Boise has SDSU @ WYO and Utah st left. None of those games are gimmies and I expect them to lose one of those games.Originally Posted by sancho
As for the PAC12 UCLA is 11 and Ariz st is 6. Under my scenarios the two teams in front of UCLA (Ole Miss (to Miss st) and Auburn (to Bama)) would both lose putting UCLA at at least 9. ASU would probably be 5 going into the conf championship (Bama would lose to Miss st) and losing to the #2 team (Oregon) probably wouldn't knock them out of the top 9.
"Be a philosopher. A man can compromise to gain a point. It has become apparent that a man can, within limits, follow his inclinations within the arms of the Church if he does so discreetly." - The Walking Drum
"And here’s what life comes down to—not how many years you live, but how many of those years are filled with bullshit that doesn’t amount to anything to satisfy the requirements of some dickhead you’ll never get the pleasure of punching in the face." – Adam Carolla
Having lived briefly in the DC area, I cannot let this go unremarked. Bravo
i'm hoping for Holiday Bowl.
σοφῷ ἀνδρὶ Ἑλλὰς πάντα.
-- Flavius Philostratus, Life of Apollonius 1.35.2.
So am I. A 2-hour drive down the 405 and 5.Having lived briefly in the DC area, I cannot let this go unremarked. Bravo
i'm hoping for Holiday Bowl.
"It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
--Antoine de Saint-Exupery
"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
--Yeats
“True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”
--John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell
We can still win the conference.
We win out
Ucla beats usc then lose to stanford
Arizona beats asu
Puts everyone in 5 way tie we would have us and ucla with only one divisional loss and we beat them.
Sent from my SGH-M919 using Tapatalk 2
"Be a philosopher. A man can compromise to gain a point. It has become apparent that a man can, within limits, follow his inclinations within the arms of the Church if he does so discreetly." - The Walking Drum
"And here’s what life comes down to—not how many years you live, but how many of those years are filled with bullshit that doesn’t amount to anything to satisfy the requirements of some dickhead you’ll never get the pleasure of punching in the face." – Adam Carolla
The south is absolutely crazy. Arizona State losing in the Reser Graveyard was unexpected (kind of). Oregon better watch out. That is apparently the place that ranked teams go to die. Our win there was great.
I'm absolutely loving this season.
The PAC 12 currently has six bowl eligible teams (Utah, Oregon, UCLA, USC, Arizona, ASU), two eliminated teams (WSU, CU) and four that can still get there (Cal, Stanford, OSU, UW-who has to get to seven wins because they play 13 games having played at Hawaii). Two more teams will get eligible this weekend as Stanford at Cal and OSU at UW are on the schedule for tomorrow. The conference could get 10 bowl eligible teams and end up with some "free agents" after all bowl tie-ins are filled. I would handicap the likelihood of the four on the bubble like this:
1. Washington (OSU, at WSU)
2. Cal (Stanford, BYU)
3. Stanford (at Cal, at UCLA)
4. Oregon State (at UW, Oregon)
I don't think OSU wins either of its games, but tomorrow is obviously their best chance. Cal is tough this year but hasn't beaten good teams. Still, they have two home games to win one at home--Stanford is winnable for them, but if they fail to get it then their final home game is a cupcake. Stanford desperately needs to win Saturday because I think they will have a very hard time beating UCLA on the road. I think the Trees will get there on Saturday. Cal is most similar to WSU and OSU, two teams that Stanford has drilled this year (though I think Cal is better than both, the matchup still seems good for Stanford).
My guess is that the PAC 12 ends up with nine bowl eligible teams. Washington will win its last two games to get to 8-5 while Cal and Stanford will both split to get to 6-6 and will be the two teams left scrambling for a home after PAC 12 bowls are filled.
How does this impact Utah? The team can't afford to limp to the finish as there is fierce competition for those bowl spots.
Of course, one thing that will also be a big storyline to follow is the number of PAC 12 teams in the Playoff/NY6 bowls. Technically, Utah could still sneak into the NY6 although I doubt it will happen. For this reason, we want Oregon to win out (unless they face Utah in the PAC 12 CG, of course). We also want UCLA to win big this week, both to keep Utah's division hopes alive and, for the time being, to keep UCLA positioned for the NY6 and move everybody up a bowl slot. A strong finish by UCLA and one of the Arizona schools would be bad for Utah's division hopes (and their record if it's Arizona) but would give the PAC a shot at three NY6 bowls (this would require some attrition in other conferences too) which would bump everyone else up to a better bowl.
Bottom line: Utah needs to win and cheer for Oregon. The other games will have a lot of win/win and lose/lose situations to them.
