Brexit

[LA Ute]

I didn’t find a thread on this, so here’s one now.

I don’t have strong feelings about Brexit, but this quote from Walter Russell Mead caught my attention:

Many Brexit opponents, both in the U.K. and on the Continent, hope that the chaos of a “no deal” Brexit will bring about a second British referendum. Next time, they hope, a chastened British public will vote to remain. But repeating the referendum until the people vote the “right” way is more likely to fan the flames of populist anti-Brussels sentiment around the EU than to quell them.

The U.S. has so far not been involved in the discussions between the U.K. and its EU partners. This is not because it has no interest in the matter. From America’s standpoint, a no-deal Brexit that weakens Britain and poisons EU-U.K. relations would be a disaster. It would undermine the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and one of America’s most important and valued allies. And if a radicalized Labour Party takes power in the wake of a Brexit calamity, the survival of the trans-Atlantic alliance could be at risk. The U.K. itself could come apart. It is crucial from the U.S. perspective that any divorce settlement maintain Western and allied cohesion in a dangerous world.

Some Europeans may view Brexit mainly as a matter of economics, but it is also inescapably a major security concern for the West. The relationship between post-Brexit Britain and the rest of the West cannot be evaluated simply as an internal matter for the EU. Britain may be leaving the EU, but it is not leaving the American-led Western alliance. The implications of a nasty and brutal Brexit for the Atlantic community are too consequential for Washington to ignore.

[Ma'ake]

I thought Brexit was a dumb idea economically, but the sociological issues driving nationalism are highly troubling, far too many people are angry about their place in life.

I figured the UK would find out the hard way that it was a dumb choice, but the intra-party wars inside the Conservative Party are paving the way for a very hard landing, with even (now) "Sir" John Major condemning the backfighting and undermining of Theresa May.

It doesn't seem to matter that all kinds of companies are warning that a "no deal" Brexit would be extremely disruptive - the conservatives are too busy fighting each other to make any progress on an exit agreement.

[LA Ute]

I thought Brexit was a dumb idea economically, but the sociological issues driving nationalism are highly troubling, far too many people are angry about their place in life.

I figured the UK would find out the hard way that it was a dumb choice, but the intra-party wars inside the Conservative Party are paving the way for a very hard landing, with even (now) "Sir" John Major condemning the backfighting and undermining of Theresa May.

It doesn't seem to matter that all kinds of companies are warning that a "no deal" Brexit would be extremely disruptive - the conservatives are too busy fighting each other to make any progress on an exit agreement.

I think that when we analyze electoral surprises like this, and like the Trump victory, in simple terms of base human stupidity and backwardness, we miss a lot.

[Ma'ake]

I think that when we analyze electoral surprises like this, and like the Trump victory, in simple terms of base human stupidity and backwardness, we miss a lot.

Good point, and I agree. At a macro economic level, the point can be made things like Brexit and tariffs are bad economic moves.

But there is tremendous tension *within* nations, within economies & societies as those who are disenfranchised lash out, feeling left behind, feeling like their heritage is being lost in a tsunami of immigration and a globalized economy.

Before the Brexit vote many C-class officers went out to plead the "Stay" case to UK voters. One video I watched showed an executive making the case that leaving the EU would inevitably damage the UK's GDP. The few times he reiterated this point a gentleman stood up and said "that's YOUR GDP, you keep talking about YOUR GDP!", ie, "what has this GDP thing done for ME? I'm not seeing these fat-cat raises you suits are!"

Right now this primal need to seek equality and justice is mostly being manifested as nationalism. There's no reason to think if inequalities keep growing and we go into a recession - which will inevitably occur - that we couldn't see a rise of serious anti-capitalism unrest.

I met a new researcher who is a wisened old soul from Sweden. Seeing my lastname, the question came up, I've never been there, but we talked about their recent vote where the Swedish Democrats, an ethnic nationalist party, increased their vote from 13% to 18%. Most Swedes are pretty concerned about this rise and the call for Sweden to start deporting immigrants, etc.

(Which I have to say makes Utah's embrace of immigrants all the more impressive.)

[LA Ute]

Good point, and I agree. At a macro economic level, the point can be made things like Brexit and tariffs are bad economic moves.

But there is tremendous tension *within* nations, within economies & societies as those who are disenfranchised lash out, feeling left behind, feeling like their heritage is being lost in a tsunami of immigration and a globalized economy.

