Utes picked 9th in preseason poll.
http://pac-12.com/article/2013/10/16...son-media-poll
There are five tiers in the poll:
Tier 1: Arizona
Tier 2: UCLA, Colorado, Oregon, Cal
Tier 3: Stanford, ASU, UW
Tier 4: Utah, OSU, USC
Tier 5: Wazzu
Utes picked 9th in preseason poll.
http://pac-12.com/article/2013/10/16...son-media-poll
There are five tiers in the poll:
Tier 1: Arizona
Tier 2: UCLA, Colorado, Oregon, Cal
Tier 3: Stanford, ASU, UW
Tier 4: Utah, OSU, USC
Tier 5: Wazzu
I would like to see the league get six into the Dance, preferably with Utah being that sixth team. But our non-con SOS is atrocious and the league is too good for us to win 12 or more games. It's win it all in Vegas or make the NIT. I would be happy with either scenario. No postseason this year makes Year 4 a must-win-big season for Larry. A CBI berth is the absolute minimum in Year 3, although it would represent less progress made than there was between Years 1-2.Originally Posted by sancho
I hate to put so much on Sancho's shoulders, but I want him to be holding his lucky button during every basketball game this season. We're all depending on you, Sancho.
"It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
--Antoine de Saint-Exupery
"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
--Yeats
“True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”
--John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell
Washington as always is overrated. I'm expecting a losing season from the Huskies now that they've lost their McDonald All Americans.
One thing I have learned in a long life: that all our science, measured against reality, is primitive and childlike -- and yet it is the most precious thing we have.
--Albert Einstein
The fact that life evolved out of nearly nothing, some 10 billion years after the universe evolved out of literally nothing, is a fact so staggering that I would be mad to attempt words to do it justice.
--Richard Dawkins
Be kind to all, for everyone you meet is fighting a great battle.
--Philo
I still think the non-conf thing is not such a big deal (though I would like to see a more interesting non-conf schedule). If we truly are a tournament worthy team, we will win enough conference games to prove it. We have enough opportunities to prove it. If we are not a tournament worthy team, we would not clean up on a tough non-conf schedule and then lose the conference games.
I'm super high on Kodiak/KrystoMeth, but I'm not high on this year's squad. Like our football team, I think we're one year away from a breakthrough.
I never thought I would say this, but it will be hard to replace last year's seniors:
Washburn - Most consistent player and best interior defender. I guess people are hoping Olsen can fill the defensive role, but I have my doubts. As for his scoring, I am not putting any money on Lenz having a breakthrough year.
C. Martin - Our best wing defender. I'm hoping that Tucker or Wright can fill this role. Tucker is a little small to guard all of the long 3s in the Pac, so hopefully Wright is up for the challenge.
Dubois - Scoring and three point shooting. I assume that the hope is that his scoring is assumed by improvement from the young guys (largely Loveridge). But who steps up as an outside threat?
I think Onwas is the top candidate to replace Martin. He is more athletic, so he should be able to guard/rebound as effectively. I don't know how his shooting compares, but offensively, he is probably more of a slasher.
I am surprised at the hype on Lenz. I haven't seen anything from him to make me think he should be on the floor.
Olsen fouled a lot in his limited minutes last season. That obviously has to stop.
The 4/5 is the obvious hole. It's all about Olsen. Too bad that kid from the east chose Nova over us. There was a real need for him.
We have a lot of new faces, and there is always excitement and hype with new faces. There is usually some disappointment. But we do have some returning faces to be excited about.
FWIW, there are a bunch of reports from the coaching staff about how Lenz has changed, lost weight, lifted weights, gotten more focused, etc. They seem to be high on him and supposedly he's a different player now. We'll see.
"It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
--Antoine de Saint-Exupery
"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
--Yeats
“True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”
--John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell
I agree with this. I feel more than a tad sheepish saying that the Runnin' Utes are going to miss Washburn, but they are.
