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  1. #31
    Malleus Cougarorum Solon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Hard not to root for the Pirates in the NL, but man the Dodgers look unbeatable right now.

    I love the Tigers, but it will be a real fight to get through the AL playoffs.

    One things for sure - if the Tigers go up 3-0 in the ALCS and it looks like the NLCS will go 7, Detroit should tank for a few games to extend the series. They have had horrible luck with waiting their past two world series.
    Ha. Good point. I miss Kenny Rogers & the pine-tar hand.

    It's the Tigers' turn. They've been so close.
    σοφῷ ἀνδρὶ Ἑλλὰς πάντα.
    -- Flavius Philostratus, Life of Apollonius 1.35.2.

  2. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    the Dodgers look unbeatable right now.
    The thing about baseball is that there is just no such thing as "unbeatable" or anything even close to it when you're talking about a 7-game series. Even if you have the best division winner against the worst wild card team that just scraped in, it's shockingly close to just being a coin flip.

  3. #33
    Malleus Cougarorum Solon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Solon View Post
    I"m going to make a bold and unsubstantiated prediction: the Dodgers are not going to get to the WS this year. I think they're still a year away. Plus, nobody is talking about St. Louis, Atlanta, or Pittsburgh - three dangerous teams (okay, okay, I admit it's funny to talk about Pittsburgh being "dangerous", but I've waited a lot of years) that could throw some weight around in the playoffs. It's hard to imagine a 95-win team playing the "nobody believed in us" card, but this might be the year it happens in the NL.

    Like Easterbrook on TMQ, remember: "all predictions wrong, or your money back."
    Maybe the Bucs are dangerous, now that they've added Morneau.

    Should be a helluva September.
    σοφῷ ἀνδρὶ Ἑλλὰς πάντα.
    -- Flavius Philostratus, Life of Apollonius 1.35.2.

  4. #34
    Educating Cyrus wuapinmon's Avatar
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    Adam Wainwright is absolutely wrecking my fantasy team. I can't count on him for guaranteed points; he's like a yo-yo this year. He's on the cannot-be-dropped list too.
    "This culture doesn't sell modesty. It sells "I am more modest than you" modesty." -- Two Utes

  5. #35
    Malleus Cougarorum Solon's Avatar
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    Poor Houston. A 0.0 rating for Sunday's game.

    http://houston.cbslocal.com/2013/09/...0-0-tv-rating/

    Sometime in August, I finally quit saying to myself, "Man, the Astros are playing a lot of interleague games this season."
    σοφῷ ἀνδρὶ Ἑλλὰς πάντα.
    -- Flavius Philostratus, Life of Apollonius 1.35.2.

  6. #36
    Five-O Diehard Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    So the Red Sox (booooo!) surprise everyone and win the East. My question - why, with all our powerful statistical measures of performance, are we so unable to predict success from season to season. There are a few surprise teams each year. How am I supposed to believe that moneyball is so perfect at evaluation when it is so imperfect at prediction?
    The Sox (how dare you Boo) figured out they needed good players who were better teammates.

    Those guys love baseball. They all show up to the park early, talk about pitchers, watch film etc.

    That's the immeasurable part. (Oh yeah, they have a 2 game lead with 3 to play for best record in the AL )

  7. #37
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    That's really my question. The sabermetrics crowd would have us believe that there is no such thing as intangibles. And, if intangibles do exist, they certainly shouldn't be enough to swing a club from last to first, right?
    The intangibles are what I love about baseball.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  8. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    That's really my question. The sabermetrics crowd would have us believe that there is no such thing as intangibles. And, if intangibles do exist, they certainly shouldn't be enough to swing a club from last to first, right?
    It isn't intangibles; the Red Sox record is supported by their runs scored and allowed, which are pretty well represented by their underlying stats. The reason the Red Sox outperformed their expectations so significantly is because so many players outperformed their projections, which is due largely to luck. Look at guys like Nava, Carp, Victorino, and Iglesias, who all performed well above what their track records suggest you should have expected. Even Ortiz would be expected to start declining much more than he has.

    Pitching's the same way. There's no reason to have believed that Buchholz, Lackey and Lester would pitch as well as they have (although Dempster's probably been a little worse than you would expect).

    Player performance is less predictable from year to year than in any sport. Boston has just had a bunch of guys playing above their ability this year (well, to be more accurate, they've probably been playing to their ability, but have had fortunate results). Boston's a good team, but the collection of talent on that team does not support the idea of them being the best team in baseball.

  9. #39
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scratch View Post
    It isn't intangibles; the Red Sox record is supported by their runs scored and allowed, which are pretty well represented by their underlying stats. The reason the Red Sox outperformed their expectations so significantly is because so many players outperformed their projections, which is due largely to luck. Look at guys like Nava, Carp, Victorino, and Iglesias, who all performed well above what their track records suggest you should have expected. Even Ortiz would be expected to start declining much more than he has.

    Pitching's the same way. There's no reason to have believed that Buchholz, Lackey and Lester would pitch as well as they have (although Dempster's probably been a little worse than you would expect).

    Player performance is less predictable from year to year than in any sport. Boston has just had a bunch of guys playing above their ability this year (well, to be more accurate, they've probably been playing to their ability, but have had fortunate results). Boston's a good team, but the collection of talent on that team does not support the idea of them being the best team in baseball.
    Isn't luck, um, an intangible?

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  10. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    Isn't luck, um, an intangible?
    Nope, at least not the way I understand it. I think an intangible is something that can't be measured but that can be expected to improve performance. Luck cannot be expected to improve performance; it could improve, depress, or have no impact on performance (it can also be kind of measured a little bit in baseball).

