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Thread: Pac 12 Basketball Thread

  1. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by Mormon Red Death View Post
    Looks Like I really want Utah to win on Thursday then. If Utah beat Ore St then they end up 10ths and will play ASU
    Yeah, I think our best case scenario is a 7-10 with ASU or a 6-11 with Colorado. If USC wins out and CU splits this week, then CU would drop to the 6 spot.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  2. #32
    Losses last night all by higher ranked/seeded teams:

    Washington St. Topped UCLA which all of the sudden puts the loser of the Oregon St. Utah game in line for the 12 seed, and drops UCLA to 12-5, opening the door for Oregon to win it outright with a Utah/CU sweep.

    Stanford beat Cal, so the Cardinal finish 9-9 in league play and Cal is now 12-6. Cal should still get a first round bye as a top 4 finisher.

    Washington beat USC, which puts them both at 9-8 in league play and means that spots 5-9 are all up in the air.

    Last night's results really threw a wrench into tournament seeding. The biggest winners from last night CU & Oregon will play tonight with Oregon having the chance to take a full game lead on UCLA with one to play and a trip to the Huntsman Center looming.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  3. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    Stanford beat Cal, so the Cardinal finish 9-9 in league play and Cal is now 12-6. Cal should still get a first round bye as a top 4 finisher.
    Strange that Stanford and Cal finished their regular season last night. It doesn't matter to Utah since we're going nowhere fast but if I were affiliated with one of the other contending teams I'd be a little grumpy about the extra rest and prep time that Cal gets in advance of the conference tournament. Seems like an unnecessary advantage.

  4. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    Losses last night all by higher ranked/seeded teams:

    Washington St. Topped UCLA which all of the sudden puts the loser of the Oregon St. Utah game in line for the 12 seed, and drops UCLA to 12-5, opening the door for Oregon to win it outright with a Utah/CU sweep.

    Stanford beat Cal, so the Cardinal finish 9-9 in league play and Cal is now 12-6. Cal should still get a first round bye as a top 4 finisher.

    Washington beat USC, which puts them both at 9-8 in league play and means that spots 5-9 are all up in the air.

    Last night's results really threw a wrench into tournament seeding. The biggest winners from last night CU & Oregon will play tonight with Oregon having the chance to take a full game lead on UCLA with one to play and a trip to the Huntsman Center looming.
    Shit... that means if utah loses tonight they get the 2:30 game. I better hope the flights all go as planned.
    "Be a philosopher. A man can compromise to gain a point. It has become apparent that a man can, within limits, follow his inclinations within the arms of the Church if he does so discreetly." - The Walking Drum

    "And here’s what life comes down to—not how many years you live, but how many of those years are filled with bullshit that doesn’t amount to anything to satisfy the requirements of some dickhead you’ll never get the pleasure of punching in the face." – Adam Carolla

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    Losses last night all by higher ranked/seeded teams:

    Washington St. Topped UCLA which all of the sudden puts the loser of the Oregon St. Utah game in line for the 12 seed, and drops UCLA to 12-5, opening the door for Oregon to win it outright with a Utah/CU sweep.

    Stanford beat Cal, so the Cardinal finish 9-9 in league play and Cal is now 12-6. Cal should still get a first round bye as a top 4 finisher.

    Washington beat USC, which puts them both at 9-8 in league play and means that spots 5-9 are all up in the air.

    Last night's results really threw a wrench into tournament seeding. The biggest winners from last night CU & Oregon will play tonight with Oregon having the chance to take a full game lead on UCLA with one to play and a trip to the Huntsman Center looming.
    Cal cannot fall out of the top 4, since everyone behind them already has seven losses and the Bears are in the clubhouse at 12-6.

    Very interesting scenario for spots 6-9. The possibility of a four-way tie for sixth at 9-9 between USC, Washington, Stanford and Arizona State is very real. USC should beat Wazzu to get there, and Washington needs to lose to UCLA. ASU should lose to Arizona at Tucson. Stanford is already at 9-9. Colorado could join the mix if it loses to both Oregon schools at home.

