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Thread: 2017-2018 NCAA Basketball

  1. #31
    They do this quadrant stuff to de-emphasize the RPI, which everyone knows is flawed. The quadrants are defined based on RPI, though, so it's just a cosmetic difference.

    Just grab some kenpom, sagarin etc, and be done with it.

    Of course, our RPI is elevated this season, so don't change until next year. In a sense, we gamed the RPI system this year. Kenpom has us at #61.

  2. #32

    Here's what #1 seeds look like

    Virginia 28-2 Kansas 24-7 Xavier 27-4 Villanova 27-4
    Q1 - 9-1 .900 Q1 - 10-3 .769 Q1 - 6-3 .667 Q1 - 8-3 .727
    Q2 - 4-1 .800 Q2 - 8-3 .727 Q2 - 9-1 .900 Q2 - 7-0 1.000
    Q3 - 10-0 1.000 Q3 - 2-1 .667 (Home vs Oklahoma St) Q3 - 8-0 1.000 Q3 - 8-1 .889 (Home vs St Johns)
    Q4 - 5-0 1.000 Q4 - 4-0 1.000 Q4 - 4-0 1.000 Q4 - 4-0 1.000

  3. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by The Thrill View Post
    Virginia 28-2 Kansas 24-7 Xavier 27-4 Villanova 27-4
    Q1 - 9-1 .900 Q1 - 10-3 .769 Q1 - 6-3 .667 Q1 - 8-3 .727
    Q2 - 4-1 .800 Q2 - 8-3 .727 Q2 - 9-1 .900 Q2 - 7-0 1.000
    Q3 - 10-0 1.000 Q3 - 2-1 .667 (Home vs Oklahoma St) Q3 - 8-0 1.000 Q3 - 8-1 .889 (Home vs St Johns)
    Q4 - 5-0 1.000 Q4 - 4-0 1.000 Q4 - 4-0 1.000 Q4 - 4-0 1.000
    Kansas has lost twice to Okie State.

  4. #34
    Right but the home loss is the quadrant 3 loss. It's considered a bad loss since it was in Kansas.

  5. #35
    Utah not even in the the last four in according to Lunardi. How the hell can ASU be firmly with a bye and Utah not even on the bubble?
    "Be a philosopher. A man can compromise to gain a point. It has become apparent that a man can, within limits, follow his inclinations within the arms of the Church if he does so discreetly." - The Walking Drum

    "And here’s what life comes down to—not how many years you live, but how many of those years are filled with bullshit that doesn’t amount to anything to satisfy the requirements of some dickhead you’ll never get the pleasure of punching in the face." – Adam Carolla

  6. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Mormon Red Death View Post
    Utah not even in the the last four in according to Lunardi. How the hell can ASU be firmly with a bye and Utah not even on the bubble?

    The committee has always cared about quality wins above all. Then bad losses. They care about volume of mid-range wins/losses less than anything else. ASU checks off the first two boxes. They have a lot of mid-range losses, which just don't matter much.

  7. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Mormon Red Death View Post
    Utah not even in the the last four in according to Lunardi. How the hell can ASU be firmly with a bye and Utah not even on the bubble?
    I have a sneaking suspicion that the only way ASU actually makes the field is to knock of CU and then Arizona in the Pac 12 tourney. I think that if Utah or UCLA could work its way to the final that Arizona St. is out. If you look where they are placed, it is such a shaky position. Sure, they have a bye, but they are an 11 seed.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  8. #38
    It's now official: Bibbins a 1st team all-Pac12 player.

  9. #39
    Even though Utah is currently off the bubble radar, it is still important that the teams in front of them take a nosedive in their conference tourneys.

    Here's a quick rooting guide for the week:

    Last four byes:

    Kansas St. - vs. TCU (3/8) - TCU is currently projected as a 6 seed
    Providence - vs. Creighton (3/8) - Creighton is currently projected as a 8 seed
    Arizona St. - vs. CU (3/7)
    Baylor - vs. WVU (3/8) - WVU is currently projected as a 4 seed

    Last four in:

    Texas - vs. Iowa St (3/7) - Gets TTech with a win
    USC - vs. Winner of Washington/Oregon St.
    UCLA - vs. Winner of Stanford/Cal
    Alabama - vs. Texas A&M (3/8) - A&M is currently projected as a 7 seed.

