colorado
(10-8) - Colorado
(17-14) - Colorado
(4-8) - Colorado

(7-11) - ASU
(9-9) - ASU
(14-17) - ASU
(4-6) - ASU

(5-13) - Stanford
(10-8) - Stanford
(13-17) - Stanford
(1-10) - Stanford

(4-14) - Washington
(8-9) - Washington
(11-19) - Washington
(2-10) - Washington

(2-16) - Wazzu
(9-8) - Wazzu
(9-21) - Wazzu
(1-8) - Wazzu

(0-18) - Oregon St
(4-14) - Oregon St
(4-27) - Oregon St
(0-13) - Oregon St

In conference Cal had the best week, picked up 2 wins. Washington and @Stanford
Everybody else pretty much stayed put and every game went as planned.

If Utah and Cal split home and home both finishing 12-6

Utes losses remaining 4 (Oregon +5, @Cal +4, @Oregon +11, @Colorado +1)
Utes wins remaining 9 (@Wazzu -8.5, @Washington -2.5, Oregon St -18, @Stanford -1.5, Wazzu -14.5, Washington -8.5, @OSU -12, Cal -2.5, Stanford -7.5)

Utes improved the odds in every game from last week

Last week future lines
Utes losses 5 (UCLA +8, Oregon +6, @Cal +6, @Oregon +12, @Colorado +3)
Utes wins 11 (@ASU -2, USC -1, @Wazzu -6.5, @Washington -1, Oregon St -15, @Stanford -1, Wazzu -12.5, Washington -7, @OSU -9, Cal -1, Stanford -7)

Next 6 games predicted scores (4-2)
Utah 77 @Washington St 68
Utah 78 @Washington 76
Oregon 75 Utah 71
Utah 80 Oregon State 61
Cal 72 Utah 68
Utah 72 Stanford 71

The Thrill

01-22-2017, 03:35 PM

CURRENT CONF
CONFERENCE PRED

CURRENT OVERALL
PREDICTED OVERALL

(7-0) - Oregon
(17-1) - Oregon

(18-2) - Oregon
(28-3) - Oregon

(7-0) - Arizona
(17-1) - Arizona

(18-2) - Arizona
(28-3) - Arizona

(6-2) - UCLA
(15-3) - UCLA

(19-2) - UCLA
(28-3) - UCLA

(5-2) - Utah
(13-5) - Utah

(14-5) - Utah
(22-8) - Utah

(5-3) - California
(12-6) - California

(14-6) - California
(21-9) - California

(3-4) - USC
(10-8) - USC

(16-4) - USC
(23-8) - USC

(2-4) - ASU
(7-11) - ASU

(9-10) - ASU
(14-17) - ASU

(0-7) - Colorado
(5-13) - Colorado

(10-10) - Colorado
(15-16) - Colorado

(3-5) - Stanford
(5-13) - Stanford

(11-9) - Stanford
(13-17) - Stanford

(2-5) - Washington
(4-14) - Washington

(9-10) - Washington
(11-19) - Washington

(3-4) - Wazzu
(3-15) - Wazzu

(10-9) - Wazzu
(10-20) - Wazzu

(0-7) - Oregon St
(0-18) - Oregon St

(4-16) - Oregon St
(4-27) - Oregon St

Oregon is still the team to beat, Utah has their shot Thursday.

Changes
Arizona beating UCLA was an upset
Washington beating Colorado was an upset
Utah picked up a win vs Colorado on 2/23

These are the key games and predictions coming up
Oregon +3 at UCLA - 2/9 - 10-1 remaining
Arizona +4 at Oregon - 2/4 - 10-1 remaining - Only meeting, could decide conference season champ
UCLA +4 at Arizona - 2/25 - 9-1 remaining
Utah (+3 vs Oregon, +1 at Cal, +9 at Oregon) - 8-3 remaining
Cal (+11 at Arizona, +5 vs Oregon, +6 at Utah) - 7-3 remaining. If things hold true the game on 3/2 will be for 4th place.
USC (+5 vs UCLA, 3 game stretch +6 vs Oregon, +11 at UCLA, +12 at Arizona...rough) 7-4 remaining.

