The Oregon Trail: Utes vs. Oregon St. & Oregon

[DrumNFeather]

Here we go...

In a "classic trap game" scenario, Utah heads to Oregon to take on the Beavers and Ducks in that order. The Oregon Schools just wrapped up the LA trip where they went a combined 1-3. Oregon St. has surprised most folks with its performance this year under first year head coach Wayne Tinkle, and has already upset Arizona at home.

The ducks are on the verge of being in the field of 68, and a signature win over the Utes could certainly help, so we'll definitely need to step our game up to come out of this week's games with a win.

Cannot overlook either one of these teams, otherwise, it might feel like this...


tumblr_mq23r5H3CX1qbh26io1_1280.jpg

[UtahsMrSports]

Here we go...

In a "classic trap game" scenario, Utah heads to Oregon to take on the Beavers and Ducks in that order. The Oregon Schools just wrapped up the LA trip where they went a combined 1-3. Oregon St. has surprised most folks with its performance this year under first year head coach Wayne Tinkle, and has already upset Arizona at home.

The ducks are on the verge of being in the field of 68, and a signature win over the Utes could certainly help, so we'll definitely need to step our game up to come out of this week's games with a win.

Cannot overlook either one of these teams, otherwise, it might feel like this...


tumblr_mq23r5H3CX1qbh26io1_1280.jpg

Ill be disappointed with 0-2. 1-1 would be anywhere from passable to good depending on how we play, and 2-0 would really set us up nicely for the stretch run. I think I have joined the folks who have a disproportionately large amount of dislike for the Beavers, so I hope we really take it to them.

BTW, in regards to your graphic, I don't know how many of you played Oregon Trail, but man, it seemed like every time I played, I would get right to the end, on pace to finally defeat Stephen Meek (a fictional character who always held the top score on the game) only to have someone in my party die of cholera, dysentery, or just get sick and die without any prior warning so that I could rest. Curse you game, and curse you stephen meek, who remains all alone in the top spot of every oregon trail game ever. I tell ya, it was maddening.

[DrumNFeather]

Ill be disappointed with 0-2. 1-1 would be anywhere from passable to good depending on how we play, and 2-0 would really set us up nicely for the stretch run. I think I have joined the folks who have a disproportionately large amount of dislike for the Beavers, so I hope we really take it to them.

BTW, in regards to your graphic, I don't know how many of you played Oregon Trail, but man, it seemed like every time I played, I would get right to the end, on pace to finally defeat Stephen Meek (a fictional character who always held the top score on the game) only to have someone in my party die of cholera, dysentery, or just get sick and die without any prior warning so that I could rest. Curse you game, and curse you stephen meek, who remains all alone in the top spot of every oregon trail game ever. I tell ya, it was maddening.

After watching them go a combined 1-3 this past weekend, it does feel like these are "really can't lose" type of games in terms of where I think this team is at and postseason positioning.

And yes...I cannot tell you how many times I got close only to have a few OX wander off or have a member of my party die.

[UtahsMrSports]

After watching them go a combined 1-3 this past weekend, it does feel like these are "really can't lose" type of games in terms of where I think this team is at and postseason positioning.

And yes...I cannot tell you how many times I got close only to have a few OX wander off or have a member of my party die.

I really dont mean to derail this discussion, but yes! hahaha! I forgot about Ox wandering off! My other favorite was how sometimes the Indians would bring you food, and sometimes they would randomly raid your camp and steal a spare wagon axle, those jerks. Or who could forget the classic "you shot 52,239 pounds of food, but you could only carry 200 pounds back to camp." sign that would pop up after you were done filling up the praire with buffalo carcasses. Finally, I loved how you were given a choice each time you came to a river of whether you were going to caulk the wagon and float across (cost was $0 and it had a success rate of 80-90%) or you could ford the river (cost of $0, 100% chance of death and lost supplies).

[DrumNFeather]

I really dont mean to derail this discussion, but yes! hahaha! I forgot about Ox wandering off! My other favorite was how sometimes the Indians would bring you food, and sometimes they would randomly raid your camp and steal a spare wagon axle, those jerks. Or who could forget the classic "you shot 52,239 pounds of food, but you could only carry 200 pounds back to camp." sign that would pop up after you were done filling up the praire with buffalo carcasses. Finally, I loved how you were given a choice each time you came to a river of whether you were going to caulk the wagon and float across (cost was $0 and it had a success rate of 80-90%) or you could ford the river (cost of $0, 100% chance of death and lost supplies).

Totally agree...and I think the analogy for this week fits...make the smart moves fellas, don't ford the river!

[Dwight Schr-Ute]

[Jarid in Cedar]

This weeks games are the difference between a 3 seed(sweep), or a 4 seed(split) or even a 5(0-2).

[DrumNFeather]

This weeks games are the difference between a 3 seed(sweep), or a 4 seed(split) or even a 5(0-2).

Totally agree.