Thanks for the concise analysis. I wonder about these things, but am too busy/lazy to put the brainpower into sorting it out.
“To me there is no dishonor in being wrong and learning. There is dishonor in willful ignorance and there is dishonor in disrespect.” James Hatch, former Navy Seal and current Yale student.
I cut to the chase, read this advice, and am adopting it as my mantra for the weekend.
"It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
--Antoine de Saint-Exupery
"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
--Yeats
“True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”
--John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell
ESPN's latest projections have us in either the SUN (Louisville) or Holiday (Minnesota).
I'd take either one of those at 8-4...and so would each one of you!
“It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”
Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.
We've never lost to Louisville, and Minnesota was Ron McBride's first win as HC, coming with one of the most memorable finishes in school history.
I prefer Holiday, if only to hearken back to our WAC days, when we the only school from the post-ASU, pre-expansion days never to earn a bid there. AFA could've played in the game, but had other bowl suitors it found more desirable.
After our loss, I couldn't get off the couch. I watched Petrino at Louisville win despite some horrible clock management. Watched Ferentz lose partly due to some bad clock management. Then I hear Mike Smith of the Atlanta Falcons lost due to poor clock management. Last week, UW lost to Arizona due to poor clock management.
My conclusion? Football coaches are not smart. The average fan might actually be smarter than the average coach. The average poster on this board is certainly smarter.
How would we reach the holiday bowl? Wouldnt it take UCLA winning out and them being in playoff? then Oregon goes cotton and the ASUvAZ winner going to the fiesta? that seems pretty unlikely. I'd say its we are either Sun, San Fran or Vegas.
"Be a philosopher. A man can compromise to gain a point. It has become apparent that a man can, within limits, follow his inclinations within the arms of the Church if he does so discreetly." - The Walking Drum
"And here’s what life comes down to—not how many years you live, but how many of those years are filled with bullshit that doesn’t amount to anything to satisfy the requirements of some dickhead you’ll never get the pleasure of punching in the face." – Adam Carolla
Wilner's latest bowl projections:
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/college...ed-everything/
If we are in Vegas, who would you rather face - USU, BSU, or CSU? I'd hate to end the season with a loss to USU or BSU.
On the bright side, I think I could make it to the Vegas Bowl.
This weekends rooting guide for Utah to get the best bowl possible:
1. Utah over CU (duh)
2. UCLA over Stanford by as much as possible (enhances UCLA's NY6 chances and keeps Stanford solidly behind Utah
3. Arizona big over ASU (either team still has a shot at NY6 but Arizona's case is a little stronger with its win over Oregon and ASU's bad loss to OSU)
4. Wazzu over Washington (puts UW behind Utah in the pecking order)
5. Notre Dame over USC (puts USC behind Utah in the pecking order, although they are still a big name program without a lot of enthusiasm among their fans right now)
6. Oregon over Oregon State (keep Oregon in the playoff, enhance the PAC 12's chances to get more teams in NY6 and bump everyone else up)
7. Cal over BYU??? (Shouldn't affect Utah's bowl but then again would Foster Farms bowl in SF reach for Cal over teams with better records? I'm thinking no, so I think we can enjoy Cal beating BYU without it adversely impacting Utah).
8. Upsets! Root for as many one and two loss teams to lose in order to clear more space in the Playoff and NY6 for UCLA and Arizona/ASU.
C'mon, Sancho. We ain't losing to Utah State.
Boise and CSU are good teams, but I like our chances against either of them.
Personally, I'd prefer this order: 1. CSU (assuming they still have one loss), 2. Utah State (I like in-state rivalries), 3. Boise - we've played them in a bowl recently.
This prediction has us playing Duke in the Sun bowl
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaaf-...025711101.html
Better than Las Vegas.
"It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
--Antoine de Saint-Exupery
"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
--Yeats
“True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”
--John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell
http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections
Predicting Louisville or Norte Dame in the Sun Bowl.
I think arizona is Ny6 game win or lose.
That puts asu, ucla Alamo and holiday. We win and usc wins that would probably mean San Fran chooses usc and sun bowl chooses us. If usc loses and we win we have better overall record bit worse conference record still think it's sun bowl. We lose I think it's vegas.