    First Four Out

    Louisville vs. Florida St. (3/7) - FSU is a projected 9 seed.
    Marquette - vs. Depaul (3/7) - Would get Nova with a win.
    Oklahoma St. vs. Oklahoma (3/7) - Oklahoma is projected as a 10 seed, safely in the field.
    Notre Dame - vs. Va. Tech (3/7) - Beat Pitt in the opening game by 3.

    Next Four Out

    Syracuse - vs. UNC (3/7) - Beat Wake in the opening round of the ACC tourney.
    Penn St. (Season complete)
    Boise St. - vs. USU/CSU winner (3/8)
    Nebraska (Season complete)

    Other games of interest:

    St. Bonaventure (Projected 10 Seed) - Gets the winner of Richmond/Duquense (3/9)
    Oklahoma (Projected 10 Seed) - vs. Oklahoma St (3/7)
    St. Marys (Projected 9 Seed) - Can our brethren from the South take them out of the big dance? (3/5) - L
    Last edited by DrumNFeather; 03-07-2018 at 08:01 AM.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Thrill View Post
    NEXT FOUR OUT
    Utah 19-10 Mississippi St - 20-10 Marquette - 18-12 Notre Dame 17-13
    Q1 - 3-5 .375 Q1 - 3-7 .300 Q1 - 4-7 .364 Q1 - 2-8 .200
    Q2 - 4-4 .500 Q2 - 3-3 .500 Q2 - 4-3 .571 Q2 - 4-2 .667
    Q3 - 6-1 .857 Q3 - 6-0 1.000 Q3 - 4-2 .667 Q3 - 5-3 .625
    Q4 - 6-0 1.000 Q4 - 8-0 1.000 Q4 - 6-0 1.000 Q4 - 6-0 1.000




    FIRST FOUR OUT
    UCLA 20-10 Penn State 21-12 Nebraska 22-10 Washington 20-11
    Q1 - 3-7 .300 Q1 - 3-8 .273 Q1 - 1-6 .143 Q1 - 3-7 .300
    Q2 - 5-1 .833 Q2 - 2-2 .500 Q2 - 2-3 .400 Q2 - 2-3 .400
    Q3 - 6-2 .750 Q3 - 6-2 .750 Q3 - 9-1 .900 Q3 - 8-1 .889
    Q4 - 6-0 1.000 Q4 - 10-0 1.000 Q4 - 10-0 1.000 Q4 - 7-0 1.000




    LAST FOUR IN
    Providence 19-10 Louisville 19-12 USC 21-10 Texas 18-13
    Q1 - 3-8 .273 Q1 - 3-10 .231 Q1 - 4-6 .400 Q1 - 4-10 .286
    Q2 - 5-1 .833 Q2 - 1-2 .333 Q2 - 5-3 .625 Q2 - 4-3 .571
    Q3 - 7-0 .800 Q3 - 9-0 1.000 Q3 - 6-0 1.000 Q3 - 5-0 1.000
    Q4 - 4-1 .800 (lost to UMass 243) Q4 - 7-0 1.000 Q4 - 6-1 .857 (lost at home to Princeton 221) Q4 - 5-0 1.000




    QUESTIONABLES
    Arizona State 20-10
    Q1 - 3-5 .375
    Q2 - 4-4 .500
    Q3 - 8-1 .889
    Q4 - 5-0 1.000

    Taking a look at those numbers Utah is the 2nd best Quadrant 1 team in the group behind USC
    Utah ranks 6th for quadrant 2
    Utah ranks 7th for quadrant 3 (Just the UNLV game keeping them from 7-0)
    Utah ranks 1st for quadrant 4 (USC and Providence getting in with +220 RPI losses is sickening)

    Let me know if there are other teams you'd like me to pull a report on.
    We also played fewer Q1 games than any other team out there besides Nebraska, whose situation is much like ours -- good conference finish, lousy non-con, few quality wins.

