The 2013 "Utah Best Case Scenario" Thread

[LA Ute]

This might be a good thread for keeping track of how we do in our progress toward a bowl game.

Back in early August Ted Miller wrote this, and we are right on track for what Ted laid out as the best we could hope for this year:

Best case-worst case: Utah

He has us beating USU and Weber State, losing to OSU, and beating BYU.

Then a loss to UCLA and an upset win over Stanford. Another win over Arizona, a loss to USC, and a win against Arizona State. We lose to Oregon, then close out by beating Washington State and Colorado.

Then: "They whip Texas 35-20 in the Holiday Bowl." (That's actually believable based on what we now know about Texas, if they can make a bowl game this year.)

I'm not delusional enough to think we'll be 8-4 and go to the Holiday Bowl, ending up 9-3, but still....it is not impossible. That's what fans do, isn't it -- dream?

big-smile2-smiley.gif

[U-Ute]

I see a minimum of 3 more losses; UCLA, Stanford, Oregon.

In order to stay bowl eligible, we will probably need to win 3 of these 4 games:

- 10/19 @Arizona
- 11/9 vs ASU
- 11/23 @WSU
- 11/30 vs Colorado

The interesting thing will be the next 4 weeks. I think we lose to both UCLA and Stanford, then play Arizona, which could go either way. In my mind, the USC game will be a bellwether game. If we are able to win that one, or be in it at the end, then I think we have a good chance of getting 3 of those 4. If not, we may miss bowling for a second straight year.

[Jarid in Cedar]

There are 3 or 4 more wins on the schedule, but the great thing about this conference is that I can't decide exactly which games to pick as potential wins. I would tier them in the following order:

60-75%-WSU and Colorado. They are both better and dangerous, but they are still weak teams.

50%-Arizona and USC. Arizona is hard to gauge. They are 3-0 against about the equivalent of Weber State. Their passing game is a mess, and they are dependent too much on Carey. Their percentage will move greatly based on their next 2 games.

30-40%- UCLA and ASU. Everyone is in love with UCLA, but their defense is weak against the pass. Could end up being another OSU kind of game. I think we are much closer to ASU, but after the beat down last year, I won't feel much better than this.

5-10%-Stanford and Oregon. I know that I am in the minority on this one, but I like our chances better against Oregon than Stanford simply because we will score some points. Stanford will likely be a closer margin, but because of the way Stanford plays, a 31-17 loss to them will feel like more of a beat down than a 49-63 loss to Oregon.

[sancho]

5-10%-Stanford and Oregon. I know that I am in the minority on this one, but I like our chances better against Oregon than Stanford simply because we will score some points. Stanford will likely be a closer margin, but because of the way Stanford plays, a 31-17 loss to them will feel like more of a beat down than a 49-63 loss to Oregon.

Stanford will be my first game in RES since I graduated in '01 (been to four road/bowl games since). I will have my lucky button in my wallet. I will drink a lucky halftime Coke. No way we lose that game.

[jrj84105]

Stanford has us Sandwhiched between UW and UCLA. On the road, in a new venue, this is THE trap game in their schedule.

[DrumNFeather]

I like that we get UCLA at home on a Thursday night coming off of an emotional win and a bye. Even though as Jarid said, everyone is in love with UCLA, we've beaten them once already in SLC as members of the Pac 12, AND, we played them close last year.

The only game I will go ahead and concede is Oregon. Beyond that, if Utah can avoid a major turnover bug in the first quarter (like we've seen in year's past vs. ASU (twice), Washington etc...) then I think we'll be in each of these games.

As I've said before, this feels like the season before the season that we really breakthrough, but it sure would be nice to do it with 7 or more wins to get this team, and particularly this QB, as much experience as possible.

[roseparkutes]

best case 11-1realisticly 9-3 with loses to Stanford and Oregon

[Applejack]

best case 11-1realisticly 9-3 with loses to Stanford and Oregon

I think our best case scenario is a bowl game. I like this team but there are some major weaknesses (pass defense, run blocking) that are going to keep us from competing with the big boys.

To make a bowl, we have to rely on beating Colorado at our place - they are little improved from a terrible team last year. WSU is much improved and on the road; ASU is going to have a field day throwing against us; Arizona looks tough. We are going to need 2 of 3 against WSU, ASU, and Ariz. Any other wins would be gravy, and at this point, highly unexpected.

[chrisrenrut]

best case 11-1realisticly 9-3 with loses to Stanford and Oregon

I like your enthusiasm, but I don't think there is any way we beat both Arizona and Southern Cal schools. And WSU on the road is not going to be as easy as years past.

My best case is we split the AZ and So Cal schools, beat CU and WSU, play Stanford close, and stay within 25 points of Oregon. 7-5, and a bowl game (not against BYU).

[Scorcho]

best case 11-1realisticly 9-3 with loses to Stanford and Oregon

ummmmm, sorry Nope!

