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Thread: The Basketball Scheduling Thread

  1. #1

    The Basketball Scheduling Thread

    Since we have a thread on football scheduling, why not have one on basketball scheduling?

    First, let's understand what the Quadrants are and what a win means:

    Quadrant 1: Home games vs. RPI teams ranked in the top 30; neutral games vs. 1-50; away games vs. 1-75.
    Quadrant 2: Home vs. 31-75 teams; neutral vs. 51-100; away vs. 76-135
    Quadrant 3: Home vs. 76-160 teams; neutral vs. 101-200; away vs. 136-240.
    Quadrant 4: Home vs. 161-plus teams; neutral vs. 201-plus; away vs. 241-plus.

    I'm currently working on a look at how each team in the Pac 12 handled their scheduling in 2017-18, and how they fared vs. each Quadrant. Stay tuned, that's called a teaser.

    Here are some things we know about next year's schedule:

    Kentucky - Date (TBD) - A road game at Rupp Arena almost certainly gives us a Q1 game, no matter the result.

    Tulsa - Home game on December 1. They finished with an RPI of 86 last year, so if that holds next season, you're looking at a Q3 game at home.

    BYU - We will play BYU on December 8 in Vivint Arena. If BYU has a year similar to this one, that game will likely be a Q2 or Q3 game.

    Missouri - We play Missouri on the road next year. This season, a road game at Missouri would be a Q1 game. Can they reach a top 75 RPI without Michael Porter Jr.? They did this year.

    Wooden Classic - (Nov 22, 23, and 25) Here is the current field for the Wooden classic next year, with RPIs in parenthesis: Fresno St (100), Hawaii (206), LaSalle (200), Miami (25), Northwestern (167), Seton Hall (26), and one more team TBA. As of right now you've got three mid majors and four majors/p5, so the chances that it would be another mid major seem pretty high. I know there are sites out there that talk about what tournaments teams are in, and which teams still need tournaments, but I don't know where that is. It seems to me though if you can win your first round game, then you are going to get a shot at at least one of the other P5 teams, if not two (if you can get to the finals).

    FWIW - Washington St. won this tournament in 2017, and started out with St. Joe's (151), then played St. Mary's (47), and then SDSU (91) in the finals. So, kind of a mixed bag there, but again, if you can win your first game, you might be able to walk out of there with at least one Q1 or Q2 win.

    One more note - the brackets for this tournament were announced on August 1 of last year, so set your calendars.

    So that is 7 of our 12 (if we use the full allotment - thanks Andy) non-conference games next year.

    One more possibility is Xavier completing its part of the home and home. I don't recall if that game was bought out or not.

    Assuming it is not, that will leave us with 7 more games to schedule in the non-conference for 2018-19. It is hard to imagine that we will take another road game, but I would think that you could pretty easily get a Q2 road game that you have a decent shot at winning.

    More to come on all of this.
    Last edited by DrumNFeather; 05-15-2018 at 10:33 AM.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  2. #2
    do we know if the Pac 12 is playing a 20 game schedule next year? Has that been decided?

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by concerned View Post
    do we know if the Pac 12 is playing a 20 game schedule next year? Has that been decided?
    "Under consideration."
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  4. #4
    With so many new faces, I think we need to make this schedule as light and easy as possible.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by UtahsMrSports View Post
    With so many new faces, I think we need to make this schedule as light and easy as possible.
    You're kidding, right?

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    You're kidding, right?
    More like trolling, but yes.

  7. #7
    Larry was on with Bill today and sounded pretty frustrated about the perception of the Pac 12 as a down league, citing the league's 7-2 record against the SEC as one of the indicators that it wasn't so bad. When asked if the Utes would beef up their non-conference schedule in reaction to the committee he said "Oh hell yeah, I've already talked to Andy about it."

    I'm still crunching some numbers here, but Utah had 9 Q1 opportunities this year and went 3-6, but only two of those opportunities were non-conference games. They had 6 Q2 opportunities this year and went 3-3 (3-4 if you count the loss to Oregon in the Pac12 tournament).

    He also noted in the interview, as I did above, that you can't project results of teams like Ole Miss (and I would add UNLV, USU, BYU). Our neutral site games gave us nothing this year.

    I don't think you have to tweak your scheduling model too much to come up with a competitive schedule that helps you get in the Dance, you just have to narrow the gap on what ultimately ends up being a Q1, Q2, Q3 game. Some of those margins are very narrow (Montana, for example is 1 RPI point from being a Q2 win for a few teams in our league).