Before the Brexit vote many C-class officers went out to plead the "Stay" case to UK voters. One video I watched showed an executive making the case that leaving the EU would inevitably damage the UK's GDP. The few times he reiterated this point a gentleman stood up and said "that's YOUR GDP, you keep talking about YOUR GDP!", ie, "what has this GDP thing done for ME? I'm not seeing these fat-cat raises you suits are!"

Right now this primal need to seek equality and justice is mostly being manifested as nationalism. There's no reason to think if inequalities keep growing and we go into a recession - which will inevitably occur - that we couldn't see a rise of serious anti-capitalism unrest.

I met a new researcher who is a wisened old soul from Sweden. Seeing my lastname, the question came up, I've never been there, but we talked about their recent vote where the Swedish Democrats, an ethnic nationalist party, increased their vote from 13% to 18%. Most Swedes are pretty concerned about this rise and the call for Sweden to start deporting immigrants, etc.

(Which I have to say makes Utah's embrace of immigrants all the more impressive.)

I’m considered a squish on immigration by other conservatives. I’m against Trump’s wall and I’m for a path to citizenship (or at least permanent residency) for the illegals already here in the USA. What I see happening is anxiety over one question: Where is the tipping point at which unrestrained immigration starts to damage a country’s culture? There needs to be a discussion about that issue, rather than simply telling people who worry about it to shut up because they’re xenophobes.

When we were in the UK last summer I talked to a lot of locals on both sides of Brexit. Those on the Stay side seemed worried about the change’s impact on the country’s economy. They also seemed to think that those on the Leave side were being deceived.

The pro-Leave set seemed worried about Britain losing its culture to immigrants who “don’t want to become British,” and about people in Brussels making decisions for them. The two world wars in the last 100 years seems to have left the Brits distrustful of the rest of Europe. That came up a lot in conversations with cab drivers. The Leave set also seemed irritated that no one was listening to them, or so they felt.

That’s my anecdotal analysis.

[Irving Washington]

I’m considered a squish on immigration by other conservatives. I’m against Trump’s wall and I’m for a path to citizenship (or at least permanent residency) for the illegals already here in the USA. What I see happening is anxiety over one question: Where is the tipping point at which unrestrained immigration starts to damage a country’s culture? There needs to be a discussion about that issue, rather than simply telling people who worry about it to shut up because they’re xenophobes.

When we were in the UK last summer I talked to a lot of locals on both sides of Brexit. Those on the Stay side seemed worried about the change’s impact on the country’s economy. They also seemed to think that those on the Leave side were being deceived.

The pro-Leave set seemed worried about Britain losing its culture to immigrants who “don’t want to become British,” and about people in Brussels making decisions for them. The two world wars in the last 100 years seems to have left the Brits distrustful of the rest of Europe. That came up a lot in conversations with cab drivers. The Leave set also seemed irritated that no one was listening to them, or so they felt.

That’s my anecdotal analysis.

The other discussion will be whether the concern is about culture or power/privilege.
The pro-Leave people - did they identify any particular group that doesn't want to assimilate? My guess would be Muslims, rather than those from other European nations. Is this a matter of culture or religion, or both.
In the U.S. the concern is more about ethnicity, rather than religion. The group that is the target of concern also happens to be a part of the largest ethnic minority in the country. While the pro-Life people may bee concerned about culture, I think we're concerned more about power/privilege. It's particularly telling when statistics come out that whites will be the minority in this country in the not too distant future.
In all of the concern about Latino immigration, I hear little about culture issues, other than those typical to poverty.

[LA Ute]

The other discussion will be whether the concern is about culture or power/privilege.
The pro-Leave people - did they identify any particular group that doesn't want to assimilate? My guess would be Muslims, rather than those from other European nations. Is this a matter of culture or religion, or both.
In the U.S. the concern is more about ethnicity, rather than religion. The group that is the target of concern also happens to be a part of the largest ethnic minority in the country. While the pro-Life people may bee concerned about culture, I think we're concerned more about power/privilege. It's particularly telling when statistics come out that whites will be the minority in this country in the not too distant future.
In all of the concern about Latino immigration, I hear little about culture issues, other than those typical to poverty.

I don’t know where the tipping point is but I believe there is one. The folks who I think are dead wrong are the ones who don’t even admit that there is such a point. Here in CA I worry about language. I’m pretty fluent in Spanish so I don’t personally mind hearing it all the time, but I worry about kids who grow up not really able to speak basic English. (We have enough trouble with that with kids raised by multigenerational American parents!).

