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Thread: PAC-12 hoops in 2017-2018

  1. #151
    League RPIs as of this morning:

    Arizona 18
    USC 31
    ASU 39
    UCLA 48
    Wash 49
    Utah 53
    Oregon 71
    Stanford 83
    Colorado 85

    Everyone else 150 or worse.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  2. #152
    Buffs take care of the Bruins...the path to the 3 seed is there for the Utes. The league has really cannibalized itself this year.

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    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  3. #153
    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    Buffs take care of the Bruins...the path to the 3 seed is there for the Utes. The league has really cannibalized itself this year.

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    While I certainly hope we win on Saturday, the 3 seed gives us a potential semi final with USC. I just don't like our odds against them.

  4. #154
    Quote Originally Posted by UtahsMrSports View Post
    While I certainly hope we win on Saturday, the 3 seed gives us a potential semi final with USC. I just don't like our odds against them.
    The semi vs Zona is only more appealing if Ayton get suspended. Otherwise, either way we'll have to play a team that beat us twice.

  5. #155
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    The semi vs Zona is only more appealing if Ayton get suspended. Otherwise, either way we'll have to play a team that beat us twice.
    Unless Arizona gets Trier back, they are a better draw for us, with or without Ayton. Either game is a long shot but we have been beaten up twice by USC and competed pretty well twice with Arizona

  6. #156
    Administrator U-Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    Buffs take care of the Bruins...the path to the 3 seed is there for the Utes. The league has really cannibalized itself this year.

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    I think we need UCLA to lose to USC to get 4th. I don’t think we own the tiebreaker over UCLA do we? We split and they own point differential.

    I don’t see Stanford losing to Cal.




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  7. #157
    Quote Originally Posted by U-Ute View Post
    I think we need UCLA to lose to USC to get 4th. I don’t think we own the tiebreaker over UCLA do we? We split and they own point differential.

    I don’t see Stanford losing to Cal.
    I think Stanford has the AZ schools. They should lose.

    If we win, we should get 3rd or 4th.

  8. #158
    Quote Originally Posted by U-Ute View Post
    I think we need UCLA to lose to USC to get 4th. I don’t think we own the tiebreaker over UCLA do we? We split and they own point differential.

    I don’t see Stanford losing to Cal.




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    Stanford is at the zona schools. They just have to lose 1 of those 2

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    "Be a philosopher. A man can compromise to gain a point. It has become apparent that a man can, within limits, follow his inclinations within the arms of the Church if he does so discreetly." - The Walking Drum

    "And here’s what life comes down to—not how many years you live, but how many of those years are filled with bullshit that doesn’t amount to anything to satisfy the requirements of some dickhead you’ll never get the pleasure of punching in the face." – Adam Carolla

  9. #159
    Alright, so as we head into the final week of the season, here are the standings:

    1. Arizona (12-4) - vs. Stanford, Call Prediction (2-0 this week). #1 Seed
    2. USC (12-5) - vs. UCLA Prediction (1-0 this week). #2 Seed
    3. Stanford (10-6) - @ Arizona, ASU Prediction (0-2 this week). #5 Seed
    4. UCLA (10-7) - @ USC Prediction (0-1 this week). #6 Seed
    5. Utah (10-7) - vs. Colorado Prediction (1-0 this week). #3 Seed.
    6. Oregon (9-7) - @ Wazzu, Washington. Prediction (2-0 this week). #4 Seed
    7. Wash (9-7) - vs. OSU, Oregon Prediction (1-1 this week). #7 Seed
    8. Colorado (8-9) - @ Utah Prediction (0-1 this week). #9 Seed
    9. ASU (7-9) - vs. Cal, Stanford. Prediction (2-0 this week). #8 Seed
    10. OSU (6-10) - @ Wash, Wazzu Prediction (0-2 this week). #10 Seed
    11. Wazzu (3-13) - vs. Oregon, OSU Prediction (1-1 this week). #11 Seed
    12. Cal (2-14) - @ASU, Arizona. Prediction (0-2 this week). #12 Seed