    With 4 neutral games and 1 true road game already on the docket for next year, it will be interesting to see how many other road games we attempt to play.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    Larry was on with Bill today and sounded pretty frustrated about the perception of the Pac 12 as a down league, citing the league's 7-2 record against the SEC as one of the indicators that it wasn't so bad. When asked if the Utes would beef up their non-conference schedule in reaction to the committee he said "Oh hell yeah, I've already talked to Andy about it."......
    Honestly, I'm on the verge of canceling our tickets. Take this year for example. There was only one non-conference game of any interest, plus two Sunday games (I get it....a personal choice) that would go unused by us. So basically, I'm missing as many games as I'm attending. Not sure that makes much sense. They beef up the non-con schedule to something respectable and I'm in. Probably hold on one more year to see where it goes.
    “Children and dogs are as necessary to the welfare of the country as Wall Street and the railroads.” -- Harry S. Truman

    "You never soar so high as when you stoop down to help a child or an animal." -- Jewish Proverb

    "Three-time Pro Bowler Eric Weddle the most versatile, and maybe most intelligent, safety in the game." -- SI, 9/7/15, p. 107.

  9. #9
    They had Xavier on the schedule. Throw in the Porter Jr. injury situation and so what looked like a couple of marquee games turned out very different then expected. Can't fault the Utes for those things. Personally I would like to see the conference organize something like the Big10 ACC challenge.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by snafu View Post
    something like the Big10 ACC challenge.
    I used to push for a Pac-12 Big12 challenge, but the Big-12 partnered up with the SEC. Now, I've been pushing the Pac-12/BigEast challenge. Right coast, left coast. East v West. It's a lot of travel though. Maybe the Pac12/BigEast challenge could involve two game road trips.

    Combine that with a preseason tournament and an expanded conference schedule, and all our high end scheduling needs would be taken care of. Just need to drop the low low end to be done.

  11. #11
    Alright, here is how the league fared in its Q1-Q4 games:

    Sum Arizona Arizona St. CAL Colorado Oregon OSU Stanford UCLA USC Utah Wash WSU
    Q1 3-3 3-4 1-8 2-7 3-4 0-7 2-9 3-6 4-5 3-6 3-5 1-6
    Q2 8-3 5-4 1-7 4-2 4-3 4-4 6-1 5-2 4-4 3-3 2-4 2-7
    Q3 7-1 7-2 4-3 5-5 5-3 4-4 5-3 7-2 7-0 7-1 8-2 3-4
    Q4 5-0 5-0 2-5 5-0 8-0 6-0 4-1 6-0 7-0 6-0 7-0 6-1
    Post-Conf Tourney
    Q1 5-3 3-4 1-8 2-8 3-5 0-8 2-10 3-7 4-6 3-6 3-5 1-6
    Q2 9-3 5-5 1-8 5-2 5-3 5-4 6-1 6-2 5-4 3-4 2-4 2-8
    Q3 7-1 7-2 4-3 5-5 6-3 4-4 5-3 7-2 8-0 7-1 8-3 3-4
    Q4 5-0 5-0 2-5 5-0 8-0 6-0 5-1 6-0 7-0 6-0 7-0 6-1
    Final Record 27-7 20-11 8-23 18-14 21-12 16-15 18-14 20-11 23-11 19-11 20-12 12-19
    Final RPI 13 66 216 82 72 137 86 36 34 59 71 179

    As a league, we went just 9-16 in Q1 OOC opportunities, and two of those were wins by Cal and Wazzu, who end up being Q4 home wins for everyone in the league.

    Seems to me that the number you really have to catch up on is those Q2 games, and you could play a team that ends up having an RPI in the low 130s and have that qualify as a Q2 win.

    Stanford is a total mystery. 11 Q1 opportunities, 6-1 in Q2 opportunities, and then 3 Q3 losses and 1 Q4 losses. Take those away and the Cardinal are easily a tournament team.