    Way too many variables in play to sort out Utah's seeding possibilities, but I'll give it a whack anyway. This much is known or almost certain: Utah finishes 10th by winning out. It finishes 12th by losing out. It loses any head-to-head tiebreaker with WSU. Utah can only finish 11th by losing a head-to-head tiebreaker with Oregon State in which Utah loses to OSU, but beats Oregon while OSU loses to Colorado and WSU loses to USC. In that case, the first tiebreaker would be head-to-head, with OSU having a 2-0 advantage.

    If Utah beats OSU, loses to Oregon, but OSU beats Colorado, Utah would win the tiebreaker for 10th by virtue of best conference win (Arizona State, since both Utah and OSU would have beaten Colorado and Washington)

    OSU-Utah, thankfully, likely eliminates the possibility of a three-team tiebreaker. In the event all three teams finish 4-14, Utah would again finish 12th by virtue of going 1-2 vs. OSU-WSU, while OSU-WSU went 2-1. WSU would then finish 10th by virtue of the better conference win (UCLA) and Oregon would finish 11th.

    Honestly, I would take losing out and getting Colorado in the 5-12 game. The next best scenario is USC finishing 6th, because 11th is the least-likely landing spot for Utah. Worst-case scenario is losing out to finish 12th, Colorado losing out to get into the 6th place tiebreaker and USC winning while ASU and Washington lose to claim 5th place outright.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mormon Red Death View Post
    Shit... that means if utah loses tonight they get the 2:30 game. I better hope the flights all go as planned.
    Not a guarantee, but certainly the strongest possibility.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by UBlender View Post
    Strange that Stanford and Cal finished their regular season last night. It doesn't matter to Utah since we're going nowhere fast but if I were affiliated with one of the other contending teams I'd be a little grumpy about the extra rest and prep time that Cal gets in advance of the conference tournament. Seems like an unnecessary advantage.
    Cal also goes 8 days without playing. There's something to be said about the negative effects of that kind of layoff, although they could be trumped if their opponent has to play a tough (overtime?) game the day before.

  8. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by SoCalPat View Post
    Cal also goes 8 days without playing. There's something to be said about the negative effects of that kind of layoff, although they could be trumped if their opponent has to play a tough (overtime?) game the day before.
    That's true. If Cal can shake off the rust and get through that first game then I think it is in the second and third game (if they got there) that the extra rest this week would really show up. I guess I just don't see why the conference wouldn't put Cal-Stanford on Saturday if it was their only game this week.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by UBlender View Post
    That's true. If Cal can shake off the rust and get through that first game then I think it is in the second and third game (if they got there) that the extra rest this week would really show up. I guess I just don't see why the conference wouldn't put Cal-Stanford on Saturday if it was their only game this week.
    Without any research, I'll bet it's because of TV.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by SoCalPat View Post
    Cal cannot fall out of the top 4, since everyone behind them already has seven losses and the Bears are in the clubhouse at 12-6.

    Very interesting scenario for spots 6-9. The possibility of a four-way tie for sixth at 9-9 between USC, Washington, Stanford and Arizona State is very real. USC should beat Wazzu to get there, and Washington needs to lose to UCLA. ASU should lose to Arizona at Tucson. Stanford is already at 9-9. Colorado could join the mix if it loses to both Oregon schools at home.

    Way too many variables in play to sort out Utah's seeding possibilities, but I'll give it a whack anyway. This much is known or almost certain: Utah finishes 10th by winning out. It finishes 12th by losing out. It loses any head-to-head tiebreaker with WSU. Utah can only finish 11th by losing a head-to-head tiebreaker with Oregon State in which Utah loses to OSU, but beats Oregon while OSU loses to Colorado and WSU loses to USC. In that case, the first tiebreaker would be head-to-head, with OSU having a 2-0 advantage.
    Utah also finishes 11th by beating OSU (which also loses to Colorado), losing to Oregon and WSU beats USC. That would put WSU 10th and Utah 11th. Quite frankly, that's a far more likely situation to finish 11th than the first one I mentioned.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    So, who is on the hot seat in the Pac-12?