    This assumes three teams finish at 10-8 (Stanford, UCLA, Wash) and in that Scenario, Stanford is 3-1 vs. the other two, UCLA is 2-1, and Wash is 0-3

    In summary, the DNF crystal ball says:

    1. Arizona
    2. USC
    3. Utah
    4. Oregon
    5. Stanford
    6. UCLA
    7. Wash
    8. ASU
    9. CU
    10. OSU
    11. Wazzu
    12. Cal
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  10. #160
    Senior Member Scorcho's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    Alright, so as we head into the final week of the season, here are the standings:

    1. Arizona (12-4) - vs. Stanford, Call Prediction (2-0 this week). #1 Seed
    2. USC (12-5) - vs. UCLA Prediction (1-0 this week). #2 Seed
    3. Stanford (10-6) - @ Arizona, ASU Prediction (0-2 this week). #5 Seed
    4. UCLA (10-7) - @ USC Prediction (0-1 this week). #6 Seed
    5. Utah (10-7) - vs. Colorado Prediction (1-0 this week). #3 Seed.
    6. Oregon (9-7) - @ Wazzu, Washington. Prediction (2-0 this week). #4 Seed
    7. Wash (9-7) - vs. OSU, Oregon Prediction (1-1 this week). #7 Seed
    8. Colorado (8-9) - @ Utah Prediction (0-1 this week). #9 Seed
    9. ASU (7-9) - vs. Cal, Stanford. Prediction (2-0 this week). #8 Seed
    10. OSU (6-10) - @ Wash, Wazzu Prediction (0-2 this week). #10 Seed
    11. Wazzu (3-13) - vs. Oregon, OSU Prediction (1-1 this week). #11 Seed
    12. Cal (2-14) - @ASU, Arizona. Prediction (0-2 this week). #12 Seed

    This assumes three teams finish at 10-8 (Stanford, UCLA, Wash) and in that Scenario, Stanford is 3-1 vs. the other two, UCLA is 2-1, and Wash is 0-3

    In summary, the DNF crystal ball says:

    1. Arizona
    2. USC
    3. Utah
    4. Oregon
    5. Stanford
    6. UCLA
    7. Wash
    8. ASU
    9. CU
    10. OSU
    11. Wazzu
    12. Cal
    blows me away that ASU finishing 8th appears to be a lock for the big dance, but #2 USC is squarely on the bubble, I get that ASU had a spectacular pre-conference season, but....

  11. #161
    Quote Originally Posted by Scorcho View Post
    blows me away that ASU finishing 8th appears to be a lock for the big dance, but #2 USC is squarely on the bubble, I get that ASU had a spectacular pre-conference season, but....
    This whole season seems to be a referendum on Pac 12 non-con scheduling. Most of the experts seem to universally feel that the Pac 12 just doesn't schedule OOC strong enough and so when you have a year like this year where (I think) a number of teams are good and just beat up on each other, it looks more like the conference is bad because there are very few marquee wins out there for the league. It still blows me away that the Utes did not add that extra non-conference game that they could have. Granted, it probably would've ended up being a Grand Canyon or something, but there were no shortage of potential RPI 100 wins that I think would've come to the Huntsman Center, and the Utes would potentially be heading into the Pac 12 tourney as a 20 win team.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  12. #162
    Quote Originally Posted by Scorcho View Post
    blows me away that ASU finishing 8th appears to be a lock for the big dance, but #2 USC is squarely on the bubble, I get that ASU had a spectacular pre-conference season, but....
    It really illustrates how messed up our selection process can be.

  13. #163
    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    This whole season seems to be a referendum on Pac 12 non-con scheduling.
    Was scheduling really the problem, or was is that we lost most of the good OOC games we scheduled as a conference?

