Reign in the desert: Utah at Arizona State

[U-Ute]

You've all convinced me to temper my expectations on this game. Utah 41-2


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If this is the case, we should do something the Steelers forgot to do and work on our free kick fielding techniques.

[SoCalPat]

Some of you worry way too damn much ... Only Utah beats Utah in this game. It sure the heck isn't going to be Arizona State that beats us. Too many things would have to go against season-long trends for us to lose.

ASU has broken 21 points in only three games this year. They are 69th in scoring offense. By comparison, Arizona is 65th, and has been without its starting QB for several games. ASU may have some potent weapons -- but getting into the end zone isn't a strength for the team as a whole.

Those three games ASU did break 21 points in? Average total defense ranking of 87. Shoot, this is a team that's struggled to score against bad defenses, getting only 13 points at home against Stanford, which is (coincidentally enough) 87th nationally in total defense.

Facing Utah's run defense won't surprise ASU. Because even at No. 3 nationally, Utah will be the third toughest run defense ASU has faced. That's right -- they've faced Nos. 1 and 2 in Michigan State and San Diego State. Yes, ASU actually did go 1-1 in those games, and almost went 2-0. But here's the catch: Michigan State is 105th in total offense, SDSU is 112th. Utah actually has an offense this year, and is 46th nationally in total offense.

Utah is favored by 7 per Vegas, should be favored by 8.5 per Sagarin, and is probably the Pac-12's biggest road over-performer since the league expanded to 12 teams. I laid the points against UCLA and I'll lay them again vs. ASU. The extra day of rest and prep should help as well. I shouldn't even have to sweat a back-door cover in this one -- Utes by 17.

[concerned]

Some of you worry way too damn much ... Only Utah beats Utah in this game. It sure the heck isn't going to be Arizona State that beats us. Too many things would have to go against season-long trends for us to lose.

ASU has broken 21 points in only three games this year. They are 69th in scoring offense. By comparison, Arizona is 65th, and has been without its starting QB for several games. ASU may have some potent weapons -- but getting into the end zone isn't a strength for the team as a whole.

Those three games ASU did break 21 points in? Average total defense ranking of 87. Shoot, this is a team that's struggled to score against bad defenses, getting only 13 points at home against Stanford, which is (coincidentally enough) 87th nationally in total defense.

Facing Utah's run defense won't surprise ASU. Because even at No. 3 nationally, Utah will be the third toughest run defense ASU has faced. That's right -- they've faced Nos. 1 and 2 in Michigan State and San Diego State. Yes, ASU actually did go 1-1 in those games, and almost went 2-0. But here's the catch: Michigan State is 105th in total offense, SDSU is 112th. Utah actually has an offense this year, and is 46th nationally in total offense.

Utah is favored by 7 per Vegas, should be favored by 8.5 per Sagarin, and is probably the Pac-12's biggest road over-performer since the league expanded to 12 teams. I laid the points against UCLA and I'll lay them again vs. ASU. The extra day of rest and prep should help as well. I shouldn't even have to sweat a back-door cover in this one -- Utes by 17.

What is their defense ranked--total, against the pass and run? They gave up a ton of points to Jack Sears once he felt comfortable.

[sancho]

What is their defense ranked--total, against the pass and run?

Any defense that stops our run game has a chance to beat us. It all starts on the ground for us.

[SoCalPat]

What is their defense ranked--total, against the pass and run? They gave up a ton of points to Jack Sears once he felt comfortable.

65th against the run, 72nd against the pass, 52nd in yards per play, but 40th in scoring defense. But they're 7th in TFL and 35th in sacks, so that accounts for the discrepancy in total defense and scoring defense.

[Dwight Schr-Ute]

An optimistic breakdown of the numbers from Dave Bartoo.