  11. #41
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scratch View Post
    Nope, at least not the way I understand it. I think an intangible is something that can't be measured but that can be expected to improve performance. Luck cannot be expected to improve performance; it could improve, depress, or have no impact on performance (it can also be kind of measured a little bit in baseball).
    I think it's a violation of the rules of debate to raise a definition of terms after I have attacked your argument. 10 yard penalty. Replay second down.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  12. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    I think it's a violation of the rules of debate to raise a definition of terms after I have attacked your argument. 10 yard penalty. Replay second down.
    And after a booth review . . . your post was tipped 20 yards downfield. Penalty waived off, and my post stands.

  13. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Tigers just haven't been the same offensively since Miggy got hurt. Talk about backing into the playoffs.

    Does this say anything about WAR? The Tigers have essentially replaced Cabrera with an average player, and they are suffering much more than the stat would lead one to expect.
    Only if the total output by the rest of the team is the same as it was pre-Miggy-injury.

  14. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    But that's my point - without him in the line up, the entire offense has suffered. The whole idea of replacing one player with an average Joe makes sense, but doesn't it fail to consider the effect on how the rest of the team performs without their captain?
    There have been plenty of studies that show that there is no effect.

  15. #45
    Five-O Diehard Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    I'm just gonna keep talking to myself here. It's lunchtime.

    How short is the leash on Sonny Gray tonight? Any struggles out of the gate, and it's time to go to Colon?
    If Colon is available. The manager hinted his 'unique' warmup routine may keep him from pitching in relief.

  16. #46
    The St Louis Cardinals are kill-joys, murderers of fun, overdogs. I really wanted to see the Plucky Pirates continue their run, best feel-good team in baseball in years, but nooooo....

    I can't really get behind cheering for the Dodgers either, but I guess I grudgingly admit that I want LA to lose less than I want StL to lose (die a slow, painful death is more like it).

    I don't care for the Red Sox, or Yankees 2.0. I won't be rooting for them in the LCS.

    I guess I am now all-in on the Oak-Det winner. I think I like Detroit a little better, but Oakland probably has a better chance to knock off Boston. Detroit has the better overall roster, but they aren't healthy right now and their defense is horrible. Oakland will put up a better fight in Boston but probably doesn't have the horses to win or even make it a long series.

    Where is mpfunk? Shouldn't he be here saying things about the A's?

  17. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Help me settle an internal debate. Is Verlander simply the best pitcher in history, or is he actually better than every other HOF pitcher combined?

    We are also reminded why you keep playing Cabrera even though he is playing at about 20% capacity.

    Unfortunately for your argument, he's not even better than Kershaw. Heck, this year he was the third most effective starter on his team.

  18. #48
    Papi ties game 2 at 5-5 with a grand slam in the bottom of the 8th. Holy cow.
    "Don't apologize; it's not your fault. It's my fault for overestimating your competence."

  19. #49
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    I'll confess I stopped watching when the Tigers went to 5-0. Forgive me, Papi!

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  20. #50
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    If I were a Tigers fan I'd be pretty mad right now. What a collapse. But I'm a Sox fan, so I'm a happy guy.
    Last edited by LA Ute; 10-13-2013 at 09:46 PM.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  21. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    If I were a Tigers fan I'd be pretty mad right now.
    Tiger's starting pitching has shut down Boston. They still have to face Verlander and will likely see Sanchez and possibly Scherzer again.
    "Don't apologize; it's not your fault. It's my fault for overestimating your competence."

  22. #52
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hostile View Post
    Tiger's starting pitching has shut down Boston. They still have to face Verlander and will likely see Sanchez and possibly Scherzer again.
    True. But the Sox didn't want to go to Detroit down 0-2. The Tigers still have the edge, IMO. (I've been a Red Sox for a long, long time so my expectations are always low.)

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  23. #53
    Forward, never straight Freaky Girl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    I'll confess I stopped watching when the Tigers went to 5-0. Forgive me, Papi!

    As as did I.
    If you make friends with yourself, you will never be alone. -Maxwell Maltz

  24. #54
    Forward, never straight Freaky Girl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Why do we still allow home plate collisions? It's an injury-maker, and it adds very little in terms of strategy or excitement.
    I am not a fan of them either. He squared up like he was going into a tackle. What kind of rule would prevent them?

    That game was the first time I have seen the third base umpire tagged out.
    If you make friends with yourself, you will never be alone. -Maxwell Maltz

  25. #55
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    The 2013 MLB open thread

    Just don't block the plate. It's almost never necessary in order to make the tag.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  26. #56
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    As a Dodger fan I am enjoying seeing the Cards experience how it feels to fall apart and be humiliated. Sorry, just being honest.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  27. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    As a Dodger fan I am enjoying seeing the Cards experience how it feels to fall apart and be humiliated. Sorry, just being honest.
    Are you guys going to end up pushing out Donnie Baseball?

    Sent from my LG-E970 using Tapatalk 2
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  28. #58
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    Are you guys going to end up pushing out Donnie Baseball?

    Sent from my LG-E970 using Tapatalk 2
    I'm just a fan.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  29. #59
    Five-O Diehard Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LA Ute View Post
    As a Dodger fan I am enjoying seeing the Cards experience how it feels to fall apart and be humiliated. Sorry, just being honest.
    I was out and couldn't watch my Sox, but I have to say St Louis managers' comments about the corrected call surprised me.

    Everyone on the planet know the umps did the right thing and he's griping about it. To me that's poor leadership and rubs off on your players.

  30. #60
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    After that weird obstruction call to end Saturday night's game, it seems fitting that tonight's game ends on a pick-off, the first World Series game ever to end that way. (Last night's game was the first to end on an obstruction call.). So we're watching baseball history. That's the World Series! A decent end to a terrible sports weekend.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

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