    I'm interested to see what Larry & Co. come up with for the remaining 7 non-conf. games. I'd love to see another true road game mixed in there with some good or decent home games. Nothing is a guarantee obviously, but there is room for a competitive schedule that doesn't kill your shot at the dance as long as you don't pull a Stanford and have inexplicable losses.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  12. #12
    The Wooden Legacy sent a tweet to the Utes to wish them well in their game tonight, and wouldn't you know, they have a graphic of their tournament field for next year with the final team added. Grand Canyon - RPI #162.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    I used to push for a Pac-12 Big12 challenge, but the Big-12 partnered up with the SEC. Now, I've been pushing the Pac-12/BigEast challenge. Right coast, left coast. East v West. It's a lot of travel though. Maybe the Pac12/BigEast challenge could involve two game road trips.

    Combine that with a preseason tournament and an expanded conference schedule, and all our high end scheduling needs would be taken care of. Just need to drop the low low end to be done.
    Not only a lot of travel, but no real good way to make this work for TV and fans. If you're Providence, do you want to go to the West Coast for a game that tips off at 10 p.m. for your home fans? If you're Oregon and hosting Providence, are you willing to have a 5 p.m. start? College basketball is a TV sport, and very little about a coastal series makes sense for mid-week TV.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    The Wooden Legacy sent a tweet to the Utes to wish them well in their game tonight, and wouldn't you know, they have a graphic of their tournament field for next year with the final team added. Grand Canyon - RPI #162.
    Ugh. Provided Xavier isn't on the docket this year, Larry needs at least three top 100 teams in the non-con that aren't on the schedule, one of them being a top 50 lock.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by SoCalPat View Post
    Ugh. Provided Xavier isn't on the docket this year, Larry needs at least three top 100 teams in the non-con that aren't on the schedule, one of them being a top 50 lock.
    I would imagine that the Missouri game ends up being top 100 easily...and that's a road game. I think we need to find another top 100 winnable road game (Montana would be a great example this year) and then get a good home game as well. I know we had discussions with Wisconsin a year or two ago. I would think that most teams will be open to it next year with what the committee did this year.

    Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by SoCalPat View Post
    Not only a lot of travel, but no real good way to make this work for TV and fans. If you're Providence, do you want to go to the West Coast for a game that tips off at 10 p.m. for your home fans? If you're Oregon and hosting Providence, are you willing to have a 5 p.m. start? College basketball is a TV sport, and very little about a coastal series makes sense for mid-week TV.
    These sound like obstacles that can be overcome.

    It will probably not ever make TV revenue like the ACC/BigTen Challenge, but it will certainly make more than Utah/High Point. These games replace garbage. Fans would certainly prefer an odd hour vs a good team over a normal hour vs a filler. Fox and ESPN are desperate for decent college basketball content in early December.

    Besides, revenue in this case is a bonus. You do this primarily for scheduling competitiveness - for the committee. They say scheduling is hard. This gives a handful good games automatically. It takes the challenge away from the ADs/coaches (and it takes the decisions out of their hands, too).

    The marquee game each year could be played in MSG. Players seem to get a kick out of that, so it would add another small recruiting chip for the best Pac-12 teams.

    This should have happened years ago. If it had, the Pac-12 would have had extra games this season against Villanova, Seton Hall, Xavier, Providence, Creighton, and Butler - all tournament teams.

  17. #17
    Some interesting scheduling news starting to trickle out in college hoops - none of it Utah related, yet. St. Marys and Creighton I believe have agreed to a neutral site game. Butler and Florida are playing a home and home, and I think Oklahoma just agreed to a H/H with somebody...might have been Creighton as well. UNC has started doing 2 for 1s with in state schools and will travel to Wofford this next year, and UNC Wilmington (I think) the following season.

    Which makes me wonder...how many of the in-state schools would be down with a 2 for 1 with Utah. I would imagine Southern Utah would do it in a heartbeat, and Weber possibly would too. Even UVU might do that just to get the home game. Now, as I've stated before, I think Larry should be taking his team on the road in the OOC more anyway, but these 2 for 1s might be a great way to start doing that. Likewise, outside of the beehive classic, I wonder if a team would be more likely to come to SLC if they played in Vivint instead of in the JMHC.
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

  18. #18
    A part of me thinks the in state schools would do a 2 for 1. Weber, UVU, Utah State would all be fun.

    But it a part of me thinks that the other schools are still hurt over Utah moving onwards and upwards and wouldn’t agree to a 2 for 1. Also, if you are doing 2 for 1’s with all the other in state schools, then BYU really has no argument to playing them 2 for 1. It’s just standard policy. Plus, it’s not like they are a good program anyways.

