Life in the Trump Era, Part 2

[LA Ute]

The prior thread on this subject was apparently deleted accidentally — we still aren’t sure how that happened. So here’s a new one.

I’ll start with with this. I think the concepts of what we have long called liberalism and conservatism are changing. Trump’s rise may be a symptom of that transformation. Here’s a piece that examines Trump and traditional American liberalism. I now there are others out there about his impact on conservatism. If you know of any, please post.

The Exhaustion of American Liberalism

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/the-exhaustion-of-american-liberalism-1488751826

[LA Ute]

Here’s one on the other side:

If Donald Trump is a 'conservative,' the right needs a new name

https://usat.ly/2vVl1jK

And another, from the Deseret News of all places:

Bill Kristol on Trump, Romney, the GOP, conservatives and Mormons

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/900003428/bill-kristol-on-trump-romney-the-gop-conservatives-and-mormons.html

[Dwight Schr-Ute]

The prior thread on this subject was apparently deleted accidentally — we still aren’t sure how that happened.

LOL. Sure. What’s your next chapter now that you’ve quit working at Twitter?!



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[LA Ute]

LOL. Sure. What’s your next chapter now that you’ve quit working at Twitter?!



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Nice Facebook account you've got there, buddy. Be a shame if anything happened to it.

:evil:

[LA Ute]

Opinion Pupeteering


Jenna Abrams was a popular figure in right-wing social media circles. Boasting nearly 70,000 followers, Abrams was featured in numerous news articles during the 2016 election, spotlighted by outlets as varied as USA Today, the Washington Post, the BBC, and Yahoo! Sports. Her tweet about CNN airing porn during Anthony Bourdain’s show (it didn’t) was reported by numerous outlets.

But Abrams never existed.

http://datechguyblog.com/2017/11/04/opinion-puppeteering-also-i-told-you-so/

[UTEopia]

That prior thread was impeached.

[LA Ute]

That prior thread was impeached.

Or maybe the 25th Amendment was invoked to remove it.

[NorthwestUteFan]

Or maybe the 25th Amendment was invoked to remove it.Perhaps but that doesn't mean anything unless both houses agree to remove it.

[LA Ute]

Perhaps but that doesn't mean anything unless both houses agree to remove it.

Than I am afraid what we've seen is a bloodless, unauthorized and accidental coup. If Peter Sellers were alive he'd be perfect for the lead role in the movie.

http://www.utahby5.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=2284&stc=1

[NorthwestUteFan]

And that is terrifying.

[U-Ute]

And that is terrifying.

Wait a minute.

Has anyone actually seen LA Ute and Peter Sellers in the same room at the same time together?

ANbD1CCdA3iI8

[LA Ute]

And that is terrifying.

I was thinking that Peter Sellers would play the person who caused the old thread to be deleted.

[LA Ute]

Wait a minute.

Has anyone actually seen LA Ute and Peter Sellers in the same room at the same time together?

ANbD1CCdA3iI8

Why do you think I shaved my mustache?

[NorthwestUteFan]

Why do you think I shaved my mustache?New stake calling?

[LA Ute]

New stake calling?

Nah. We have guys with beards on our high council. I did shave, but only after no one was suggesting any longer that I do so. (I do have an inner rebel.)

[LA Ute]

Since her election loss Hillary Clinton has been a constant media presence trying to explain all the reasons lost the election (my latest count is 30 excuses). Along with her blame game, at times Ms. Clinton has hinted she might run again in 2020. By drawing the coverage, Hillary’s been squeezing out other Democrats from receiving coverage.

Enter Donna Brazile, whose book “Hacks” feeds the rumor her winning of the nomination wasn’t fair, claims that the campaign was incompetent, had racist and misogynistic elements, and was too arrogant in its belief they had the election won to listen to advice that they were in trouble.

If Hillary Clinton’s book is named, “What Happened,” Brazile’s book could have been titled “What Really Happened.” Donna Brazile is a long-time Democratic Party operative who twice served as interim chairman of the party. She wouldn’t have written a book bashing Hillary Clinton if she wasn’t trying to free the party from the grasp of the Clinton machine.

http://lidblog.com/donna-braziles-book-was-a-coupdetat/

[U-Ute]

http://lidblog.com/donna-braziles-book-was-a-coupdetat/

While I don't believe the more click-bait worthy parts of her story, this caught my eye:


Apparently, President Obama left the party $24 million in debt after the 2012 campaign and had been paying that off very slowly. Brazile claimed the party (under Debbie Wasserman Schultz), the Hillary Victory Fund, and Hillary for America signed a secret joint agreement that said, in exchange for the Hillary Campaign to raising money to help make the party solvent, Hillary would control the party’s personnel, finances, strategy, and all the money raised.”

A candidate usually takes over the party once they win the nomination, but this occurred a year prior to earning the nomination, which meant that during the heart of the primary process, the party decisions were made by the Clintons, which most probably were made to help the Clintons.

That is shady AF and explains why they iced Bernie out.

They needed Hillary to win because they hitched their financial wagon to the Clintons.

The Joker talking to both parties:

opNHCbcxJLHri

[LA Ute]

My own 3 kids are pretty unimpressed by both political parties. This CNN poll suggests that most people are down on the Dems and the GOP. The headline here is a bit misleading, because the Repubs are even worse off; the story is that they haven't dropped as much as the Dems.

Poll: Views of Democratic Party hit lowest mark in 25 years (http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/07/politics/cnn-poll-republicans-democrats-taxes/index.html)
Our political elites in both parties are pretty much stinking things up these days. Awful leadership, much more interested in pleasing their donors than in making good policy.

[concerned]

My own 3 kids are pretty unimpressed by both political parties. This CNN poll suggests that most people are down on the Dems and the GOP. The headline here is a bit misleading, because the Repubs are even worse off; the story is that they haven't dropped as much as the Dems.

Poll: Views of Democratic Party hit lowest mark in 25 years (http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/07/politics/cnn-poll-republicans-democrats-taxes/index.html)


Our political elites in both parties are pretty much stinking things up these days. Awful leadership, much more interested in pleasing their donors than in making good policy.

i would add -- pleasing their donors and their bases.

[LA Ute]

i would add -- pleasing their donors and their bases.

Agreed.

[U-Ute]

Virginia and New Jersey vote Democratic govs.

Democrats crushing Republicans in local races.

The Trump effect is killing the GOP

[U-Ute]

Ambassadors are quitting in droves from the Trump administration. Trump don't care.

http://www.newsweek.com/trump-making-us-weaker-says-top-diplomat-record-numbers-quit-705039


When Trump was asked last Thursday by Fox News host Laura Ingraham about the impact of more than 100 senior State Department positions that remain unfilled, he said the positions weren’t needed.
“The one that matters is me,” Trump said (http://www.newsweek.com/laura-ingraham-interview-fox-news-donald-trump-700608). “I'm the only one that matters because when it comes to it, that's what the policy is going to be. You've seen that, you've seen it strongly.”

:moron:

[LA Ute]

Ambassadors are quitting in droves from the Trump administration. Trump don't care.

Maybe all those ambassadors don’t like representing a president who often talks and acts like a third-world dictator.

[LA Ute]

Inside the Podesta Group's last days

What’s weird about this story is that despite its length and detail about the Podesta firm’s sudden demise — including the likelihood that it won’t even meet its next payroll — the piece says hardly anything about the reasons why this is happening. There’s only this paragraph:


The indictment accused Manafort of hiring the Podesta Group — identified as “Company B” — to lobby for an ostensibly independent nonprofit that “was under the ultimate direction” of the Ukrainian president, his party and the Ukrainian government. Neither Podesta nor the Podesta Group has been charged publicly with any crimes.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/10/podesta-group-last-days-244799

[LA Ute]

Can My Children Be Friends With White People?

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/11/11/opinion/sunday/interracial-friendship-donald-trump.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&referer=https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/

I understand and sympathize with this writer’s concerns about the antics and statements of El Jefe Covfefe, but I think he comes to the wrong conclusion. The headline is a bit jarring at first but then again, I guess not for the NY Times.

[Ma'ake]

The UCLA basketball playing shoplifters having achieved "salvation by Trump" has to be one of the funnier episodes this year.

We have Trump playing His Royal Highness, which keeps the SNL writers happy.

LiAngelo Ball's gratitude video will predictably result in thermonuclear anger from the broader UCLA ecosystem and faculty toward Steve Alford, for bringing such monumental shame and humiliation upon John Wooden's legacy by allowing LaVar Ball and his kin into the shrine... in turn laying the foundation for Trump "rescuing" UCLA.

(Projectile vomiting directed toward Steve Alford from many directions).

[concerned]

The whole episode shows what a wily negotiator Trump is. He used his personal relationship with Xi to get this balateral deal done and make America great again. I dont know why so many foreign policy experts say Trump is abdicating America's role in Asia and leaving a leadership void that China is filling. Trump can fleece anybody ant the negotiating table; it is all part of the Art of the Deal. Those who say Trump accomplished nothing on this trip are just plain wrong.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-said-he-would-strike-one-on-one-trade-deals-thats-not-happening/2017/11/14/eced8a4e-c949-11e7-b0cf-7689a9f2d84e_story.html?utm_term=.a19a7606ca06

[Ma'ake]

I don't know what to think about these "Trump approval reaches new lows" articles, but here's another one:

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/360786-poll-trump-job-approval-hits-new-low

Is there a delayed effect in public sentiment? (I used to be quite a political junkie, but in 2017 it's a highly toxic hobby, not good for the soul.)

[Ma'ake]

No idea who the "Cook Report" is, but they predict a Democratic Wave in 2018.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/360860-cook-political-report-predicts-democratic-wave-in-2018-midterms

Elizabeth Warren made a salient point - there's no leadership in the Democratic Party right now, and that's probably OK. It's a grassroots reactive movement.

I have a theory that we're in a longer period of increasingly sizable oscillations in political power, as economic turbulence causes much of the electoral to be very angry, frustrated and ready to pull the trigger for big change, in every cycle.

Republicans are the Party of Trump, and have completely forgotten a hot button issue from just last year - deficits / debt. The less Democrats talk (right now), the more (temporary) power they accumulate.

[LA Ute]

No idea who the "Cook Report" is, but they predict a Democratic Wave in 2018.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/360860-cook-political-report-predicts-democratic-wave-in-2018-midterms

Elizabeth Warren made a salient point - there's no leadership in the Democratic Party right now, and that's probably OK. It's a grassroots reactive movement.

I have a theory that we're in a longer period of increasingly sizable oscillations in political power, as economic turbulence causes much of the electoral to be very angry, frustrated and ready to pull the trigger for big change, in every cycle.

Republicans are the Party of Trump, and have completely forgotten a hot button issue from just last year - deficits / debt. The less Democrats talk (right now), the more (temporary) power they accumulate.

Every off-year election during a president's first term goes this way (only recent exception is 2002 because of 9/11). Obama managed to get creamed in both of his off-year elections, to historic proportions. I would not be surprised to see Trump get clobbered even worse than Obama did.

[Dwight Schr-Ute]

I considered changing the banner on the UteNation FB page to this and log off for the weekend. But I’m not one that enjoys watching the world burn. Too much.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171117/5481aacd337b238d7be96f96b1da4a11.jpg


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[Applejack]

The commander-in-chief loved last night's trouncing of Mizzou!

[U-Ute]

GOP tax plan:

- Adding deductions for those who can buy or lease private jets
- Removing deductions for those with student debt.

Good god.

[Ma'ake]

GOP tax plan:

- Adding deductions for those who can buy or lease private jets
- Removing deductions for those with student debt.

Good god.

One of my colleagues told me the student loan deduction going "poof" is perceived to be anti-education in general, and biased against Asian-Americans, in particular (since they disproportionately rack up a lot of debt pursuing advanced degrees).

Republicans-of-old (ie, last year's model) were of the "invest in yourself and your skill sets!" mindset, but the new Trump Republicans are probably aiming at higher education in general, as some large percentage of them view a college education with contempt.

The Biz Jet deduction? LOL - that's just more of this:
2293

[USS Utah]

Others Being Blamed: What Trump and FDR have in Common

https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/flattopshistorywarpolitics/viewtopic.php?f=66&t=3815

[LA Ute]

Pretty good piece:

Donald Trump and his critics have shown an amazing lack of grace

http://www.ocregister.com/2017/11/25/donald-trump-and-his-critics-have-shown-an-amazing-lack-of-grace/

[U-Ute]

Pretty good piece:

Donald Trump and his critics have shown an amazing lack of grace

http://www.ocregister.com/2017/11/25/donald-trump-and-his-critics-have-shown-an-amazing-lack-of-grace/

That is the primary problem with bullying is that is the only language spoken by bullies.

Eg: “You have to punch a bully in the nose.”

It becomes a race to the bottom when your President is the bully.


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[LA Ute]

Maureen Dowd. I continue to find stuff like this fascinating.

My Brother Kevin’s Not Tired of Winning

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/11/23/opinion/sunday/my-brother-kevins-not-tired-of-winning.html?referer=https://t.co/5HkoXW80a4

[U-Ute]

From the article:


Trump’s minor battles: The N.F.L. players were disrespecting the American flag and were not called out by their gutless commissioner in a timely fashion.

I was listening to a national radio sports talk show, and they were discussing why we are seeing issues in the NFL and not in the other professional leagues. They had an ex-athlete (I forget who or which sport he was from) and he had a curious explanation that makes some sense.

When you look at the relationship between the owners and players in the NFL, it is definitely a more adversarial relationship. The Player's Union and the owners are not on particularly equal or friendly terms. He pointed to the recent quote by the Texan's owner equating the players to "prisoners" with the "prisoners running the jailhouse" comment. He didn't think that the owner meant it literally, but it highlighted the attitude that owners do have about the players and how poisoned the relationship is.

On the other side of the coin is the NBA. The players have a much more symbiotic relationship with the owners and the league than the NFL. Consequently, they're less likely to want to rock the boat with regards to the national anthem.

I found it a fascinating insight.

[Diehard Ute]

From the article:



I was listening to a national radio sports talk show, and they were discussing why we are seeing issues in the NFL and not in the other professional leagues. They had an ex-athlete (I forget who or which sport he was from) and he had a curious explanation that makes some sense.

When you look at the relationship between the owners and players in the NFL, it is definitely a more adversarial relationship. The Player's Union and the owners are not on particularly equal or friendly terms. He pointed to the recent quote by the Texan's owner equating the players to "prisoners" with the "prisoners running the jailhouse" comment. He didn't think that the owner meant it literally, but it highlighted the attitude that owners do have about the players and how poisoned the relationship is.

On the other side of the coin is the NBA. The players have a much more symbiotic relationship with the owners and the league than the NFL. Consequently, they're less likely to want to rock the boat with regards to the national anthem.

I found it a fascinating insight.

The NFL’s contracts are basically geared to allow the team an out, rarely are their contracts guaranteed and even when they are only a portion is.

Contrast this to the NBA where almost all contracts are guaranteed. (MLB and NHL are all guaranteed save buyout clauses)

That certainly plays a role.


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[LA Ute]

The NFL’s contracts are basically geared to allow the team an out, rarely are their contracts guaranteed and even when they are only a portion is.

Contrast this to the NBA where almost all contracts are guaranteed. (MLB and NHL are all guaranteed save buyout clauses)

That certainly plays a role.


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Does anyone else see the NFL as today’s version of Rome’s gladiators? Seems that way to me, much more than MLB or the NBA.


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[U-Ute]

Does anyone else see the NFL as today’s version of Rome’s gladiators? Seems that way to me, much more than MLB or the NBA.


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I've said the exact same thing.

But mostly in the context of it being a huge distraction for the common folk while those in charge steal and cheat everything.

[LA Ute]

Must-Reads for 2017: Mysteries of the White Working Class

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-11-30/must-reads-for-2017-mysteries-of-the-white-working-class

Megan McArdle again.


Nov. 8, 2016, left a lot of people standing around with dumb looks on their faces. Including me. (Okay, I was sitting on my sofa when I realized that Donald Trump was going to win. But the dumb look was definitely there.) In the wake of his election, a lot of folks in the Acela Corridor have become interested in exploring the sociology and history of that exotic creature, the White Working-Class Male.

How did this person come to vote for a guy who was born with a silver spoon in his mouth, and managed -- by dint of cheating his tradesmen, playing on his father’s political connections and strategically declaring bankruptcy -- to turn it into a gold one? Was their support all about racism? Sexism? Anger toward the elites? Or something else?

Any number of books have been put forward to explain what’s going on in the heads of people who don’t even like arugula. Many of them have useful things to say. But there are three, in particular, that I have found helpful in thinking about what has happened to the white working class over the last 40 years, and how that led them to vote for Donald Trump last fall....

[U-Ute]

Flynn to plead guilty for lying to the FBI about his contact with Russian ambassador.

This article points out how this sets up some interesting questions about what Flynn lied about. It points out that the things he lied about are pretty innocous, so that begs the question: why lie about them?

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-01/how-the-flynn-charges-box-in-trump

Possibly because of this:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/michael-flynn-to-testify-that-trump-asked-him-to-make-contact-with-russians-report/article/2642282

[Rocker Ute]

That’s what makes sense. Why lie about contact if it isn’t to protect the guy you are working for. If the ABC report is true that is pretty damning for Trump.


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[LA Ute]

Flynn to plead guilty for lying to the FBI about his contact with Russian ambassador.

This article points out how this sets up some interesting questions about what Flynn lied about. It points out that the things he lied about are pretty innocous, so that begs the question: why lie about them?

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-01/how-the-flynn-charges-box-in-trump

Possibly because of this:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/michael-flynn-to-testify-that-trump-asked-him-to-make-contact-with-russians-report/article/2642282

It’s going to be fascinating to watch. Several possibilities:

1. He’s another Scooter Libby and the prosecutors are just going to move on now. I doubt this is the case. It would mean they couldn’t get a conviction on the crime they were out to prosecute, but they caught him in a lie during their interviews with him and got him for that. This happens all the time. People are stupid and don’t want to admit to anything embarrassing, so they tell white lies or shade the truth, and it comes back to bite them big-time. Here, I think Flynn had counsel throughout the process so maybe that’s not what happened here. (He may have tried to talk to the FBI alone, early on, thinking he could make this go away. Common error.)

2. He is making a deal with the prosecutors in exchange for his testimony against another subject or target of the investigation. This is also very common — a standard approach by the feds to such matters. It’s also the one that has Democrats hyperventilating.

3. The news report you link to makes it clear that someone with an agenda is leaking information. It’s probably not Fynn’s people because he looks like a snitch and I doubt he wants that. I guess some of the prosecutors just couldn’t contain themselves. If so, I have no respect for them. Lawyers have to keep secrets.

I can see it now. Trump is impeached or resigns, Pence pardons him, and Joe Biden is elected in 2020, despite millions of YouTube views of him being all over that woman who was the wife of an Obama appointee. Biden runs with Al Franken, who by then has converted to Christianity and has represented and been absolved by the Rev. Wright, Obama’s jettisoned pastor. The country moves forward.

[Scorcho]

The Onion‏Verified account @TheOnion (https://twitter.com/TheOnion) 20m20 minutes ago (https://twitter.com/TheOnion/status/936642821142040576)More



White House Begins Christmas Season With Ceremonial Lighting Of Cross https://trib.al/oyqFICe (https://t.co/smXH4OXD3P)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DP-frkPU8AAUJ8O.jpg




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:rofl:

[Ma'ake]

I can see it now. Trump is impeached or resigns, Pence pardons him, and Joe Biden is elected in 2020, despite millions of YouTube views of him being all over that woman who was the wife of an Obama appointee. Biden runs with Al Franken, who by then has converted to Christianity and has represented and been absolved by the Rev. Wright, Obama’s jettisoned pastor. The country moves forward.