  11. #41
    I think all of this is academic, b/c Collette's ankle injury looked severe enough to me that I would be shocked if he played this week, esp. consecutive days. Or next week for that matter. Hope I'm wrong.

  12. #42
    Welcome to the start of "basketball in my office" season! ACC tournament time!

  13. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by concerned View Post
    I think all of this is academic, b/c Collette's ankle injury looked severe enough to me that I would be shocked if he played this week, esp. consecutive days. Or next week for that matter. Hope I'm wrong.
    Collette’s status likely won’t be revealed until game time. He rolled his ankle in the first half on Saturday and went to the hospital for X-rays in the middle of the game. He returned on crutches at the end of the Senior Day ceremony on the court. The X-rays were negative for any broken bones, so it’s conceivable he could play this week.
    "Be a philosopher. A man can compromise to gain a point. It has become apparent that a man can, within limits, follow his inclinations within the arms of the Church if he does so discreetly." - The Walking Drum

    "And here’s what life comes down to—not how many years you live, but how many of those years are filled with bullshit that doesn’t amount to anything to satisfy the requirements of some dickhead you’ll never get the pleasure of punching in the face." – Adam Carolla

  14. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    Even though Utah is currently off the bubble radar, it is still important that the teams in front of them take a nosedive in their conference tourneys.

    Here's a quick rooting guide for the week:

    Last four byes:

    Kansas St. - vs. TCU (3/8) - TCU is currently projected as a 6 seed
    Providence - vs. Creighton (3/8) - Creighton is currently projected as a 8 seed
    Arizona St. - vs. CU (3/7)
    Baylor - vs. WVU (3/8) - WVU is currently projected as a 4 seed

    Other games of interest:

    St. Bonaventure (Projected 10 Seed) - Gets the winner of Richmond/Duquense (3/9)
    Oklahoma (Projected 10 Seed) - vs. Oklahoma St (3/7)
    St. Marys (Projected 9 Seed) - Can our brethren from the South take them out of the big dance? (3/5) - L
    After last night's results, Lunardi has moved St. Mary's to "last four byes" and for some strange reason has ASU back safely in the field.

    Here's my hot take...if you insist that both of these teams are worthy of the 68 team field, put them in a play-in game against each other. As it stands, I think St. Mary's will get bumped down and eventually left out of the field completely. But hey - our loss to BYU looks better!
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  15. #45
    Senior Member Scorcho's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    After last night's results, Lunardi has moved St. Mary's to "last four byes" and for some strange reason has ASU back safely in the field.

    Here's my hot take...if you insist that both of these teams are worthy of the 68 team field, put them in a play-in game against each other. As it stands, I think St. Mary's will get bumped down and eventually left out of the field completely. But hey - our loss to BYU looks better!
    ASU exposed a flaw in the quadrant wins formula.

    An incredible OOC season should count for something (ASU went 12-0), but shouldn't trump a poor conference season. Especially considering it wasn't the result of an injury or two. You can't go 12-0 and finish 8-10. If they win 2 games in the tournament I would consider them, but not before that.

  16. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    After last night's results, Lunardi has moved St. Mary's to "last four byes" and for some strange reason has ASU back safely in the field.

    Here's my hot take...if you insist that both of these teams are worthy of the 68 team field, put them in a play-in game against each other. As it stands, I think St. Mary's will get bumped down and eventually left out of the field completely. But hey - our loss to BYU looks better!
    There are some unwritten rules for mid majors to get at-large bids. They include (1) scheduling 3-4 good teams OOC, (2) beating 1-2 good teams OOC, (3) losing to 1 or fewer of the bad teams in your conference. For the past 5 or so years, this recipe has been enough to get a middie into the dance.

    St Mary's is really pushing it. They did not schedule ANY good OOC games and therefore have NO good OOC wins. ESPN ranks their nonCon SOS as 333! They did manage to cruise through the bad WCC just fine.

    Basically, the case for St Mary's is that they beat Gonzaga once and managed not to lose to the awful teams they played against. It's not a strong case.

