Wilner's interesting thoughts on Stanford's and Utah's chances:
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/college...at-comes-next/
Wilner's interesting thoughts on Stanford's and Utah's chances:
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/college...at-comes-next/
"It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
--Antoine de Saint-Exupery
"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
--Yeats
“True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”
--John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell
Right. Stanford is like USC, in a much different way: We will lose a head-to-head competition for almost every recruit. When Stanford offers, we are pretty much out of luck. It's just part of the landscape we live in.Originally Posted by mUUser
"It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
--Antoine de Saint-Exupery
"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
--Yeats
“True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”
--John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell
Joel Klatt says the committee doesn't know what they're doing:
http://www.foxsports.com/college-foo...r-bears-110415
ESPN, the biggest share holder in college football, wanted the committee to put together these rankings during the season just to be able to stir the pot. The committee doesn't know what they're doing mid-season because no team has clinched a conference championship yet. I wish the committee would just publish a pecking order similar to the link that Seattle Ute posted the other day because that's really how it will work at the end of the year. Link: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...ttom-well&_r=1
A few things to watch for in the conference races during last weeks of the season:
The SEC west: Alabama is sitting at 3rd in their division and 4th in the country. Even with a win against LSU this Saturday they will still need Ole Miss to lose a game to win their division (very probable that LSU takes down Ole Miss, but we'll see). What would the committee do if both Ole Miss and Alabama win out?
Big 12: There are four teams still in contention for the conference title: undefeated Baylor, TCU, OK St, and one-loss Oklahoma. These four teams will all play each other over the next five weeks. Oklahoma is just as capable of winning that conference as anyone.
ACC: There's no way Clemsoning is dead. The only question is will it make a comeback before New Year's Eve?
I think it would be really interesting if the rankings weren't released until either after the regular season was complete, or, until the Sunday after the conference championship games were played just like the NCAA Tournament. I know why they do it - ratings etc. But when you think about it, none of these rankings ultimately are meaningful until all the games have been played. If the Big 12 is so concerned about being forgotten in the process, you schedule Bedlam and TCU/Baylor on the same weekend as the conference championships.
Speaking of the Big 12, Brett McMurphy from ESPN was on one of the local radio shows here discussing the rankings and they asked about the Big 12 expanding and he said that the conference wants to see what happens with the playoff this year and next before even considering expansion. That they like that every team plays one another in football and that everyone gets a home and home in basketball. It sounds like they are not necessarily convinced that whomever they bring in would give them enough new money to divide up that it would be worth it. Ultimately, I think they'll push to create a conference championship game for the current group of 10 teams they have.
He also said that the nightmare scenario for the committee, who seems to value head to head so much is Memphis and Ole Miss winning out. If Ole Miss wins the SEC, how do you deny an undefeated Memphis team at that point who beat Ole Miss soundly. He did, however say that as long as there is a 4 team playoff, he doesn't see anyone from the G5 conferences getting in.
“It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”
Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.
Because Ole Miss will have three top 10 wins on their resume (Alabama, LSU, Florida), and the latter win will have avenged the Rebels' earlier loss to the Gators.
Memphis has the meat-grinder of its schedule coming up -- home against Navy, at Houston, at Temple. If they destroy all three of those teams (current record of 21-2, with both losses coming to Notre Dame) to and there's a slew of 1-loss teams, they'll have a voice at the table.
This was a very popular situation to throw out by many in the sports world. It's funny how most of these situations work themselves out (2007 being a very notable exception).
No doubt.
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“It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”
Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.
Big changes coming next week. Three, possibly four unbeaten teams go down today. #2,LSU is down 14 in the 4th quarter, and #7 Michigan St, #8 TCU, and #13 Memphis have all lost.
“To me there is no dishonor in being wrong and learning. There is dishonor in willful ignorance and there is dishonor in disrespect.” James Hatch, former Navy Seal and current Yale student.
Wow. Go Huskers!
Alabama jumps from 3rd place in sec west to 1st today.
Suspect Oklahoma State rockets up the standings after it finally gets a signature win.