[Irving Washington]

I don’t know where the tipping point is but I believe there is one. The folks who I think are dead wrong are the ones who don’t even admit that there is such a point. Here in CA I worry about language. I’m pretty fluent in Spanish so I don’t personally mind hearing it all the time, but I worry about kids who grow up not really able to speak basic English. (We have enough trouble with that with kids raised by multigenerational American parents!).

Why can't the English teach their children how to speak?

[Ma'ake]

Related to immigration and trying to conquer entrenched poverty: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/01/u...d-poverty.html

It includes a map of how economically successful people are who grew up in any given neighborhood in the US.

Seattle is going to implement a housing voucher program, similar to what Canada has done, to try and give better futures to kids whose neighborhoods of upbringing put them at a disadvantage. (Canada, interestingly, has as much legal immigration as the US, despite being 1/10th the population.)

I can see LA's point about the risk of losing culture... but my question is exactly what *is* the common American culture? We've always been a melting pot, with earlier generations' intermixing being now passe, such as my co-worker from New Jersey who is Irish-Italian, two previous immigrant waves pitted against each other.

I think the bigger threat is the different nations within the US - going back to the map of the distinct regional cultures - overcoming the national cohesion that keeps the country together. Tribalism - political, ethnic, economic, religious - is a much bigger threat, IMO.

[LA Ute]

Related to immigration and trying to conquer entrenched poverty: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/01/u...d-poverty.html

It includes a map of how economically successful people are who grew up in any given neighborhood in the US.

Seattle is going to implement a housing voucher program, similar to what Canada has done, to try and give better futures to kids whose neighborhoods of upbringing put them at a disadvantage. (Canada, interestingly, has as much legal immigration as the US, despite being 1/10th the population.)

I can see LA's point about the risk of losing culture... but my question is exactly what *is* the common American culture? We've always been a melting pot, with earlier generations' intermixing being now passe, such as my co-worker from New Jersey who is Irish-Italian, two previous immigrant waves pitted against each other.

I think the bigger threat is the different nations within the US - going back to the map of the distinct regional cultures - overcoming the national cohesion that keeps the country together. Tribalism - political, ethnic, economic, religious - is a much bigger threat, IMO.

I am thinking about such features of American culture as respect for the rule of law, appreciation for democracy/republicanism, free elections, tolerance of opposing viewpoints, separation of church and state, most of what is in the Bill of Rights, and the general values that we have adopted as a free society. Life in a liberal democracy, in other words.

[Ma'ake]

I am thinking about such features of American culture as respect for the rule of law, appreciation for democracy/republicanism, free elections, tolerance of opposing viewpoints, separation of church and state, most of what is in the Bill of Rights, and the general values that we have adopted as a free society. Life in a liberal democracy, in other words.

OK, thanks for narrowing the prism - these are all very, very important cultural values.

The items you listed are under pressure, getting buffeted.

Bill of Rights is a mixed bag.

- Freedom of speech is so far pretty solid, even if the President decries Twitter & Facebook rooting out Russian troll bots as "millions are losing their freedom of speech". Freedom of the press is unquestionably under pressure, as stones are unturned threatening POTUS, or bias is seen as an existential threat to Americanism (both ways).

- Freedom to own & operate guns is more robust than the Founders could have imagined. A year after Las Vegas, bump stocks are still widely available, with zero prospects of reigning them in. (Are background checks even a topic anymore? Or just suffering from a lack of oxygen due to other issues?)

- Freedom of religion is either under severe assault - if you're a religionist who seeks maximum freedom and are concerned about the rise of the "Nones", and seek to roll back gay rights or be able to discriminate based on religious views. But there's no movement to shutter religion, most non-religionists strongly support the freedom of religion, just don't want religion enshrined in the public square, in government policy, etc.

- Rule of law is definitely under pressure, as widening economic inequalities nudge more to see the cynical version of the "golden rule" as predominant. The sobering (cough) Kavanaugh process has the potential to do serious damage to respect for the SCOTUS and the Senate, the result of what appears to be a crooked process underway. (Hope I'm wrong.)