    Now it would be a good time to play USU and just crush them.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    Some interesting scheduling news starting to trickle out in college hoops - none of it Utah related, yet. St. Marys and Creighton I believe have agreed to a neutral site game. Butler and Florida are playing a home and home, and I think Oklahoma just agreed to a H/H with somebody...might have been Creighton as well. UNC has started doing 2 for 1s with in state schools and will travel to Wofford this next year, and UNC Wilmington (I think) the following season.

    Which makes me wonder...how many of the in-state schools would be down with a 2 for 1 with Utah. I would imagine Southern Utah would do it in a heartbeat, and Weber possibly would too. Even UVU might do that just to get the home game. Now, as I've stated before, I think Larry should be taking his team on the road in the OOC more anyway, but these 2 for 1s might be a great way to start doing that. Likewise, outside of the beehive classic, I wonder if a team would be more likely to come to SLC if they played in Vivint instead of in the JMHC.
    We should never want to go to Cedar City when we've got Ogden nearby. SUU is the one school I would never want to see us work out a series that has us going down there. All the others are definitely in play -- even UVU. But Utah State will never agree to it, and Weber is iffy.

  20. #20
    Senior Member Scorcho's Avatar
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    in related news Wilner graded the Pac-12 schools OOC football schedule over the next 5 years.

    Utah graded out a 'D'

  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Scorcho View Post
    in related news Wilner graded the Pac-12 schools OOC football schedule over the next 5 years.

    Utah graded out a 'D'
    He's right. It's not a good schedule. You can still argue that it's a good strategy, though. We've had that debate.

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    He's right. It's not a good schedule. You can still argue that it's a good strategy, though. We've had that debate.
    I agree its a good strategy for football. The PAC-12 is difficult enough with 9 conference games that the OOC schedule is essentially irrelevant. Typically, that's true of OOC scheduling for PAC-12 basketball. The conference schedule should prove difficult enough that Utah shouldn't need to over-schedule. With 2 more basketball conference games added next year, I wonder what the impact will be?

  23. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Scorcho View Post
    I agree its a good strategy for football. The PAC-12 is difficult enough with 9 conference games that the OOC schedule is essentially irrelevant.
    The situation that would leave us wringing our hands is if we have a great season and get left out of the playoff in favor of teams that played tougher OOC schedules. It's a fairly unlikely scenario, but it could happen. Of course, we could also miss out due to an OOC loss to a tough team. It works both ways.

    The likelier situation for us is that by finishing 3-0 OOC, we are more likely to be bowl eligible, and we are more likely to snag one of the better Pac-12 affiliated bowls.

    On the other hand, what fan wouldn't like to see more good games on the schedule?

  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Scorcho View Post
    in related news Wilner graded the Pac-12 schools OOC football schedule over the next 5 years.

    Utah graded out a 'D'
    He is right. The real head scratcher for me is Northern Illinois. I understand that they have had good teams in the past and that they could have a good team again this year, but it isn't in a recruiting area for us or in an area of heavy alumni base.

  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by UTEopia View Post
    He is right. The real head scratcher for me is Northern Illinois. I understand that they have had good teams in the past and that they could have a good team again this year, but it isn't in a recruiting area for us or in an area of heavy alumni base.
    True. The worst teams to schedule are cream-puff reputations that are legitimately good (No. Illinois, App. State, etc). If you are going to schedule crap, it better really stink.

    That being said, I think I'll make the trip to DeKalb!

  26. #26
    20 game league schedule to be discussed at the Pac 12 meetings in Phoenix. Earliest we'd see it is 19-20: https://frshoopz.com/cbb/rothstein-p...ence-schedule/
    “It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.”

    Well, because he thought it was good sport. Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    20 game league schedule to be discussed at the Pac 12 meetings in Phoenix. Earliest we'd see it is 19-20: https://frshoopz.com/cbb/rothstein-p...ence-schedule/
    Someone has to explain to me why this is a good idea.

  28. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by SoCalPat View Post
    Someone has to explain to me why this is a good idea.
    Me too. I don't see any real difference between 18 and 20.

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by SoCalPat View Post
    Someone has to explain to me why this is a good idea.
    better games, better competition and against schools I have a vested interest in. I like it, I wish it was a full round robin go to 22.

  30. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Scorcho View Post
    better games, better competition and against schools I have a vested interest in. I like it, I wish it was a full round robin go to 22.

    Me too.

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