Predicted last week
Utah 77 @Washington St 68 - Utah 88-47
Utah 78 @Washington 76 - Utah 94-72

Next 6 games predicted scores (4-2)
Oregon 74 Utah 71
Utah 81 Oregon State 60
Cal 71 Utah 70
Utah 73 Stanford 69
Utah 82 Washington State 64
Utah 83 Washington 71

The Thrill

01-29-2017, 10:44 PM

CURRENT CONF
CONFERENCE PRED

CURRENT OVERALL
PREDICTED OVERALL

(9-0) - Arizona
(17-1) - Arizona

(19-2) - Arizona
(28-3) - Arizona

(8-1) - Oregon
(16-2) - Oregon

(19-3) - Oregon
(27-4) - Oregon

(6-3) - UCLA
(14-4) - UCLA

(19-3) - UCLA
(27-4) - UCLA

(6-3) - California
(13-5) - Utah

(15-6) - Utah
(22-8) - Utah

(6-3) - Utah
(11-7) - California

(14-6) - California
(20-10) - California

(5-4) - USC
(11-7) - USC

(18-4) - USC
(24-7) - USC

(4-5) - Wazzu
(7-11) - Colorado

(12-10) - Colorado
(17-14) - Colorado

(3-6) - Stanford
(6-12) - ASU

(10-11) - ASU
(13-18) - ASU

(3-6) - ASU
(5-13) - Stanford

(11-9) - Stanford
(13-17) - Stanford

(2-7) - Colorado
(4-14) - Washington

(9-11) - Washington
(11-19) - Washington

(2-7) - Washington
(4-14) - Wazzu

(10-10) - Wazzu
(11-19) - Wazzu

(0-9) - Oregon St
(0-18) - Oregon St

(4-18) - Oregon St
(4-27) - Oregon St

Oregon loss to Colorado changed quite a bit. Their game vs Arizona became a must win.
UCLA picked up a loss vs USC, surprise #2 of the week.
Cal is now an underdog to Colorado and Washington St beating ASU tonight was surprise #3...crazy week.

These are the key games and predictions coming up
Arizona +3 at Oregon - Thursday - 8-1 remaining
Oregon +3 at UCLA - 2/9 - 8-1 remaining
UCLA +4 at Arizona - 2/25 - 8-1 remaining
Utah (+2 at Cal, +9 at Oregon) - 7-2 remaining - Game at Cal could be for 4th place.
Cal (+11 at Arizona, +5 vs Oregon, +5 at Utah, +1 at Colorado) - 5-4 remaining. USC (3 game stretch +5 vs Oregon, +11 at UCLA, +11 at Arizona...rough) 6-3 remaining.
Colorado (+2 at Stanford, +6 at Cal, +14 at Oregon +2 vs Utah) 5-4 remainingPredicted last week
Oregon 74 Utah 71 - Oregon 73-67
Utah 81 Oregon State 60 - Utah 86-78 (75-47 with 8 minutes left)

Last 9 games predicted scores (7-2)
@Cal 71 Utah 69
Utah 73 @Stanford 70
Utah 82 Washington State 65
Utah 83 Washington 71
@Oregon 77 Utah 68
Utah 78 @Oregon St 64
Utah 75 @Colorado 74
Utah 72 California 68
Utah 76 Stanford 67

The Thrill

01-29-2017, 10:55 PM

Easiest schedule remaining
Top four will improve their win %, bottom 8 will lower their win %

1. Utah
2. Oregon
3. UCLA
4. Colorado
------------------
5. Arizona
6. California
7. USC
8. Oregon State
9. ASU
10.Washington
11.Stanford
12.Washington State

The way I figured this is relative to the teams current record.
Utah is 15-6 .714 and I project them to be 22-8 .733 for a +.019% win increast
Washington St is currently 10-10 .500 and I see them finishing 11-19 for a -.133% win decrease

The Thrill

02-05-2017, 09:44 AM

I was looking back at the first of the season numbers. It's mostly fallen in line with Utah picking up 2 wins (@Washington, @Colorado) but adding 2 losses (San Francisco and Butler) but no surprise losses in conference.
I had them 10-8 in conference, with the two wins (still have to play @Colorado) I have them finishing 12-6 in Conference.

I'll post an updated end of season after the Cal/Colorado game this afternoon.