I heard Kodiak interviewed a few weeks back, and he responded to the criticisms of the ludicrous preseason schedule. His response was that this team has better talent, certainly, but there are still six new guys and that four of the six will be counted on to contribute, a couple of them mightily. Of the six returners, three are sophomores and one is Lenz. Frontcourt depth is an issue.
Anyway, I'm giving Kodiak a pass on the schedule, provided they win, and I buy season tickets, and I have for every year of the Giac, Boylen, and Kodiak eras, and I go to more of the damn games than the freaking cheerleaders, so don't question me on this!!!
Really, a schedule like this in the future would give me not insignificant gas. I'm hoping this is the last major concession we will have to lay at the feet of Kodiak's rebuild. Excuses are soon going to be excuses.
I expect next year's Utes to be good, like NCAA or bust good. I expect this year's to make the NIT.
I'm a notch below your pessimistic optimism: I think this year we challenge, but don't make the NIT, and next year we are a bubble team that bursts.
No committee member in the last 20 years has ever had that mindset.
But I'll go ahead and say they do. Where does a Utah team that goes 9-1 non-con, 11-7 Pac-12 and 1-1 in Vegas go?
You are right that committee members will use non-con SOS as a tiebreaker. I overstated my case. I mostly mean to say that we will have the chance to prove ourselves with our schedule.
If we were a MWC team, this non-con schedule would make the tournament a near impossibility. In the Pac-12, the tournament is possible, we just have to beat Arizona/UCLA/CU to get there.
To answer the question, it matters who the 1 non-conf loss is and who the 12 conf wins are. The standing in the conference also matters (though standing alone cannot guarantee anything).
I generally agree with you. We would probably be right at that 5th/6th spot in the Pac-12 standings. Depending on the strength of the other conferences and bubble teams, I think that we would be in the discussion of Last 4 In, First 4 Out. And in all honesty, I think that is the ceiling for this Utah team. My personal expectations are a top half seed in the NIT.
The silly thing about this is that the SOS ALONE counts for points, even if you lose the games. "Well Utah finished 6th and Stanford finished 7th, but I vote for Stanford because they lost to Northwestern and UConn in the preseason."
So many questions about this team.
-I have read that Lenz has improved and could start at the 4 or the 5 depending on what Larry wants the starting five to look like. I know that he was a highly touted JUCO guy, but after last season, I am taking a wait and see approach on him.
-I have read that Onwas is a major athlete and could be our starting 3. His stats from JUCO were abysmal. Again, I am taking a wait and see approach with him.
-I have read a million other things about this team and the improvements made and the impact the newcomers will have.
At the end of the day, I have no idea what to expect from this team. I could see things breaking our way and finishing 7th in conference. I could see us finishing 10th (I can't imagine finishing behind Oregon State or Wazzu.)
My hope is that we can win 20 games and go to the NIT.
One observation about Onwas: In the 2-hour practice I attended he was invisible. He wasn't involved in running the offense, wasn't in the mix for rebounds, and generally looked young and lost. Just FWIW. We might not want to get too excited about him just yet.
"It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
--Antoine de Saint-Exupery
"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
--Yeats
“True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”
--John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell
In the one hour public practice last Saturday I really thought Onwas showed some ability at both ends of the court. He was playing with a team of Olsen, Van Dyke, Fields and Rickets, but he was physical, handled the ball well, rebounded and had a good looking shot from the outside. I commented last week that I think he will be like Cedric Martin. I think he is more ready to play and contribute than Ogbe and Fields. They both probably have more upside, but they both have a lot to work on to become threats on the offensive end of the court. I think Onwas will be the first off the bench for Wright, Tucker or Loveridge.
I hope you're right. Maybe something else was going on the day I was there. (Like me not paying close enough attention.)
"It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
--Antoine de Saint-Exupery
"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
--Yeats
“True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”
--John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell
It's really interesting what we see based upon our preconceived notions and biases. Tony Jones see things, I just don't see and vice versa. This is not a rip on you. Others (like Jones) are going hogwild over Onwas. You aren't. I tend to agree with you.