“Children and dogs are as necessary to the welfare of the country as Wall Street and the railroads.” -- Harry S. Truman
"You never soar so high as when you stoop down to help a child or an animal." -- Jewish Proverb
"Three-time Pro Bowler Eric Weddle the most versatile, and maybe most intelligent, safety in the game." -- SI, 9/7/15, p. 107.
If we don't end up in the final four, but end up playing in the Rose Bowl, I will find a way to still be very happy about this season. 😀 What are the odds of Utah playing in the granddaddy of them all?
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"It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
--Antoine de Saint-Exupery
"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
--Yeats
“True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”
--John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell
Stanford, Michigan, USC, UCLA (maybe), Oregon was 3rd in the "others receiving votes" category.
That's if we win out, and that would likely require USC and Michigan to win out. Oregon would almost certainly need to win out.
I'm convinced that the ACC is the weakling among the P5 conferences. It's never fair that a team that goes undefeated there is presumptively in the Final Four.
One thing I have learned in a long life: that all our science, measured against reality, is primitive and childlike -- and yet it is the most precious thing we have.
--Albert Einstein
The fact that life evolved out of nearly nothing, some 10 billion years after the universe evolved out of literally nothing, is a fact so staggering that I would be mad to attempt words to do it justice.
--Richard Dawkins
Be kind to all, for everyone you meet is fighting a great battle.
--Philo
Well once again, no shit. Who have they played beyond Notre Dame and Florida State? That's it. If Utah can win out... the strength of the PAC 12 will prove out.
No to mention their two big games were at home
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"Be a philosopher. A man can compromise to gain a point. It has become apparent that a man can, within limits, follow his inclinations within the arms of the Church if he does so discreetly." - The Walking Drum
"And here’s what life comes down to—not how many years you live, but how many of those years are filled with bullshit that doesn’t amount to anything to satisfy the requirements of some dickhead you’ll never get the pleasure of punching in the face." – Adam Carolla
A one-loss Stanford could surpass an undefeated Clemson in the rankings. A one-loss Utah team will not.
My guess at the top 12 on Tuesday:
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Notre Dame
5. Baylor
6. Oklahoma State
7. Stanford
8. LSU
9. Iowa
10. Utah
11. Florida
12. Oklahoma
I could also see Okie State above Baylor. That actually have a win over someone of note.
Yep, I was about to say Okie State above Baylor even before I read your comment at the end. Heck, I think there's a better chance of Okie State at 4 than at 6.
Tuesday predictions
1. Clemson (even)
2. Alabama (+2)
3. Ohio State (even)
4. Notre Dame (+1)
5. Oklahoma State (+9)
6. Baylor (even)
7. Iowa (+2)
8. Stanford (+3)
9. LSU (-7)
10. Utah (+2)
11. Oklahoma (+4)
12. TCU (-4)
13. Florida (-3)
14. Michigan State (-7)
15. Michigan (+2)
16. Mississippi State (+4)
The first 7 are pretty clear cut. Okie State can't have a gripe about being behind Notre Dame, whose schedule has been significantly tougher thus far this year (Sagarin has ND SOS at 16; OSU at 61). Baylor and Iowa could be flipped, but there's no difference between 6-7 when both teams will need to win out to get into the top 4. The bottom two are also pretty obvious -- Michigan and Mississippi State have the best resume of the 2 loss teams, and while I expect Memphis to take a bit of a tumble, it will fall out of the top 16, with no other G5 quite ready to take its place.
The murky middle is where the most debate will take place -- unless the committee does something really funky with its top 4. LSU and Utah are virtual mirror images of one another in Sagarin. Oklahoma is No. 1 in Sagarin's Predictor. How do you rate Florida's near-loss to Vandy? Compared to how Michigan State beat Michigan, the Gators ran up the score. Stanford is still Stanford, and it will receive a nice test Saturday against an Oregon team that seems to have found its stride. How badly do you ding TCU? Does it matter now that it still has Baylor and Oklahoma on the schedule, nearly lost to Texas Tech and let Iowa State hang around for a half.
Let's say Stanford/Utah are back-to-back this week (lets say 8-9) like they were last week (11-12). Let's also say Stanford squeaks by Oregon by only 3-7 points, in Palo Alto. Do you move Utah ahead of Stanford if it beats Arizona convincingly?