The Thrill

02-06-2017, 07:16 PM

***NOT MARCH 6TH...FEBRUARY 6TH***

CURRENT CONF
CONFERENCE PRED

CURRENT OVERALL
PREDICTED OVERALL

(10-1) - Oregon
(17-1) - Arizona
--
(21-3) - Arizona
(28-3) - Arizona

(10-1) - Arizona
(16-2) - Oregon
--
(21-3) - Oregon
(27-4) - Oregon

(8-3) - UCLA
(14-4) - UCLA
--
(21-3) - UCLA
(27-4) - UCLA

(8-3) - California
(12-6) - Utah
-1
(15-8) - Utah
(21-9) - Utah

(7-4) - USC
(12-6) - California
+1
(17-6) - California
(21-9) - California

(6-5) - Utah
(11-7) - USC
--
(20-4) - USC
(24-7) - USC

(4-7) - Stanford
(7-11) - Colorado
--
(13-11) - Colorado
(17-14) - Colorado

(4-7) - Wazzu
(6-12) - ASU
--
(11-13) - ASU
(13-18) - ASU

(4-7) - ASU
(5-13) - Stanford
--
(12-11) - Stanford
(13-17) - Stanford

(3-8) - Colorado
(4-14) - Washington
--
(9-14) - Washington
(11-19) - Washington

(2-9) - Washington
(4-14) - Wazzu
--
(11-12) - Wazzu
(11-19) - Wazzu

(0-11) - Oregon St
(0-18) - Oregon St
--
(4-20) - Oregon St
(4-27) - Oregon St

Last week moves Cal and Utah into a tie for 4th, providing Utah beats Cal in Salt Lake.
Cal still has a tougher schedule. 5 of 7 on the road going 4-3 (Including a 2 point win at Stanford and a 1 point win at Colorado). They could easily go 2-5 to finish 10-8 in Conference.

Here's how I see it for Cal - 3-4
W Cal 78 @ASU 74
L @Arizona 73 Cal 64
W Cal 69 @Stanford 67
L Oregon 71 Cal 67
W Cal 77 Oregon State 58
L @Utah 72 Cal 69
L Cal 71 @Colorado 70

Here's how I see it for USC - 4-3
W USC 81 Oregon St 62
L Oregon 75 USC 71
L @UCLA 85 USC 75
L @Arizona 77 USC 68
W USC 82 @ASU 78
W USC 82 Washington St 67
W USC 83 Washington 72

Here's how I see it for Utah - 6-1
W Utah 82 Washington St 66
W Utah 83 Washington 72
L @Oregon 78 Utah 68
W Utah 78 @Oregon St 65
W Utah 75 @Colorado 74
W Utah 72 Cal 69
W Utah 76 Stanford 68

If all things hold true Utah needs Colorado to beat Cal on the last weekend to hold 4th and a 1st round BYE.

Last Week Predicted
@Cal 71 Utah 69 - Actual @Cal 77 Utah 75 2OT
Utah 73 @Stanford 70 - Actual @Stanford 81 Utah 75

I have the following losses ahead of Utah
@UCLA 79 Oregon 76 - Thursday
@Arizona 78 UCLA 76 - 2/25

The Thrill

02-10-2017, 11:43 AM

Upcoming predictions

Utah 4-2
W Utah 83 Washington 71
L @Oregon 78 Utah 68
W Utah 78 @Oregon St 65
L @Colorado 75 Utah 74 (Could decide 4th place)
W Utah 71 California 69
W Utah 76 Stanford 68

California 3-3
L @Arizona 72 California 64
W California 69 Stanford 66
L Oregon 71 California 67
W California 77 Oregon St 57
L @Utah 71 California 69
W California 71 @Colorado 70 (Could decide 4th place)

USC 3-3
L Oregon 76 USC 71
L @UCLA 85 USC 75
L @Arizona 77 USC 68
W USC 82 ASU 77
W USC 82 Washington St 67
W USC 83 Washington 72

Oregon 6-0 - (toughest game @California 71-67)
Arizona 6-0 - (toughest game home vs UCLA 78-76) - Could decide 2nd place
UCLA 5-1 - (Loss @Arizona 76-78) - Could decide 2nd place