  17. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    There are some unwritten rules for mid majors to get at-large bids. They include (1) scheduling 3-4 good teams OOC, (2) beating 1-2 good teams OOC, (3) losing to 1 or fewer of the bad teams in your conference. For the past 5 or so years, this recipe has been enough to get a middie into the dance.

    St Mary's is really pushing it. They did not schedule ANY good OOC games and therefore have NO good OOC wins. ESPN ranks their nonCon SOS as 333! They did manage to cruise through the bad WCC just fine.

    Basically, the case for St Mary's is that they beat Gonzaga once and managed not to lose to the awful teams they played against. It's not a strong case.
    Certainly not, and there are reports out there that they turned down games with teams like Rhode Island and others that would boost that non-conference SOS. Of the P5 teams they played, they lost to Wazzu, Georgia, and beat Cal. That right there should be an immediate disqualifier. Truth is, you can't reward a guy like Bennett for playing that schedule, and if you do, then you also can't turn around and tell a team like Utah, who plays in a fair superior league, that they don't schedule tough enough.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  18. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by Scorcho View Post
    If they win 2 games in the tournament I would consider them, but not before that.
    I'm torn on the game tomorrow. If ASU wins, we get another ASU/Zona rivalry game, which I like. On the other hand, if ASU loses, it puts the committee in a real interesting spot. Will they double down on their quadrant criteria, or will they allow common sense into the equation?

  19. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    I'm torn on the game tomorrow. If ASU wins, we get another ASU/Zona rivalry game, which I like. On the other hand, if ASU loses, it puts the committee in a real interesting spot. Will they double down on their quadrant criteria, or will they allow common sense into the equation?
    I think at best they get into a play-in game if they lose to CU tomorrow. There will be enough bubble teams that will get 1-2-3 more wins while ASU sits on the sidelines (assuming that happens) that I could see them, like St. Mary's just slip out of the field.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  20. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    Certainly not, and there are reports out there that they turned down games with teams like Rhode Island and others that would boost that non-conference SOS. Of the P5 teams they played, they lost to Wazzu, Georgia, and beat Cal. That right there should be an immediate disqualifier. Truth is, you can't reward a guy like Bennett for playing that schedule, and if you do, then you also can't turn around and tell a team like Utah, who plays in a fair superior league, that they don't schedule tough enough.
    Truth. If St Mary's gets in with the #333 OOC schedule, what incentive do any mid-majors have to schedule up?

  21. #51
    As Ute fans, its in our nature, but we need to cheer against our friends to the south this evening! No bid thieves!

  22. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by UtahsMrSports View Post
    As Ute fans, its in our nature, but we need to cheer against our friends to the south this evening! No bid thieves!
    They did their job by knocking St. Mary's off...that team has no argument for the big dance. None!
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  23. #53
    Don McLean was on with Riley the other day, and they were talking about this stat that we've heard several times that Utah would be better off to have not played those SWAC teams because they drag down the team's RPI, and of course we've certainly been clamoring for that ourselves. McLean made the point that these games are how these smaller schools fund their athletic programs for the year, and that in many cases they are playing 2-3 games in 2-3-4 nights when they come to Utah, etc., and what would become of those programs if the Utah's of the world stopped playing them. Now, that isn't necessarily a burden that Utah or any other P5 school should have to bear, but I thought it was a really interesting point, and as long as these 200+ RPI teams weigh your schedule down, eventually you are gonna have to get wise and not schedule those games.

    More of this discussion to come in the off-season, but I thought it was an interesting point.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  24. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    Don McLean was on with Riley the other day, and they were talking about this stat that we've heard several times that Utah would be better off to have not played those SWAC teams because they drag down the team's RPI, and of course we've certainly been clamoring for that ourselves. McLean made the point that these games are how these smaller schools fund their athletic programs for the year, and that in many cases they are playing 2-3 games in 2-3-4 nights when they come to Utah, etc., and what would become of those programs if the Utah's of the world stopped playing them. Now, that isn't necessarily a burden that Utah or any other P5 school should have to bear, but I thought it was a really interesting point, and as long as these 200+ RPI teams weigh your schedule down, eventually you are gonna have to get wise and not schedule those games.