But instead of immigration threatening our culture & values, most of the stress on the values & institutions you've listed seems to be originating from within, from intra-USA tribalism bursting at the seams. The immigrants I know are either visitors, if they're lower end labor (from southern parts of our hemisphere) have joined the many Americans who are ignorant / don't care. Well educated immigrants I work with are hesitant to join the conversation with their own take on things, seeing the ongoing fighting as making their status as immigrants tenuous.

I'm not ignoring the cultural problems immigrants bring - machismo, a "win at all costs" mentality from some in the East, pretty harsh views of women from some nations, religions that view ranching and steak houses as morally wrong, etc.

I'm just saying the main threat is from within... in many respects catalyzed by the mere presence of immigrants.

[LA Ute]

OK, thanks for narrowing the prism - these are all very, very important cultural values.

The items you listed are under pressure, getting buffeted.

Bill of Rights is a mixed bag.

- Freedom of speech is so far pretty solid, even if the President decries Twitter & Facebook rooting out Russian troll bots as "millions are losing their freedom of speech". Freedom of the press is unquestionably under pressure, as stones are unturned threatening POTUS, or bias is seen as an existential threat to Americanism (both ways).

- Freedom to own & operate guns is more robust than the Founders could have imagined. A year after Las Vegas, bump stocks are still widely available, with zero prospects of reigning them in. (Are background checks even a topic anymore? Or just suffering from a lack of oxygen due to other issues?)

- Freedom of religion is either under severe assault - if you're a religionist who seeks maximum freedom and are concerned about the rise of the "Nones", and seek to roll back gay rights or be able to discriminate based on religious views. But there's no movement to shutter religion, most non-religionists strongly support the freedom of religion, just don't want religion enshrined in the public square, in government policy, etc.

- Rule of law is definitely under pressure, as widening economic inequalities nudge more to see the cynical version of the "golden rule" as predominant. The sobering (cough) Kavanaugh process has the potential to do serious damage to respect for the SCOTUS and the Senate, the result of what appears to be a crooked process underway. (Hope I'm wrong.)

But instead of immigration threatening our culture & values, most of the stress on the values & institutions you've listed seems to be originating from within, from intra-USA tribalism bursting at the seams. The immigrants I know are either visitors, if they're lower end labor (from southern parts of our hemisphere) have joined the many Americans who are ignorant / don't care. Well educated immigrants I work with are hesitant to join the conversation with their own take on things, seeing the ongoing fighting as making their status as immigrants tenuous.

I'm not ignoring the cultural problems immigrants bring - machismo, a "win at all costs" mentality from some in the East, pretty harsh views of women from some nations, religions that view ranching and steak houses as morally wrong, etc.

I'm just saying the main threat is from within... in many respects catalyzed by the mere presence of immigrants.

I agree that our biggest problems are from within. I’m just saying that long-term, unrestrained immigration could undermine the culture here. Generally, I think immigrants should buy in to the American way of life. Exactly what that way of life is, of course, is always evolving as you know it.

[U-Ute]

I am thinking about such features of American culture as respect for the rule of law, appreciation for democracy/republicanism, free elections, tolerance of opposing viewpoints, separation of church and state, most of what is in the Bill of Rights, and the general values that we have adopted as a free society. Life in a liberal democracy, in other words.

Depends on who you ask. It seems like people who are the most concerned about "American culture" use it as a euphemism for "white Anglo-Saxon Christian".

[U-Ute]

I agree that our biggest problems are from within. I’m just saying that long-term, unrestrained immigration could undermine the culture here. Generally, I think immigrants should buy in to the American way of life. Exactly what that way of life is, of course, is always evolving as you know it.

Based on my admittedly limited experience, that's what they are doing. If, however, my experience with my father is any indicator it seems to me that a lot of our "internal problems" are due to imagined or perceived threats fanned by the wind of tribalism.

For example, my dad firmly believes, and he gets these ideas from Fox News so I'm sure he's not the only one who buys into them, that an open border is a plot by the Democratic party to flood elections with illegal voters who can vote themselves benefits at the expense of white rich guys.

When I try to explain that there have been little to no cases of voter fraud identity, he simply brushes that off as the "liberal media" covering it up.

I don't know how you can even start a conversation about immigration reform with people who have that as their mindset.

[Ma'ake]

Just today talked with another Indian colleague who is bailing out, going back home in a couple of weeks, booked the one-way flight. Despite being a PhD with a long track record of respected publications, she described getting a lot of run around from the State Department that hasn't existed before with previous visa renewals, before eventually deciding the experience was "systematically deliberate".