The above games would give the final standings in Pac-12

(17-1) - Arizona

(16-2) - Oregon

(14-4) - UCLA

(12-6) - California

(11-7) - Utah

(11-7) - USC

The Thrill

02-12-2017, 11:39 AM

CURRENT CONF
CONFERENCE PRED
CURRENT OVERALL
PREDICTED OVERALL

(10-1) - Oregon
(17-1) - Arizona
(23-3) - Arizona
(28-3) - Arizona

(10-1) - Arizona
(16-2) - Oregon
(22-4) - Oregon
(27-4) - Oregon

(8-3) - UCLA
(14-4) - UCLA
(22-3) - UCLA
(27-4) - UCLA

(8-3) - California
(12-6) - California
(18-7) - California
(21-9) - California

(7-4) - USC
(12-6) - Utah
(17-8) - Utah
(21-9) - Utah

(6-5) - Utah
(11-7) - USC
(21-5) - USC
(24-7) - USC

(4-7) - Stanford
(7-11) - Colorado
(14-11) - Colorado
(17-14) - Colorado

(4-7) - Wazzu
(6-12) - ASU
(12-14) - ASU
(13-18) - ASU

(4-7) - ASU
(5-13) - Stanford
(12-13) - Stanford
(13-17) - Stanford

(3-8) - Colorado
(4-14) - Washington
(9-16) - Washington
(11-19) - Washington

(2-9) - Washington
(4-14) - Wazzu
(11-13) - Wazzu
(11-19) - Wazzu

(0-11) - Oregon St
(0-18) - Oregon St
(4-21) - Oregon St
(4-27) - Oregon St

I'm assuming UCLA and Colorado beat the two worst teams today.
All the final standings stayed the same as last week. Utah and Cal are in a dead heat for 4th.
Remember, 4th is important because you get a day 1 BYE.

The official tie breaker is head to head. If Utah can beat Cal at home they would tie 1-1.
The 2nd tie breaker is record versus top team and down if there are ties.

Arizona : Cal is 0-2, Utah is 0-1
Oregon : Both teams are 0-1 with 1 to play. Cal is at home, Utah on road (thursday)
UCLA : Both teams are 0-1
USC : Both teams are 1-0
Colorado : Both teams are 1-0 with 1 to play. Both in Boulder, both have Colorado losing by 1. Obviously huge games.
ASU : Cal is 2-0, Utah is 1-0
Stanford : This could be the separator if Colorado loses both. Cal is 1-0, Utah is 0-1. With each 1 to play. I have Stanford losing both which would give Cal the better record.
If Stanford somehow beats Cal and Utah beats Stanford on the last day, then Utah takes 4th for having a better overall record.

Still a lot could happen.
Here's the current tournament projections if all games hold true, no upsets.

2136

The Thrill

02-12-2017, 06:31 PM

Last 9 games predicted scores (7-2)
@Cal 71 Utah 69
Utah 73 @Stanford 70
Utah 82 Washington State 65
Utah 83 Washington 71
@Oregon 77 Utah 68
Utah 78 @Oregon St 64
Utah 75 @Colorado 74
Utah 72 California 68
Utah 76 Stanford 67

Actual so far (3-2)
@Cal 77 Utah 75 (2OT)
Stanford 81 Utah 75
Utah 70 Washington State 70
Utah 85 Washington 61
@Oregon 79 Utah 61

The Thrill

02-20-2017, 10:15 PM

CURRENT CONF
CONFERENCE PRED

CURRENT OVERALL
PREDICTED OVERALL

(10-1) - Oregon
(17-1) - Arizona
---
(25-3) - Arizona
(28-3) - Arizona

(10-1) - Arizona
(16-2) - Oregon
---
(24-4) - Oregon
(27-4) - Oregon

(8-3) - UCLA
(14-4) - UCLA
---
(24-3) - UCLA
(27-4) - UCLA

(8-3) - California
(11-7) - California
-1
(18-8) - California
(20-10) - California

(7-4) - USC
(11-7) - USC
---
(21-6) - USC
(24-7) - USC

(6-5) - Utah
(10-8) - Utah
-2
(17-10) - Utah
(19-11) - Utah

(4-7) - Stanford
(8-10) - Colorado
+1
(16-12) - Colorado
(18-13) - Colorado

(4-7) - Wazzu
(6-12) - ASU
---
(13-15) - ASU
(13-18) - ASU

(4-7) - ASU
(6-12) - Stanford
+1
(13-13) - Stanford
(14-16) - Stanford

(3-8) - Colorado
(5-13) - Wazzu
-1
(12-15) - Wazzu
(12-18) - Wazzu

(2-9) - Washington
(3-15) - Washington
+1
(9-18) - Washington
(10-20) - Washington