When in Rome? ;)

Seriously, I think the demographics on the left are more complex. There are plenty of Dems who are genuinely religious, but they don't wear it on their sleeve so much. And the quickest growing religious group in America, the "Nones", would see Franken becoming religious as a sign of weakness (at best) or cynical pandering.

It may be getting closer to the time for Mueller to have a fatal, untraceable heart attack and die. I really, really, really hope not, but that would resolve Trump's biggest threat: "Russia, Russia, Russia".

We haven't gone there yet in American politics, but... I wouldn't be shocked if we did.

[U-Ute]

When in Rome? ;)

Seriously, I think the demographics on the left are more complex. There are plenty of Dems who are genuinely religious, but they don't wear it on their sleeve so much. And the quickest growing religious group in America, the "Nones", would see Franken becoming religious as a sign of weakness (at best) or cynical pandering.

It may be getting closer to the time for Mueller to have a fatal, untraceable heart attack and die. I really, really, really hope not, but that would resolve Trump's biggest threat: "Russia, Russia, Russia".

We haven't gone there yet in American politics, but... I wouldn't be shocked if we did.

The one thing that has kept me from freaking out about all things Trump is the fact that he isn't a psychopath on the level of Putin or Kim Jong Un.

If that changes, we're in deep doo-doo

[Rocker Ute]

The one thing that has kept me from freaking out about all things Trump is the fact that he isn't a psychopath on the level of Putin or Kim Jong Un.

If that changes, we're in deep doo-doo

The problems with psychopaths is most of the time you don't really know they are until the murderous rampage.

[LA Ute]

The problems with psychopaths is most of the time you don't really know they are until the murderous rampage.

That’s what I keep telling my co-workers about myself. I’m just not sure when it might happen, so I want them to be careful.

[LA Ute]

Interesting and balanced analysis of the Flynn plea here:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/454264/michael-flynn-charge-monstrous-injustice-or-prelude-bigger-things

[Diehard Ute]

Interesting and balanced analysis of the Flynn plea here:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/454264/michael-flynn-charge-monstrous-injustice-or-prelude-bigger-things

NBC is reporting the “senior” member of the Trump transition team is Jared Kushner.


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[Diehard Ute]

For some comic relief....

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171201/0e1dd82b27048237bff5dec0f8f08a62.jpg


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[LA Ute]

:snack:

[Scorcho]

I love twitter


https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/925105891044745216/qZVnNnWB_normal.jpgJames Comey
✔@Comey (https://twitter.com/Comey)


“But justice roll down like waters and righteousness like an ever-flowing stream” Amos 5:24 https://www.instagram.com/p/BcKtEUUg4Qa/ (https://t.co/o89PSY1YBd)
10:01 AM - Dec 1, 2017 (https://twitter.com/Comey/status/936641449294286848)




8,5178,517 Replies (https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?in_reply_to=936641449294286848)

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[Ma'ake]

The one thing that has kept me from freaking out about all things Trump is the fact that he isn't a psychopath on the level of Putin or Kim Jong Un.

If that changes, we're in deep doo-doo

I don't think Trump is a full blown psychopath, but his nailing the NPD diagnosis is pretty clear.

Here's a hypothetical question - if the Russia thing ends up taking Trump down, how much of his antics in office to this point were all a big diversion?

[sancho]

how much of his antics in office to this point were all a big diversion?

None. That's just who he is.

[USS Utah]

That’s what makes sense. Why lie about contact if it isn’t to protect the guy you are working for. If the ABC report is true that is pretty damning for Trump.


LA Ute:
He’s another Scooter Libby

Libby was convicted for lying about something that turned out not to be illegal -- since Plame was an analyst instead of a field agent, outing her was not a crime. Additionally, how this "outing" was supposed to discredit her husband remains a mystery . . . at least to me.

Libby would seem to fit in well in the Trump W.H.

[LA Ute]

[COLOR=#333333]LA Ute:

Libby was convicted for lying about something that turned out not to be illegal -- since Plame was an analyst instead of a field agent, outing her was not a crime. Additionally, how this "outing" was supposed to discredit her husband remains a mystery . . . at least to me.

Libby would seem to fit in well in the Trump W.H.

Not exactly, but close. Libby was not convicted of anything related to the Valerie Plame affair, but for lying about other matters to the investigators who interviewed him. As I said, that’s how prosecutors get a lot of people. But Libby had nothing to do with what happened with Plame. The guy who actually outed her as a CIA operative was Richard Armitage. Nothing ever happened to Armitage, probably because the prosecutors were already embarrassed enough about how much time and money they’d spent on a nothingburger, and the whole matter had pretty much run its course. The whole thing was a political prosecution in the purest sense.


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[Ma'ake]

Even after becoming a Christian AND successfully prosecuting the War on Christmas, I don't think Donald is going to extend a Christmas party invitation to Joe Scarborough, this year: http://thehill.com/homenews/media/362513-scarborough-trump-allies-told-me-he-has-dementia

[LA Ute]

Disclaimer: You All know I can’t stand Trump, and that I also think the Russian collusion narrative may turn out to be the most cynical ploy in the history of American politics. Now this from Andrew McCarthy, a former DOJ prosecutor:


Mueller’s investigation was not a criminal investigation. It started out as a fishing expedition, under the vaporous heading of “collusion,” into “contacts” between Russian officials and Trump associates — notwithstanding that collusion is not conspiracy and that it was perfectly legal for Trump associates to have contacts with Russia (just like Clinton associates did)…

Only one conceivable crime could have arisen out of the “collusion” that was the pretext for Mueller’s probe: the knowing complicity of Trump associates in Russia’s hacking of Democratic email accounts. Of course, there was never evidence of such a scheme…

…And in the event our aggressive prosecutor can’t find any crimes — which would be no surprise, since the investigation was not triggered by a crime — no matter: The special counsel is encouraged to manufacture crimes through the investigative process. Misleading assertions by non-suspects made to investigators probing non-crimes can be charged as felony false statements.

The end game of the investigation is the removal of Donald Trump from the presidency, either by impeachment (which does not require proof of a court-prosecutable crime) or by publicly discrediting Trump to such a degree that his reelection becomes politically impossible. The latter can be accomplished by projecting the appearance of a critical investigation (notwithstanding that there is no underlying crime), turning administration officials into suspects, and hopefully generating the false-statement prosecutions that help depict the administration as dishonest and icky.

While all that plays out, though, behold the frightening thing Mueller’s investigation has become: a criminalization of politics. In the new order of things, policy differences are the grist for investigation and prosecution. There is no evidence that Flynn or any other Trump associate was involved in Russia’s election interference. Instead, after being elected on the promise of significant policy shifts from the Obama administration, President-elect Trump directed Flynn, his incoming national-security adviser, to make contact with foreign counterparts, including but not limited to officials from Russia. This is standard operating procedure when administrations change — that’s why they call it a transition....

The ongoing Mueller probe is not a good-faith investigation of suspected espionage or other crime. It is the exploitation of the executive’s intelligence-gathering and law-enforcement powers in order to (a) criminalize Trump political policies with which the Obama administration disagreed and (b) frame Clinton’s electoral defeat as the product of a traitorous scheme rather than a rejection of Democratic-party priorities.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/454293/robert-mueller-trump-russia-investigation-michael-flynn-obama-administration-foreign-policy-israel

I don’t like this, and my Democratic friends here won’t like it when it’s done to their side. It’s a horrible precedent.

[Ma'ake]

Disclaimer: You All know I can’t stand Trump, and that I also think the Russian collusion narrative may turn out to be the most cynical ploy in the history of American politics. Now this from Andrew McCarthy, a former DOJ prosecutor.

I don’t like this, and my Democratic friends here won’t like it when it’s done to their side. It’s a horrible precedent.

Were those Michelins or Goodyear tracks on Mueller? Remember when he wasn't thought to be a toady of Hillary?

I see lots and lots of "I've seen nothing of substance, so this is all a fishing expedition" responses from the right. When was the full release of all the evidence? (And why would the Treasury Department be involved in evidence collection, just prior to Inauguration Day?) It could all be an amazingly orchestrated conspiracy by lots of public servants... or... maybe there's more to come.

Very interesting that Trump's lawyer today admitted he wrote Trump's tweet yesterday about Flynn being fired because he lied to the FBI (as opposed to being fired for lying to Pence, Trump's previous narrative). The lawyer must have been watching Joy Reid of MSNBC, who explained the obstruction of justice case being assembled, ironically, by Trump himself.

[Ma'ake]

Tweetstorm underway!

Trump: "I never asked Comey to stop investigating Flynn!"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/12/03/in-pre-dawn-twitter-message-trump-issues-a-fresh-denial-about-intervening-in-flynn-investigation/?utm_term=.bb873c142614

"
Are you ADMITTING you knew Flynn had lied to the FBI when you asked Comey to back off Flynn?” Walter Shaub, the former head of the U.S. Office of Government Ethics, asked in a tweet Saturday afternoon.

[LA Ute]

Tweetstorm underway!

Trump: "I never asked Comey to stop investigating Flynn!"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/12/03/in-pre-dawn-twitter-message-trump-issues-a-fresh-denial-about-intervening-in-flynn-investigation/?utm_term=.bb873c142614

"
Are you ADMITTING you knew Flynn had lied to the FBI when you asked Comey to back off Flynn?” Walter Shaub, the former head of the U.S. Office of Government Ethics, asked in a tweet Saturday afternoon.

Trump has no idea how to be president.

[LA Ute]

Alan Dershowitz:


The first question is, why did Flynn lie? People who lie to the FBI generally do so because, if they told the truth, they would be admitting to a crime. But the two conversations that Flynn falsely denied having were not criminal. He may have believed they were criminal but, if he did, he was wrong....

The second question is why did Mueller charge Flynn only with lying? The last thing a prosecutor ever wants to do is to charge a key witness with lying.

A witness such as Flynn who has admitted he lied — whether or not to cover up a crime — is a tainted witness who is unlikely to be believed by jurors who know he’s made a deal to protect himself and his son. They will suspect that he is not only “singing for his supper” but that he may be “composing” as well — that is, telling the prosecutor what he wants to hear, even if it is exaggerated or flat-out false. A “bought” witness knows that the “better” his testimony, the sweeter the deal he will get. That’s why prosecutors postpone the sentencing until after the witness has testified, because experience has taught them that you can’t “buy” a witness; you can only “rent “ them for as long as you have the sword of Damocles hanging over them.

Read the whole thing.

http://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/362948-why-did-flynn-lie-and-why-did-mueller-charge-him-with-lying

[Ma'ake]

Alan Dershowitz:


I read the whole thing, but my bullshit detector got set off on this mangled claim:


Many Americans of both parties, including me, urged the lame-duck Obama not to tie the hands of the president-elect by allowing the passage of a resolution that would make it more difficult to achieve a negotiated peace in the Middle East. - Dershowitz


(So... presumably Obama did this only because he dislikes Netanyahu, or because he really is a Muslim, after all. There's no other reason to apply pressure to Israel? The rest of the world are Jew-hating Nazis? This blithe assumption/dismissal of a complex topic aside...)

As for Mueller ostensibly botching the whole investigation because he undermined Flynn as a witness by getting him to admit to lying - is this a Law and Order episode? - Dershowitz seems like he's focused on details and is missing large parts of the bigger picture. Absent access to whatever other evidence Mueller is uncovering, the obvious thrust at the moment seems to be obstruction of justice. But Dershowitz is preoccupied with the Logan Act?


It feels like he's doing an audition for Fox News, or to be Hannity's and Limbaugh's legal guest. (For all I know, this is already the case. lol)

[Ma'ake]

Watching a panel on Fox News:

"If Mike Flynn did nothing wrong, why did he lie to the FBI, or at least admit to lying, even if he didn't?"

- Panelist: "I think he ran out of money. He's been in the military his whole career, and it's really unfortunate, but he just ran out of money to defend himself."

Wow. (I'm not making this up, this is what some "expert" on FN said.) This narrative is getting just flat out crazy.

How will this storyline evolve moving forward?

"Jared was under a lot of pressure. He knew it was up to him to achieve peace in the Middle East, Obama the Kenyan Muslim was trying to make his job tougher, he may have had advance notice about the Neo Nazis coming to Charlottesville, and... well, he panicked, and that he made a fortune on Russian business ties is really not at all part of this tragedy".

[LA Ute]

Watching a panel on Fox News:

"If Mike Flynn did nothing wrong, why did he lie to the FBI, or at least admit to lying, even if he didn't?"

- Panelist: "I think he ran out of money. He's been in the military his whole career, and it's really unfortunate, but he just ran out of money to defend himself."

Wow. (I'm not making this up, this is what some "expert" on FN said.) This narrative is getting just flat out crazy.

How will this storyline evolve moving forward?

"Jared was under a lot of pressure. He knew it was up to him to achieve peace in the Middle East, Obama the Kenyan Muslim was trying to make his job tougher, he may have had advance notice about the Neo Nazis coming to Charlottesville, and... well, he panicked, and that he made a fortune on Russian business ties is really not at all part of this tragedy".

It’s a mistake to watch any of those panels. The members are actually assigned the positions they must take. (At least that’s how CNN does it but I’m sure Fox News isn’t much different.)

[UtahsMrSports]

Trump will be here in SLC today for a quick meeting with LDS leaders, a tour of Welfare Square, and an announcement about bears ears.

As a practicing Mormon and staunch anti trump voter, there is a small part of me that is hoping one of the LDS apostles will chastise Trump on his twitter behavior. I then hope that Trump will take to twitter to call the LDS church 'fake news!'. It won't happen, obviously. But think about it.....if it did, would ANYONE be shocked? Thats the world we live in....

And can you imagine the meltdown of the folks who are so deeply devoted to the LDS church and the Republican party that they think of the two as one in the same? Their minds would be going crazy!

[mUUser]

Trump has no idea how to be president.


He is not a good person and a bad president.
Obama was a good person and a bad president.
Bush was a good person and a bad president.
Clinton was a bad person and a good president.
41 was a good person and a bad president.
Reagan was a good person and a good president.

The Repubs bookend the two extremes.

[LA Ute]

He is not a good person and a bad president.
Obama was a good person and a bad president.
Bush was a good person and a bad president.
Clinton was a bad person and a good president.
41 was a good person and a bad president.
Reagan was a good person and a good president.

The Repubs bookend the two extremes.

Sad but true.

[Sullyute]

I actually thought 41 was a good President.


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[LA Ute]

I actually thought 41 was a good President.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Yeah, I do too. He ran the Gulf War brilliantly. He was practically made for that conflict. But the economy went bad on him and he got caught in its wake.

[USS Utah]

Yeah, I do too. He ran the Gulf War brilliantly. He was practically made for that conflict. But the economy went bad on him and he got caught in its wake.

He is the last president I really respected. His number one mistake was the no new taxes pledge. While the economy went into recession, it was the least bad recession we have had in 40 years.

[Ma'ake]

It’s a mistake to watch any of those panels. The members are actually assigned the positions they must take. (At least that’s how CNN does it but I’m sure Fox News isn’t much different.)

I get that. It's like sport broadcasters figuring out who's going to take which position in a discussion beforehand.

But is Fox *that* bereft of plausible explanations? Geez, I could do better than that!

[LA Ute]

Mueller’s Credibility Problem


Donald Trump is his own worst enemy, as his many ill-advised tweets on the weekend about Michael Flynn, the FBI and Robert Mueller’s Russia probe demonstrate. But that doesn’t mean that Mr. Mueller and the Federal Bureau of Investigation deserve a pass about their motives and methods, as new information raises troubling questions.

The Washington Post and the New York Times reported Saturday that a lead FBI investigator on the Mueller probe, Peter Strzok, was demoted this summer after it was discovered he’d sent anti- Trump texts to a mistress. As troubling, Mr. Mueller and the Justice Department kept this information from House investigators, despite Intelligence Committee subpoenas that would have exposed those texts. They also refused to answer questions about Mr. Strzok’s dismissal and refused to make him available for an interview.

The news about Mr. Strzok leaked only when the Justice Department concluded it couldn’t hold out any longer, and the stories were full of spin that praised Mr. Mueller for acting “swiftly” to remove the agent. Only after these stories ran did Justice agree on Saturday to make Mr. Strzok available to the House.

This is all the more notable because Mr. Strzok was a chief lieutenant to former FBI Director James Comey and played a lead role investigating alleged coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia during the 2016 election. Mr. Mueller then gave him a top role in his special-counsel probe. And before all this Mr. Strzok led the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails and sat in on the interview she gave to the FBI shortly before Mr. Comey publicly exonerated her in violation of Justice Department practice.

Oh, and the woman with whom he supposedly exchanged anti-Trump texts, FBI lawyer Lisa Page, worked for both Mr. Mueller and deputy FBI director Andrew McCabe, who was accused of a conflict of interest in the Clinton probe when it came out that Clinton allies had donated to the political campaign of Mr. McCabe’s wife. The texts haven’t been publicly released, but it’s fair to assume their anti-Trump bias must be clear for Mr. Mueller to reassign such a senior agent.

There is no justification for withholding all of this from Congress, which is also investigating Russian influence and has constitutional oversight authority. Justice and the FBI have continued to defy legal subpoenas for documents pertaining to both surveillance warrants and the infamous Steele dossier that was financed by the Clinton campaign and relied on anonymous Russian sources.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/muellers-credibility-problem-1512432318

[U-Ute]

How do the lawyers on the board feel about the argument of "Technically, the President can't obstruct justice"?

[LA Ute]

How do the lawyers on the board feel about the argument of "Technically, the President can't obstruct justice"?

Technical arguments only get you so far.

2299

Politico gathered a bunch of legal experts to comment on the proposition that the President can't obstruct justice:

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/12/04/can-the-president-obstruct-justice-216008

[UTEopia]

This could be interesting: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-deutsche-bank-records-said-to-be-subpoenaed-by-mueller/ar-BBGffyx

[UTEopia]

Technical arguments only get you so far.

2299

Politico gathered a bunch of legal experts to comment on the proposition that the President can't obstruct justice:

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/12/04/can-the-president-obstruct-justice-216008

That's bs. He is sworn to uphold the Constitution. IMO, that includes promoting and not obstructing justice.

On a side note, I am currently watching the Ken Burns series on the Viet Nam War. I just finished the part where LBJ discovered through a tap on the South Viet Nam President's phone that prior to the 1968 election, someone on Nixon's team contacted them and told them to refuse to attend peace talks until after the election because it would help Nixon get elected. If Nixon were elected, he would give them greater protection than Humphrey. The documentary then plays a tape of Dick calling Lyndon to tell him that the rumors Lyndon was hearing about Dick's team having done that were false, that he would never do something like that. LBJ couldn't call Nixon out publicly, because it would disclose his use of taps on the South Vietnamese government. If you have not watched that series, you should.

As someone born in 1956, I spent my years through high school (1975 Skyline grad) in SLC largely oblivious and unaffected by the war or the war protests. I remember when I was 9 or so a boy in our Sugarhouse neighborhood being arrested for burning his draft card and his family being ostracized because of it. I vaguely remember new reports on the television with the numbers of US and enemy killed that day, week or month. I remember stories of dirty hippies protesting the war. I remember signing my draft registration when I turned 18 in 1974. That was about it. Watching this series I have gratitude that I wasn't born in 1950. I am impressed by those who chose to fight the war, particularly those who were drafted and went against their will. They were screwed. I understand those who obtained and used deferments to avoid service. Had it been necessary, I probably would have used one. I abhor the existence of such deferments and believe the war would have been much shorter without them. I am also impressed by those who actively opposed the war when it became increasingly clear that the Johnson and Nixon administrations were lying through their teeth. From a religious perspective, I wonder about the eternal consequences to those making the decisions to send boys to their deaths and thereby causing the deaths of truly innocents when they knew the war was not winnable and the cause unjustifiable. I don't wonder about the soldier on the ground who killed, even when he killed the innocent in the normal course of events. I wonder about those in suits and ties who lied about the conduct of the war.

