Three months ago, the idea of Kyle being on the hot seat was to be entertained, but not taken too seriously. Back-to-back 5-7 seasons will do that to any coach. Most coaches with lesser resumes would have been fired.

I would say since then Kyle's seat has gotten warmer. I have not been excited about the hits the program has taken as of late. We're losing mission kids, we're not making inroads in the state's top talent and our recruiting in California is no different than what it was when we were in the MWC; in fact, it may be worse (Recruiting geeks, please, make some arguments to the contrary). We just got a verbal from a kid whose lone FBS offer was San Jose State. I'm puzzled by this. If this recruit truly is all that, then we have to spend a lot of time fending off other schools -- and could lose him anyway (see: Huff, Josh; Henderson, Ryan). If he's not, he'll be there in February if we really want him. Shouldn't we be offering more polished prospects?

I don't believe I'm falling victim to the star system -- our team ranking in recruiting with relation to our conference peers has pretty much been in line with our conference finish for over a decade -- we were one of the better recruiting MWC teams, we're easily one of the bottom four recruiting teams in the Pac-12. As much as I think "recruiting news" is an oxymoron on the individual level, Rivals and Scout are pretty good with making broader assessments at the team level.

Much like Kyle delivered when everything was lined up in 2008, he's gotta bounce back when everyone is counting him out. We have never had a season under Kyle where we were being written off so far in advance. Kyle could use this to his advantage, but unlike the close calls last year, we need wins. I fully expect Kyle to be gone if we go 5-7 with Travis starting 10 or more games. If we have QB health issues again, the direction we go in becomes a much tougher call.

Fortunately, if Travis starts 12, we win a minimum of 8. I still believe in Kyle, down as I am about the aforementioned issues. If we win, we'll recruit better. But we gotta get this turned around this year. If we get to 7 total wins, I think Kyle is safe. Anything less than that, even 6-7 with a bowl loss, is really dicey. This season would have to be exceptionally cruel for us to keep Kyle without going to a bowl. If DEFCON 5 is Lane Kiffin speaking with Pat Haden at the airport, it's safe to say Kyle's status is already at DEFCON 3 and rising. But damn, this team needs a shot of good mojo. Past Travis, we haven't had any in some time.