(0-11) - Oregon St
(1-17) - Oregon St
+1
(5-23) - Oregon St
(5-26) - Oregon St

Utah picked up losses @Oregon St and @Colorado (74-75)
California picked up a loss Saturday at Stanford (which opened the door for Utah for 4th place but the Utes blew it)
Stanford beat Cal at home (which opened the door for Utah for 4th place but the Utes let everybody down)
Colorado is now favored vs Utah by 1 this week, but let's be honest...take Colorado in that game to cover by a lot.
Washington picked up a loss vs ASU. ASU picked up a win at Washington but an embarrassing loss at Washington St., they split but not the expected split.
Oregon St picked up their first win of the season in conference, (which destroyed all hope for Utah for 4th place...yes the Utes blew it)

Last 9 games predicted scores (7-2)
@Cal 71 Utah 69
Utah 73 @Stanford 70
Utah 82 Washington State 65
Utah 83 Washington 71
@Oregon 77 Utah 68
Utah 78 @Oregon St 64
Utah 75 @Colorado 74
Utah 72 California 68
Utah 76 Stanford 67
Actual Games (2-4)
@Cal 77 Utah 75 (2ot)
@Stanford 81 Utah 75
Utah 74 Washington State 70
Utah 85 Washington 61
@Oregon 79 Utah 61
@Oregon St 68 Utah 67
@Colorado 75 Utah 74
Utah 71 California 69
Utah 75 Stanford 68

The good news is the Utes are now set to face Washington in the first round.
The bad news is that means they'd face UCLA in the second round.

2144

The Thrill

02-20-2017, 10:17 PM

For the record, the Utes now join Prairie View A&M, Texas-San Antonio, Southern Oregon and Kent State as teams who lost to Oregon St this year.

DrumNFeather

02-21-2017, 07:47 AM

For the record, the Utes now join Prairie View A&M, Texas-San Antonio, Southern Oregon and Kent State as teams who lost to Oregon St this year.

On the bright side...Coppin State won last night, so our RPI should just skyrocket.

The Thrill

02-26-2017, 09:45 PM

CURRENT CONF
CONFERENCE PRED

CURRENT OVERALL
PREDICTED OVERALL

(15-2) - Oregon
(16-2) - Oregon
--
(26-4) - Oregon
(27-4) - Oregon

(15-2) - Arizona
(16-2) - Arizona
-1
(26-4) - Arizona
(27-4) - Arizona

(13-3) - UCLA
(15-3) - UCLA
+1
(26-3) - UCLA
(28-3) - UCLA

(10-6) - California
(11-7) - California
--
(19-9) - California
(20-10) - California

(9-7) - Utah
(11-7) - Utah
+1
(18-10) - Utah
(20-10) - Utah

(8-8) - USC
(10-8) - USC
-1
(21-8) - USC
(23-8) - USC

(7-10) - ASU
(7-11) - Colorado
-1
(16-13) - Colorado
(17-14) - Colorado

(6-10) - Colorado
(7-11) - ASU
+1
(14-16) - ASU
(14-17) - ASU

(6-10) - Stanford
(6-12) - Stanford
--
(14-14) - Stanford
(14-16) - Stanford

(6-10) - Wazzu
(6-12) - Wazzu
+1
(13-15) - Wazzu
(13-17) - Wazzu

(2-14) - Washington
(2-16) - Washington
+1
(9-19) - Washington
(9-21) - Washington

(1-16) - Oregon St
(1-17) - Oregon St
--
(5-25) - Oregon St
(5-26) - Oregon St

Utah picked up a win over Colorado
UCLA picked up a win over Arizona
ASU picked up a win over USC
WSU picked up a win over Washington

Final week predictions
@Utah 71 California 69
@UCLA 91 Washington 72
@USC 82 Washington St 68
@Colorado 74 Stanford 70
--------------------
@Utah 76 Stanford 68
Oregon 80 @Oregon St 60
Arizona 82 @Arizona St 71
@UCLA 90 Washington St 67
@Colorado 70 California 70 (calling OT game)
@USC 83 Washington 73

Utah needs to sweep and have Colorado win vs California to secure 4th.
If you recall, the tiebreaker is head to head.
Utah 1 California 1 (If Utah can win Thursday)
The next tie breaker is record vs top down