[Dwight Schr-Ute]

That's bs. He is sworn to uphold the Constitution. IMO, that includes promoting and not obstructing justice.

On a side note, I am currently watching the Ken Burns series on the Viet Nam War. I just finished the part where LBJ discovered through a tap on the South Viet Nam President's phone that prior to the 1968 election, someone on Nixon's team contacted them and told them to refuse to attend peace talks until after the election because it would help Nixon get elected. If Nixon were elected, he would give them greater protection than Humphrey. The documentary then plays a tape of Dick calling Lyndon to tell him that the rumors Lyndon was hearing about Dick's team having done that were false, that he would never do something like that. LBJ couldn't call Nixon out publicly, because it would disclose his use of taps on the South Vietnamese government. If you have not watched that series, you should.

As someone born in 1956, I spent my years through high school (1975 Skyline grad) in SLC largely oblivious and unaffected by the war or the war protests. I remember when I was 9 or so a boy in our Sugarhouse neighborhood being arrested for burning his draft card and his family being ostracized because of it. I vaguely remember new reports on the television with the numbers of US and enemy killed that day, week or month. I remember stories of dirty hippies protesting the war. I remember signing my draft registration when I turned 18 in 1974. That was about it. Watching this series I have gratitude that I wasn't born in 1950. I am impressed by those who chose to fight the war, particularly those who were drafted and went against their will. They were screwed. I understand those who obtained and used deferments to avoid service. Had it been necessary, I probably would have used one. I abhor the existence of such deferments and believe the war would have been much shorter without them. I am also impressed by those who actively opposed the war when it became increasingly clear that the Johnson and Nixon administrations were lying through their teeth. From a religious perspective, I wonder about the eternal consequences to those making the decisions to send boys to their deaths and thereby causing the deaths of truly innocents when they knew the war was not winnable and the cause unjustifiable. I don't wonder about the soldier on the ground who killed, even when he killed the innocent in the normal course of events. I wonder about those in suits and ties who lied about the conduct of the war.


https://youtu.be/deU_uwlNpOo

[Applejack]

Politico gathered a bunch of legal experts to comment on the proposition that the President can't obstruct justice:

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/12/04/can-the-president-obstruct-justice-216008

TL;DR: Yes, the prez can obstruct justice.

[LA Ute]

My question is, Why would any POTUS want to do anything that even looks like obstructing justice? It's idiotic.

[Diehard Ute]

My question is, Why would any POTUS want to do anything that even looks like obstructing justice? It's idiotic.

Because powerful people don’t think rationally. They often get wrapped up in the idea they can do anything as they’re too powerful for anyone to say no.

Trump is a unique case because he’s believed that for years...adding the title of President merely was the feather in his cap.


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[Dwight Schr-Ute]

LOL. Both for the fact that it's Flake making some PR out of this and that it's only $100.

938160754490052609

[Ma'ake]

Because powerful people don’t think rationally. They often get wrapped up in the idea they can do anything as they’re too powerful for anyone to say no.

Trump is a unique case because he’s believed that for years...adding the title of President merely was the feather in his cap.

Nailed it. Trump has been in a cocoon without accountability for decades. I thought it was funny/scary that Hope Hicks described Trump as a "father figure". (Did she actually have a father, or was her own father some kind of borderline personality madman that Trump reminds her of?)

[LA Ute]

This is about the Kate Steinle murder/manslaughter case in San Francisco:


Kate Steinle’s killer is not the poster child for illegal immigration, despite Mr. Trump’s efforts to turn him into one. The research consistently has shown that immigrants here both legally and illegally are less likely than their native counterparts to be arrested and imprisoned. And that holds true whether the immigrant hails from Japan, India or Ecuador. America’s violent-crime rates are driven mostly by Americans. But neither is every immigrant a blameless Dreamer, and too often immigration activists and liberal politicians are as unwilling as the president to make a distinction.

Sorry, I think the entire piece is behind the paywall:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/san-francisco-wasnt-a-sanctuary-for-kate-steinle-1512519875?mod=cx_picks&cx_navSource=cx_picks&cx_tag=contextual&cx_artPos=1#cxrecs_s

I guess the jury bought the defendant’s story that he found the gun under a bench and it went off accidentally. I can’t shake the feeling that what really went on here was jury nullification, a jury taking a shot at Trump. Trump owns some of this result due to his making a campaign issue of a pending criminal case. Not our justice system’s finest hour.

[Ma'ake]

I wonder how many Trumpista Utahns who were feeling so victorious at Trump slashing Bears Ears & GSE on Monday will make the connection at how Trump's political soulmate Bannon so viciously ripped apart Romney in Alabama last night, even taking a swipe at his missionary service and his whole family (while ignoring Trump's own 5 deferments to avoid Vietnam).

(Romney is the last high-profile Republican who has the audacity to speak out against Trump, therefore he needed to be torn apart.)

A big question is what exactly happens to the Republican party in the next couple of years. Does it become more explicitly a white Christian nationalist party? Or will the Mueller investigation and a possible loss of the House and/or Senate next year signal a turn back toward a more conventional conservative American party?

Ordinarily, I would cheer for a return of Democratic power, but I don't think rational Republicans are going to be able to put the cat back in the bag this time, and the resulting chasm will make the Cougar Ute Forum breakup look like a squabble at cub scout camp.

[Diehard Ute]

This is about the Kate Steinle murder/manslaughter case in San Francisco:



Sorry, I think the entire piece is behind the paywall:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/san-francisco-wasnt-a-sanctuary-for-kate-steinle-1512519875?mod=cx_picks&cx_navSource=cx_picks&cx_tag=contextual&cx_artPos=1#cxrecs_s

I guess the jury bought the defendant’s story that he found the gun under a bench and it went off accidentally. I can’t shake the feeling that what really went on here was jury nullification, a jury taking a shot at Trump. Trump owns some of this result due to his making a campaign issue of a pending criminal case. Not our justice system’s finest hour.

Newsflash. Juries often come up with crazy verdicts.

Did you notice most of the accused officers in Baltimore chose bench trials? In law enforcement there’s often a belief that guilty people love juries, innocent people prefer a judge.

I’ve seen all kinds of completely crazy jury verdicts. I also know I’ve yet to see a single police officer be empaneled for a jury...although a sitting judge recently made it on a jury in Utah.



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[Ma'ake]

Pre-emptive moves to protect against Trump bouncing Mueller: https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/05/trump-mueller-democrats-congress-281810

It's encouraging that some Republican Senators at least see the risk in Mueller getting canned, but how they'll vote is another question. Another question is will it matter, if Trump jumps headlong into a constitutional crisis, anyway. "The President cannot obstruct justice". That was a planted seed to not just defend him, but build to support for eliminating Mueller.

Another move that is seriously troubling is Pompeo assembling a privatized international spy ring to counter the "Deep State" CIA folks whom he doesn't trust. I would expect further moves in this direction, deliberate moves to negate / counter our intelligence services. (A whole lot of the Russian intel apparatus are not employees of the FSB, but rather loosely connected actors who do the bidding of Putin, such as the various "incidents" that help opposition to Putin in Russia be dramatically muted.)

[UTEopia]

What does Trump gain by recognizing Jerusalem as the Capital of Israel? What doe the US gain by Trump doing this? I can't see any upside in this. It appears to be just another effort to created chaos and inflame hatred and passions. Anyone planning to travel in the middle east in the next 6 months should carefully reconsider those plans.

[Rocker Ute]

What does Trump gain by recognizing Jerusalem as the Capital of Israel? What doe the US gain by Trump doing this? I can't see any upside in this. It appears to be just another effort to created chaos and inflame hatred and passions. Anyone planning to travel in the middle east in the next 6 months should carefully reconsider those plans.

I said on UF.N that I think this is Trump flipping off Muslims. As I understand it though, in 1995 Congress and Clinton signed into law that the embassy should be in Jerusalem and they even have a plot of land that remains vacant for it. However every 6 months since then the president has issued a stay (? can't remember if that is the term) basically holding that off for another 6 months and that has happened for the past 21 years. If people are asking why and why now, I would refer to my first statement and the now is probably because it is time to sign that stay and it came across his desk and got his attention.

I'm not seeing any experts who think this is a good idea.

[UTEopia]

I said on UF.N that I think this is Trump flipping off Muslims. As I understand it though, in 1995 Congress and Clinton signed into law that the embassy should be in Jerusalem and they even have a plot of land that remains vacant for it. However every 6 months since then the president has issued a stay (? can't remember if that is the term) basically holding that off for another 6 months and that has happened for the past 21 years. If people are asking why and why now, I would refer to my first statement and the now is probably because it is time to sign that stay and it came across his desk and got his attention.

I'm not seeing any experts who think this is a good idea.

From everything I have read, he plans to make the announcement and sign the stay. Crazy.

[concerned]

I read somewhere that this has to do with Roy Moore & Trump's base--the evangelicals have long wanted the embassy in J., and this is to fulfill a campaign promise at a propitious time domestically.

follow-up: I just read that the evangelicals want the move because it will help advance the apocalypse and the second coming. maybe it fulfills a prophecy in their minds. FWIW.

[LA Ute]

Newsflash. Juries often come up with crazy verdicts.

Yes, I had noticed that. 35 years as a lawyer tends to bring such things to one's attention. This verdict is unusually stinky, however.


Did you notice most of the accused officers in Baltimore chose bench trials? In law enforcement there’s often a belief that guilty people love juries, innocent people prefer a judge.

I’ve seen all kinds of completely crazy jury verdicts. I also know I’ve yet to see a single police officer be empaneled for a jury...although a sitting judge recently made it on a jury in Utah.

When my cases end up in trials I hand them off to a partner, but we almost never want to be in front of a jury. Wen we are advising clients about settling a case, the unpredictability of juries is always a factor.

[Rocker Ute]

Watching Trump stomp around as he does (and thinking of other president before him who did the same thing) has made me come to the conclusion that our presidents have too much power and the checks and balances sought from the three branches of government is way out of whack. I think we are going to see more and more tyrants in that office until that gets fixed.


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[Diehard Ute]

Watching Trump stomp around as he does (and thinking of other president before him who did the same thing) has made me come to the conclusion that our presidents have too much power and the checks and balances sought from the three branches of government is way out of whack. I think we are going to see more and more tyrants in that office until that gets fixed.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It’s an excellent point.

Something I don’t think the founding fathers ever could see coming was the speed at which things can happen.

POTUS has a way to do many things very quickly. Congress and SCOTUS move like a sloth on depressants

How we fix that, I’m not sure.


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[LA Ute]

Utah governor calls out Steve Bannonhttps://www.deseretnews.com/article/900005228/utah-governor-calls-steve-bannon-a-mormon-bigot.html

[Diehard Ute]

Utah governor calls out Steve Bannonhttps://www.deseretnews.com/article/900005228/utah-governor-calls-steve-bannon-a-mormon-bigot.html

Everyone had called out Bannon. Even Boyd Matheson from the Sutherland Institute, whom Bannon has tried to recruit to run against Hatch.


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[LA Ute]

I got an e-mail today telling me that if I donate $20 to the National Republican Congressional Committee (or whatever NRCC stands for) I'll get one of these:

2300

If you want me to get one for you let me know. It'll cost you $20.

[Rocker Ute]

I got an e-mail today telling me that if I donate $20 to the National Republican Congressional Committee (or whatever NRCC stands for) I'll get one of these:

2300

If you want me to get one for you let me know. It'll cost you $20.

“We also promise to kill a baby kitten in your honor...”

Truthfully you should buy that and store it for your children. The kitsch value of that in 40 years from now may exceed your investment many times over.


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[LA Ute]

“We also promise to kill a baby kitten in your honor...”

Truthfully you should buy that and store it for your children. The kitsch value of that in 40 years from now may exceed your investment many times over.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The problem is that I would have to donate the $20 and would be forever on a list of people who have given money. They never leave you alone after that.


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[Ma'ake]

Everyone had called out Bannon. Even Boyd Matheson from the Sutherland Institute, whom Bannon has tried to recruit to run against Hatch.


"All politics is local"

Bannon's audience was in Alabama, where Mormons are fair game. His political soulmate, Trump, bought off the political audience in Utah on Monday, by slashing Bears Ears and chopping Grand Staircase in half.

So the whining from Utah about Bannon's attack on Romney / his sons / Mormon missionaries falls on deaf ears, for their political masters. "I slashed the monuments, now shut up!"

(Incensed Utahns / supporters of Romney won't see any connection.)

[Ma'ake]

It’s an excellent point.

Something I don’t think the founding fathers ever could see coming was the speed at which things can happen.

POTUS has a way to do many things very quickly. Congress and SCOTUS move like a sloth on depressants

How we fix that, I’m not sure.


There's a lot of things the Founding Fathers didn't / couldn't foresee: Aviation, nuclear weapons, bump stocks. They did, however, see the need for more deliberation in some parts of the federal government, which is why the Senate has 6 year terms, and the House just 2, and justices appointed for life.

When was the last declared war? WWII?

I find it fascinating, though, that among some conservatives who've been pining for a new Constitutional Convention to restore things a coolness to the idea, as it could be very unpredictable and go in ways they don't intend.

[LA Ute]

Kind of interesting.

Vice President Mike Pence And GOP Chair Reince Priebus Had A 'Plan B' To Replace Trump During Campaign

http://www.dailywire.com/news/24355/vice-president-mike-pence-and-gop-chair-reince-emily-zanotti?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_content=062316-news&utm_campaign=benshapiro

[LA Ute]

This still does not answer the question, “Why do this now?“


President Trump’s announcement that he will recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel has ignited a firestorm of protest. What’s disingenuous about the histrionic response is the capital’s move from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem is a longstanding goal of U.S. policy that once had bipartisan support.

When running for president 25 years ago, Bill Clinton promised to “support Jerusalem as the capital of the state of Israel.” President George W. Bush criticized Clinton for not following up on that commitment, but then W failed to make good on his too. During Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, he stated that, “we should move our embassy to Jerusalem” but never recognized the city as the capital once he was elected.

The difference now, whether one loves or hates Trump, is that people across the political spectrum are going berserk because he is moving to fulfill his campaign promise on this issue after the three previous presidents lied about it to win office.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2017/12/06/recognizing-israels-capital-has-been-bipartisan-policy-years-brett-m-decker-column/927957001/

[Rocker Ute]

This still does not answer the question, “Why do this now?“



https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2017/12/06/recognizing-israels-capital-has-been-bipartisan-policy-years-brett-m-decker-column/927957001/

I've long had a theory about some campaign promises that go unfulfilled by presidents. For example, a big part of the Obama platform was to shut down Gitmo. It remains open and enemy combatants are detained there with no plans for a trial to this day. I think what happens is that presidents get into office, get the full details of top secret information or the deeper reasons behind a policy and with that additional knowledge continue doing what they once railed against. I think Obama found out who these guys were in Gitmo and knew there was no scenario where they could be released or given a trial.

I think in the past while the goal was to set the embassy in Jerusalem, the experts would explain the problems it would cause among the muslim world, how it would pull the USA out as a potential impartial mediator and more. I think then they would do what previous presidents had done, democratic and republican, and continue to hold off the move.

As I said yesterday, this gets renewed every 6 months by past presidents. I would guess that it was time to renew, and Trump lacking the wit, wisdom and rationality to understand the facts proceeded ahead. I think that is the reason behind 'why now.'

[Dwight Schr-Ute]

This still does not answer the question, “Why do this now?“



https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2017/12/06/recognizing-israels-capital-has-been-bipartisan-policy-years-brett-m-decker-column/927957001/

Because he made a promise on the campaign trail. Duh.


God help us if he intends to keep all of those.

[U-Ute]

This still does not answer the question, “Why do this now?“



https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2017/12/06/recognizing-israels-capital-has-been-bipartisan-policy-years-brett-m-decker-column/927957001/

He has to have some successes to point to next year for the mid-terms

[Dwight Schr-Ute]

He has to have some successes to point to next year for the mid-terms

The definition of success has dropped.

2301

[Ma'ake]

Roy Moore tells African American questioner that America was Great under slavery, as families were together, etc. http://www.newsweek.com/roy-moore-last-time-america-great-during-slavery-741845

(Now that will get people distracted from Moore's perv problem!)

[LA Ute]

Roy Moore tells African American questioner that America was Great under slavery, as families were together, etc. http://www.newsweek.com/roy-moore-last-time-america-great-during-slavery-741845

(Now that will get people distracted from Moore's perv problem!)

My favorite Roy Moore anecdote was when he told a television interviewer that he didn’t remember whether he dated a particular teenage girl when he was in his 30s. The only possible reasons any man doesn’t remember something like that is because he’s lying, or because such dates were so common that all the girls blurred together in his memory.

[concerned]

My favorite Roy Moore anecdote was when he told a television interviewer that he didn’t remember whether he dated a particular teenage girl when he was in his 30s. The only possible reasons any man doesn’t remember something like that is because he’s lying, or because such dates were so common that all the girls blurred together in his memory.

My favorite Roy Moore quote was his describing meeting his current wife when she was 23. He remembered her name "Kayla" from seeing her in a school dance recital in an auditorium eight years earlier when she was fifteen. Giving him the benefit of the doubt that he had a legitimate, non-predatory reason for attending, who remembers the name of a 15 year old dancer eight years later unless he is salivating over her? How does he remember that but not remember what you reference? It has to be because they are all blurred in his mind.

[Ma'ake]

Here's a good article about how right-wing media is undermining the Mueller investigation, setting up the stage for no action when the investigation is done. http://www.sltrib.com/opinion/commentary/2017/12/09/paul-waldman-how-republicans-are-immunizing-their-voters-against-whatever-mueller-uncovers/

Since PR, politics and media are being blended, maybe Democrats & MSNBC should begin emphasizing that Mueller is a voting Republican, as are most of the FBI, so that as the indictments start flowing, the anti-FBI PR strategy will be negated, and Trump/Hannity will be forced to pivot to portraying this as a "real conservative" vs RINO issue.

Eventually, you have to think orthodox Republicans will start to stand up for themselves. They're letting a lot of damage be done to the GOP brand. (Here in Utah, good citizens were ecstatic when Trump granted their wishes and slashed Bears Ears and Grand Staircase, then were stunned and hurt when Trump's political soulmate Bannon threw not just Romney under the bus, but Mormons and their missionary service, too... the next day.)

There's another possibility: Since Trump's 71 years old, typically eats 2 Big Macs, 2 Filet-o-Fishes and a Chocolate shake for lunch, and is opposed to exercise - because he thinks there's a finite amount of energy / heartbeats / physical activity a person can engage in - maybe he doesn't make it to the 2020 elections.

The explosive temper, getting bigger and bigger, a horrendous diet and a erroneously grounded aversion to exercise all lead to a predictable outcome.

[UTEopia]

What say ye, LA https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/07/opinion/the-gop-is-rotting.html?action=click&contentCollection=Opinion&module=Trending&version=Full&region=Marginalia&pgtype=article

[LA Ute]

What say ye, LA https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/07/opinion/the-gop-is-rotting.html?action=click&contentCollection=Opinion&module=Trending&version=Full&region=Marginalia&pgtype=article

Several quick thoughts.

I generally react negatively when someone who isn’t really a Republican lectures the Republican Party about what’s wrong with it and what the party needs to fix. Brooks is at best what might have been called, once upon a time, a Rockefeller Republican. But I don’t even think he’s one of those. He’s a very good man with very intelligent, sensitive takes on society. But he is not a soothsayer of politics.

Second, he is right about Roy Moore and Trump. He is right about many things that Trump has done. He is right that many Republicans now feel homeless. I am still a Republican, and although I am very unhappy with where the party is right now, it still embodies most of my political philosophy. I try to vote pragmatically. I follow the William F. Buckley rule: vote for the most conservative candidate who can win. Usually.