    More of this discussion to come in the off-season, but I thought it was an interesting point.
    Sure would be easy for the NCAA selection committee to care less about having a couple of these games on the schedule. But as long as they are going to be married to the RPI, we should not schedule these games. Let those teams fend for themselves.

  25. #55
    Larry Krystkowiak was awarded the AP Pac-12 Coach of the Year. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...nors/32665329/

  26. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    Even though Utah is currently off the bubble radar, it is still important that the teams in front of them take a nosedive in their conference tourneys.

    Here's a quick rooting guide for the week:

    Last four byes:

    Arizona St. - vs. CU (3/7)

    Last four in:

    Texas - vs. Iowa St (3/7) - Gets TTech with a win
    USC - vs. Winner of Washington/Oregon St.
    UCLA - vs. Winner of Stanford/Cal

    First Four Out

    Louisville vs. Florida St. (3/7) - FSU is a projected 9 seed.
    Marquette - vs. Depaul (3/7) - Would get Nova with a win.
    Oklahoma St. vs. Oklahoma (3/7) - Oklahoma is projected as a 10 seed, safely in the field.
    Notre Dame - vs. Va. Tech (3/7) - Beat Pitt in the opening game by 3.

    Next Four Out

    Syracuse - vs. UNC (3/7) - Beat Wake in the opening round of the ACC tourney.

    Other games of interest:

    Oklahoma (Projected 10 Seed) - vs. Oklahoma St (3/7)
    Lots of games to pay attention to today.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  27. #57
    Article in SD Tribune about Gonzaga (and maybe BYU) to the MWC:

    http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/...307-story.html

    I've asked this before, but it's relevant again now. Should the Pac-12 add Gonzaga?

    Argument for: Gonzaga just played for the national title and has been ranked consistently for the past decade. Our conference, on the other hand, has struggled in basketball in a big way. Adding the Zags increases the strength of the conference.

    Arguments against: What if Gonzaga returns to mediocrity? What if Few leaves? We are stuck with a tiny school in Spokane. Scheduling would be awkward with 13 teams. For the snobs who care, Gonzaga doesn't fit the academic profile of the conference. Gonzaga to the Pac-12 makes recruiting for the other Pac-12 schools that much tougher.

  28. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Article in SD Tribune about Gonzaga (and maybe BYU) to the MWC:

    http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/...307-story.html

    I've asked this before, but it's relevant again now. Should the Pac-12 add Gonzaga?

    Argument for: Gonzaga just played for the national title and has been ranked consistently for the past decade. Our conference, on the other hand, has struggled in basketball in a big way. Adding the Zags increases the strength of the conference.

    Arguments against: What if Gonzaga returns to mediocrity? What if Few leaves? We are stuck with a tiny school in Spokane. Scheduling would be awkward with 13 teams. For the snobs who care, Gonzaga doesn't fit the academic profile of the conference. Gonzaga to the Pac-12 makes recruiting for the other Pac-12 schools that much tougher.
    from that article, the MWC was ready to put it to a vote, but now will hold off till next month

  29. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Article in SD Tribune about Gonzaga (and maybe BYU) to the MWC:

    http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/...307-story.html

    I've asked this before, but it's relevant again now. Should the Pac-12 add Gonzaga?

    Argument for: Gonzaga just played for the national title and has been ranked consistently for the past decade. Our conference, on the other hand, has struggled in basketball in a big way. Adding the Zags increases the strength of the conference.

    Arguments against: What if Gonzaga returns to mediocrity? What if Few leaves? We are stuck with a tiny school in Spokane. Scheduling would be awkward with 13 teams. For the snobs who care, Gonzaga doesn't fit the academic profile of the conference. Gonzaga to the Pac-12 makes recruiting for the other Pac-12 schools that much tougher.

    I don't think Gonzaga makes sense for the PAC12. However, it makes total sense for the MWC. It seems like Gonzaga and Few have been particularly frustrated by the lack of progress made by teams in the WCC. It appears they are ready to do something about it and they should.

  30. #60
    Boston College takes out NC State in the ACC tournament. NC State was a 9 seed in today's projection and had an RPI of 52.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

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