  14. #164
    Administrator U-Ute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    Alright, so as we head into the final week of the season, here are the standings:

    1. Arizona (12-4) - vs. Stanford, Call Prediction (2-0 this week). #1 Seed
    2. USC (12-5) - vs. UCLA Prediction (1-0 this week). #2 Seed
    3. Stanford (10-6) - @ Arizona, ASU Prediction (0-2 this week). #5 Seed
    4. UCLA (10-7) - @ USC Prediction (0-1 this week). #6 Seed
    5. Utah (10-7) - vs. Colorado Prediction (1-0 this week). #3 Seed.
    6. Oregon (9-7) - @ Wazzu, Washington. Prediction (2-0 this week). #4 Seed
    7. Wash (9-7) - vs. OSU, Oregon Prediction (1-1 this week). #7 Seed
    8. Colorado (8-9) - @ Utah Prediction (0-1 this week). #9 Seed
    9. ASU (7-9) - vs. Cal, Stanford. Prediction (2-0 this week). #8 Seed
    10. OSU (6-10) - @ Wash, Wazzu Prediction (0-2 this week). #10 Seed
    11. Wazzu (3-13) - vs. Oregon, OSU Prediction (1-1 this week). #11 Seed
    12. Cal (2-14) - @ASU, Arizona. Prediction (0-2 this week). #12 Seed

    This assumes three teams finish at 10-8 (Stanford, UCLA, Wash) and in that Scenario, Stanford is 3-1 vs. the other two, UCLA is 2-1, and Wash is 0-3

    In summary, the DNF crystal ball says:

    1. Arizona
    2. USC
    3. Utah
    4. Oregon
    5. Stanford
    6. UCLA
    7. Wash
    8. ASU
    9. CU
    10. OSU
    11. Wazzu
    12. Cal
    I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter.

  15. #165
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    It really illustrates how messed up our selection process can be.
    ASU's non-con RPI is 2. They have wins against Xavier and Kansas. And although I'm not a big believer in MOV and how much the committee emphasizes it, ASU hasn't lost a game by more than 9 point all year long.

    There are flaws to the selection process, but ASU's situation this year doesn't underscore that point.

  16. #166
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Was scheduling really the problem, or was is that we lost most of the good OOC games we scheduled as a conference?
    The latter, plus one (explained later). Pomeroy has Utah's non-con SOS at 183. In our previous NIT years, it was 322 (last year) and 350 (Delon's first year). So we improved our scheduling. The Oregon schools have non-con SOS in the 300s, but by and large, the league scheduled well (the only other schools 200 or worse are Cal and Wazzu, neither of whom were gonna make the tournament this year). Four schools are 110th or better.

    There are some horrible losses out there. Stanford lost to EWU, Long Beach and Portland. Those three, plus a Cal loss, if reversed, would have Stanford safely in the field, and change the dynamic of the entire league.

  17. #167
    Quote Originally Posted by U-Ute View Post
    I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter.
    Thank you, I'll be here all week!
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  18. #168
    Senior Member Scorcho's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SoCalPat View Post
    The latter, plus one (explained later). Pomeroy has Utah's non-con SOS at 183. In our previous NIT years, it was 322 (last year) and 350 (Delon's first year). So we improved our scheduling. The Oregon schools have non-con SOS in the 300s, but by and large, the league scheduled well (the only other schools 200 or worse are Cal and Wazzu, neither of whom were gonna make the tournament this year). Four schools are 110th or better.