I am certainly not going to become a Democrat. I would like to see some articles by former Democrats about how horribly disfigured that party has become. Democrats and liberals love to assume the mantle of righteousness, the idea that their views are not simply political, but are the views any decent, intelligent and enlightened person holds. It is ridiculous and alienating for them to do that. A lot of people on the left seems bent on killing the notion that reasonable people can disagree reasonably on important issues.

There is a whole middle part of the country that finds no real home in either party. We used to call those people independents, but now I’m not sure what to call them. I think it’s a growing group.

So don’t tell me that Trump and Republicans are the problem. Trump is a symptom of a wider problem, and everyone owns a piece of it. The tribal Democrats, the extreme right-wing Republicans and Evangelicals, and everyone who gives money to both sides. George Soros and his ilk on the left, the supporters of the Freedom Caucus on the right, and a host of others.

You might be discerning that I am not in a good mood about this today.

[Ma'ake]

I am certainly not going to become a Democrat. I would like to see some articles by former Democrats about how horribly disfigured that party has become. Democrats and liberals love to assume the mantle of righteousness, the idea that their views are not simply political, but are the views any decent, intelligent and enlightened person holds. It is ridiculous and alienating for them to do that. A lot of people on the left seems bent on killing the notion that reasonable people can disagree reasonably on important issues.

There is a whole middle part of the country that finds no real home in either party. We used to call those people independents, but now I’m not sure what to call them. I think it’s a growing group.


The split within the Democratic party has been overshadowed by Trump & the GOP's more public issues, but it was embodied by the Sanders-Clinton split in the primary. The overbearing righteousness of the liberal wing gets tempered by those of us in the moderate camp, if that helps. Bill Clinton (and Hillary and Obama) all pulled toward the middle, the Dems reaction to getting hammered by Reaganism. Plenty of my liberal friends are of the opinion that moderate Democrats are very close to moderate Republicans, ideologically.

My research colleague from Australia whose family are active in the Australian Conservative Party says US Democrats are really more akin to Auzzie conservatives, Canadian conservatives, the Christian Democrats of Germany (ie, not the Social Democrats), etc. This lines up with what my German buddy says. The US really doesn't have anything like a Socialist Party, or the Social Democrat party, or the Labor party of the UK. (Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren maybe come closest, but they're at the very edge of the spectrum in the US. Millenials in the US may demand more progressive Democratic candidates, from areas that can support it, such as NY & California.)

If you want a common, negative instrospective view of the Democratic Party, it would from liberals who believe both Clintons and Obama didn't go nearly far enough to address issues, instead placating industry and offering weak attempts to mitigate the excesses of capitalism. Obamacare itself is considered a weak half-measure, with no serious consequences/public competition for insurance companies, no pressure to tame the serious problems in US healthcare. (They begrudgingly admit that Obama's hands were tied, and strong liberal prescriptive policy measures were off the table, resulting in a very weak stimulus package following the Great Recession. Paul Krugman is the economist soul of liberalism / progressivism.)

What were considered "Independents" are analogous to the "Nones" of the religious landscape, folks who've checked out - or never really understood or accepted the ideological views of either party. (The Nones aren't just atheists. 2/3 of them believe in a higher power, in life after death.)

Between the rapid growth of religious Nones and disaffected political Independents, the social institutions of the nation are fraying, badly.

[LA Ute]

It would help everyone if the news media on all sides would calm down about Trump and work harder at just telling us, carefully, what is going on.

The U.S. Media’s Most Humiliating Debacle on Decades

https://theintercept.com/2017/12/09/the-u-s-media-yesterday-suffered-its-most-humiliating-debacle-in-ages-now-refuses-all-transparency-over-what-happened/

[UTEopia]

It would help everyone if the news media on all sides would calm down about Trump and work harder at just telling us, carefully, what is going on.



I agree. The more everyone makes about every little lie and stupidity coming out of Trump's mouth gives Trump what he craves and diverts our attention from confronting and tackling the big issues. Although I certainly lean left, I am an independent. Well, today I'm a registered Republican. I did that to vote for the most moderate Republican candidate to replace Chaffetz. Their are undoubtedly some fundamental things we disagree on, but I bet we agree on more than we disagree.

[Ma'ake]

It would help everyone if the news media on all sides would calm down about Trump and work harder at just telling us, carefully, what is going on.


I agree. That was an inexcusable pileup that requires explanation and transparent accountability.

[Diehard Ute]

I’ve come to understand Trump is merely Veruca Salt


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[LA Ute]

Pre-emptive moves to protect against Trump bouncing Mueller: https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/05/trump-mueller-democrats-congress-281810

It's encouraging that some Republican Senators at least see the risk in Mueller getting canned, but how they'll vote is another question. Another question is will it matter, if Trump jumps headlong into a constitutional crisis, anyway. "The President cannot obstruct justice". That was a planted seed to not just defend him, but build to support for eliminating Mueller.

Another move that is seriously troubling is Pompeo assembling a privatized international spy ring to counter the "Deep State" CIA folks whom he doesn't trust. I would expect further moves in this direction, deliberate moves to negate / counter our intelligence services. (A whole lot of the Russian intel apparatus are not employees of the FSB, but rather loosely connected actors who do the bidding of Putin, such as the various "incidents" that help opposition to Putin in Russia be dramatically muted.)

The POTUS cannot be prosecuted for an otherwise lawful exercise of his constitutional powers. As politically odious and stupid as the firing of Comey or Mueller might be, they were, or would be, lawful exercises of the president‘s constitutional powers. So a lot of the obstruction of justice talk floating around right now is nonsense.


The ultimate check on presidential power is impeachment. Even though Mr. Trump cannot have violated criminal law in dismissing Mr. Comey, if a majority of representatives believe he acted improperly or corruptly, they are free to impeach him. If two-thirds of senators agree, they can remove him from office. Congress would then be politically accountable for its action. Such is the genius of our Constitution’s checks and balances.

None of this is to suggest the president has absolute immunity from criminal obstruction-of-justice laws. He simply cannot be prosecuted for an otherwise lawful exercise of his constitutional powers. The cases of Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton —the latter impeached, and the former nearly so, for obstruction of justice—have contributed to today’s confusion. These were not criminal charges but articulations of “high crimes and misdemeanors,” the constitutional standard for impeachment.

And in neither case was the accusation based on the president’s exercise of his lawful constitutional powers. If a president authorizes the bribery of a witness to suppress truthful testimony, as Nixon was accused of doing, he can be said to have obstructed justice. Likewise if a president asks a potential witness to commit perjury in a judicial action having nothing to do with the exercise of his office, as Mr. Clinton was accused of doing.

Although neither man could have been prosecuted while in office without his consent, either could have been after leaving office. That’s why President Ford pardoned Nixon—to avoid the spectacle and poisonous political atmosphere of a criminal trial. In Mr. Trump’s case, by contrast, the president exercised the power to fire an executive-branch official whom he may dismiss for any reason, good or bad, or for no reason at all. To construe that as a crime would unravel America’s entire constitutional structure.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-a-president-obstruct-justice-1512938781

I don’t know why Trump doesn’t just declassify records of all the allegedly politically motivated activities used against him. For example, the unmasking of that telephone conversation with the Russians. If there really were some games played (and I don’t know if that really happened) why not just expose them to the public?

[U-Ute]

I don’t know why Trump doesn’t just declassify records of all the allegedly politically motivated activities used against him. For example, the unmasking of that telephone conversation with the Russians. If there really were some games played (and I don’t know if that really happened) why not just expose them to the public?

With politicians in general, and especially with Trump, you never get the whole truth. They only tell you the part they want you to hear. They purposefully leave out the stuff they don't want you to hear. So that's what you have to listen to and reason about.

So why would Trump not release those tapes if they would exonerate him with regards to surveillance on him? Probably because whatever else is on that tapes is a much bigger problem to him.

[concerned]

The POTUS cannot be prosecuted for an otherwise lawful exercise of his constitutional powers.

That begs the question, doesn't it? Depends on the reason he fires Mueller or Comey.

[LA Ute]

That begs the question, doesn't it? Depends on the reason he fires Mueller or Comey.

What reason would represent an unlawful exercise of his executive
powers?

[concerned]

What reason would represent an unlawful exercise of his executive
powers?

You know the answer. To terminate an investigation into his own wrongdoing. Your are not going Alan Dershowitz on this are you?

[LA Ute]

You know the answer. To terminate an investigation into his own wrongdoing. Your are not going Alan Dershowitz on this are you?

Wouldn’t that be an impeachable offense, as opposed to a criminal one? I’m basing my view on that op-ed I linked to.

[concerned]

Wouldn’t that be an impeachable offense, as opposed to a criminal one? I’m basing my view on that op-ed I linked to.

Sorry; I misread your comment; I thought you said impeached, not prosecuted. Again, however, it depends on why and how he does it, since obstruction of justice can be a crime.

[LA Ute]

Sorry; I misread your comment; I thought you said impeached, not prosecuted. Again, however, it depends on why and how he does it, since obstruction of justice can be a crime.

I’m not going all Dershowitz on you, but are you saying that if the FBI starts investigating the POTUS, the FBI Director has job security as long as the investigation continues? Seems extra-Constitutional to me.

[Ma'ake]

I have to take back all the bad things I've said about Alabama (the state).

Does Trump turn to conspiracy theories?

Does Mitch McConnell get another round of flogging?

Conventional wisdom is the Dems use this as a launch point into 2018, and as politicians around him accused of sexual abuse dwindle in number, Trump gets even more erratic in trying to defend himself.

(The short term question is whether this will tank the GOP tax reform.)

[LA Ute]

You can all thank the Republican voters of Alabama, who did the right thing and gave you this victory. Good for them. It is possible that they don’t deserve the moral judgments so many Democrats have been imposing on them because of that creep‘s nomination after a nasty primary.

Unless Mr. Jones runs to the center very hard and fast, he is going to have only a single term in the Senate.

And Steve Bannon should crawl back under his rock for a while now.

[LA Ute]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171213/ac742e2c354723518f0c699ef9149617.jpg

[Rocker Ute]

You can all thank the Republican voters of Alabama, who did the right thing and gave you this victory. Good for them. It is possible that they don’t deserve the moral judgments so many Democrats have been imposing on them because of that creep‘s nomination after a nasty primary.

Unless Mr. Jones runs to the center very hard and fast, he is going to have only a single term in the Senate.

And Steve Bannon should crawl back under his rock for a while now.

I've seen a lot of media sources stating this is a referendum on Trump and the Republican party and a victory for the Democrats (well mostly CNN but they've said it about 40 times with Chris Chilliza giving us another pointless breakdown and mansplaining to us what it means). I actually think it is a referendum on child predators and not the victory for the Democratic party as it is being painted. If a Dem had won in Alabama against anyone who wasn't the worst possible candidate then they'd have a point.

Yet any reasonable person should be disgusted by the RNC and Trump right now, who did go and throw their weight behind Moore when they could have continued to shun him. Playing the long game that would have been the better plan to win the hearts and minds of the American people. Now the worst possible outcome for them, they've both lost the seat and any semblance of a moral compass. What Mitt Romney said was exactly right.

[LA Ute]

I've seen a lot of media sources stating this is a referendum on Trump and the Republican party and a victory for the Democrats (well mostly CNN but they've said it about 40 times with Chris Chilliza giving us another pointless breakdown and mansplaining to us what it means). I actually think it is a referendum on child predators and not the victory for the Democratic party as it is being painted. If a Dem had won in Alabama against anyone who wasn't the worst possible candidate then they'd have a point.

Yet any reasonable person should be disgusted by the RNC and Trump right now, who did go and throw their weight behind Moore when they could have continued to shun him. Playing the long game that would have been the better plan to win the hearts and minds of the American people. Now the worst possible outcome for them, they've both lost the seat and any semblance of a moral compass. What Mitt Romney said was exactly right.

I have great respect for Senator Cory Gardner, the chair of the GOP committee that normally donates to Republican candidates, who refused to donate to Moore and who promised to try to expel him if elected.

Meanwhile, here’s a comment:


“Luther Strange would have won in a landslide… Just too much crazy in nerve racking times,” influential news kingpin Matt Drudge wrote on Twitter following Moore’s loss. “There IS a limit!”

“This is a brutal reminder that candidate quality matters regardless of where you are running,” Steve Law, president of the Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC, said in a statement. “Not only did Steve Bannon cost us a critical Senate seat in one of the most Republican states in the country, but he also dragged the President of the United States into his fiasco,” Law said.

Democratic strategist Paul Begala mockingly thanked Bannon for making Democratic candidate Doug Jones’ victory possible.

“Special thanks to the genius strategist who did so much to make this happen: Steve Bannon,” Begala gloated.

http://dailycaller.com/2017/12/12/steve-bannon-blamed-mocked-after-roy-moore-loss/

[Rocker Ute]

I have great respect for Senator Cory Gardner, the chair of the GOP committee that normally donates to Republican candidates, who refused to donate to Moore and who promised to try to expel him if elected.

Meanwhile, here’s a comment:



http://dailycaller.com/2017/12/12/steve-bannon-blamed-mocked-after-roy-moore-loss/


Bannon needs to be expunged from politics. That guy is genuinely scary and deserves all the mockery he'll get over this.

[Ma'ake]

I have great respect for Senator Cory Gardner, the chair of the GOP committee that normally donates to Republican candidates, who refused to donate to Moore and who promised to try to expel him if elected.

As do I.

I agree this has much less to do with Alabamans turning away from the GOP and inaction on their agenda, and everything to do with plain old decency. Moore had won his previous elections by narrow margins in off election years, and his support shrunk from those elections last night. He was a bad candidate who became horrific.

But the RNC's support of Moore, going along with Trump's support, will be collars of shame around most GOP candidates for the 2018 election cycle. There's been a sea change on this issue.

(Is the Democratic Party ready to capitalize? Right now, no. When pressed on who leads the Democratic Party, Elizabeth Warren was right: "Democratic voters are the leaders of the Democratic Party". Tom Perez has to go. The old guard has to go. It's time for new leadership, new ideas for a changed landscape. We'll see if they're capable of adapting.)

[NorthwestUteFan]

Bannon needs to be expunged from politics. That guy is genuinely scary and deserves all the mockery he'll get over this.(Olympus High and UofU grad) Karl Rove was scary. But at least he wanted to work within the system to improve things.

Bannon is a terrifying demagogue who wants to completely remake the government by tearing it down. If he was still active duty the Navy would hang him for treason (kidding, obviously).

[U-Ute]

You can all thank the Republican voters of Alabama, who did the right thing and gave you this victory. Good for them. It is possible that they don’t deserve the moral judgments so many Democrats have been imposing on them because of that creep‘s nomination after a nasty primary.

From what I've been reading, the only way Republican voters helped was by not turning out. By all accounts, Republican turnout was low while Democratic turnout was significantly higher, helped by an NAACP drive to make sure voters were ready for the ID laws and had rides.


Unless Mr. Jones runs to the center very hard and fast, he is going to have only a single term in the Senate.

I dunno. By the accounts I'm reading on FiveThirtyEight, the bigger issue for the GOP is who is coming out of the primaries. Had anyone besides Moore been the GOP nominee, the GOP would've won this seat.


And Steve Bannon should crawl back under his rock for a while now.

I'm not sure this sharp repudiation will slow him down. If anything, it may fire him up.

[U-Ute]

Republicans Shouldn’t Assume Roy Moore Was An Outlier Alabama is more evidence that the GOP needs to be worried about 2018.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-shouldnt-assume-roy-moore-was-an-outlier/

[U-Ute]

Roger Stone has already started making notes about the Trump administration for his book: The Fall Of Trump

Also this:


"It’s painfully obvious Mueller will bring charges," Stone told Vanity Fair (https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/12/roger-stone-book-fall-of-trump?mbid=social_twitter). "The theory is Mueller will indict him on some process-related matter.... The only people who don’t seem to know it are [Trump lawyers] Ty Cobb, [John] Dowd, and the president."


http://www.newsweek.com/painfully-obvious-trump-charged-mueller-roger-stone-747155

[LA Ute]

Roger Stone has already started making notes about the Trump administration for his book: The Fall Of Trump

Also this:


http://www.newsweek.com/painfully-obvious-trump-charged-mueller-roger-stone-747155

Roger Stone is a clown, and a malicious one at that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[USS Utah]

So, once again we learn that not just anybody can become a Senator.

[Ma'ake]

Republicans Shouldn’t Assume Roy Moore Was An Outlier

Alabama is more evidence that the GOP needs to be worried about 2018.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-shouldnt-assume-roy-moore-was-an-outlier/

I dunno about this guy's methodology - eg "the 30 point swing in Alabama is due to 10 points of this, 10 points of that and 10 points of this other thing", but from a 40,000 foot view, he makes some interesting observations.

Obama's election led to the Dems losing Kennedy's seat to Scott Brown's election. Trump's election led to Roy Moore's flameout.

A bit like the climate changes we're seeing, the political climate has bigger oscillations than normal, IMO, as the underlying economic foundation for the middle class is getting smaller and weaker. The rise of Amazon is making a lot of retail workers desperate.

In 2020, we may hear "Well, Trump turned out to be a disaster, and the GOP tax cut just made the fat cats fatter. This time I'm going with Bernie, even though he's pushing 90. Simplify healthcare. We all should have it, why it's taken this long is a crime".

The swings are bigger. If Kamala Harris were elected in 2020, there would be a convoy of pickups and shotguns headed to DC, from the red states, getting instruction from Hannity and Rush, on their AM radios. We all thought people lost their minds during the Clinton and W's eras.

The amplifications just keep getting bigger.

[LA Ute]

I liked this, from Jim Geraghty:


To the extent there is still a Republican mainstream, Roy Moore isn’t in it. Nationally, this group doesn’t like the idea of thirtysomething men dating teenage girls in general and wasn’t so certain that Moore didn’t do something inappropriate with those four named girls. Whatever their concerns about Islam, they don’t think that Muslims should be barred from holding public office. They’re big fans of all the current constitutional Amendments, not just the first ten. They don’t think the era of slavery was great for family values. They don’t think that you could say America is the focus of evil in the modern world. Most Republicans know that you are not legally required to take the oath of office on a Bible; it’s not clear that Moore campaign spokesman Ted Crockett knew this....

A lot of the blame for last night’s defeat is being laid at the feet of Steve Bannon, with plenty of justification. Congressman Adam Kinzinger: “Bannon is a RINO. His morally inept strategies are unwelcome here.” Congressman Peter King: “After Alabama disaster GOP must do right thing and DUMP Steve Bannon. His act is tired, inane and morally vacuous. If we are to Make America Great Again for all Americans, Bannon must go! And go NOW!!”

The thing is . . . go where? He’s not in the White House anymore. It’s not clear that any elected Republicans of significance turn to Bannon for guidance. (Does Trump still talk to him?) Bannon is basically running his own operation, attracting the desperate detritus of past cycles who are hoping for one last comeback shot.

http://www.nationalreview.com

[LA Ute]

I really like Megan McArdle’s work. She is smart and is willing to criticize both sides.

Right-sizing the Power of Republican Insurgents

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-13/right-sizing-the-power-of-republican-insurgents

[U-Ute]

I dunno about this guy's methodology - eg "the 30 point swing in Alabama is due to 10 points of this, 10 points of that and 10 points of this other thing", but from a 40,000 foot view, he makes some interesting observations.

Obama's election led to the Dems losing Kennedy's seat to Scott Brown's election. Trump's election led to Roy Moore's flameout.

A bit like the climate changes we're seeing, the political climate has bigger oscillations than normal, IMO, as the underlying economic foundation for the middle class is getting smaller and weaker. The rise of Amazon is making a lot of retail workers desperate.