[Brian]

This is still a very flawed team. A team that's making progress, and finally has a QB, but still flawed.
I'll be happy with 6 wins, and then make it 7 with a bowl game.
I don't think the defense is good enough yet, and the offense needs a lot of work still....
I'm looking to the next two years.

[SheriffCreg]

Stanford will be my first game in RES since I graduated in '01 (been to four road/bowl games since). I will have my lucky button in my wallet. I will drink a lucky halftime Coke. No way we lose that game.

I'm feeling better about this game now.

[sancho]

I like your enthusiasm, but I don't think there is any way we beat both Arizona and Southern Cal schools. And WSU on the road is not going to be as easy as years past.

My best case is we split the AZ and So Cal schools, beat CU and WSU, play Stanford close, and stay within 25 points of Oregon. 7-5, and a bowl game (not against BYU).

Guaranteed wins: Stanford

Toss ups: Zona, CU, Wazzu, USC

Likely losses: ASU, UCLA

For sure losses: Oregon

With the Stanford win, we just need to split the toss-up games to go bowling. Stealing one of the likely losses (they are both home games) would really help us out.

[NorthwestUteFan]

Wow. I think we have a 10% chance against Stanford. Seeing them just dismantle teams with their methodical offense doesn't give me a warm fuzzy about beating them. Yes we match up well against them but they will bring OSU's passing attack, a better running game than we have seen all season, a defense that is better than byu's front 7 plus a very good secondary, and a tremendous offensive line who will likely dominate us. If we play a perfect game we MIGHT have a chance against them.

But I will say that a win against Stanford would likely be the biggest regular-season win in the history of the program.

[LA Ute]

Wow. I think we have a 10% chance against Stanford. Seeing them just dismantle teams with their methodical offense doesn't give me a warm fuzzy about beating them. Yes we match up well against them but they will bring OSU's passing attack, a better running game than we have seen all season, a defense that is better than byu's front 7 plus a very good secondary, and a tremendous offensive line who will likely dominate us. If we play a perfect game we MIGHT have a chance against them.

But I will say that a win against Stanford would likely be the biggest regular-season win in the history of the program.

Sancho has this one.

[sancho]

Sancho has this one.

Yep, I will not let us lose that game. In addition to my first return to RES, it will be my son's first game in SLC (and the Utes are a lucky 1-0 in games he has attended). Stanford may as well not show up.

Stanford and USC are the two remaining defenses that are better than BYUs. We will need to convert 3rd and long against them a few times. We will need more of the big plays, and we will need more than 20 points (at least against the Cardinal -- 20 might do the job vs USC).

[Scorcho]

Stanford is currently in a different stratopshere than Utah. I wish it wasn't true, but it just is.

[Applejack]

Stanford is currently in a different stratopshere than Utah. I wish it wasn't true, but it just is.

I agree, but you aren't factoring in how much Sancho REALLY wants this one. That tips the scales for me.

[U-Ute]

Sancho has this one.

It would be the signature P12 win the program is looking for.

[U-Ute]

I agree, but you aren't factoring in how much Sancho REALLY wants this one. That tips the scales for me.

I'm on my way to bet the house on it right now..

[wally]

I agree, but you aren't factoring in how much Sancho REALLY wants this one. That tips the scales for me.

Same here. Kinda funny how when I hear Van Noy REALLY wanted the rivalry game, I was like: "whatevs, we all want stuff and we can't just have it by simply REALLY wanting it!"

But when I really think about Sancho's assertion, I just can't say the same thing. KVN should have had a lucky button and a lucky halftime coke or something.

[sancho]

luckybutton.jpg

[SoCalPat]

Our offense is good enough to get a win from the three perceived unwinnable games -- UCLA, Stanford and Oregon. After the Oregon State loss, winning one of these games is a must to get to eight wins. And we have another 56-53-like game ahead of us this year.

We can still get there by winning the rest, but I think our defense will let us down against either ASU, Arizona or USC. We win a minimum of one of those games, and I think we're good enough to get two wins. Until proven otherwise, we will be favored against WSU and Colorado. I'm still solidly in the eight wins camp.

[Applejack]

Our offense is good enough to get a win from the three perceived unwinnable games -- UCLA, Stanford and Oregon. After the Oregon State loss, winning one of these games is a must to get to eight wins. And we have another 56-53-like game ahead of us this year.

We can still get there by winning the rest, but I think our defense will let us down against either ASU, Arizona or USC. We win a minimum of one of those games, and I think we're good enough to get two wins. Until proven otherwise, we will be favored against WSU and Colorado. I'm still solidly in the eight wins camp.

I think you will be disappointed, unfortunately. I would guess that we will be fairly heavy underdogs in the ASU, Airizona, and USC games (7 points). I think we can hang with all of them, but I highly doubt we sweep them or even take two. I'd be thrilled with one.

[concerned]

WSU is not going to be easy in Pullman. They are improving. We could easily lose that one.

