What to do about China?

[Ma'ake]

(In the spirt of UB5, I could see tucking this one under the 2016 Presidential Campaign, but the China issue will persist long after the next elected president is dead. Apologies if this issue is in another thread. You guys tend to be way ahead of me on categorization).

Tomorrow is a big day - the UN Permanent Court of Arbitration is set to issue their long awaited verdict on the Philippines case brought to them regarding China grabbing insane amounts of the South China Sea / aka West Philippine Sea. The Chinese are very loud leading up to this decision, they've been buying off all kinds of nations around the world to agree with their view.

The US has sent an odd combination of A-10 Warthog "tank killers" and EA18G "Growler" electronic warfare aircraft to the Philippines, who not long ago kicked us out, after the downfall of dictator Ferdinand Marcos.

The rest of the nations in SE Asia, and Australia, New Zealand and even India, are nervous of expansionist China.

Here's a good interview of a BBC reporter who has been digging into this issue in depth: http://www.theatlantic.com/internati...-hague/490760/

And here's a pretty adept reading of tea leaves that suggest the Obama Administration may have figured out how to make the Chinese think twice about expanding to within 140 miles of the Philippines: http://warontherocks.com/2016/05/suc...borough-shoal/

[Ma'ake]

A couple of thoughts about the very small amounts of airpower we positioned in the Philippines:

The A-10s won't be hunting any tanks in the West Philippine Sea, obviously, but they can loiter a long time, and the 30mm cannon is not exactly a trivial weapon. I don't think the A-10s will be involved in any serious operations, except patrolling.

The Growlers are serious weapons, however. They can suppress any electronic communications, can almost certainly jam any aircraft radar the Chinese possess, and if need be, they can destroy the ground based radar the Chinese have set up on other artificial islands in that sea.

Based on our very small, but very potent air power presence, and if need be two carrier groups, I seriously do not believe the Chinese will attempt to press things further, militarily, in the short term.

I suspect they will keep yelling, moaning, claiming they're the real victims, etc, but they'll probably go dormant on any kind of military expansion, waiting out the US election. I don't think anyone really knows what a Trump Administration would really do, but it's a fair guess that Hillary would continue Obama's measured approach. The Chinese don't want to have Donald switch gears in the last part of this campaign. They'll wait it out.

[tooblue]

A couple of thoughts about the very small amounts of airpower we positioned in the Philippines:

The A-10s won't be hunting any tanks in the West Philippine Sea, obviously, but they can loiter a long time, and the 30mm cannon is not exactly a trivial weapon. I don't think the A-10s will be involved in any serious operations, except patrolling.

The Growlers are serious weapons, however. They can suppress any electronic communications, can almost certainly jam any aircraft radar the Chinese possess, and if need be, they can destroy the ground based radar the Chinese have set up on other artificial islands in that sea.

Based on our very small, but very potent air power presence, and if need be two carrier groups, I seriously do not believe the Chinese will attempt to press things further, militarily, in the short term.

I suspect they will keep yelling, moaning, claiming they're the real victims, etc, but they'll probably go dormant on any kind of military expansion, waiting out the US election. I don't think anyone really knows what a Trump Administration would really do, but it's a fair guess that Hillary would continue Obama's measured approach. The Chinese don't want to have Donald switch gears in the last part of this campaign. They'll wait it out.

An excellent graphic about the South China Sea:

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/wo...outh-china-sea

[Ma'ake]

That graphic impressively summarizes the SCS issue.

The Court ruled in the Philippines favor: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20..._135507744.htm (Xinhuanet is part of the Chinese state media apparatus.)

The Chinese have been perfectly consistent throughout in maintaining they reject and will ignore the Court's decision.

The really curious thing is they've been on a massive PR and diplomatic offensive leading up to this point, even to the point where trolls have popped up in comments sections on any media that has been covering this issue, attacking critics of China and aggressively claiming it is Uncle Sam who is the real bully, etc.

I don't know if the trolls are coming from China, or if they're just patriotic Chinese who've been instructed to stand up for China's position, wherever resistance occurs. Here's an article on the Australian-Chinese community coming to the defense of the "motherland" in the SCS issue: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-1...ispute/7318172

At work I can talk with Taiwanese colleagues about the SCS issue, and Filipinos, but even asking Chinese from Malaysia about this brings no response. The mainland Chinese tow the line, in general, even after becoming US citizens.

[Ma'ake]

China has really been leaning on the new president of the Philippines to drop the case, so they could avoid the international scorn.

For his part, Duterte has pulled a Trump, and said everything from he'll ride out to Scarborough Shoal on a Jetski to plant the Philippines flag, to suggesting he might be inclined to look the other way for a couple of years if the Chinese build a railroad to his hometown.

[Rocker Ute]

I have a lot more faith in HRC's foreign policy than Obama's. If China is going to pull something they should do it now, probability of Obama acquiescing is extremely high. Not just because that is his policy but his extreme desire to have a legacy of peace (at any cost) will mean he won't want to leave office with tension in place.


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[Ma'ake]

It looks like the Obama administration is playing this very smart, taking a lead in calming things down, letting China have some manueriving room to walk-back their unambigious threats and tough talk. The Chinese need to diffuse the tinderbox they created in fanning the flames of nationalism.

Regardless of China lining up economic recipients of Chinese foreign investment as allies on their side, the respected nations in the region, such as Australia, Malaysia, not to mention powers further away, Japan, Canada, Europe.

Give China a chance to rethink their message to the domestic population, to allow for a peaceful resolution.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-so...-idUSKCN0ZT2TY

So far, so good.

[Ma'ake]

The CCP has painted themselves into a corner.

They've been cultivating a kind of Chinese Manifest Destiny called "China Rising" that asserts that after the "Century of Humiliation", it is China's destiny to become the world's greatest nation, though other nations will try to hold them down, principally the US.

They never bothered to explain to their population that signing the UN treaty on the law of the sea essentially required them to give up claims to these rocks in the ocean. They tried to sneak in a big exception in 2006, but the Court in the Hague was emphatic in their ruling.

http://qz.com/730669/chinas-citizens...-it-is-theirs/

It's hard to know just how acute the domestic pressure is for military conflict within China, but suffice it to say the Chinese people aren't used to a wide variety of opinions, especially from their government.

Obama takes hits for appearing to be inconsistent in his foreign policy, but opposition to Obama - or any president - is just part of our national fabric. The Chinese have far less maneuvering room.