In 2020, we may hear "Well, Trump turned out to be a disaster, and the GOP tax cut just made the fat cats fatter. This time I'm going with Bernie, even though he's pushing 90. Simplify healthcare. We all should have it, why it's taken this long is a crime".

The swings are bigger. If Kamala Harris were elected in 2020, there would be a convoy of pickups and shotguns headed to DC, from the red states, getting instruction from Hannity and Rush, on their AM radios. We all thought people lost their minds during the Clinton and W's eras.

The amplifications just keep getting bigger.

FiveThirtyEight is about as good as it gets when it comes to polling and methodology.

They correctly predicted all 50 states in Obama's 2012 campaign and were the only pollsters out there saying that Trump had a 50/50 chance of winning the 2016 election.

[sancho]

They correctly predicted all 50 states in Obama's 2012 campaign and were the only pollsters out there saying that Trump had a 50/50 chance of winning the 2016 election.

I'm sure they're good at polling, but this was not all that difficult. There were 45 or so states that everyone got right, and they happened to get the other 5. If everyone just flipped a coin on those 5, about 3% of guessers would end up perfect.

[NorthwestUteFan]

I'm sure they're good at polling, but this was not all that difficult. There were 45 or so states that everyone got right, and they happened to get the other 5. If everyone just flipped a coin on those 5, about 3% of guessers would end up perfect.But the coinflip states were exactly coinflips. The margin was on the order of two votes per precinct.

[sancho]

But the coinflip states were exactly coinflips. The margin was on the order of two votes per precinct.

Yeah, but still just coin flips. If we had done a utahby5 bracket, a handful of posters would have nailed all 50 states just like Silver did.

[mUUser]

.....If Kamala Harris were elected in 2020, there would be a convoy of pickups and shotguns headed to DC, from the red states, getting instruction from Hannity and Rush, on their AM radios.......

What exactly are you trying to say here?

[LA Ute]

But the coinflip states were exactly coinflips. The margin was on the order of two votes per precinct.

These types of analyses always miss the point. Trump won narrowly in states that Democrats usually carry by wide margins. That is why it was a debacle for Clinton and the Democrats, and that is why it is politically and historically significant. I don’t like him, but there is no denying the phenomenon that occurred in 2016. Democrats who want to claim that this was all a matter of Trump stealing the election somehow are whistling past the graveyard, in my opinion.


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[UTEopia]

These types of analyses always miss the point. Trump won narrowly in states that Democrats usually carry by wide margins. That is why it was a debacle for Clinton and the Democrats, and that is why it is politically and historically significant. I don’t like him, but there is no denying the phenomenon that occurred in 2016. Democrats who want to claim that this was all a matter of Trump stealing the election somehow are whistling past the graveyard, in my opinion.

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I agree to a point. Trump won those states because Hillary was unable to get the voters who previously voted for Obama to the polls not because those people switched allegiance to the GOP.

[NorthwestUteFan]

These types of analyses always miss the point. Trump won narrowly in states that Democrats usually carry by wide margins. That is why it was a debacle for Clinton and the Democrats, and that is why it is politically and historically significant. I don’t like him, but there is no denying the phenomenon that occurred in 2016. Democrats who want to claim that this was all a matter of Trump stealing the election somehow are whistling past the graveyard, in my opinion.


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkHillary literally ignored the local Dem leaders on the ground who were begging her to make an appearance, send materials and people, assist with GOTV and voter registration, etc. Not only did she ignore the call, but her campaign also swept locally-raised funds into the national campaign coffers. And because she ignored the grassroots leadership and disregarded their statements and instead listened to her own polling, tens of thousands of Obama voters couldn't or wouldn't vote and she lost a slam-dunk election to the worst major-party candidate in modern history. By two votes per precinct, many of those precincts in districts who were begging for assistance.

What the DNC did was an egregious waste of a billion dollars, and everyone at the DNC above the level of janitors and secretaries should be fired and never allowed to control the party again.

[concerned]

NUF and Uteopia are both right, IMHO. The Obama coalition didn't have the same enthusiasm for Hillary, and didn't turn out, especially in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. (No surprise; she was a horrible candidate in her own right.) Hillary suffered from running against the worst candidate ever by underestimating him. Instead of shoring up support in those states, she spent a lot of time, money, and energy trying to expand the map into Georgia, Texas, Utah, and Arizona, because she wanted a historic mandate. She didn't take Trump seriously, and then the Comey letter tipped the scales (Yes, i think it made a difference, so dont bother castigating me about it LA Ute.)

[LA Ute]

I think the explanation for the loss of the “blue wall” states is complex. But I think Democrats are trying to explain it in a very self-flattering way. Something significant happened there, and it was more than Obama voters simply staying home. Those same states voted decisively for Democrats in the last seven or eight elections, not just when Obama was running.

I’m not trying to make a case for Trump‘s special appeal, just trying to understand it. This is the political science major in me talking.

Concerned, there is no doubt that Comey made a difference in the election. I think his behavior was erratic to say the least, and his explanations for his strange behavior, both during the Clinton email investigation and his exoneration of her, and then in his last-minute release of information, are tortured. I can’t understand the way the guy thinks. Personally I believe he over-thinks matters. He will not be remembered as a great FBI director.


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[U-Ute]

I think the explanation for the loss of the “blue wall” states is complex. But I think Democrats are trying to explain it in a very self-flattering way. Something significant happened there, and it was more than Obama voters simply staying home. Those same states voted decisively for Democrats in the last seven or eight elections, not just when Obama was running.

I’m not trying to make a case for Trump‘s special appeal, just trying to understand it. This is the political science major in me talking.

Concerned, there is no doubt that Comey made a difference in the election. I think his behavior was erratic to say the least, and his explanations for his strange behavior, both during the Clinton email investigation and his exoneration of her, and then in his last-minute release of information, are tortured. I can’t understand the way the guy thinks. Personally I believe he over-thinks matters. He will not be remembered as a great FBI director.


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http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/12/the_myth_of_the_rust_belt_revolt.html



Compared with 2012, three times as many voters in the Rust Belt who made under $100,000 voted for third parties. Twice as many voted for alternative or write-in candidates. Similarly, compared with 2012, some 500,000 more voters chose to sit out this presidential election. If there was a Rust Belt revolt this year, it was the voters’ flight from both parties.

In short, the story of a white working-class revolt in the Rust Belt just doesn't hold up, according to the numbers. In the Rust Belt, Democrats lost 1.35 million voters. Trump picked up less than half, at 590,000. The rest stayed home or voted for someone other than the major party candidates.

This data suggests that if the Democratic Party wants to win the Rust Belt, it should not go chasing after the white working-class men who voted for Trump. The party should spend its energy figuring out why Democrats lost millions of voters to some other candidate or to abstention. Exit polls do not collect information about why voters stay home. Perhaps it’s time someone asked them.

[NorthwestUteFan]

I think the explanation for the loss of the “blue wall” states is complex. But I think Democrats are trying to explain it in a very self-flattering way. Something significant happened there, and it was more than Obama voters simply staying home. Those same states voted decisively for Democrats in the last seven or eight elections, not just when Obama was running.

I’m not trying to make a case for Trump‘s special appeal, just trying to understand it. This is the political science major in me talking.

Concerned, there is no doubt that Comey made a difference in the election. I think his behavior was erratic to say the least, and his explanations for his strange behavior, both during the Clinton email investigation and his exoneration of her, and then in his last-minute release of information, are tortured. I can’t understand the way the guy thinks. Personally I believe he over-thinks matters. He will not be remembered as a great FBI director.


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The old DNC leadership should all get shitcanned. While a president is in office, the typical (and smart) plan is to shrink the staff at the federal level and to focus as much money and effort at the local level as possible.

When BHO was in office, the DNC kept top policy consultant groups on staff, and they spent on the order of a billion dollars. So the consultants now have fifth houses on the Maryland Shore (thanks to large corporations and to people who donated to their local Dem party fundraisers) while urban Dem leaders have been forgotten and neglected. As a result, a huge percentage of the local elections have swung sharply toward Republicans during that time frame.

As for Comey, he was bullied by Congress to show that he was investigating Emailgate. And never forget that Jason Chaffetz was the person who leaked Comey's letter.

[LA Ute]

It’s interesting. It seems to me that when Republicans lose, they worry that their message was wrong. When Democrats lose, they worry that their tactics were wrong. Maybe each side could learn a little from the other, because it’s rarely just one or the other of those two factors.


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[concerned]

It’s interesting. It seems to me that when Republicans lose, they worry that their message was wrong. When Democrats lose, they worry that their tactics were wrong. Maybe each side could learn a little from the other, because it’s rarely just one or the other of those two factors.


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Disagree. Bernie, biden, obama to a lesser degree, and reportedly bill clinton in private, repeatedly said the message was wrong--the hillary did not speak enough to the economic concerns of white middle class blue collar voters.

[LA Ute]

Disagree. Bernie, biden, obama to a lesser degree, and reportedly bill clinton in private, repeatedly said the message was wrong--the hillary did not speak enough to the economic concerns of white middle class blue collar voters.

I was speaking generally. Northwest Ute Fan is blaming tactics, and I was responding to that — with love, of course. He knows that. 😄 And I maintain that the party elders you mention are the exception. The young bucks still think they just need to double down, and emphasize the left-leaning messages that focus identity politics, for example. Just look at what Pérez, the party chairman, is saying.


SIEGEL: But the implication of that is that those states were lost for lack of effort last year, not for serious reasons of substance or opinions of the candidate. Is that what happened, that you just didn't try hard enough to win in those states?

PEREZ: Well, I think what Democrats stopped doing enough of was organizing everywhere. And we were good at mobilizing, Robert. Mobilizing is that sprint up to the election. But we weren't good at organizing. Organizing is the marathon. It's talking to people 12 months a year. It's building relationships with people. And we used to be the best at that.

https://www.npr.org/2017/11/08/562903167/dnc-chair-tom-perez-on-what-this-years-election-means-for-the-party

That said, I must also note that lots of hard-core conservatives think that the only reason the GOP hasn’t been more dominant is that it’s not conservative enough. To that crowd, that’s why McCain and Romney both lost.

[Ma'ake]

Putin definitely knows how to play Trump. Whether or not one gives any credence to the Steele dossier, the behavior of Trump & Putin reinforce the theory that Putin "recruited" Trump. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5183371/Trump-calls-Putin-invented-election-meddling.html

You have to think that with the Russian "elections" coming up soon, Trump is itching to make a visit and campaign for Putin. (Putin praised him, therefore they're friends for life.)

[Rocker Ute]

Now there are reports that Biden is positioning himself for a presidential run in 2020, indicating that the combination of Trump plus the leadership vacuum in the Democratic Party is going to embolden unqualified characters just like in the Republican Party in 2016. Joe Biden as president would be a disaster (not on the scale of Trump by any means, but I really believe this country needs a solid leader to help us recover and unify).


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[mUUser]

Now there are reports that Biden is positioning himself for a presidential run in 2020, indicating that the combination of Trump plus the leadership vacuum in the Democratic Party is going to embolden unqualified characters just like in the Republican Party in 2016. Joe Biden as president would be a disaster (not on the scale of Trump by any means, but I really believe this country needs a solid leader to help us recover and unify).


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No way I'm casting a vote for Biden. Although if the Dems could push through one of the Joe's (Donnelly, Manchin or Lieberman) I could get onboard. Cory Booker is interesting. Although too liberal for my tastes, he occasionally flirts with libertarianism. I can embrace that. I think Kirsten Gillibrand deserves a look too. Sanders & Warren are way too looney left for me.

On the Republican side, I could never vote for Trump. Therefore, if its Trump vs Biden/Sanders/Warren I guess I'll have to write in a candidate......again. I'm hoping Thune or Kasich takes a run at Trump in 2020. Kasich vs Manchin would be ideal.

[Ma'ake]

Now there are reports that Biden is positioning himself for a presidential run in 2020, indicating that the combination of Trump plus the leadership vacuum in the Democratic Party is going to embolden unqualified characters just like in the Republican Party in 2016. Joe Biden as president would be a disaster (not on the scale of Trump by any means, but I really believe this country needs a solid leader to help us recover and unify).


I like Joe, he has a soul. But hopefully this is more of a motivational gimmick to get other candidates to step up.

I have no idea if they have baggage that precludes a serious run, but the governor of Washington state Jay Inslee looks impressive, the ex-governor of Michigan Jennifer Granholm is sharp and might be the one to break the last glass ceiling. Senator Amy Klobuchar (sp?) of Wisconsin is likewise very bright.

I've cooled on the idea of Kamala Harris, because she's thrown her weight behind single payer healthcare (which is still premature, at best), and also I'm not sure the nation is ready for another non-white president... but Harris unquestionably has the mettle to succeed at that level. If Harris ran and picked up momentum, she could win. She would get a better turnout among Democrats, and by 2020 the economic expansion will have (or will be) run out of steam, and many of the folks who voted for Trump will be ready for a change of direction.

[LA Ute]

I like Joe, he has a soul. But hopefully this is more of a motivational gimmick to get other candidates to step up.

I have no idea if they have baggage that precludes a serious run, but the governor of Washington state Jay Inslee looks impressive, the ex-governor of Michigan Jennifer Granholm is sharp and might be the one to break the last glass ceiling. Senator Amy Klobuchar (sp?) of Wisconsin is likewise very bright.

I've cooled on the idea of Kamala Harris, because she's thrown her weight behind single payer healthcare (which is still premature, at best), and also I'm not sure the nation is ready for another non-white president... but Harris unquestionably has the mettle to succeed at that level. If Harris ran and picked up momentum, she could win. She would get a better turnout among Democrats, and by 2020 the economic expansion will have (or will be) run out of steam, and many of the folks who voted for Trump will be ready for a change of direction.

The Kamala Harris we have seen in California has been quite far left. I have stories. Not sure that would work at a national level. But she could probably pretend to be more of a centrist and get away with it. The news media would not challenge her on that, except for FOX News, and their audience is already going to be convinced that she’s evil.

[Ma'ake]

(I know we have a healthcare thread, but this involves the tax law set to be effective in 2 weeks, it appears)

Obamacare signups are surging. But the small businessman in this article probably doesn't know the subsidies that got him to $100 a month in premiums are evaporating, effective January 1.


"People need health care, that is plain and simple," said Kevin Watkins of Florence, Alabama. A self-employed consultant helping small businesses sell online, Watkins re-enrolled for 2018. He'll pay under $100 a month after subsidies.

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/900005844/sign-ups-show-health-law-s-staying-power-in-trump-era.html

[LA Ute]

Ruh-roh.


Suffolk University and USA Today released a poll this week, which found that among people who trust Fox News the most, the president’s approval rating has been sinking. His favorability among Fox devotees in June was 90 percent. In October, it was 74 percent. This week? Fifty-eight percent. If that trend continues, he will be underwater with the Fox audience long before the 2018 midterms.

You can cry “fake polls,” as Trump often does. But was the same poll fake in June? Or are the same trends that led to Trump’s historically abysmal approval ratings now reaching even the Fox faithful?

From Virginia to Oklahoma to Alabama, establishment and anti-establishment GOP candidates alike have lost in large part because Democrats, Independents and a significant number of Republicans disapprove of Trump more than they approve of him. His pander-to-the-base approach still does wonders for Hannity & Co.’s ratings, but ratings aren’t votes.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/454668/donald-trump-president-losing-fox-news-viewers-approval-rating?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NR%20Daily%20Monday%20through%20Frida y%202017-12-15&utm_term=NR5PM%20Actives

[Ma'ake]

Ruh-roh.


Just watching Malcolm Nance, a former CIA analyst, explaining that the media is a fundamental opponent of autocrats, and totalitarian regimes. Putin took deliberate steps to bring the Russian media to heel, resulting in his yearly press conference this week (complete with the little signs journalists hold up with their question on them so Putin can choose the questions / topics he wants to discuss).

The rumors in DC is Trump may fire Mueller on or around Dec 22nds (ie, after Congress recesses) either via Rod Rosenstein, or by repealing an obscure rule that prevents him from doing it directly, and then firing him outright. Certainly the signs are lining up that way. We'll see. (Even if he doesn't, the messaging helps create the situation where it is expected, if/when it eventually happens).

If Trump is going to make the transition to becoming a Putin style autocrat, he needs to control overall messaging much better, like exists in Russia. Trump is no Putin, intellectually, or in terms of discipline, but he's always been jealous of Putin's 80+% approval rating, now at risk even among Fox viewers. Dramatic action is needed to end the existential threat Mueller's investigation poses.

Is Congress divided enough to not be able to stand up to a Trump firing of Mueller? From the Right, FBI leadership is under direct attack. A bi-partisan bill is being circulated to inoculate Mueller from a firing, but supposedly it's not generating much enthusiasm from Republicans. (I have no idea - since Mueller was appointed by the Executive Branch, how does Congress inoculate Mueller?)

What I want to know is that now that Bannon has been gone, who is pulling the strings? (A Utah-specific example - who decided to name one of the parts of Bears Ears using the Navajo word, after the Navajos changed their proposed monument to be "Bears Ears" to get support from other tribes? Divide and Conquer is a repetitive theme, both in behavior we're seeing, also in how autocrats rise to power.)

[LA Ute]

I think this is a must-read. As usual, David points out the problems on both right and left.

Constant Hysterics Damage Our Democracy

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/454692/net-neutrality-hysteria-constant-hysterics-damage-democracy

[LA Ute]

I don’t think it is as bad as he says it is, but this is interesting food for thought:


America’s authoritarian shift did not start with Trump’s election, but has been brewing for years. In the Obama years, we lived under “pen and phone” rule by decree that largely disempowered both Congress and local control. The former president’s legacy to the progressive coalition — paused briefly when power unexpectedly went to the GOP — means continued Democratic support for agglomeration of power in the executive.

This form of executive dictatorship is now more likely to return to the White House in 2020. The notion of enlightened rule from above may have even been further justified by the very fact that what Time’s Joe Klein has called “a nation of dodos” voted for Trump in the first place. The hoi polloi can be appealed to and cajoled, it appears, but not really trusted.

Unlike Trump, whose political methods are both offensive and self-defeating, the mandarins can count on support from most of the media, the non-profit world and the ascendant techie wing of the tech/media oligarchy, what Daniel Bell called “the priests of the machine.” Unlike the factionalized Republicans, the new mandarinate — entertainment, news media, law, software — share a strong commitment to a common progressive ideology.

More important still, the mandarins control most of the means of communication, particularly those that attract younger people. This will assist, as our secular pontiff, Jerry Brown, put it, efforts to successfully “brainwash” the masses. China’s recently anointed emperor, Xi Jinping, admired by Brown and many other American mandarins, may emerge as the new role model. That is, after Xi has shown how control of education and media can work on getting the masses to embrace “right thinking.”

http://www.ocregister.com/2017/12/16/the-new-mandarins-of-the-deep-state/

[Ma'ake]

I don’t think it is as bad as he says it is, but this is interesting food for thought:


The David French piece from National Review was robust on highlighting leftwing hysteria and doomsday-ism on Trump. This OCRegister piece tries to match the left wing hysterics, and raises the ante.

Interesting to know Jerry Brown worships China's Xi. Trump unquestionably admires Putin. That's just it - our inter-tribal warfare has the two main sides looking outside the nation for answers, our appetite and confidence in working together has eroded.

The column nailed one thing - this has been a long time in the making (though I point to economics as the primary driver, the author cites the growing power of the executive).

[Ma'ake]

Listened to Bob Corker this morning defending himself on his not knowing about the real estate provision of the tax bill. I tend to believe him, I think Orrin Hatch was right - nobody "air dropped" that provision into the final bill to buy off Corker's vote. Corker just was convinced of the overall merits of the bill by other Republicans and businessmen in Tennessee.