    There are some horrible losses out there. Stanford lost to EWU, Long Beach and Portland. Those three, plus a Cal loss, if reversed, would have Stanford safely in the field, and change the dynamic of the entire league.
    we're sitting at 18 wins, I think we need to get to 21 wins to have a shot at the tourney, which entails:

    - I think we'll win against Colorado on Sat, they are 1-9 on the road in conference

    - we should pick up a first round PAC-12 win

    - Ideally I'd like to stay out of USC's side of the bracket, perhaps the #4 seed in the PAC-12 with a semi-final game against AZ, a win against AZ would put us in I think

    - We need several of the teams currently on the bubble to have a miserable next couple of weeks

    Not a great shot to get in, but there is a path, If Larry can get this team to the dance, I think he's coach of the year in conference

  19. #169

  20. #170
    Quote Originally Posted by Dwight Schr-Ute View Post
    This is something that the ADs need to address with Larry Scott in the off-season...understanding of course that our coach too had to be restrained this weekend...but Hurley takes it to a new level.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  21. #171
    Bobby Hurley remains Bobby Hurley.


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  22. #172
    Quote Originally Posted by Scorcho View Post
    we're sitting at 18 wins, I think we need to get to 21 wins to have a shot at the tourney, which entails:

    - I think we'll win against Colorado on Sat, they are 1-9 on the road in conference

    - we should pick up a first round PAC-12 win

    - Ideally I'd like to stay out of USC's side of the bracket, perhaps the #4 seed in the PAC-12 with a semi-final game against AZ, a win against AZ would put us in I think

    - We need several of the teams currently on the bubble to have a miserable next couple of weeks

    Not a great shot to get in, but there is a path, If Larry can get this team to the dance, I think he's coach of the year in conference
    Piggybacking off of the work of others, it sounds like Utah winning this weekend almost guarantees a 3-seed for the Utes, while USC is virtually locked in to the 2-seed. I agree with the assessment that Utah beating Colorado and a first round win in the PAC 12 tournament over someone like UCLA/Stanford/UW would not be enough. Utah would need that third win in the semi-final to get there and that would have to come against USC or the team that just knocked off USC (and for RPI purposes Utah might need it to be USC in order to add a quality win to its resume).

    Hoping for the best but my guess is that is just a little too tall of an order for this team and we end up hosting an NIT game again.

  23. #173
    Quote Originally Posted by UBlender View Post
    Piggybacking off of the work of others, it sounds like Utah winning this weekend almost guarantees a 3-seed for the Utes, while USC is virtually locked in to the 2-seed. I agree with the assessment that Utah beating Colorado and a first round win in the PAC 12 tournament over someone like UCLA/Stanford/UW would not be enough. Utah would need that third win in the semi-final to get there and that would have to come against USC or the team that just knocked off USC (and for RPI purposes Utah might need it to be USC in order to add a quality win to its resume).

    Hoping for the best but my guess is that is just a little too tall of an order for this team and we end up hosting an NIT game again.
    The post of a long time Ute fan. For the record I agree.


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  24. #174
    Quote Originally Posted by Rocker Ute View Post
    Bobby Hurley remains Bobby Hurley.


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    Now $10,000 light.




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  25. #175
    Quote Originally Posted by Dwight Schr-Ute View Post
    Now $10,000 light.




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    Seems light to me.


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  26. #176
    With Stanford and Oregon losing last night that puts Utah in 4th. We can't finish below Oregon. If Oregon beats Washington on Saturday and ASU beats Stanford we can finish no lower than 4th if we lose. If we win we can't finish lower than 4th.
    "Be a philosopher. A man can compromise to gain a point. It has become apparent that a man can, within limits, follow his inclinations within the arms of the Church if he does so discreetly." - The Walking Drum

    "And here’s what life comes down to—not how many years you live, but how many of those years are filled with bullshit that doesn’t amount to anything to satisfy the requirements of some dickhead you’ll never get the pleasure of punching in the face." – Adam Carolla

  27. #177
    Alright, here we go...one game left and lots of scenarios in play. Let's start with what we know: Arizona, USC, Oregon St. Wash St., and Cal are all locked into their seeds. (1, 2, 10, 11, 12), and let me just say, I don't think OSU or WSU will be an easy out for anyone.