    Dawkins? I think he stays. Should he? Stanford's patience with him will be rewarded?

    Robinson - he's gone, right?

    Anyone else?
    You could make the argument that Robinson is coaching for his job tonight. Winning doesn't necessarily guarantee he's back next year, but losing out and finishing last in the P-12 in Year 5 is enough to let him go.

    Ken Bone at WSU is also in a tough spot. Stanford hasn't been as good as perceived this year, but I think you let Dawkins back for another year.

  12. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    I understand the desire for a good seed, but losing out would be awful. We have just 3 conference wins - I want one more, and I DON'T want to finish last in the conference. I would rather have a bad first round matchup with USC than sit at last place.

    :iagree:
    “Man cannot discover new oceans unless he has the courage to lose sight of the shore.”
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  13. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by SoCalPat View Post
    Without any research, I'll bet it's because of TV.
    That was my thought too. Like I said, not a big deal for fans of the bottom dwellers but if I was a, let's say a UCLA, Oregon or Colorado fan I'd be bothered by the league creating an uneven situation here.

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    I understand the desire for a good seed, but losing out would be awful. We have just 3 conference wins - I want one more, and I DON'T want to finish last in the conference. I would rather have a bad first round matchup with USC than sit at last place.
    Totally agree. I was presenting a silver lining approach, seeing our odds of winning one of our next two are probably 3-1 against.

  15. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    So, who is on the hot seat in the Pac-12?

    Dawkins? I think he stays. Should he? Stanford's patience with him will be rewarded?

    Robinson - he's gone, right?

    Anyone else?
    Gotta imagine Robinson and Bone are in deep right now, but I'm not sure how fans of those schools perceive them. Dawkins may have bought himself another year last night if he hadn't already done so.

    No mentions of Romar yet? It seems UW always underperforms to the level of talent they have and this season especially has been a disappointment.

    How about Sendek? Last year he was on his last legs. They bounced back well this year but will this late fade cost him?

    It sounds like USC isn't going to give Cantu the job permanently.

  16. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by UBlender View Post
    Gotta imagine Robinson and Bone are in deep right now, but I'm not sure how fans of those schools perceive them. Dawkins may have bought himself another year last night if he hadn't already done so.

    No mentions of Romar yet? It seems UW always underperforms to the level of talent they have and this season especially has been a disappointment.

    How about Sendek? Last year he was on his last legs. They bounced back well this year but will this late fade cost him?

    It sounds like USC isn't going to give Cantu the job permanently.

    Sendek received a new extension at the beginning of last season(to the dismay of many ASU fans) so outside of a scandal, I think he is safe for another year or 2.
    “Man cannot discover new oceans unless he has the courage to lose sight of the shore.”
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  17. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by UBlender View Post
    It sounds like USC isn't going to give Cantu the job permanently.
    And USC will regret it if another Pac-12 school snaps him up. Doesn't he merit a major head coaching job after what he's done at USC this year?

  18. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by UBlender View Post
    Gotta imagine Robinson and Bone are in deep right now, but I'm not sure how fans of those schools perceive them. Dawkins may have bought himself another year last night if he hadn't already done so.

    No mentions of Romar yet? It seems UW always underperforms to the level of talent they have and this season especially has been a disappointment.

    How about Sendek? Last year he was on his last legs. They bounced back well this year but will this late fade cost him?