From the other tribe, what Adam Schiff is saying about (some) Republicans being fearful of what Mueller may find being the primary thrust of their criticisms of Mueller also seems true.

[LA Ute]

"2017, the year of living splenetically." Nice turn of phrase.

Politics has become the survival of the shrillest

http://www.sltrib.com/opinion/commentary/2017/12/21/george-f-will-politics-has-become-the-survival-of-the-shrillest/



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[LA Ute]

This might be behind a paywall but it’s an interesting and seemingly unbiased breakdown of the tax bill's impact on various industries.

http://www.wsj.com/graphics/taxes-corporate-sectors/?mod=e2fb

[LA Ute]

A log on the fire. I’m posting this not because I like Trump but because I dislike Clinton and her minions.

Was the Steele Dossier the FBI’s ‘Insurance Policy’?

http://amp.nationalreview.com/article/454909/trump-russia-collusion-fbi-investigation-steele-dossier-hillary-clinton-campaign

[LA Ute]

McCabe about to retire from FBI at age 49.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/facing-republican-attacks-fbis-deputy-director-plans-to-retire-early-next-year/2017/12/23/b4802b8c-e67a-11e7-a65d-1ac0fd7f097e_story.html?utm_term=.e175731646d2

[Rocker Ute]

McCabe about to retire from FBI at age 49.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/facing-republican-attacks-fbis-deputy-director-plans-to-retire-early-next-year/2017/12/23/b4802b8c-e67a-11e7-a65d-1ac0fd7f097e_story.html?utm_term=.e175731646d2

Republicans are behaving badly with the heat they are putting on the FBI. From my vantage point it is just an attempt to undermine the investigation, which is just about as despicable if Trump were to fire Mueller.

[Rocker Ute]

A log on the fire. I’m posting this not because I like Trump but because I dislike Clinton and her minions.

Was the Steele Dossier the FBI’s ‘Insurance Policy’?

http://amp.nationalreview.com/article/454909/trump-russia-collusion-fbi-investigation-steele-dossier-hillary-clinton-campaign


The question these types of articles never seem to answer is why James Comey was apparently so firmly in Hillary Clinton's court as a life-long Republican and who served as Deputy AG to GWB? Further, if he was so firmly in favor of HRC as the next president, why in the world would he announce they were re-opening the investigation when it appeared there may be additional emails on Anthony Weiner's computer?

[Ma'ake]

Republicans are behaving badly with the heat they are putting on the FBI. From my vantage point it is just an attempt to undermine the investigation, which is just about as despicable if Trump were to fire Mueller.

It's high stakes maneuvering toward "high noon". McCabe is a specific threat because he could corroborate Comey's claim that Trump asked him to "let the Flynn thing go", from an obstruction of justice angle.

Maybe tit-for-tat, a political counter punch, but 2 senior aides (apparently) are claiming Trump said "all Haitians have AIDS" - take that, Mia Love! - and once Nigerians saw America, they wouldn't want to go back to their huts. The two leakers to the NYT reportedly thought the June 2017 diatribe was notable enough to convey the remarks to others, at the time. (John Kelly is probably on the mother of all mole hunts, right now.) http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-reportedly-said-haitians-have-aids-nigerians-live-in-huts-in-immigration-outburst-2017-12

Hopefully these 2 accounts become public and corroborated, ie, this isn't fake news. But politically, the claims are credible, in the eyes of the 60+% of Americans who disapprove of Trump.

How many other punches / counter-punches does Trump - or rather his team, because DJT is now doubting that he said the remarks on the Access Hollywood tape - need to worry about coming out, as they try to inoculate themselves against McCabe and whatever Mueller is going to reveal?

[UTEopia]

A log on the fire. I’m posting this not because I like Trump but because I dislike Clinton and her minions.

Was the Steele Dossier the FBI’s ‘Insurance Policy’?

http://amp.nationalreview.com/article/454909/trump-russia-collusion-fbi-investigation-steele-dossier-hillary-clinton-campaign

Reading that gave me a headache, not because I liked Hillary, but because it is so poorly written.

[Ma'ake]

Wow.

Hugh Hewitt, on Meet the Press, described how a presidential candidate's role is to bring different tribes within the party together, using Tim Kaine as an example of somebody who would not be able to do that for Democrats, and named Kamala Harris as somebody who could do that, for Democrats.

(If that doesn't scream out for a comment by LA, I don't know what would.)

[concerned]

There is fake news, and there are alternative facts

But this is Festivus sacrilege. I am going to air my grievances right now.

RIP Frank Costanza (unless you are still alive)


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DRyaaGEWAAUE30J.jpg

[NorthwestUteFan]

That is a bad Photoshop.

[NorthwestUteFan]

That is a bad Photoshop.Actually, on second thought it is a pretty good Photoshop and they matched the font and shading. But it still is a Photoshop and isn't out of the realm of crazy things she would say.

[LA Ute]

Wow.

Hugh Hewitt, on Meet the Press, described how a presidential candidate's role is to bring different tribes within the party together, using Tim Kaine as an example of somebody who would not be able to do that for Democrats, and named Kamala Harris as somebody who could do that, for Democrats.

(If that doesn't scream out for a comment by LA, I don't know what would.)

Hugh is almost always wrong about such things but who knows? As I have said before, her record so far has been very left of center, but she could move to the center and the commentariat and big news media (except for Fox News) would help her do that. I'm hoping for Kamala Harris vs. Nikki Haley for POTUS someday. Two women of Indian descent. Would Kamala emhasize her Indian/Tamil or her AA descent? Probably the latter. Nikki identifies herself today as a Christian, but attends both Sikh and Methodist services. Harris states she is a Baptist. What a fun election that would be.

[U-Ute]

I don’t get this ranting about the FBI being commies thing.

First of all, we all know that the Enforcement Establishment had always been a liberal bastion. /sarcasm

But even if it is true, does it really matter? After all, they aren’t the arbiters of justice. In the end they just collect evidence and build a story and it is the judiciary (or Congress in the case of impeachment) that have the final say.

If he is truly innocent, he should welcome all of this.




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[Ma'ake]

Hugh is almost always wrong about such things but who knows? As I have said before, her record so far has been very left of center, but she could move to the center and the commentariat and big news media (except for Fox News) would help her do that. I'm hoping for Kamala Harris vs. Nikki Haley for POTUS someday. Two women of Indian descent. Would Kamala emhasize her Indian/Tamil or her AA descent? Probably the latter. Nikki identifies herself today as a Christian, but attends both Sikh and Methodist services. Harris states she is a Baptist. What a fun election that would be.

I didn't know Kamala's mom was Tamil. I work with a lot of Tamilians, from Tamil Nadu (and adjacent states) in India, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, we even had a Tamilian from Germany (family was refugees from the civil war in Sri Lanka). I thought Kamala's father is Jamaican(?) Regardless, she would need to run as an American, the daughter/descendent of immigrants, the same lineage 99% of the rest of us have.

She seems smart enough to know she would have to make a significant turn toward the middle, but it's a long way away, who knows what the political landscape will look like by then. My hunch is the #MeToo energy will have dissipated a bit by then, but the Millennials will really be coming of age politically.

[LA Ute]

Kay Coles James just became President of the Heritage Foundation. She succeeds Jim DeMint, who took Heritage to a very conservative social issues-oriented place, quite different from what the think tank had been. (Back in the 1990s, a Heritage guy, Stuart Butler, came up with the individual mandate concept for health care policy, which DeMint thought was borderline socialism.) It’ll be interesting to see what Ms. James does there now. Some conservatives have already raised concerns about her because she worked in one of the Bush administrations (horrors!) and because in her acceptance of the Heritage job she mentioned her plan to be “inclusive.” Obviously the place is going to hell in a handbasket.

I’m an African-American Woman. Here’s My Advice to Conservatives Wooing My Community.

http://dailysignal.com/2016/08/29/im-an-african-american-woman-heres-my-advice-to-conservatives-wooing-my-community/

[Ma'ake]

Kay Coles James just became President of the Heritage Foundation. She succeeds Jim DeMint, who took Heritage to a very conservative social issues-oriented place, quite different from what the think tank had been. (Back in the 1990s, a Heritage guy, Stuart Butler, came up with the individual mandate concept for health care policy, which DeMint thought was borderline socialism.) It’ll be interesting to see what Ms. James does there now. Some conservatives have already raised concerns about her because she worked in one of the Bush administrations (horrors!) and because in her acceptance of the Heritage job she mentioned her plan to be “inclusive.” Obviously the place is going to hell in a handbasket.

I’m an African-American Woman. Here’s My Advice to Conservatives Wooing My Community.

http://dailysignal.com/2016/08/29/im-an-african-american-woman-heres-my-advice-to-conservatives-wooing-my-community/

My hunch is Kay Cole James is going to get the Michael Steele treatment - ie, appreciated as a token within Heritage, mostly ignored outside it.

I've seen the problems she speaks of in the AA community - they're pretty acute. But the source of the problem really hasn't been the conservatives favorite excuse (Lyndon Johnson's War on Poverty, Affirmative Action, social programs).

The problem is actually much simpler, in my opinion.

After Civil Rights, those African Americans who were bright and ambitious escaped the segregated circumstances they started in (including my wife, who was in a segregated school 9 years after Brown v Board of Education). What is left in the hood is incredibly concentrated dysfunction, highly resistant to efforts to address it. For example, Betsy DeVos' school choice drive in Michigan has had zero positive effect.

You see the same stratification phenomenon within families. Among my wife's 7 siblings, 2 took their educational opportunities and eventually became C-class officers of larger corporations and one a business owner, a few ventured out and came back, comfortable in the low expectations of the hood, and one has been in and out of prison.

It's much like you see within any other families, white, black, Latino, Asian. Among siblings, some are quite successful and have achieved a lot, some have been "average", some have seriously struggled. It's like the old TV drama from the 70s, "Rich Man, Poor Man", about the divergent paths of two brothers.

The key question is how do we identify and help those at risk early, and guide them to have higher expectations of themselves, help them make better life choices. I don't think there are any easy answers.

Ms James' appeals within the Heritage Foundation to stimulate better outcomes within the African American community are going to run into the current alarming, widespread problem the nation faces: Opioid abuse, which is responsible for Americans' life expectancy dropping for two consecutive years, and is a problem that disproportionately affects white people.

The current opioid issue, which is manifested by higher mortality rates for working class whites (while Latinos and African Americans with even lower economic statistics continue to see slightly improving mortality rates) will be "felt" within the conservative community as a tacit tribal issue much more important than trying to make inroads with African American voters.

(What is yet to be seen is whether having a white face back in the WH will arrest the white mortality decline, as the recent stats are for 2016. There is some reason to think the positive reinforcement of seeing somebody who looks like you do at the helm buoys battered souls, but the economic plight of lower middle class / working class Americans is still on a long term decline, from technology & international competition. Opioids may be a drug that is a bigger issue for those of European ancestry. Back in the my wife's neighborhood, it's certainly not the drug of choice.)

[Ma'ake]

The SL Trib's naming of Orrin Hatch as Utahn of the Year was picked up by The Hill: http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/366449-utah-paper-tells-hatch-to-call-it-a-career-in-blistering-editorial

What The Hill didn't include was the Trib's insinuation that Hatch's favorable treatment of Big Pharma helped fuel the Opioid crisis:


An investigation by The Washington Post and CBS’ “60 Minutes” (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ex-dea-agent-opioid-crisis-fueled-by-drug-industry-and-congress/)
found that a law, which Hatch played a key role in, helped fuel the opioid crisis across the country by hamstringing the Drug Enforcement Administration from cracking down on large-scale shipments of the drug.
http://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2017/12/25/the-salt-lake-tribune-names-sen-orrin-hatch-who-urged-trump-to-trim-bears-ears-and-guided-a-tax-overhaul-through-congress-as-utahn-of-the-year/

[sancho]

The SL Trib's naming of Orrin Hatch as Utahn of the Year

This is dumb. If an award is supposed to be an honor 98% of the time, make it an honor 100% of the time.

[Ma'ake]

This is dumb. If an award is supposed to be an honor 98% of the time, make it an honor 100% of the time.

It seems like the Trib's attempt at a kiss-of-death for Hatch. That won't be going in any campaign literature as an achievement.

(It's not as bad as their tortured endorsement of George W. Bush for re-election in 2004, where the Editorial Board seemed to get undercut by the owner (Dean Singleton) at the last minute. That was really weird.)

[Scorcho]

It seems like the Trib's attempt at a kiss-of-death for Hatch. That won't be going in any campaign literature as an achievement.

(It's not as bad as their tortured endorsement of George W. Bush for re-election in 2004, where the Editorial Board seemed to get undercut by the owner (Dean Singleton) at the last minute. That was really weird.)

CNN has picked it up as well

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/26/politics/orrin-hatch-utah-salt-lake-tribune/index.html

[LA Ute]

My hunch is Kay Cole James is going to get the Michael Steele treatment - ie, appreciated as a token within Heritage, mostly ignored outside it.
I've seen the problems she speaks of in the AA community - they're pretty acute. But the source of the problem really hasn't been the conservatives favorite excuse (Lyndon Johnson's War on Poverty, Affirmative Action, social programs).

The problem is actually much simpler, in my opinion.

“Token” is a loaded word and implies not only extreme disingenuousness on the part of Heritage, but also a whiff of racism. I doubt you meant it that way. Heritage is a serious organization, in my experience. I was on a panel there once and spent time with the guys who really run the place. The DeMint era there was a departure for Heritage from a long history of sober and responsible thinking and scholarship. His departure was involuntary, I believe. We’ll see how James does. She looks like a return to Heritage’s roots.

[NorthwestUteFan]

“Token” is a loaded word and implies not only extreme disingenuousness on the part of Heritage, but also a whiff of racism.
You are our token neoliberal on this board, so you have that going for you.

[LA Ute]

You are our token neoliberal on this board, so you have that going for you.

And I appreciate the inclusiveness you have all embraced by allowing me be here. I’m grateful for it every time I post.

[U-Ute]

The "Narcissist" example from Coaching The Toxic Leader (https://hbr.org/2014/04/coaching-the-toxic-leader) certainly feels familiar.

And not just because of LA Ute.

[LA Ute]

This is a very interesting piece by the NY Times’ former public editor who is now the WaPo’s media columnist. She still shows some blind spots but is refreshingly open to criticism.

Polls show Americans distrust the media. But talk to them, and it’s a very different story.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/magazine/polls-show-americans-distrust-the-media-but-talk-to-them-and-its-a-very-different-story/2017/12/27/ed9bbabe-ce3b-11e7-81bc-c55a220c8cbe_story.html?tid=ss_fb&utm_term=.9d977e1f09eb

[Ma'ake]

“Token” is a loaded word and implies not only extreme disingenuousness on the part of Heritage, but also a whiff of racism. I doubt you meant it that way. Heritage is a serious organization, in my experience. I was on a panel there once and spent time with the guys who really run the place. The DeMint era there was a departure for Heritage from a long history of sober and responsible thinking and scholarship. His departure was involuntary, I believe. We’ll see how James does. She looks like a return to Heritage’s roots.

Wait a minute - "roots" is a racially tinged word, too!

Seriously, I know Heritage is/was a respected think tank, they came up with the complicated framework that was the response to Hillarycare and became a foundation of RomneyCare... until they got thrown under the bus (along with Romneycare and Mitt himself) because of the similarities to Obamacare. I forgot that Jim DeMint was the head of Heritage.

How does Heritage fit into whatever is left of the conservative think tank ecosystem is an interesting question. There's the Koch Brothers and their growing influence... does anyone else even matter, on the right? I see thinkers like George Will and William Kristol recoiling in horror at what has happened to the Republican party's once proud intellectual tradition.

Then today I read this funny headline from Alan Dershowitz: "I am not Trump's advocate!" http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/366829-dershowitz-on-trump-i-am-not-his-advocate-im-an-advocate-for

[LA Ute]

Wait a minute - "roots" is a racially tinged word, too!

Seriously, I know Heritage is/was a respected think tank, they came up with the complicated framework that was the response to Hillarycare and became a foundation of RomneyCare... until they got thrown under the bus (along with Romneycare and Mitt himself) because of the similarities to Obamacare. I forgot that Jim DeMint was the head of Heritage.

How does Heritage fit into whatever is left of the conservative think tank ecosystem is an interesting question. There's the Koch Brothers and their growing influence... does anyone else even matter, on the right? I see thinkers like George Will and William Kristol recoiling in horror at what has happened to the Republican party's once proud intellectual tradition.

Then today I read this funny headline from Alan Dershowitz: "I am not Trump's advocate!" http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/366829-dershowitz-on-trump-i-am-not-his-advocate-im-an-advocate-for

What I can say is that Heritage is pretty much modeled after the Reagan tradition, and some of its graybeards are former Reagan types like Ed Meese. I’m not a Reaganite but neither are Trump and his followers. Still, Reagan and his people at least had a clearly expressed and coherent philosophy.

[Ma'ake]

One key battle is shaping up to be Amazon's Jeff Bezos vs Trump, who is pushing for the Postal Service to raise their rates for making shipments for Amazon:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-amazon-com/trump-wants-postal-service-to-charge-much-more-for-amazon-shipments-idUSKBN1EN15O


Trump has taken on Amazon before, he detests Bezos' Washington Post, etc.

Does this lead to a much more aggressive strategy of demonizing Amazon to buttress Trump's blue-collar base?

The economist in me is skeptical that Joe Sixpack is ready to join Trump in attacking Amazon in a big show of solidarity for retail workers. Unless something hits them directly, most people appreciate greater convenience and lower prices.

The postal service isn't exactly a sympathetic cause - to most people they're a notch better than the DMV at best, but still an example of government being horrible at doing something, even though I see USPS trucks making Amazon deliveries - even on Sunday, even in Bountiful Utah! - much more than FedEx and UPS.

(As a side note, I'm also seeing Amazon deliveries happening by what appear to be free-lancers who drive their own cars. One delivery came from a geezer in a minivan with a bunch of grandkids in the back. That kind of competition could backfire on Trump's drive to get more money out of USPS "last mile" Amazon deliveries.)

Is Trump's cadre of cheerleaders - Hannity, Rush, Ingraham, etc - ready to start demonizing Amazon? I think most of them probably use Amazon extensively, since they don't want to go to the store. It would be easy for them to be exposed as hypocrites.

I think this is tempest in a teapot...

[Ma'ake]

This is one of the best (short) articles I've read that describes the interplay between economics and politics, and how the economic indicators explain the political populism we're seeing both on the right and the left: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4134445-beginning-look-lot-like-1937?ifp=0

(I hope the author is wrong that we're in an economic period that is an ominous mimic of 1937, but the quantitative analysis and indicators cited are compelling.)

For those allergic to quantitative analysis & economic graphs, my apologies, but the text does a good job of describing the key indicators making the point.

Also, a really good definition of populism:


A social phenomenon that arises from the common man being fed up with 1) wealth and opportunity gaps, 2) perceived cultural threats from those with different values in the country and from outsiders, 3) the “establishment elites” in positions of power, and 4) government not working effectively for them.



It's (always) unclear how things will play out, but there's a precedent for hoping it won't get to the same excruciating upheaval we saw in the last part of the Great Depression (only ended by the massive mobilization and government spending required by a major war): The Great Depression was really badly handled by government policy, where the Great Recession was handled by Bernanke about as well as it could be.

Great quote: "If history doesn't always exactly repeat itself, it does rhyme"

[UTEopia]

.


(As a side note, I'm also seeing Amazon deliveries happening by what appear to be free-lancers who drive their own cars. One delivery came from a geezer in a minivan with a bunch of grandkids in the back. That kind of competition could backfire on Trump's drive to get more money out of USPS "last mile" Amazon deliveries.)



I asked one of those drivers about it and he said - think uber for commercial deliveries.