    Here are the standings as of last night's games:

    1. Arizona (13-4) - Clinched a share of the Pac 12 title and the #1 seed in the tournament. Can clinch it outright with a win on Saturday over Cal.
    2. USC (12-5) - Can clinch a share of the Pac 12 title with a W and an Arizona loss. Otherwise, they are locked in as the #2 seed in Vegas.
    3. Washington (10-7) - Does not own any tiebreakers over any of the other 10-7 teams. Will need to win and have 2 of the 3 other teams at 10-7 lose to clinch a top four seed. If they win and the other three teams lose, they would be the #3 seed in Vegas.
    4. UCLA (10-7) - Owns a tiebreaker over Wash, but split with Utah and Stanford during the season. Needs a win to stay in the discussion for a top four seed and the NCAA tournament. They do hold a win over Arizona, so if they got into a 1-1 tiebreaker scenario with Stanford or Utah, they would move ahead of them.
    5. Utah (10-7) - Clinches a top four seed with a win. Owns a tiebreaker over Stanford and Washington, split with UCLA. Most of the scenarios work out in the Utes favor here.
    6. Stanford (10-7) - Holds the head to head tiebreaker over Washington, but not Utah, and split with UCLA during the regular season. They would need a win and a loss by Utah to ensure a top 4 seed, I believe.
    7. Oregon (9-8) - If Oregon beats Washington on Saturday, they would vault ahead of them by virtue of a season sweep over the Huskies. They would lose head to head tiebreakers vs. Utah and Stanford, and I think would lose to UCLA by virtue of UCLA's win over USC earlier in the season. If Oregon loses, they are essentially locked into the 7 seed because they would own tiebreakers over ASU and CU, in the event that either won.
    8. ASU (8-9) - ASU and Colorado are essentially locked into the 8/9 game, we just don't know who goes where. If they win on Saturday and the Buffs lose, they are the 8. If the reverse is true, the Buffs are the 8. If they both end with the same record, Colorado would win that tiebreaker due to their win over Arizona, I believe.
    9. Colorado (8-9) - See above
    10. Oregon St. (6-11) - Plays WSU in a completely meaningless game.
    11. Wazzu (3-14) - Plays OSU in a completely meaningless game.
    12. Cal (2-15) - Poor Cal.

    Here's the schedule:

    Stanford @ ASU 12:30 MT - Pac 12 Networks
    Oregon @ Washington 2:30 MT - Pac 12 Networks
    Cal @ Arizona 4:30 MT - Pac 12 Networks
    OSU @ WSU 4:30 MT - Pac 12 Networks
    Colorado @ Utah 5:00 MT - Pac 12 Mountain
    UCLA @ USC 8:30 MT - ESPN

    So, we should have a pretty good idea of where we stand by the time our game tips off.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  28. #178
    Quote Originally Posted by Mormon Red Death View Post
    With Stanford and Oregon losing last night that puts Utah in 4th. We can't finish below Oregon. If Oregon beats Washington on Saturday and ASU beats Stanford we can finish no lower than 4th if we lose. If we win we can't finish lower than 4th.
    I assume you're talking about seeding, right? Because we're currently tied for third, we're not in 4th.

  29. #179
    Quote Originally Posted by Scratch View Post
    I assume you're talking about seeding, right? Because we're currently tied for third, we're not in 4th.
    correct
    "Be a philosopher. A man can compromise to gain a point. It has become apparent that a man can, within limits, follow his inclinations within the arms of the Church if he does so discreetly." - The Walking Drum

    "And here’s what life comes down to—not how many years you live, but how many of those years are filled with bullshit that doesn’t amount to anything to satisfy the requirements of some dickhead you’ll never get the pleasure of punching in the face." – Adam Carolla

  30. #180
    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    5. Utah (10-7) - Clinches a top four seed with a win. Owns a tiebreaker over Stanford and Washington, split with UCLA. Most of the scenarios work out in the Utes favor here.
    With a win, we finish 3rd or 4th. What about a loss? I think the 6 seed is our worst case scenario. Is that right?

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