Arizona - Utah 0-1 - Cal 0-2
Oregon - Utah 0-2 - 0-2
UCLA - Utah 0-1 - 0-1
USC - Utah 1-0 - 1-0
Colorado - Utah 1-1 - Cal 2-0 (If Cal beats Colorado they would own the tiebreaker, if Colorado wins there is no tie, Utah takes 4th)
ASU - Utah 1-0 - Cal 2-0
Stanford - Utah 1-1 - Cal 1-1
Wazzu - Utah 2-0 - Cal 1-0
Washington - Utah 2-0 - Cal 1-0
Oregon St - Utah 1-1 - Cal 2-0 (Cal wins tiebreaker if it dropped this far.)

Obviously the Utes have to take care of Cal first to stay alive for a day 1 BYE.
2nd they have to beat Stanford. My computer picks both those as wins for Utah.
Either way it appears (don't overlook the Beavs again) to be a Utah/Colorado 2nd round matchup...who will get 1 day extra rest?

2150

The Thrill

03-12-2017, 02:53 PM

Here we are at the beginning of a new season.

PREDICTED END OF SEASON RECORDS

End of Season
W
L

Road Games
W
L

OOC Record
W
L

Pac12 Conf
W
L

Oregon
27
1
0.964
Oregon
9
1
.900
Arizona
11
1
.917
Arizona
16
2
.889

Arizona
28
2
0.933
Arizona
9
1
.900
UCLA
10
1
.909
Oregon
16
2
.889

UCLA
22
7
0.759
UCLA
5
5
.500
Washington
10
1
.909
UCLA
15
3
.833

Utah
22
8
0.733
Colorado
6
6
.500
Oregon
9
1
.900
Colorado
12
6
.667

Colorado
21
9
0.700
California
4
5
.444
Utah
9
1
.900
California
11
7
.611

California
21
9
0.700
Washington
4
8
.333
Oregon St
11
2
.846
Utah
10
8
.556

Washington
18
11
0.621
Utah
3
7
.300
California
10
2
.833
USC
9
9
.500

USC
17
13
0.567
USC
3
8
.273
USC
10
2
.833
Stanford
8
10
.444

Oregon St
16
15
0.516
Oregon State
3
10
.231
Washington St
8
2
.800
Washington
6
12
.333

Stanford
10
18
0.357
ASU
1
9
.100
Colorado
9
3
.750
ASU
3
15
.167

ASU
9
20
0.310
Stanford
0
11
.000
Stanford
6
4
.600
Wash St
1
17
.056

Wazzu
8
20
0.286
Washington St
0
9
.000
ASU
6
5
.545
Oregon St
1
17
.056

ACTUAL END OF SEASON RECORDS

End of Season
W
L

Road Games
W
L

OOC Record
W
L

Pac12 Conf
W
L

Oregon
29
5
+2
Oregon
7
3
-2
Arizona
13
3
+2
Arizona
16
2
--

Arizona
30
4
-2
Arizona
9
1
--
UCLA
14
1
+4
Oregon
16
2
--

UCLA
29
4
+7
UCLA
8
2
+3
Washington
7
6
-3
UCLA
15
3
--

Utah
20
11
-2
Colorado
4
8
-2
Oregon
13
2
+4
Colorado
8
10
-4

Colorado
19
14
-2
California
3
6
-1
Utah
9
4
--
California
10
8
-1

California
21
12
--
Washington
1
11
-3
Oregon St
4
10
-7
Utah
11
7
+1

Washington
9
22
-9
Utah
5
6
+2
California
11
4
+1
USC
10
8
+1

USC
24
9
+7
USC
6
5
+3
USC
14
1
+4
Stanford
6
12
-2

Oregon St
5
27
-11
Oregon State
0
13
-3
Washington St
7
6
-1
Washington
2
16
-4

Stanford
14
17
+4
ASU
4
6
+3
Colorado
11
6
+2
ASU
7
11
+4

ASU
15
18
+6
Stanford
1
10
+1
Stanford
8
5
+2
Wash St
6
12
+5

Wazzu
13
18
+5
Washington St
2
8
+2
ASU
8
7
+2
Oregon St
1
17
--

For all intents and purpose, Utah had a successful season. Picked up +2 road wins they shouldn't have +1 Pac12 game they shouldn't have but had -2 losses they shouldn't have. (San Fran and Oregon St)