I think we are in a position where we can lock up a 3 seed (barring a disaster) pretty soon, and if we beat Arizona and a few other things happen, we might even move up to the 2 line, though that would take quite a bit.

[sancho]

Totally agree.

I think we are in a position where we can lock up a 3 seed (barring a disaster) pretty soon, and if we beat Arizona and a few other things happen, we might even move up to the 2 line, though that would take quite a bit.

Right now, we are 1-3 vs tournament locks, 3-1 vs the bubble, and our best road win is @BYU. For some reason understood by nobody, the committee still uses RPI, which helps us a lot. We have no bad losses, but we've seen over and over again that quality wins help more than bad losses hurt.

I think the Arizona game next week will play a larger role in our seeding than this week's games, unless we lose them both.

[Old Standing ute]

Ore St only has 3 players who average in double figures in scoring. The Glove Jr. leads them in everything including rebounding. Our Bigs should be able to dominate. They will play zone & it will be low scoring. Utes should prevail based on talent & depth.

Ore on Sunday at noon. Final home game for Ducks. Utes will need to shut down Joseph Young---high scoring guard. Predict this will be a tough game. Love the Utes to break Altman's heart. Need Delon to assert himself & prove he should be POY in conference. Need Utes to wake up early & play hard from the start.

[311ute]

Two contrasting styles this week… Oregon St will slow the game down big time. They’ll sit back in their zone and try to keep us out of the paint. Oregon wants to get up and down the court, take the first good shot they get, and they are always in ATTACK mode. The one thing these two have in common is neither team has depth. Hopefully our depth and balance is the difference this week.

HUGE week for the program… if we can get a sweep, a win on Feb. 28^th could give us an outright Pac-12 Championship (I understand we end the year at the Washington schools, but I think we handle both of them). A sweep this week and I’ll also be re-setting my goals/expectations to a 2 seed.


http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Utah.html
RPIforecast.com has us has 12 pt. favorites Thursday and 10 pt. favorites Sunday. Seems too big… my guess is it’ll be more like -8 Thurs and -5 on Sunday.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...es/projections
Team Rankings give us a 85.3% chance against OSU and a 76.1% chance against the Ducks.

[Jarid in Cedar]

Right now, we are 1-3 vs tournament locks, 3-1 vs the bubble, and our best road win is @BYU. For some reason understood by nobody, the committee still uses RPI, which helps us a lot. We have no bad losses, but we've seen over and over again that quality wins help more than bad losses hurt.

I think the Arizona game next week will play a larger role in our seeding than this week's games, unless we lose them both.

RPI is the shark that jumped the shark, but Massey's has us at #9, ESPN's BPI at #9, and KenPom has us a #6. So the rating scales that use a little more analytics than RPI have us ranked highly as well.

[sancho]

RPI is the shark that jumped the shark, but Massey's has us at #9, ESPN's BPI at #9, and KenPom has us a #6. So the rating scales that use a little more analytics than RPI have us ranked highly as well.

That's what I'm talking about! Our blowout wins are really helping us with the computers.

[sancho]

Two contrasting styles this week…

I feel like we match up well with guard oriented teams. Three of our four best wins - WSU, BYU, and Stanford - were against guard focused teams. The Cal guards gave us a hard time, but we did well against the other guards - Lacy, Booker, Williams-Goss.

Our losses - Arizona, Kansas, UCLA, and SDSU - all came against teams with athletic size.

[sancho]

Totally agree.

I think we are in a position where we can lock up a 3 seed (barring a disaster) pretty soon, and if we beat Arizona and a few other things happen, we might even move up to the 2 line, though that would take quite a bit.

SI's latest projections are out. Utah stays in the 3-spot, and they have us in a region of death with Duke and Kansas. The East/West regions look pretty soft.

http://www.foxsports.com/college-bas...op-seed-021715

[311ute]

I feel like we match up well with guard oriented teams. Three of our four best wins - WSU, BYU, and Stanford - were against guard focused teams. The Cal guards gave us a hard time, but we did well against the other guards - Lacy, Booker, Williams-Goss.

Our losses - Arizona, Kansas, UCLA, and SDSU - all came against teams with athletic size.

I agree 100%... We struggle with length. The teams we've lost to have negated our ability to finish at/around the rim. Even UNLV, who isn't a great team, gave us some issues because of their length/size/shot blocking ability.

If that is true, these two match ups are good ones for us. Although Oregon does have Jordan Bell (2.9 bpg), neither team has much size or length inside. And like you said... both are "guard oriented teams".

[311ute]

SI's latest projections are out. Utah stays in the 3-spot, and they have us in a region of death with Duke and Kansas. The East/West regions look pretty soft.

http://www.foxsports.com/college-bas...op-seed-021715

I wouldn't mind a re-match with Kansas. Out of all the 2 seeds in that bracket, I think they're the weakest. I want to part of Wisconsin.