Sent from my SGH-M919 using Tapatalk 2
"Be a philosopher. A man can compromise to gain a point. It has become apparent that a man can, within limits, follow his inclinations within the arms of the Church if he does so discreetly." - The Walking Drum
"And here’s what life comes down to—not how many years you live, but how many of those years are filled with bullshit that doesn’t amount to anything to satisfy the requirements of some dickhead you’ll never get the pleasure of punching in the face." – Adam Carolla
Frisco or El Paso
Sent from my SGH-M919 using Tapatalk 2
"Be a philosopher. A man can compromise to gain a point. It has become apparent that a man can, within limits, follow his inclinations within the arms of the Church if he does so discreetly." - The Walking Drum
"And here’s what life comes down to—not how many years you live, but how many of those years are filled with bullshit that doesn’t amount to anything to satisfy the requirements of some dickhead you’ll never get the pleasure of punching in the face." – Adam Carolla
Bill Riley thinks Stanford gets the San Francisco game. FWIW. I'd love it, personally.
"It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
--Antoine de Saint-Exupery
"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
--Yeats
“True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”
--John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell
Bowls
CFP (Top 4)
CFP (Other 8)
Alamo vs. Big 12 #2
Holiday vs. Big 10 #4
Foster Farms vs Big 10 #6
Sun Bowl vs ACC #4
Vegas vs MWC #1
Cactus vs Big 12 #6
Eligible Teams
Oregon 8-1
Arizona 7-2
UCLA 6-3
USC 6-3
ASU 6-3
Utah 5-4
Stanford 5-4
Washington 4-5
According to Jon Wilner, the Sun, Vegas and Cactus cannot take a team with a worse conference record ahead of a team with a better conference record. As a result, both Utah and Stanford will be selected for one of those games ahead of Washington.
If Oregon beats Arizona, it will be in the top 4 but could it drop out of the top 10 if it loses? I don’t think so, but it is possible.
If Arizona beats Oregon, it will not move into the top 4, but it would be in the top 10. Could the PAC 12 have two teams in the non-championship games? Assuming the answer to that is yes, here is how I see the bowls shaking out:
CFP top 4 teams - Oregon
CFP other New Years - Arizona
Alamo - USC
Holiday - UCLA
Foster Farms - ASU or Stanford (no rule on upper bowls taking teams with lower conference record)
Sun - ASU if available, Utah if not.
Vegas - Utah if available. Stanford if not in Foster Farms.
Cactus - Washington
It would be such a disappointment to end up with the Vegas bowl after such a great season.
Agreed. I'm hoping for Sun. Sure wish Dres had caught that TD pass against WSU.... Or that we had gotten just one more break in any of a half-dozen situations in either the WSU or ASU games. Oh, well.
"It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
--Antoine de Saint-Exupery
"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
--Yeats
“True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”
--John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell
I can go to the Vegas Bowl and cannot go to the Sun Bowl, so I know what I am hoping for. It also sets up nicely for a Vegas Bowl afternoon and a Ute vs. UNLV bball game later that night.
Sun is a decent bowl but an expensive and terrible location from a logistical standpoint. Delta doesn't even service El Paso or Las Cruces. I have vouchers with Delta that could use to offset some of the cost of traveling to a bowl game but Utes or not, will not fork out $600 + per ticket to go to a place like El Paso for a couple of days. Also, the only candidate bowl location too far to drive.
I would prefer the Holiday Bowl but since this seems out of the question, San Francisco would be great as well. Outside the Holiday, I would take the Cactus Bowl given the payout, potential quality opponent, and quality location. Vegas wouldn't be ideal given a potentially poor opponent but at least it is cheap, drivable, and the basketball team is playing UNLV the same night at the MGM.
Any place is easier to get to, cheaper, and a better location than El Paso. Sorry, just calling it how I see it.
The Pac-12 should work on improving the Vegas Bowl. It's one of the best destinations for a game, but the time (before xmas) and opponent (MWC #2) are lousy.
I could actually drive from Denver to El Paso in a reasonable amount of time, but I will be in SLC after xmas. Oh well. It will be fun to gather with family to watch the Sun Bowl.
As far as destination itself (not talking travel), I don't see why Tempe is any better than El Paso. Neither is really a tourist town.
I'll be with family in Salt Lake over Christmas (driving there from LA) so a trip to a bowl game would be tough. Holiday or SF might work but looks like we're not going to either of those. We'll probably gather around the TV.
"It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
--Antoine de Saint-Exupery
"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
--Yeats
“True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”
--John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell
Didn't realize but San Fran Bowl is in the middle of the week which would require taking 2-3 days off work. Most of the other bowls are on weekends or concise with holiday weekends where only taking one day off would be necessary.
Vegas is sounding better and better to me given the proximity and the fact I could also watch the Running Utes play UNLV at the MGM that night.
Vegas is a lose-lose game in terms of opponent.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote