Season Efficiency 2017-2018

[The Thrill]

PLAYER	PER	+/-	PLAYER	PER	RANK
David Collette	18	+2.7	Chimezie Metu	18	#25
Parker Van Dyke	8	+3.7	Jordan Usher	14
Tyler Rawson	6	-10.2	Jordan McLaughlin	12
Chris Seeley	5	+1.2	Derryck Thornton	11
Donnie Tillman	5	-4.2	Elijah Stewart	9
Gabe Bealer	4	-1.6	Nick Rakocevic	8
Justin Bibbins	3	-13.1	Jonah Mathews	7
Kolbe Caldwell	3	+1.3	Shaqquan Aaron	7
Jakub Jokl	3	+1.3	Charles O'Bannon Jr	3
Christian Popoola	1	+0.4	Victor Uyaelunmo	0
Jayce Johnson	0	-8.6	Devin Fleming	0
Jake Connor	0	-0.5	Kurt Karis	0
			Harrison Henderson	-1

Simple enough....ball didn't go in the hoop

-10.1% from the field.
-8% from deep

USC shot 51% to Utah 41%
USC shot 32% from three to Utahs 24%
That was the difference. Add in Utah's +4 turnovers and you have a 16 point loss

USC is long and athletic. That type of team really gets in the passing lanes well and disrupts all the interior movement Utah loves.
Think Oregon a couple years ago. Teams like that frustrate Utah because they get wide and long and the ball movement just stalls.
Then Utah is forced to launch a last second three, Utah was 5/21 from deep
Add that all together plus USC had 1 extra day of rest and Utah coming off an emotional win. Recipe for a loss.

Utah fought hard, just didn't have enough in the tank. Being down Barefield and Johnson was big but USC was down guys too. Still have to play.
Everything else was even or close across the board. Just scoring, kinda the most important stat.

This was by far Bibbins worst game of the year. He's only scored under 10 PER 6 times all year. 3 on the road all losses (at BYU, Arizona and Colorado). 1 was game 1 vs Prairie View. The other was UNLV (27 pt loss)
This is very much Justin Bibbins team. With Rawson having a rough night shooting, Utah just didn't have it.

Utah can still finish in the top 4 and get a Vegas BYE. Need to beat Colorado and have USC beat UCLA.

Up next....game 29, final game...Colorado (senior night)

[The Thrill]

PLAYER	PER	+/-	PLAYER	PER	RANK
Justin Bibbins	18	+1.9	McKinley Wright IV	17	#28
Sedrick Barefield	12	+3.1	Lucas Siewert	14
Donnie Tillman	12	+2.7	Tyler Bey	10
Tyler Rawson	8	-7.9	George King	9
Jayce Johnson	7	-1.6	D'Shawn Schwarts	7
Chris Seeley	7	+3.0	Dallas Walton	5
David Collette	6	-8.9	Lazar Nikolic	-3
Parker Van Dyke	2	-2.2	Dominique Collier	-4
Gabe Bealer	1	-4.4	Namon Wright	-5
Jake Connor	0	-0.5
Kolbe Caldwell	-1	-2.6

First off, hope David gets better. That hurt my leg just looking at it.

The good news is guys like Tillman and Seeley stepped up and filled in for David when he went down.
One of the announcers said "Utah didn't have this gameplan going into the game and wouldn't have switched to it but it's working."
Seeley and Tillman were athletic enforcers out there and it was to Utah's advantage.

Colorado took +15 more shots in the game and had +24 possessions.
Utah was +13/+15 from the free throw line as Colorado was +9 on fouls.

Utah was +23.3% from deep shooting 40% for the game 8/20 and Utah was +5 makes from deep.
Colorado killed Utah on the glass, +10 offensive boards and +11 total rebounds. That's where they got the extra possessions.I
Their hustle kept them in the game. Utah just simply shot the ball better.

+3.3% from the field
+23.3% from deep
+13.3% from the line = Win

It was a pretty average game across the board except for blocks. 11 blocks combined marks the 5th time this year a Utah game had 10+ blocks. Bufs 5 Utes 6.

Big tournament coming up.
I'd say right now Utah is not in the big dance.
A win over Oregon gives them 33% chance
A win over USC gives them a 70% chance
A loss over Arizona gives them a 70% chance
A win over Arizona gives them a 100% chance (auto bid)

[U-Ute]

Nice to see Tillman's numbers jump. He's had enough time to get his legs under him. He's not a freshman anymore.

[The Thrill]

PLAYER	PER	+/-	PLAYER	PER	RANK
Justin Bibbins	21	+4.7	MiKyle McIntosh	17	#28
David Collette	16	+1.0	Elijah Brown	17	#28
Tyler Rawson	13	-2.8	Paul White	10
Parker Van Dyke	8	+3.6	Kenny Wooten	10
Sedrick Barefield	7	-1.8	Payton Pritchard	6
Gabe Bealer	4	-1.4	Victor Bailey Jr.	3
Jayce Johnson	2	-6.3	Keith Smith	2
Chris Seeley	0	-3.8	Troy Brown	1
Donnie Tillman	0	-8.9	Abu Kigab	1

First off, great effort from Collette. He said he wasn't going to miss the game due to the ankle. Guy is a badass.
Utah needs more guys like Collette and Alex Jensen. Guys who will get their hands dirty and play through some pain.
Toughness, Krystkowiak kind of guys. Guys like Mawien, Zamora, Daniels and Reyes who can't take the heat are fine to leave.
Before you jump all over me and say Mawien had a nice year at Kansas State, I am fully aware.
Reyes also had a good year at Pepperdine last year, I understand.

Guys like Bibbins, Rawson and Collette are Utah type players, Krystkowiak type players. Accepting that makes transfers much easier.

As for this game. Oregon owned the second chances and the glass. Ballgame.
+9 on rebounds. +10 on shot attempts. +18 on possessions. -3 on turnovers...and the efficiency score was still a tie.
It was there for Utah, they lost it.

In 11 losses Utah was -78 rebounds. 1-10 where they won the rebounding war.
In 19 wins Utah was +33 rebounds. 9-10 where they won the rebounding war.
Yes, Utah was only 10-20 in rebounding wins on the season.

Offensive rebounding was much of the same
In 11 losses Utah was -31 offensive rebounds. 5-5-1 where they won the rebounding war.
In 19 wins Utah was -54 offensive rebounds. 6-12-1 where they won the rebounding war.
Yes, Utah was only 11-19 in offensive rebounding wins on the season.

Granted, as a team Utah shot 45.6% on the season to their opponents 41.7% so they had more offensive rebounding opportunities (+105 more to be exact) but Utah has to get those as defensive boards to get to that next level.

Look at the top Offensive rebounding teams (North Carolina, Cincinnati, Duke) and total rebounds (Xavier, Duke, Gonzaga, Michigan St.). Rebounding wins games.

I'll do a full season recap soon. Maybe after the NIT game(s).
It's been a fun season, this team overachieved (7th preseason in P12) and played their hearts out. I'm very proud of what they did this year.

[U-Ute]

I wonder how that looks if you calculate the % of missed shots that we got an offensive rebound on. It should be pretty easy to calculate if you already have the shot totals.

[The Thrill]

I already calculate all of that. Goal is +25% of misses shots to gain an offensive rebound.
On the flip side the goal is +75% of opponent missed shots to gain a defensive rebound.

I've been reporting those numbers most of the season, I'll do a full report at sometime on that because I find it very interesting.

[The Thrill]

PLAYER	PER	+/-	PLAYER	PER	RANK
Justin Bibbins	21	+4.5	Michael Onyebalu	17	#28
Tyler Rawson	16	+0.2	TJ Shorts II	13
Donnie Tillman	15	+5.8	Garrison Goode	10
David Collette	9	-5.8	AJ John	7
Jayce Johnson	9	+0.7	Siler Schneider	3
Sedrick Barefield	7	-1.8	Rogers Printup	1
Gabe Bealer	6	+0.6	Joe Mooney	0
Parker Van Dyke	1	-3.3	Arell Hennings	0
Kolbe Caldwell	0	-1.5	Colin Russell	0

Tillman didn't fill up the stat sheet but he was efficient across the board.
3/4 from the field. 5/7 from the line. 5 rebounds, 2 assists and 0 turnovers. Good enough for a 15 PER.
If 5 or 6 guys did this every night, Utah would be a powerhouse in NCAA.

Bibbins continues to be the leader of this team. 5/11 shooting but 6 rebounds and 2 assists and a steal.

Utah was -13 on personal fouls and +12/+15 from the line. Ball game.
Utah was the aggressor and they used their size to overpower UC Davis into foul trouble.

I think the NIT three (1'8" further) didn't help the Utes. 7/28 was the 4th worst shooting percentage of the season.
Utah was +2 on makes from three but +11 in attempts. UC Davis was +4.4% better
The 128 points was the 5th lowest of the year (Colorado 118 total)

Utah collected 26.9% of offensive rebounding opportunities and 80% of defensive rebounding opportunities.
On the defensive boards this was the 5th best of the year (94.1% at Colorado 32 rebounds on 34 opportunities)
On the offensive board Utah had 26 missed shots and picked up 7 offensive boards.

Utah had a high ast/shot percentage 34% of all shots gained an assist. Goal is 28%. Vs UC Davis was the 5th best performance there.
Utah had 77 possessions (avg 63.2) due to 5 steals and +6 on rebounds.

It wasn't a great game but Utah won and now they play LSU on Monday in the 2nd round.
LSU is 18-14 - Lead by 5'11" Tremont Waters. They have a 6'11" guy who can shoot. 18/42 from deep 43% for the year Duop Reath. He's a Sudanese by way of Australia big man who spreads the floor.
LSU runs deep, usually 9 guys see double digits in playing time but in their 2OT first round win only 8 guys saw the floor. Reath had 26 pts and 11 boards. He outweighs Collette by 20 pounds but we might see Jayce on him.
FYI Reath first saw snow about 4 months ago, Utah could be strange for him.

LSU ranks 36th in FG%, 62nd best for turnovers. Both teams rebound about the same (meaning bad), LSU averages almost 8 steals per game (30th in the nation) so Utah must not turn the ball over.
They're a lot like USC with their pace and length. USC shoots better from three and rebounds better but LSU is better at defense and getting to the line.

LSU has 7 wins over tournament teams (Michigan, Houston, TAMU x2, Arkansas x2 and Missouri)
Utah has 3 wins over tournament teams (UCLA, Missouri and Arizona State)