[Diehard Ute]

I asked one of those drivers about it and he said - think uber for commercial deliveries.

Yup. They’re independent contractors.

Lower overhead for Amazon as they cut out middle men.

Salt Lake’s amazon facility is being built. Sometime this year they’ll have an 800,000 square foot facility, same day delivery for a lot of items is coming and those contractors will likely be key


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[Ma'ake]

Yup. They’re independent contractors.

Lower overhead for Amazon as they cut out middle men.

Salt Lake’s amazon facility is being built. Sometime this year they’ll have an 800,000 square foot facility, same day delivery for a lot of items is coming and those contractors will likely be key.

Uber, these Amazon contract drivers and all the insanely cheap stuff we get from China/Honduras/Bangladesh at Walmart (and just about every other retailer) are all way under a sustainable cost model for American workers, much like the Walmart workers who are on Medicaid, food stamps.

The average cost per mile to operate a car is $0.52 (maybe down to the middle 30s in cents for really economical cars), and that's just the operating costs, not salary. When I was a kid we bought Levis for $25 or so... back then. That would be more like $80 now. I bought "Wrangler Authentic, since 1947" jeans from Amazon for $17, with shipping, "Made in Mexico of US cotton" (a NAFTA collaboration).

How much of the $17 I paid Amazon got to the grandpa in a minivan who delivered it? He just needed some extra cash flow, probably putting off maintenance, tires, etc, on the minivan. (No doubt he had multiple deliveries in a well thought out area, with the GPS on the smart phone keeping him from getting too angry at the grandkids).

[Diehard Ute]

Uber, these Amazon contract drivers and all the insanely cheap stuff we get from China/Honduras/Bangladesh at Walmart (and just about every other retailer) are all way under a sustainable cost model for American workers, much like the Walmart workers who are on Medicaid, food stamps.

The average cost per mile to operate a car is $0.52 (maybe down to the middle 30s in cents for really economical cars), and that's just the operating costs, not salary. When I was a kid we bought Levis for $25 or so... back then. That would be more like $80 now. I bought "Wrangler Authentic, since 1947" jeans from Amazon for $17, with shipping, "Made in Mexico of US cotton" (a NAFTA collaboration).

How much of the $17 I paid Amazon got to the grandpa in a minivan who delivered it? He just needed some extra cash flow, probably putting off maintenance, tires, etc, on the minivan. (No doubt he had multiple deliveries in a well thought out area, with the GPS on the smart phone keeping him from getting too angry at the grandkids).

Most of the contract drivers do it as a second job.

I recently took a Lyft home. My driver is now driving full time.

He started out just because he was in need of some cash, never planned on doing it full time, but he said he’s better off now than with his old job.

Amazon advertises the pay for the drivers at $18-$25/hour.

A blogger who surveyed 1,150 Uber/Lyft drivers found their Pay was $15.68 and $17.50/hour respectively, not including tips.




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[Rocker Ute]

So I’ve actually done two Amazon delivery routes. My nephew going to college does it and was telling me about it and so I had to see how it worked (because I’m actually kind of a junkie for process and automation type stuff).

It is pretty phenomenal. It is all driven and automated by their app. They assign blocks that you can pick up that fits your schedule. Typically the come in 3-5 hour delivery blocks at $18/hour. You are an independent contractor and so they pay you that full amount and don’t deduct taxes.

So you show up, check in by scanning a QR code, they give to you a cart, you scan the packages and go. The GPS plans the most efficient route and when you arrive you scan the package to deliver, drop it on the doorstep and take a picture and then it tells you where the next package goes.

My first route was a 3 hour one and took me about 2 hours and 15 minutes because I wasn’t very smart about it. My second was a 4 hour route and took me 1.5 hours because I got smart.

The packages have zone numbers on them. I figured out that if you load them in order then you don’t waste time trying to find packages and you can do it quick.

I taught my nephew how to do that and he says he now can usually do it in about half the time if not 1/3 of the assigned block. That means he makes about $36/hour doing it.

I was fascinated enough about whether this was a good economically for the deliverer that I created a spreadsheet for my nephew to track his mileage, actual time spent and pay. If you can do it in half the time it is a good thing. Most routes my nephew does are 30-40 miles. Using the standard deduction of 53.5 cents a mile as the real expense means about $15-$20 per block. So about $25-$30 an hour when it is all said and done. He drives and old Honda Civic and so his actual cost is likely much lower.

A caveat, if you want to use Amazon as your primary income it won’t work. It is great for supplemental income or for college students. I saw a lot of cab drivers doing it actually and my nephew says most there do Uber and Amazon. The reason it won’t work is it isn’t like you can put in 8-10 hours a day doing it. You typically get one 4 hour block for the day, so essentially only working two hours. If you finish early you can’t get another block until your block is over.

Anyway, sorry for the nerdery on this, but it is pretty amazing stuff. For metro areas Amazon could absolutely do away with UPS, USPS, FedEx, etc. Raising rates on Amazon would just put the nail in the coffin for that.


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[Diehard Ute]

So I’ve actually done two Amazon delivery routes. My nephew going to college does it and was telling me about it and so I had to see how it worked (because I’m actually kind of a junkie for process and automation type stuff).

It is pretty phenomenal. It is all driven and automated by their app. They assign blocks that you can pick up that fits your schedule. Typically the come in 3-5 hour delivery blocks at $18/hour. You are an independent contractor and so they pay you that full amount and don’t deduct taxes.

So you show up, check in by scanning a QR code, they give to you a cart, you scan the packages and go. The GPS plans the most efficient route and when you arrive you scan the package to deliver, drop it on the doorstep and take a picture and then it tells you where the next package goes.

My first route was a 3 hour one and took me about 2 hours and 15 minutes because I wasn’t very smart about it. My second was a 4 hour route and took me 1.5 hours because I got smart.

The packages have zone numbers on them. I figured out that if you load them in order then you don’t waste time trying to find packages and you can do it quick.

I taught my nephew how to do that and he says he now can usually do it in about half the time if not 1/3 of the assigned block. That means he makes about $36/hour doing it.

I was fascinated enough about whether this was a good economically for the deliverer that I created a spreadsheet for my nephew to track his mileage, actual time spent and pay. If you can do it in half the time it is a good thing. Most routes my nephew does are 30-40 miles. Using the standard deduction of 53.5 cents a mile as the real expense means about $15-$20 per block. So about $25-$30 an hour when it is all said and done. He drives and old Honda Civic and so his actual cost is likely much lower.

A caveat, if you want to use Amazon as your primary income it won’t work. It is great for supplemental income or for college students. I saw a lot of cab drivers doing it actually and my nephew says most there do Uber and Amazon. The reason it won’t work is it isn’t like you can put in 8-10 hours a day doing it. You typically get one 4 hour block for the day, so essentially only working two hours. If you finish early you can’t get another block until your block is over.

Anyway, sorry for the nerdery on this, but it is pretty amazing stuff. For metro areas Amazon could absolutely do away with UPS, USPS, FedEx, etc. Raising rates on Amazon would just put the nail in the coffin for that.


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Very interesting. Thanks.

With the new Amazon and UPS facilities in SL things will get interesting. You combine those two buildings it’s 1,600,000 square feet.

Amazon is literally across the street from Fed Ex and a 5 minute drive from UPS.




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[Ma'ake]

So I’ve actually done two Amazon delivery routes. My nephew going to college does it and was telling me about it and so I had to see how it worked (because I’m actually kind of a junkie for process and automation type stuff).

It is pretty phenomenal. It is all driven and automated by their app. They assign blocks that you can pick up that fits your schedule. Typically the come in 3-5 hour delivery blocks at $18/hour. You are an independent contractor and so they pay you that full amount and don’t deduct taxes.
...



For metro areas Amazon could absolutely do away with UPS, USPS, FedEx, etc. Raising rates on Amazon would just put the nail in the coffin for that.


The Amazon free-lancer I saw yesterday was driving an Audi A8, an older gentleman with his car stuffed with packages. Interesting...

Hunch - if the USPS is losing money on the Amazon deliveries, it's probably due to employee benefits, like health insurance.

The Trump tweet feels like an instance of him finding out they're losing money on Amazon deliveries, prompting him to take on Bezos in a twitter attack. (Certainly USPS brass know if they raise rates, they'll lose business.)

My sense is the Amazon delivery landscape is pretty fluid - I see fewer UPS and FedEx deliveries than I used to, and now see USPS Amazon deliveries blended in with the regular mail run, along with the free-lancers.

The same-day delivery capability Diehard references, along with the Whole Foods grocery side of Amazon, will do further damage to regular retail... but it may also cut down on air pollution along the Wasatch Front, as fewer people start cold cars to drive 1-4 miles to the store, where the delivery vehicles have warm engines operating efficiently and polluting less.

[Ma'ake]

With the new Amazon and UPS facilities in SL things will get interesting. You combine those two buildings it’s 1,600,000 square feet.

Amazon is literally across the street from Fed Ex and a 5 minute drive from UPS.


I'm connecting dots here and jumping topics, but assuming UPS & FedEx (and USPS) are facing wage/benefit pressure from the free-lancers, this adds pressure toward healthcare reform. As GM demonstrated a few years ago as they moved manufacturing from plants in the US north to Canada because of healthcare costs, many businesses are increasingly finding the benefits aspect of wages to be cost prohibitive.

Ironically, Intermountain (Health Care) has a new CEO who is on a campaign to dramatically re-invent how they operate. The word is a LOT of people are going to be riffed, and at least in the IT part of IHC, they intend to keep the architecture and security groups, with everyone else becoming contractors. (We're getting really, really good applicants looking to jump off that ship, right now. The IT placement folks in SLC are really getting a workout, from different angles.)

IHC shedding employees will certainly help bend the healthcare cost curve downward (in Utah), though it needs to come down quite a bit more to allow non-insured workers to be able to afford healthcare. CVS Pharmacy acquired Aetna (the health insurer), so there is some serious consolidation going on in healthcare, vertically, nationally. They may be able to stave off a push toward a Single Payer model that a resurgent Democratic party would be pushing in the early 20s.


Fascinating times as an economic & political observer. Probably not so much fun as a participant.

[Diehard Ute]

The Amazon free-lancer I saw yesterday was driving an Audi A8, an older gentleman with his car stuffed with packages. Interesting...

Hunch - if the USPS is losing money on the Amazon deliveries, it's probably due to employee benefits, like health insurance.

The Trump tweet feels like an instance of him finding out they're losing money on Amazon deliveries, prompting him to take on Bezos in a twitter attack. (Certainly USPS brass know if they raise rates, they'll lose business.)

My sense is the Amazon delivery landscape is pretty fluid - I see fewer UPS and FedEx deliveries than I used to, and now see USPS Amazon deliveries blended in with the regular mail run, along with the free-lancers.

The same-day delivery capability Diehard references, along with the Whole Foods grocery side of Amazon, will do further damage to regular retail... but it may also cut down on air pollution along the Wasatch Front, as fewer people start cold cars to drive 1-4 miles to the store, where the delivery vehicles have warm engines operating efficiently and polluting less.

UPS just sent a record for packages delivered during the holiday season.

One of the big changes is UPS and FedEx have their ‘hybrid’ model, they move the package, but deliver it to the post office for final delivery

Reality is usps isn’t losing money on package deliveries. It’s the only area they make money, they just aren’t making as much money as they could be (and some think should be).


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[NorthwestUteFan]

.

Ironically, Intermountain (Health Care) has a new CEO who is on a campaign to dramatically re-invent how they operate. The word is a LOT of people are going to be riffed, and at least in the IT part of IHC, they intend to keep the architecture and security groups, with everyone else becoming contractors.


Fascinating times as an economic & political observer. Probably not so much fun as a participant.

This seems like an insane move, after IHC's equally insane move to build their own shitty medical data/billing/charting software for billions of dollars rather than just buying licenses to the best, easiest to use, and most widespread product (Epic). They will be in desperate need of high-quality IT people to diagnose, customize, and upgrade their program from here on out to suit the needs of their providers. And it will never be anywhere as close to modern and up-to-date as the professional software products are, since those programs are already managing the medical records for hundreds of millions of people across the nation.

On a bigger view, the big problem with driving prices to the bottom is the savings usually tends to come out of employees' salaries and benefits/retirement. And there is little market pressure to cause companies to plow savings back into their employees, as most cost savings will instead go toward stock dividends or schemes to raise stock valuation (e.g. stock buybacks). These are short-term outcomes.

This is precisely the opposite of what the economy needs to expand over the long term. More people at the bottom of the scale need to have more expendable money so they can buy more things. They need to be healthy and they need to be educated.

In a few decades time there is a very good chance that most of our current jobs will be obsolete, whether through shipping manufacturing/customer service jobs overseas, robots replacing manual workers (truck/cab drivers, retail point-of-sale, fast food) or AI (diagnostic jobs in finance, law, medicine, real estate, engineering, etc will be heavily impacted). The entire economy will operate with significantly fewer workers, and finding employment will be exponentially harder than it is now.

We are eventually going to have a serious look our own American brand of single-payer healthcare, retirement, etc, and probably some form of a universal basic income. Because without those things, the masses of people will not be able to feed their families and desperate situations will likely lead to desperate actions and/or significant civil unrest, civil war, etc.

[LA Ute]

Extremely interesting piece by lefty pundit Peter Beinart:

Breaking Faith
The culture war over religious morality has faded; in its place is something much worse.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/04/breaking-faith/517785/?utm_source=twb

[LA Ute]

It’s going to be an interesting 2018.

Partisans, Wielding Money, Begin Seeking to Exploit Harassment Claims

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/12/31/us/politics/sexual-harassment-politics-partisanship.html?referer=https://t.co/im1iT36tYS

[Ma'ake]

This seems like an insane move, after IHC's equally insane move to build their own shitty medical data/billing/charting software for billions of dollars rather than just buying licenses to the best, easiest to use, and most widespread product (Epic). They will be in desperate need of high-quality IT people to diagnose, customize, and upgrade their program from here on out to suit the needs of their providers. And it will never be anywhere as close to modern and up-to-date as the professional software products are, since those programs are already managing the medical records for hundreds of millions of people across the nation.

On a bigger view, the big problem with driving prices to the bottom is the savings usually tends to come out of employees' salaries and benefits/retirement. And there is little market pressure to cause companies to plow savings back into their employees, as most cost savings will instead go toward stock dividends or schemes to raise stock valuation (e.g. stock buybacks). These are short-term outcomes.

This is precisely the opposite of what the economy needs to expand over the long term. More people at the bottom of the scale need to have more expendable money so they can buy more things. They need to be healthy and they need to be educated.

In a few decades time there is a very good chance that most of our current jobs will be obsolete, whether through shipping manufacturing/customer service jobs overseas, robots replacing manual workers (truck/cab drivers, retail point-of-sale, fast food) or AI (diagnostic jobs in finance, law, medicine, real estate, engineering, etc will be heavily impacted). The entire economy will operate with significantly fewer workers, and finding employment will be exponentially harder than it is now.

We are eventually going to have a serious look our own American brand of single-payer healthcare, retirement, etc, and probably some form of a universal basic income. Because without those things, the masses of people will not be able to feed their families and desperate situations will likely lead to desperate actions and/or significant civil unrest, civil war, etc.

Great post.

As for your last points about technological disruption of jobs, I agree, and though new jobs will appear, with the rapid impact of technological changes there's an increasing chance that the disruptions will be broad enough to lead to serious social instability. In the past, technological disruptions weren't as broad, or frequent.

Combined with the "Breaking Faith" article referenced by LA, it's pretty clear a wide swath of Americans are losing faith in America, itself. Are churches the victims of economic turbulence for common people? (This article is excellent, but has so many points and contra indicative points it deserves a lot more analysis.)

Today I told my son about our ancestor who was a delegate to the Utah State Constitutional Convention, and was also the grand master of the Masonic Temple in SLC. Before TV came along, people belonged to fraternal organizations to pass the time, including all the various Masons offshoots, the Moose lodge, Elk lodge, etc. Now we have youth sports to bring us together (and adult sports) but they don't promote explicit cultural values like the fraternal organizations did, ...and like religions have done.

The Breaking Faith article accurately describes how people under economic distress retreat into tribalism, which is reflected and amplified at the national level in our politics. If the rise of the Nones in our religiosity is replaced by following Hannity and Rachel Maddow in the political space, we're missing common ingredients we really need to keep to be a viable nation.

[U-Ute]

Bannon torches Trump and his cadre in his book.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/03/donald-trump-russia-steve-bannon-michael-wolff?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_reddit_is_fun

Some tidbits:


Bannon, (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/31/steve-bannon-may-have-lost-the-battle-in-alabama-but-his-gop-civil-war-goes-on) speaking to author Michael Wolff, warned that the investigation into alleged collusion with the Kremlin will focus on money laundering and predicted: “They’re going to crack Don Junior like an egg on national TV.”



The meeting was revealed by the New York Times (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jul/11/donald-trump-jr-email-chain-russia-hillary-clinton) in July last year, prompting Trump Jr to say no consequential material was produced. Soon after, Wolff writes, Bannon remarked mockingly: “The three senior guys in the campaign thought it was a good idea to meet with a foreign government inside Trump Tower in the conference room on the 25th floor – with no lawyers. They didn’t have any lawyers.
“Even if you thought that this was not treasonous, or unpatriotic, or bad shit, and I happen to think it’s all of that, you should have called the FBI immediately.”



Bannon has criticised Trump’s decision to fire Comey (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/steve-bannon-says-firing-of-james-comey-was-biggest-mistake-in-modern-political-history/). In Wolff’s book, obtained by the Guardian ahead of publication from a bookseller in New England, he suggests White House hopes for a quick end to the Mueller investigation are gravely misplaced.
“You realise where this is going,” he is quoted as saying. “This is all about money laundering. Mueller chose [senior prosecutor Andrew] Weissmann (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/31/us/politics/andrew-weissmann-mueller.html) first and he is a money-laundering guy. Their path to fucking Trump goes right through Paul Manafort, Don Jr and Jared Kushner … It’s as plain as a hair on your face.”

[LA Ute]

Bannon torches Trump and his cadre in his book.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/03/donald-trump-russia-steve-bannon-michael-wolff?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_reddit_is_fun

Some tidbits:

Wow. Bannon trashing Trump. Such a pair of admirable men. How do we decide who we're cheering for in this one?

:snack:

[U-Ute]

Wow. Bannon trashing Trump. Such a pair of admirable men. How do we decide who we're cheering for in this one?

:snack:

I think in this case we're rooting for a bit of mutual destruction.

[concerned]

Bannon is out to destroy Jared and Don Jr. This is fun to watch.

[concerned]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DSpgpeyVMAAMcS1.jpg

[LA Ute]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DSpgpeyVMAAMcS1.jpg

Was it you who underlined the good parts?

[concerned]

Was it you who underlined the good parts?

Katy Tur, at least it was her tweet

[LA Ute]

Katy Tur, at least it was her tweet

Of course it was Katy.

[NorthwestUteFan]

Bannon is out to destroy Jared and Don Jr. This is fun to watch.It seems he knows something, and is trying to put distance between himself and those who are prison-bound.

[LA Ute]

It seems he knows something, and is trying to put distance between himself and those who are prison-bound.

I love my liberal Ute friends here, but do you guys realize that you're treating Steve Bannon -- Steve Bannon! -- as some kind of whistleblower? To hear you all talk, Bannon was a lying fascist pig, and now he's telling the truth? How can anyone believe anything either Bannon or Trump says?

Again, I ask this question with love in my heart.

[concerned]

I love my liberal Ute friends here, but do you guys realize that you're treating Steve Bannon -- Steve Bannon! -- as some kind of whistleblower? To hear you all talk, Bannon was a lying fascist pig, and now he's telling the truth? How can anyone believe anything either Bannon or Trump says?