    It sounds like USC isn't going to give Cantu the job permanently.
    Wazzu and OSU are in the same boat as their coaches go. Both have three years left on their deal after this year. A Wazzu blogger told me they've spent a ton on facilities for football and likely don't want to pay the buyout this year. If Wazzu had ended the season on a giant losing streak, maybe, but the UCLA probably saves him. I imagine Oregon St. waits one year as well.

    Sendek's future is tied to Jahii Carson, if Carson bolts for the NBA, ASU will probably fire him but if Carson is back, expect Sendek to return as well.(that according to sports radio in Arizona).

  19. #49
    In other Pac 12 action, Colorado leads Oregon 37-21.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  20. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    In other Pac 12 action, Colorado leads Oregon 37-21.
    I bet the ducks are hoping that they get a shot at Colorado in the tournament. What a strange game for Oregon. This may be a motivating loss for the ducks.

  21. #51
    Updated standings and remaining games through 3/7 Hot off the presses:

    1. Oregon (12-5) 23-7: @Utah
    2. UCLA (12-5) 22-8: @Washington
    3. California (12-6) 20-10:
    4. Arizona (11-6) 23-6: vs. Arizona St.
    5. Colorado (10-7) 20-9: vs. Oregon St.
    6. Arizona St (9-8) 20-10: @Arizona
    7. Washington (9-8) 17-13: vs. UCLA
    8. USC (9-8) 14-16: @WSU
    9. Stanford (9-9) 18-13
    10. Utah (4-13) 12-17: vs. Oregon
    11. Oregon St. (3-14) 13-17: @Colorado
    12. Washington St. (3-14) 12-18: vs. USC
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  22. #52
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    Brutal. If Oregon has to play Colorado in the P12 tourney, take Colorado.

  23. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    Updated standings and remaining games through 3/7 Hot off the presses:

    1. Oregon (12-5) 23-7: @Utah
    2. UCLA (12-5) 22-8: @Washington
    3. California (12-6) 20-10:
    4. Arizona (11-6) 23-6: vs. Arizona St.
    5. Colorado (10-7) 20-9: vs. Oregon St.
    6. Arizona St (9-8) 20-10: @Arizona
    7. Washington (9-8) 17-13: vs. UCLA
    8. USC (9-8) 14-16: @WSU
    9. Stanford (9-9) 18-13
    10. Utah (4-13) 12-17: vs. Oregon
    11. Oregon St. (3-14) 13-17: @Colorado
    12. Washington St. (3-14) 12-18: vs. USC
    Tonight did a lot to determine our seeding for the tournament. Utah finishes 10th outright if it beats Oregon, or with a loss to the Ducks and losses by OSU and WSU. I would place the latter as the most likely scenario, especially since we've had enough unlikely results in the last 48 hours to cover a month's worth of games.

    Utah also finishes 10th if it loses to Oregon, but OSU wins and WSU loses. Utah would own the tiebreaker against OSU by virtue of its win against Arizona State.

    Utah finishes 11th if it loses, OSU loses and WSU wins. We lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with WSU.

    Utah finishes 12th if it loses to Oregon, and OSU and WSU both win. That would create a three-way tie for 10th. Utah would be first eliminated by virtue of its 1-2 record against OSU (2-2) and WSU (2-1). WSU would then win the head-to-head with OSU by virtue of its win against UCLA.

    The perfect storm: Utah beats Oregon and draws Washington in the 7-10 game. Do not ask me what has to take place for us to draw UW.

  24. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by SoCalPat View Post
    Tonight did a lot to determine our seeding for the tournament. Utah finishes 10th outright if it beats Oregon, or with a loss to the Ducks and losses by OSU and WSU. I would place the latter as the most likely scenario, especially since we've had enough unlikely results in the last 48 hours to cover a month's worth of games.

    Utah also finishes 10th if it loses to Oregon, but OSU wins and WSU loses. Utah would own the tiebreaker against OSU by virtue of its win against Arizona State.

    Utah finishes 11th if it loses, OSU loses and WSU wins. We lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with WSU.