She says the chatter in the Indian researcher community is it's an increasingly common experience. Family pressure to get out of the US helped the decision, though one of the reasons she wanted to stay in the US is parental pressure to enter an arrange marriage. (You could say she was trying to live American values.)

"This isn't cattle cars in Germany, and maybe things will change with a future administration, but it's very clear we're increasingly unwelcome".

Others have gone to Australia, where things are apparently friendlier.

Utah's loss, Bangalore's gain.

[Irving Washington]

I agree that our biggest problems are from within. I’m just saying that long-term, unrestrained immigration could undermine the culture here. Generally, I think immigrants should buy in to the American way of life. Exactly what that way of life is, of course, is always evolving as you know it.

Unfortunately, we're not going to get immigrants to embrace our culture when we're trying to restrict their entry and saying most come from shot holes, generally trying to restrict the vote and each party vilifying the other.

[LA Ute]

Just today talked with another Indian colleague who is bailing out, going back home in a couple of weeks, booked the one-way flight. Despite being a PhD with a long track record of respected publications, she described getting a lot of run around from the State Department that hasn't existed before with previous visa renewals, before eventually deciding the experience was "systematically deliberate".

She says the chatter in the Indian researcher community is it's an increasingly common experience. Family pressure to get out of the US helped the decision, though one of the reasons she wanted to stay in the US is parental pressure to enter an arrange marriage. (You could say she was trying to live American values.)

"This isn't cattle cars in Germany, and maybe things will change with a future administration, but it's very clear we're increasingly unwelcome".

Others have gone to Australia, where things are apparently friendlier.

Utah's loss, Bangalore's gain.

That's the kind of immigrant we really want. Really sorry to see this. There are tons of Indian immigrants here in SoCal. I have two close colleagues who were born there and came here as kids. Indian physicians are numerous too. I wonder what went wrong in your colleague's case?

[Ma'ake]

That's the kind of immigrant we really want. Really sorry to see this. There are tons of Indian immigrants here in SoCal. I have two close colleagues who were born there and came here as kids. Indian physicians are numerous too. I wonder what went wrong in your colleague's case?

In academic health sciences research, it's not uncommon for labs to form & dissolve, if the principal investigator struggles to get funding - the competition for grant funding is ferocious. Because of the employment requirements and terms for J and H level visas, her visa expired at a bad time, as her lab downsized, and while she was getting another job lined up, there were delays in getting her visa renewed even though she was technically still employed. The delay stretched into the lab's funding demise, she stayed as long as she could legally, and after hearing similar stories from other Indians and getting down inside a month of the visa expiring, decided to go home. Mid-30s post-Doc, extremely bright & very hard working.

Another researcher friend and spouse moved to UC-Irvine, moving up the academic research ladder. We've kept in touch. They LOVE Irvine (but miss the snow, too) but tell me both families back home are concerned about the situation here in the US. Have green cards, plan on staying here, but admit they're thinking more about returning to Chennai, depending on "how things go".

A couple of years ago we lost an Indian researcher to - somewhat surprisingly - India. Very promising, was in the process of getting a Green Card, but got a better offer, a chance to help build a new university sponsored research institute. India appears to be following China's lead in trying to keep their best & brightest home.

Between the two big nations where foreign researchers come from, the Indians have far more in common with us, in terms of western values, their English skills, they're really easy people to get along with, delightful.

[LA Ute]

Between the two big nations where foreign researchers come from, the Indians have far more in common with us, in terms of western values, their English skills, they're really easy people to get along with, delightful.

That’s been my experience too.

[LA Ute]

Boris Johnson is going to be an interesting guy to watch.

https://news.sky.com/story/never-mind-backstop-the-buck-stops-here-pm-johnson-takes-on-brexit-in-first-speech-11769701

[U-Ute]

Boris Johnson is going to be an interesting guy to watch.

https://news.sky.com/story/never-mind-backstop-the-buck-stops-here-pm-johnson-takes-on-brexit-in-first-speech-11769701

He's like Trump, but literate.

[LA Ute]

Nigel Farage says good-bye to the EU.

https://youtu.be/Lfyal78d9EQ

[UTEopia]

Nigel Farage says good-bye to the EU.

https://youtu.be/Lfyal78d9EQ

That is the speech Holmoe wanted to give when BYU went independent.

[LA Ute]