Sweet 16 or PAC-12 reg season champion?

[FountainOfUte]

Simple question...

Which will the Runnin' Utes accomplish first:

Make it to the Sweet 16, or
Win the PAC-12 regular season championship




(On a side note, I tried to post a poll but couldn't figure it out. Any tips for the future would be helpful. I see the option near the bottom of this post, but once you check the box and determine the options you want, I can't see what to do from there.)

[Scratch]

Sweet 16. That's a much easier accomplishment. I think a much tougher question would be elite 8 or regular season champ.

[Applejack]

Sweet 16. That's a much easier accomplishment. I think a much tougher question would be elite 8 or regular season champ.

With a high enough seed (1-6), you are really just one winnable game away from the Sweet Sixteen. Pac-12 regular season is a grind.

[FountainOfUte]

Sweet 16. That's a much easier accomplishment. I think a much tougher question would be elite 8 or regular season champ.

I agree. I think they'll reach the Sweet 16 first. So with that said, what's your answer to the Elite 8 question? At that point, it feels like a coin flip, but I think for the heck of it I'll say they'll win a PAC-12 championship first.

[Scratch]

I agree. I think they'll reach the Sweet 16 first. So with that said, what's your answer to the Elite 8 question? At that point, it feels like a coin flip, but I think for the heck of it I'll say they'll win a PAC-12 championship first.

I would guess that over the past decade or so, the PAC has averaged less than 1 team per year in the E8, although I would guess it's pretty close. UBlender, look that up, stat. I would also guess that during the same time frame, the PAC has averaged right at 1 team winning the regular season title per year, and, in fact, I feel pretty good about that guess (assuming the use of tie breakers). Therefore, based purely on league history and odds, I would guess regular season champ is more likely.

[Scratch]

We are not good enough to do either for the foreseeable future, so the real questions are (1) which program will get things going sooner? and (2) which feat is easier to luck into?

I don't know the answer to (1).

So how could we luck into a Pac-12 football title? The division would have to be weak (i.e. USC would have to have a down year), everyone beats up on everyone, and we rise to the top of the south with a 5-4 conference record. Then we somehow pull off the miracle in Autzen.

How do we luck into the elite 8? We first have to improve to the point of making the dance. Then we need a few upsets in our region to knock out some top seeds. Then we put a small run of three games together. Every year there are 1-2 elite 8 teams that are not among the top 25 teams in the country.

I think elite 8 is easier to luck into, so I will go with that.

I read it as meaning regular season basketball title, not football.

[FountainOfUte]

I read it as meaning regular season basketball title, not football.

Yes, I meant basketball in both cases with my original question. Throwing football into the equation makes it a whole other topic, but it's also an interesting one.

Generally, as low as our basketball has been, I think we'll see national success out of hoops before football. That's what I think if you made me guess. With that said, I think both programs are on a similar trajectory for making some national noise. At a minimum, both are more than one season away. Big success in their upcoming seasons would surprise me, for sure.

[SoCalPat]

Simple question...

Which will the Runnin' Utes accomplish first:

Make it to the Sweet 16, or
Win the PAC-12 regular season championship


Duh! We've already accomplished the first.

In all seriousness, it's No. 1 merely because of the ease involved in reaching it. You've got to win at least 12 games to accomplish the latter, but it's a lot easier to make the tournament and win two games to accomplish the former. Additionally, nobody cares about "outright" conference crowns in hoops, but there are no ties with regard to the Sweet 16.