    Utah finishes 12th if it loses to Oregon, and OSU and WSU both win. That would create a three-way tie for 10th. Utah would be first eliminated by virtue of its 1-2 record against OSU (2-2) and WSU (2-1). WSU would then win the head-to-head with OSU by virtue of its win against UCLA.

    The perfect storm: Utah beats Oregon and draws Washington in the 7-10 game. Do not ask me what has to take place for us to draw UW.
    Gotta really like our first round matchup if we can get either UW or ASU, not so much if we get USC or Stanford. As far as I can tell, all four are still a possibility if we finish 10th or 11th, but I'm also not going to even try to break down the scenarios for how 6-9 will shake out.

    I hope we don't finish 12th and doubt that we will but if we did that wouldn't be too bad of a draw (assuming we get CU, that is).

  25. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by UBlender View Post
    Gotta really like our first round matchup if we can get either UW or ASU, not so much if we get USC or Stanford. As far as I can tell, all four are still a possibility if we finish 10th or 11th, but I'm also not going to even try to break down the scenarios for how 6-9 will shake out.

    I hope we don't finish 12th and doubt that we will but if we did that wouldn't be too bad of a draw (assuming we get CU, that is).
    Funny how CU is a "decent" matchup for us, but death for Oregon. CU's win last night is even more impressive when one realizes Andre Roberson didn't suit up last night -- he was out with the flu.

    OSU has a win over CU this year. That game in Boulder should not be classified as a gimme, especially with how horrible OSU played against us. I expect a 5-point game at the final TV timeout Saturday.

    UW would be my dream matchup. My biggest fear about ASU is that they're a bubble team desperate to make up for the last two weeks.

  26. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    So, the Pac-12 has 5 teams going dancing in Lunardi's latest - Cal (10), Zona (5) , Oregon (7), CU (11), and UCLA (7).

    The two finalists in the Pac-12 tournament will get a bump in seeding, but right now, none are projected as Sweet 16 teams. It seems like everyone is backing into the tournament with bad losses lately. Cal was coming on strong until the Stanford loss. Oregon has really faltered. Zona's best wins were in December. Colorado is up and down. UCLA with the head scratching loss to WSU.

    So who is most likely to make a little run? Or, does our conference get shut out of the round of 16? Who is the most likely first round exit?
    Cal has the best guard in Crabbe, and only Howland rivals Monty's experience/success on the sidelines. They've also got March experience from last year. The 7-10 matchup is basically even, and if it can draw a weak two seed in the second round, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bears playing a second weekend.

  27. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    So, the Pac-12 has 5 teams going dancing in Lunardi's latest - Cal (10), Zona (5) , Oregon (7), CU (11), and UCLA (7).

    The two finalists in the Pac-12 tournament will get a bump in seeding, but right now, none are projected as Sweet 16 teams. It seems like everyone is backing into the tournament with bad losses lately. Cal was coming on strong until the Stanford loss. Oregon has really faltered. Zona's best wins were in December. Colorado is up and down. UCLA with the head scratching loss to WSU.

    So who is most likely to make a little run? Or, does our conference get shut out of the round of 16? Who is the most likely first round exit?
    So, who gets knocked out when we win the tourney? Or does the PAC-12 become a six team league?

  28. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Utah View Post
    So, who gets knocked out when we win the tourney? Or does the PAC-12 become a six team league?
    Six bid league, unless Colorado does something truly disastrous, like lose consecutive games to Oregon State. Everyone else is safe.

    In that instance, would we be a First Four team or would we get a 13 seed and not play until Thursday/Friday?

  29. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by SoCalPat View Post
    Six bid league, unless Colorado does something truly disastrous, like lose consecutive games to Oregon State. Everyone else is safe.

    In that instance, would we be a First Four team or would we get a 13 seed and not play until Thursday/Friday?
    if we win out that would give us a .500 record. In my opinion that would give us a12 or 13 seed.
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