Again, I ask this question with love in my heart.

I havent said anything about Bannon's veracity. I have no idea if he is telling the truth or not. They likely are all pathological. I just love them all turning on each other. According to the author, the book has a lot more sources than Bannon, and much of what he writes was corroborated by several sources.

Do i think Trump barely reads and is semi illiterate? Of course. Dont you? Do i believe Trump thought he was going to lose and melania cried when he won? Yep, that has basically bee reported elsewhere.

Bannon said something to the effect that the Russia trail runs through Deutsche Bank, and seemed to be saying that there was collusion through Kushner. I suspect that if it is true, Mueller will find it.

Do I think there is a chance that Don Jr. took the attendees at the June 16 meeting upstairs to meet Trump? Sure. Bannon sure wants to take down Kushner and Don Jr. I wish him godspeed.

[LA Ute]

I havent said anything about Bannon's veracity. I have no idea if he is telling the truth or not. They likely are all pathological. I just love them all turning on each other.

OK, I do too.


Bannon said something to the effect that the Russia trail runs through Deutsche Bank, and seemed to be saying that there was collusion through Kushner. I suspect that if it is true, Mueller will find it.

I know I risk my friend Diehard accusing me of defending Trump here, but isn't Mueller's investigation limited to Trump campaign collusion with Russian government during the 2016 campaign? Bannon is talking about money laundering dating back to long before 2016. I'm honestly a little confused.

[NorthwestUteFan]

What Bannon is saying is the Fusion GPS group uncovered deep money laundering going back decades and amounting well into the hundreds of millions of dollars, and fully involving the Trump and Kushner families, and that the ties run deep into Russian oligarchy/mafia. Much of this money was frozen internationally through the Magnitsky Act, named for the Russian billionaire who was (allegedly) murdered by the Putin regime after he tried to drop a dime on international money laundering.

Bannon is a despicable character but he is a well educated man and a former Naval officer. He has to know well enough (from being in the room during that meeting at Trump Tower) that Russians sought influence to 1) end US sanctions on Russia over Crimea (to free up the multi-trillion dollar Exxon/Rosneft pipeline project), and to end the Magnitsky Act (Russia banned the foreign adoption of orphans in retaliation for the Act, hence the reason for Don Jr wanting to discuss 'adoptions'). Don't forget, one of the items listed in the Steele Dossier/Fusion GPS research was the apparent transfer of approx 15% of Rosneft (nationalised Russian oil company) to private banks in the Cayman Islands roughly around the same time.

So this whole thing may have begun as an investigation into Russian influence in the election, but it stumbled into an enormous scheme. The Panama Papers and Paradise Papers leaks will all play into this. And Mueller already has the Deutchebank and other foreign bank records showing the money trails.

If we are lucky, very many people will go to prison over this entire mess. I just hope the dam breaks before the Mad Bomber in the White House taunts an equally mad man in North Korea to do something very stupid and we a end up killing tens of millions of people.

[LA Ute]

“...Bannon serves his own ambition when he offers up material with which to take down Trump. That should be a reason to mistrust him, but if you hate Trump and want him destroyed, you welcome Bannon, the man you once loathed. Should liberals allow their anti-Trump passion to speed Bannon along? Maybe they think that Bannon is so ugly and ridiculous and obviously evil that he could never get very far if he decides to run for President, but it’s that kind of thinking that let Trump get so much traction that he could not be stopped.”

http://althouse.blogspot.com/2018/01/amid-firestorm-over-michael-wolffs.html?m=1

[concerned]

“...Bannon serves his own ambition when he offers up material with which to take down Trump. That should be a reason to mistrust him, but if you hate Trump and want him destroyed, you welcome Bannon, the man you once loathed. Should liberals allow their anti-Trump passion to speed Bannon along? Maybe they think that Bannon is so ugly and ridiculous and obviously evil that he could never get very far if he decides to run for President, but it’s that kind of thinking that let Trump get so much traction that he could not be stopped.”

http://althouse.blogspot.com/2018/01/amid-firestorm-over-michael-wolffs.html?m=1

Its not binary; you can loathe Trump and Bannon at the same time. Trump made this Faustian bargain in hiring and listening to Bannon, picked his poison, lay with dogs, has chickens coming home to roost, among many metaphors.

[U-Ute]

I love my liberal Ute friends here, but do you guys realize that you're treating Steve Bannon -- Steve Bannon! -- as some kind of whistleblower? To hear you all talk, Bannon was a lying fascist pig, and now he's telling the truth? How can anyone believe anything either Bannon or Trump says?

Again, I ask this question with love in my heart.

They speak the truth only when it suits them.

[U-Ute]

They speak the truth only when it suits them.

I'll rephrase: They'll only tell you the part of the truth they want you to hear when it suits them.

[U-Ute]

An interesting article on how Trump never actually expected to win the Presidency. He just wanted the adoration of running and the platform of losing to throw shots at people.

It substantiates a bit of what I thought he looked like on Inauguration Day: Instant Regret.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/01/michael-wolff-fire-and-fury-book-donald-trump.html

[concerned]

They speak the truth only when it suits them.

At least it is the truth.

[U-Ute]

A particularly interesting quote (for me anyway) on what is going with Trump in the White House.


As soon as the campaign team had stepped into the White House, Walsh saw, it had gone from managing Trump to the expectation of being managed by him. Yet the president, while proposing the most radical departure from governing and policy norms in several generations, had few specific ideas about how to turn his themes and vitriol into policy. And making suggestions to him was deeply complicated. Here, arguably, was the central issue of the Trump presidency, informing every aspect of Trumpian policy and leadership: He didn’t process information in any conventional sense. He didn’t read. He didn’t really even skim. Some believed that for all practical purposes he was no more than semi-*literate. He trusted his own expertise *— no matter how paltry or irrelevant — more than anyone else’s. He was often confident, but he was just as often paralyzed, less a savant than a figure of sputtering and dangerous insecurities, whose instinctive response was to lash out and behave as if his gut, however confused, was in fact in some clear and forceful way telling him what to do. It was, said Walsh, “like trying to figure out what a child wants.”

[LA Ute]

Its not binary; you can loathe Trump and Bannon at the same time. Trump made this Faustian bargain in hiring and listening to Bannon, picked his poison, lay with dogs, has chickens coming home to roost, among many metaphors.

Yep.

"Gather ye scoundrels while ye may,
Old Time is still a-flying;
And this same jerk that smiles today
Tomorrow will be a-lying."

(Apologies to Robert Herrick.)

[Rocker Ute]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/michael-wolff-my-insane-year-inside-trumps-white-house-1071504

If this article is even 10% true it is terrifying.

Regarding Trump and his inability to listen to anyone nor accept others ideas, I worked with a person remarkably like him once. She knew that she could say any lie and repeat it enough that people would start believing her, and she would say whatever she had to, even if she had said something just the opposite literally only moments before. She had to be the focal point and always wanted desperately to be the smartest person in the room, or at least perceived to be. Even a slight disagreement with her would level her fire at you and she would attack all guns blazing and relentlessly. It was surprisingly effective, particularly with the owner of the company.

People soon figured out that all you needed to do with her is fawn over her and praise her for her genius and she would quickly become your ally. Best of all, all you had to do to get her backing was explain your idea, and just begin by saying it was really her idea. She would quickly absorb your lie as her own and suddenly be your advocate. It was entertaining to watch. But every time I hear Trump speak or read about how he conducts his life I think of her. Two massive narcissists, two epic disasters.

I bet my story is hardly unique, we've all ran into different levels of this. I think there are actually a lot of Trumps in the world.

[U-Ute]

Another disturbing quote from the "Fire And Fury" book.


here was more: Everybody was painfully aware of the increasing pace of his repetitions. It used to be inside of 30 minutes he'd repeat, word-for-word and expression-for-expression, the same three stories — now it was within 10 minutes. Indeed, many of his tweets were the product of his repetitions — he just couldn't stop saying something.

That sounds a lot like my grandparents who were struggling with various types of dementia.

[LA Ute]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/michael-wolff-my-insane-year-inside-trumps-white-house-1071504

If this article is even 10% true it is terrifying.

Regarding Trump and his inability to listen to anyone nor accept others ideas, I worked with a person remarkably like him once. She knew that she could say any lie and repeat it enough that people would start believing her, and she would say whatever she had to, even if she had said something just the opposite literally only moments before. She had to be the focal point and always wanted desperately to be the smartest person in the room, or at least perceived to be. Even a slight disagreement with her would level her fire at you and she would attack all guns blazing and relentlessly. It was surprisingly effective, particularly with the owner of the company.

People soon figured out that all you needed to do with her is fawn over her and praise her for her genius and she would quickly become your ally. Best of all, all you had to do to get her backing was explain your idea, and just begin by saying it was really her idea. She would quickly absorb your lie as her own and suddenly be your advocate. It was entertaining to watch. But every time I hear Trump speak or read about how he conducts his life I think of her. Two massive narcissists, two epic disasters.

I bet my story is hardly unique, we've all ran into different levels of this. I think there are actually a lot of Trumps in the world.


The hallmarks of Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD) are grandiosity, a lack of empathy for other people, and a need for admiration. People with this condition are frequently described as arrogant, self-centered, manipulative, and demanding. They may also concentrate on grandiose fantasies (e.g. their own success, beauty, brilliance) and may be convinced that they deserve special treatment. These characteristics typically begin in early adulthood and must be consistently evident in multiple contexts, such as at work and in relationships. People with narcissistic personality disorder believe they are superior or special, and often try to associate with other people they believe are unique or gifted in some way. This association enhances their self-esteem, which is typically quite fragile underneath the surface. Individuals with NPD seek excessive admiration and attention in order to know that others think highly of them. Individuals with narcissistic personality disorder have difficulty tolerating criticism or defeat, and may be left feeling humiliated or empty when they experience an "injury" in the form of criticism or rejection.

Symptoms

Narcissistic personality disorder is indicated by five or more of the following symptoms:



Exaggerates own importance
Is preoccupied with fantasies of success, power, beauty, intelligence or ideal romance
Believes he or she is special and can only be understood by other special people or institutions
Requires constant attention and admiration from others
Has unreasonable expectations of favorable treatment
Takes advantage of others to reach his or her own goals
Disregards the feelings of others, lacks empathy
Is often envious of others or believes other people are envious of him or her
Shows arrogant behaviors and attitudes



https://www.psychologytoday.com/conditions/narcissistic-personality-disorder

I see this all the time in problem physicians I help clients deal with. Often brilliant clinicians have NPD. It's tragic to watch as they wreck their careers and hurt people around them, including their patients.

[concerned]

https://www.psychologytoday.com/conditions/narcissistic-personality-disorder

I see this all the time in problem physicians I help clients deal with. Often brilliant clinicians have NPD. It's tragic to watch as they wreck their careers and hurt people around them, including their patients.

As I have said before, I worked as a young associate for two separate senior litigators each of whom had NPD. Trump reminds me of them very much. The difference, though, is that they were very smart, skilled, and able to read and analyze complex briefs or arguments and process large amounts information quickly. Same must be true with brain surgeons, etc. Not true with Trump. There has been a lot of speculation that his inability to process information suggests the early stages of dementia. There have been a spate of articles recently pointing out his speech patterns in interviews, particularly the NYT interview last week; I saw one the other day that showed him drinking water behind a podium on two separate occasions. Both times he held the cup in both hands and moved it to his mouth very deliberately, like a child trying not to spill hot chocolate. That might suggest a loss of motor control, although from all accounts he is a very good golfer, esp. for his age.

[LA Ute]

As I have said before, I worked as a young associate for two separate senior litigators each of whom had NPD. Trump reminds me of them very much. The difference, though, is that they were very smart, skilled, and able to read and analyze complex briefs or arguments and process large amounts information quickly. Same must be true with brain surgeons, etc. Not true with Trump. There has been a lot of speculation that his inability to process information suggests the early stages of dementia. There have been a spate of articles recently pointing out his speech patterns in interviews, particularly the NYT interview last week; I saw one the other day that showed him drinking water behind a podium on two separate occasions. Both times he held the cup in both hands and moved it to his mouth very deliberately, like a child trying not to spill hot chocolate. That might suggest a loss of motor control, although from all accounts he is a very good golfer, esp. for his age.

As a human being I would be sorry for Trump to have such an illness befall him. As an American I would be relieved to see VP Pence assume the presidency. He could make Mitt Romney his VP. Or maybe we'd see a national unity presidency, with Bill Clinton as his VP. 😉

It is true in my experience that people with NPD are often brilliant high achievers.

[U-Ute]

Trump all but guarantees that "Fire And Fury" will be a runaway hit by trying to hit the publisher with a C&D order.

Retailers are now buying it up in droves driving it to #1.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/publisher-henry-holt-rides-surge-of-interest-over-trump-book-1515096609

What an idiot.

[Ma'ake]

Sampling the cable news political talk shows tonight, CNN & MSNBC were all over the Fire & Fury story (copies in hand) along with Trump's mental well being, with former Watergate prosecutors proffering insight, ex-GOP national chairman Michael Steele offering grim views of what this all means for Trump, etc. Very predictable coverage, but pretty powerful.

(How Trump came to believe that allowing writer Michael Wolff unfettered access to all things in the White House would somehow be a positive thing will be a question for the ages.)

Meanwhile, over on Planet Fox, Tucker Carlson was skewering some advocate for DACA saying the fast food jobs these kids have will be going away, and they'll all end up on the public dole. I remember a few short years ago when Tucker was a skinny guy with a bow tie. He's been hitting the buffet pretty hard, and I'm guessing during the Trump reign has been gnawing on his fingernails during production meetings.

[LA Ute]

I interrupt the schadenfreude-fest here with some sober thoughts from the good old Wall Street Journal:


The Book of Bannon

Trump’s divorce from his former aide is good for his Presidency and the GOP.

Washington is having another media meltdown, this time over the public divorce between Donald Trump and former aide Stephen Bannon over a new book on President Trump’s first months in office. Our reading is that the book tells us what everyone already knew, and the falling out could help the Trump Presidency and Republicans.

The book is by Michael Wolff, which means it arrives with large factual caveats. Mr. Wolff has a history of combining anecdotes that are true with sweeping assertions that include no substantiation and are often merely his personal conclusions. The media know this, but Mr. Wolff’s quotes and stories reinforce the contempt they have for Mr. Trump so the tales are too good to ignore or try to disprove.

Most striking, despite the juicy quotes, is how little new the book reveals. Everyone knew Mr. Trump was surprised to win the election, that he then tried to run the White House like he had his family business with rival factions and little discipline, and that the place was a chaotic mess until John Kelly arrived as chief of staff. We also knew that Mr. Trump knew almost nothing about government or policy, that he reads very little, and that he is a narcissist obsessed with his critics. Any sentient voter knew this on Election Day.

The book is told mainly from Mr. Bannon’s point of view, and the Breitbart impresario is portrayed as thinking Mr. Trump is as much a dolt as Democrats think he is. He dislikes the Trump family, especially son-in-law Jared Kushner, who was a rival for influence.

The book also makes clear that Mr. Bannon was a leading cause of the pre-Kelly White House chaos. He and the press corps have a relationship of mutual loathing but co-dependency. They use each other, and the media love to promote Mr. Bannon because he is a talkative source and a destructive political force inside the Republican Party.

The press is also playing up Mr. Bannon’s claims, which he doesn’t deny, that Don Jr.’s meeting with Russians in June 2016 was “treasonous” and that Don Jr. and Mr. Kushner will be cashiered for money laundering. So the same reporters who think Mr. Bannon is a xenophobe and bigot now view him as a legal authority. There’s that co-dependency thing again.

The surprise is that Mr. Trump kept Mr. Bannon around as long as he did, and the reason is probably what LBJ said about keeping J. Edgar Hoover micturating inside the tent. But Mr. Bannon fed Mr. Trump’s political paranoia and his worst policy instincts such as tearing up Nafta. Mr. Bannon resembles Pat Buchanan, a protectionist predecessor to Mr. Trump, in being at heart an American declinist. He rails against the present in favor of a more idyllic past. Recall the “American carnage” of the Trump inaugural.

He also tried to conjure a grand theory of Trumpism that isn’t possible. The Trump appeal is a cult of personality that combines sometimes destructive populist passions for restricting trade and immigration with healthier instincts to revive the private economy and restore American strength in the world. For all of his demagoguery, Mr. Trump is no declinist.

***
The President finally fired Mr. Bannon after Mr. Kelly came aboard and Mr. Bannon defied the new chief by attacking his colleagues in an unapproved interview. The White House has since become a saner place, notwithstanding Mr. Trump’s Twitter effusions.

The Trump-Bannon divorce is therefore a political relief. The President’s worst mistakes have come from heeding Mr. Bannon’s desire to blow up the status quo first and pick up the pieces later—think of the travel ban. The President’s successes have come when he has bursts of discipline while pursuing the more conventional conservative agenda on judges, tax reform, regulation and foreign policy.

If Mr. Bannon’s assaults on his former boss marginalize Mr. Bannon a player in Republican politics, as they certainly should, so much the better for the 2018 elections and the rest of the Trump Presidency.

Appeared in the January 5, 2018, print edition.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-book-of-bannon-1515111214

[LA Ute]

The clown show expands.

Breitbart Owners Debate Ousting Bannon Amid Trump Feud - The Wall Street Journal.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/breitbart-owners-debate-ousting-bannon-amid-trump-feud-1515100110

It’s hard to rank Trump’s mistakes but hiring Bannon is at or near the top.

[LA Ute]

The AP English teacher both concerned and I had in high school (although I am much younger than concerned) taught us about critical thinking. In that spirit, here are a couple of liberal writers doing some of that kind of thinking about Michael Wolff.

Paul Farhi, the WaPo media reporter:

Michael Wolff tells a juicy tale in his new Trump book. But should we believe it?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/michael-wolff-tells-a-juicy-tale-in-his-new-trump-book-but-should-we-believe-it/2018/01/03/d46f31c6-f0b2-11e7-97bf-bba379b809ab_story.html?utm_term=.1cccab9f03f9

The New Republic’s Alex Shephard:

Michael Wolff’s Fire and Fury Is a Gift to Donald Trump

https://newrepublic.com/article/146492/michael-wolffs-fire-fury-gift-donald-trump

In a world verging on madness, skepticism can be important. It helps me, at least, to keep my Trump era astonishment, shock, dismay, anger, and sadness in some kind of rational and emotional perspective.

[concerned]

I interrupt the schadenfreude-fest here with some sober thoughts from the good old Wall Street Journal:



https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-book-of-bannon-1515111214

The party was going to coalesce around Trump after Roy Moore, and the retirements of Flake and Corker, anyway. It is Trump's party thru and thru. Bannon was pretty much neutered before this, but now his wont have Mercer money for insurgent candidates, apparently. That is in the short term; what happens in the longer term (i.e., mid term elections) is a completely different question. I think this book makes it that much harder on the margins to take Trump seriously or credulously, and to get his approval rating above 38%. It probably all turns on what evidence is out there to be discovered or disclosed.

[concerned]

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/930905542851252224/dbfa8FlT_bigger.jpgDavid Frum‏Verified account @davidfrum (https://twitter.com/davidfrum) 8s9 seconds ago (https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/949314567477301253)More


David Frum Retweeted Rachanee Srisavasdi

David Frum added,

Good news for Trump White House staff



Rachanee Srisavasdi @rachanee333
Jobs at lowest risk of automation are ones where there is a high degree of “chaos” and little time for the humans who fill them to react, such as a kindergarten teacher, @WilliamWelserIV on new @RANDCorporation study via @nancyscola https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/01/05/washington-automation-congress-politics-lobbying-policy-216216 …




this was funny, to me anyway.

[U-Ute]

this was funny, to me anyway.

I got a good chuckle out of it too.

fkPxDJ2bpZX7q