[Utah]

I think a bowl game is an extremely successful season because the PAC-12 is AMAZING this year. Have you seen our OOC record? It is unreal. Also, look at these stats (PAC-12 and SEC):

Top 25 offenses in total yards: Texas A&M (1), Utah (10), Oregon (11), LSU (18), OSU (21), Wash (25)
Top 25 offense in yards per game: Oregon (2), Washingon (3), UCLA (4), A&M (5), Georgia (6), Missouri (7), Cal (9), Utah (20), Kentucky/Ole Miss (25)
Points per game: Oregon (2), UCLA (3), A&M (6), Missouri (8), Arizona (15), LSU (16), Wash (18), Utah (20), OSU (24)

Holy crap. Considering how good BYU's and USU's defenses are, we have a FREAKING GREAT offense. Incredible.

Now to defense:

Total Defense: Florida (2), USC (4), WSU (10), Wash (12), Arkansas (17), LSU/Miss St (24), Arizona (26), Colorado (29), Oregon (30), Ole Miss (33), ASU (35)
Team Pass Eff Defense: Florida (3), Wash (7), Arizona (11), USC (12), Oregon (13), Wash St (15), LSU (20), Colorado (21),
Turnover Margin: Oregon (2), ASU (3), Missouri (11), Miss St (13), Colorado (19),

We are toe to toe with the SEC, including a better record against them this year, when Oregon killed Tennessee. If you did not look at the past year's successes, you would look at the PAC-12 and SEC and say they are neck and neck, with the slight edge going to the PAC-12 as the BEST conference in the country.

We HAVE to get our secondary issues figured out. The good news is Hans said that his sources close to Hoffman said that he really struggled to get separation from McGill last weekend. A HUGE step in the right direction.

The UCLA game is winnable, but we have to play perfect, unlike the OSU game. We can't have Orchard get two PF penalties (btw, he played AMAZING against BYU. He wasn't in the stat box, but he was very, very good), can't have Dres give up on two passes that lead to INT's, can't give up any 3rd/4th and longs, etc. We can put points on anyone, we need to take care of the ball and not give up big plays. If we can get better, our bend-but-don't-break defense is more than adequate to win 8 games. But we have to play assignment sound football (again, another shout out to Orchard. He was AMAZING against BYU. He held his edge perfectly, allowing Honeycutt to dominate the read option. The guy should get amazing props for doing his job and allowing others to make plays. He was terrific).

[SheriffCreg]

I think if we come as prepared for UCLA as we did for BYU, we hang in there with a chance to win, so long as we don't make big mistakes throughout the game.

While watching the BYU game, I kept thinking, this one is on the coaches. Utah came prepared, and it makes me very glad that BYU beat Texas in such an obvious way, because it gave us such a straight-forward game-plan in knowing exactly what we needed to prepare for. UCLA has more weapons than BYU, but if the coaches come as prepared for UCLA as they did for this last Saturday, I think we have a good shot.

[Virginia Ute]

Wow. I think we have a 10% chance against Stanford. Seeing them just dismantle teams with their methodical offense doesn't give me a warm fuzzy about beating them. Yes we match up well against them but they will bring OSU's passing attack, a better running game than we have seen all season, a defense that is better than byu's front 7 plus a very good secondary, and a tremendous offensive line who will likely dominate us. If we play a perfect game we MIGHT have a chance against them.

But I will say that a win against Stanford would likely be the biggest regular-season win in the history of the program.

I'm with you on this. Stanford isn't as flashy as Oregon, so I tend to underestimate them. After seeing what they did to ASU last week, I'm putting that game in the Oregon category as a conceded loss....it would take a miracle beyond what sancho can provide us to beat those guys.

[LA Ute]

I'm with you on this. Stanford isn't as flashy as Oregon, so I tend to underestimate them. After seeing what they did to ASU last week, I'm putting that game in the Oregon category as a conceded loss....it would take a miracle beyond what sancho can provide us to beat those guys.

As long as Sancho has his magic button we have a chance. I'm not conceding.

[SoCalPat]

I think you will be disappointed, unfortunately. I would guess that we will be fairly heavy underdogs in the ASU, Airizona, and USC games (7 points). I think we can hang with all of them, but I highly doubt we sweep them or even take two. I'd be thrilled with one.

I don't call a TD as being a "heavy" underdog. Shoot, we were getting 7 points just last week.

Using Sagarin's Predictor model, ASU essentially a pickem game (ASU -1 at worst), Arizona is -3.5 and USC -6.5. Those are all winnable games. What should be of come concern (and concerned nailed it) is that we'd be getting a point in Pullman based on the same model. We would be two TD favorites against Colorado, but don't be shocked if we're less than a TD dog to Stanford. In fact, if we beat UCLA, I would suspect an opener of Stanford -10.5, but quickly bet down to Stanford -6.5/7.5.