While I can't say one way or the other, I have to say judgments based off 1 or 2 hours for or against make little sense.
As others have pointed out about the playing time gripes in football, only the coaches really have the vision of everything that goes on.
I think we Fans tend to get too up or down on players based on highlight reels and sneak peaks.
It's not that you're rewarded for losing, you're rewarded for taking on quality opposition when there were 250 other teams you could have scheduled instead for an easy 'W'. And teams can always find quality opponents to fill out the schedule.
There never was any reason to get excited about Onwas. He was an OK player on an OK team in an above-average JUCO league. If he couldn't dominate there, how could anyone expect great things from him here?
Middling-talent JUCOs will never make a bad team better, because they're counted on to do too much (think Dijon Farr, a natural 3, having to play the 4-5, or Cedric Martin having to play the point). If anything, they'll make you worse. But they can make a good team better, because you can hide their flaws and maximize their strengths. I don't think Onwas is the all-around player that Farr or Martin were, but he'll benefit more with superior talent around him.
He should be able to defend three positions, finish at the basket when given the chance and hold his own for 8-10 minutes per game. Anything more than that is a huge bonus. I also suspect that Fields or Ogbe will be able to redshirt because of this, which given our glut of wings, is not a bad thing, given how I generally view redshirting in basketball.
I don't have any feeling for the new guys. Pat's enthusiasm for Delon Wright is intersting with Pat's understandng of the JUCO leagues and becuase he's usually tough to please. I'm taking the 2013 recruits on faith because on paper they're not too impressive. However, I'm optimistic because I'm hoping for big strides form our sophs, as we used to expect. How many times have we seen that. A lot of times going clear back to Ticky Burden and then Judkins and Chambers.
One thing I have learned in a long life: that all our science, measured against reality, is primitive and childlike -- and yet it is the most precious thing we have.
--Albert Einstein
The fact that life evolved out of nearly nothing, some 10 billion years after the universe evolved out of literally nothing, is a fact so staggering that I would be mad to attempt words to do it justice.
--Richard Dawkins
Be kind to all, for everyone you meet is fighting a great battle.
--Philo
Some have possibly suggested that Pat is setting Kodiak up by saying so many good things about Wright. As critical as Pat is all the time, it's perplexing as to how he could state that Wright is a pro before he plays his first game on the hill. Don't buy Pat's hype. That is unfair to the kid and to Utah.
Having said that, the schedule is so ridiculously easy that anything short of a 13-2 preseason is a huge disappointment. 13-2 would allow for a loss on the road to Boise and a loss at home to BYU. I'm not reaching in my expectations in any way. The Utes made their bed with that schedule. Now they have to lie in it.
I mean 10-2, not 13-2
Many of you clearly know more about JUCO basketball than I do, but it seems that high scoring JUCO guards often have a hard time adjusting to DI ball.
My theory: I have to assume that the quality of big men in the JUCO ranks is very low. I rarely hear of JUCO bigs making it at a higher level; big men are scarce enough that the quality guys get scholarships out of high school. So you have JUCO guards who really struggle at the higher level once there is someone with a pulse in the paint.
Does my theory have any merit?
I know a little bit about JUCO. There is a lot less coaching, planning for games and help defense. Guards can get into the paint easier, opposing teams don't game plan as well and they can freelance much more than mid and high level D1. When the game slows down, high scoring JC guards (and forwards) struggle. Plus you have to actually exert a lot more energy on the defensive end in D 1
sounds a lot like AAU ball.
This is exactly right, from my limited experience. And that said, Onwas didn't produce much at all offensively in that environment. That's why I have limited expectations for him on the offensive side of the ball. I can only assume he's being brought in to to fill the Cedric Martin role (good, tough D, physical presence, knock down the occasional open jumper), and I also hope that with the increased talent on the team that "the Cedric Martin role" changes from the 31 mpg Cedric played last year to 8-12 minutes in a backup role that can play 3 positions depending on matchups, and possibly be ready to play 25 minutes on occasion when the on-court matchups dictate more minutes.
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