Last edited by SoCalPat; 11-09-2015 at 10:56 AM.
If I'm voting, I've got Clemson, Okie, Iowa and Bama. ND, Baylor, The OSU, and Stanford on deck.
I still contend Utah needs a ton of help. If Stanford loses before the P12 championship, we're toast.
“Children and dogs are as necessary to the welfare of the country as Wall Street and the railroads.” -- Harry S. Truman
"You never soar so high as when you stoop down to help a child or an animal." -- Jewish Proverb
"Three-time Pro Bowler Eric Weddle the most versatile, and maybe most intelligent, safety in the game." -- SI, 9/7/15, p. 107.
The only one-loss team Utah cannot beat out for the fourth spot is Alabama. We will beat out any one-loss conference champ from the ACC, Big 12 or Big 10. The catch there is, is that right now it seems highly unlikely that the ACC or Big 10 will produce a 1-loss champion. Our non-conference SOS will trump that of any Big 12 one-loss champ.
Alabama and Arkansas did everyone a favor by beating LSU and Ole Miss. The odds of two SEC teams getting into the playoff are virtually nil. As it should be.
We are massive Stanford fans in three weeks. But I cannot help but notice that Notre Dame has a game at Boston College the week before. Lots of ghosts in that game. BC's defense is damn salty. If it can find a way to score 17 points, it might win outright. But we need Notre Dame to lose. If it doesn't, we'll need to win the style points battle convincingly when we play Stanford.
Right on Oklahoma, wrong on Ohio State. OU has been killing fools and actually has the league's best non-conference win (at Tennessee). I would be hanging my hat on the hopes that the committee would view their loss to Texas as unacceptable.
1-loss Ohio State easily loses out to 1-loss Utah. Quite likely, OSU's one loss would come to Iowa, which would be Top 4 and undefeated. The Big 10 is not a two-bid league. Utah would have the stronger SOS and better wins, as well as a league title. It might result in a matchup in the Rose Bowl, but we wouldn't finish 5 to OSU's 4 under that scenario in a million years.
If OSU loses to Michigan State, it will certainly not even qualify for the Big 10 title game, as both would be one-loss teams and MSU holds the tiebreaker.
Michigan beating OSU could result in the Big 10 getting shut out altogether. Even if it beats Iowa the following week, Michigan wouldn't get in ahead of a one-loss Utah.
Our favorite 3 teams outside of Utah over the coming weeks are Stanford, Michigan and ... wait for it ... North Carolina.
If we win out the regular season, our floor is the Fiesta Bowl, and the ceiling is the CFP.
If we lose to a 11-1 Stanford, they likely go the the CFP, and we go to the Rose. If for some asinine reason the Trees are denied the playoff, they will get the Rose, but we will be ranked high enough that we will be placed in a NY6 game, most likely in Phoenix.
If we win out and beat Stanford, I agree with SCP, it would take some unfortunate turns of luck for us to miss out on the playoffs. There are too many built in losses for the teams ahead of us due to h2h play.
Last edited by Jarid in Cedar; 11-10-2015 at 11:59 AM.
And, we could likely face Iowa, which I think would be a pretty decent match up for us.
“It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”
Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.
Utah 10th.
Clemson, Alabama, Ohio St, Notre Dame are the top 4.
Iowa, Baylor, Stanford, Ok State, and LSU finish out the top 10.
If Utah finishes the regular season 11-1, they will be at the absolute worst 7th going into the P12CG, but that's assuming Ohio St, Iowa, Clemson, Alabama, Stanford, and one of Baylor/Ok State wins out going into the first weekend of December.
I don't get the love for tOSU right now. No top 25 wins, which means no top 25 games. No better than Baylor's schedule. How you could leave OkieSt or Iowa out in favor of tOSU is a mystery.
I think you're right but 1-3 should be irrelevant. I get 4-5 but don't think they belong till 4-5 translates to the field. I happen to believe they will prove to be best team in the country once they get their act together. But in week 10, they haven't earned it.
If Iowa wins out, it gets in. That OSU is in ahead of the Hawkeyes now is irrelevant.
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