[SoCalPat]

RPI is the shark that jumped the shark, but Massey's has us at #9, ESPN's BPI at #9, and KenPom has us a #6. So the rating scales that use a little more analytics than RPI have us ranked highly as well.

We currently have played/will play 9 games against teams ranked 90-111 in RPI. UNLV (98) and South Dakota State (106) in the non-con; Cal (91, 1X), ASU (97, 2X), Washington (100, 2X) and Colorado (111, 2X) in league play. It would look nice if ASU could stay there and if Washington could get there.

[LA Ute]

The weekly Phil Cullen e-mail:

This week we head on the road to play two very good teams, Oregon State and Oregon. We open up at Oregon State on Thursday at 8 pm Pacific Time on the Pac-12 Networks.

Oregon State is currently 14-0 at home this year with an upset win over Arizona back in January. They are led by Gary Payton II who is a stat sheet stuffer doing a lot of things well. Averaging 13.6 ppg and 7.2 rpg and is leading the Conference in steals at over 3 spg. Alongside Payton II is Malcolm Duvivier averaging 10.5 ppg, Langs Morris-Walker 10 ppg, Jarmal Reid 8.7 ppg and Victor Robbins 7.7 ppg.

Oregon State plays a slower tempo game behind a very difficult 2-3 match up zone defense. They do a great job of forcing tough shots and are holding teams to 37.6% FG.

We will need to continue to be tough on the defensive end to get stops that will help us speed up the tempo. We are best in transition and pushing the ball ahead for easy baskets. We will also need to make sure to take care of the ball and keep our turnovers down.

On Sunday we will face the Oregon Ducks who like Oregon State are tough at home. With a record of 15-2 in Eugene they have been able to hold court at home. They are led by Joseph Young who is averaging 20.1 ppg in and Elgin Cook at 14.4 ppg in Conference play and have one of the best shot blockers in the league in Jordan Bell. Dana Altman has his team playing great basketball and currently they are currently 3rd in the Conference.

Oregon is uptempo offensively and defensively. They will play man to man, match up zone and will pick up defensive pressure the entire length of the floor. They have been really good at turning teams over and getting quick easy scoring opportunities. Their defense flows right into their offense as they look to score early and often.

We will need to be able to defend and stop their transition attack. When we do get stops we must box out and get the rebounds. Taking care of the ball offensively is also a priority.

These two games are not gimmes.

[justaute]

Not only do I not think these games are "gimmes", but also I wouldn't be surprised if we go 1-1; I'd go as far as thinking 0-2 is not out of the realm of realistic possibility. I'm not making any prognostication at all -- just not my thing. In addition to the home-court advantage, OSU also has a decent inside-presence on top of terrific guard-play -- notwithstanding its loss to USC. If we go on another one of those 5-7 minute scoring drought, then life will be difficult.

Quick thoughts:
- Loveridge can't disappear like he has against tough D.
- Poeltl can't be in foul trouble. I don't think Bach can play well against OSU's N'Diaye.
- I'm certain that Tinkle will try to swarm Taylor on 3-pt shots. Not unlike Loveridge, Tucker/Chapman need to hit their shots to open it up.
- Should be fun watching GPII vs D. Wright -- if that's the match-up.

The weekly Phil Cullen e-mail:



These two games are not gimmes.

[sancho]

Not only do I not think these games are "gimmes", but also I wouldn't be surprised if we go 1-1; I'd go as far as thinking 0-2

2-0, baby!

[justaute]

That's what I'm counting on. GO UTES!

2-0, baby!

[SoCalPat]

Oregon State is not good enough to go undefeated at home for a season and we're clearly the best team they have left.

[#1 Utefan]

Oregon State is not good enough to go undefeated at home for a season and we're clearly the best team they have left.

Does anyone know if OSU's DUI kid is still suspended or did the Tinkler reinstate him for this week's games?

[justaute]

Perhaps. Of course, other than BYU, we have yet to have a quality road-win.

Oregon State is not good enough to go undefeated at home for a season and we're clearly the best team they have left.

[Dwight Schr-Ute]

Colorado looks awful tonight. And I don't think it's because Oregon is amazing. I like our chances against the Ducks than I do the Beavers.

[SeattleUte]

Dampening your own expectation. Weaklings. Here's the brutal truth -- the Utes are favored by 7-8 tomorrow. Right now their favored in each of their games.

[justaute]

There are few of us who are students of the game, not just wishing/hoping/expecting wins. We have coached and played at D1 level and know a lot can happen -- weaklings or not.

Dampening your own expectation. Weaklings. Here's the brutal truth -- the Utes are favored by 7-8 tomorrow. Right now their favored in each of their games.

[sancho]

There are few of us who are students of the game

Stop. We're all students of the game here. Sure, this is a dangerous road trip, but 2-0 is the likeliest outcome.

[justaute]

A 5-pt game now.

Colorado looks awful tonight. And I don't think it's because Oregon is amazing. I like our chances against the Ducks than I do the Beavers.