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Thread: 2019 Offseason thread

  1. #121
    Quote Originally Posted by UTEopia View Post
    Is it too early to start who will be next and where will he go?
    Well, I think we've been averaging a transfer a month throughout the off-season and there are still a couple more months until the season starts....

  2. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by UBlender View Post
    Well, I think we've been averaging a transfer a month throughout the off-season and there are still a couple more months until the season starts....
    It has become ridiculous.

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  3. #123
    Had an interesting conversation this weekend regarding the state of Utah basketball. I'll first add that with new transfer rules I'm going to be a bit more lenient with coaches regarding this, particularly if you are losing kids who would never see the floor, or even good kids who want to start right away, or who can see the writing on the wall. A society built by helicopter parents is going to produce that sort of a kid and that sort of character.

    However, I view losing guys like Jayce and Tillman as inexcusable. They were to be the anchors of the program.

    But, since we can't do much about that, the friend I had the conversation with (who shares my feelings as mentioned) was pretty high on the kids coming in. Particularly he described the Finnish kid as 'Alex Jensen-esque' when it comes to defense and rebounding (not offensively) - and he isn't the type to throw around that kind of praise lightly. It has been a seeming long time since we've had a serious defensive/rebounding guy.

    Some other thoughts on the guys coming in that I'll try to relay, but it also sounds like we'll have an inside presence who can also go out and hit threes.

    All of this is meaningless if they transfer after this year - and as my former employer used to say, "potential doesn't pay bills" but interesting to me nonetheless.

  4. #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    Gaskin lands at Montana. Good for him. Not to say anything nice about Larry...why would anyone want to do that? But I would have to imagine that given his ties to Montana, he helped Gaskin get there...especially given how late in the offseason Gaskin decided to leave.

    So...

    Donnie Tillman - UNLV
    Jayce Johnson - Marquette
    Brandon Morely - UVU (not on scholarship at Utah)
    Charles Jones Jr - Portland St.
    Naseem Gaskin - Montana
    Vante Hendrix - New Mexico (Fresno first, then UNM)
    Christian Popoola - SLCC

    There you have it.
    For all the hand-wringing out there, I can only see one name on this list, outside of Tillman, that I think could've had a big enough impact on this team that I don't think is easily replaced: Vante Handrix.

    That kid was athletic.

  5. #125
    Quote Originally Posted by U-Ute View Post
    For all the hand-wringing out there, I can only see one name on this list, outside of Tillman, that I think could've had a big enough impact on this team that I don't think is easily replaced: Vante Handrix.

    That kid was athletic.
    We'll see if Vontae becomes anything. But Jayce is a significant loss to the 2019-20 team.

  6. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    We'll see if Vontae becomes anything. But Jayce is a significant loss to the 2019-20 team.
    Unless you're thinking that this is a significant loss from a depth standpoint, I think this is where we will have to agree to disagree. Jayce was solid, and I like the kid's work ethic, but he was far from irreplaceable.

    https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...johnson-1.html

    Season School Conf G GS MP FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS SOS
    2016-17 Utah Pac-12 32 6 12.3 1.6 2.9 .565 1.6 2.9 .565 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.7 .434 1.3 3.0 4.3 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.9 2.1 4.0 4.32
    2017-18 Utah Pac-12 30 1 16.8 2.0 3.8 .522 2.0 3.8 .522 0.0 0.0 1.5 2.4 .630 1.7 3.8 5.4 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.0 2.4 5.5 6.40
    2018-19 Utah Pac-12 29 25 21.9 3.0 5.0 .597 3.0 5.0 .597 0.0 0.0 1.2 2.9 .400
    2.6
    5.1 7.7 0.5 0.3 1.1 1.2 3.0 7.1 5.10
    Career Utah 91 32 16.8 2.2 3.8 .564 2.2 3.8 .564 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.3 .488 1.8 3.9 5.8 0.3 0.2 0.9 1.0 2.5 5.5 5.27

    EDIT: Ooh... they've added plus/minus to their stats.

    Advanced
    Rk Player G GS MP PER TS% eFG% 3PAr FTr PProd ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS WS/40 OBPM DBPM BPM
    1 Timmy Allen 29 26 834 20.3 .626 .584 .032 .597 360 6.5 14.4 10.5 17.2 1.8 0.7 17.2 21.0 2.5 0.5 3.0 .144 3.7 0.7 4.4
    2 Donnie Tillman 31 15 845 18.0 .586 .535 .530 .448 322 5.9 16.9 11.5 11.5 1.3 1.3 12.8 19.3 2.2 0.5 2.7 .129 4.3 0.0 4.3
    3 Parker Van Dyke 31 18 751 14.8 .610 .603 .842 .067 235 0.6 6.2 3.5 13.1 2.3 0.6 11.1 16.5 1.7 0.3 2.0 .105 5.2 -1.2 4.0
    4 Vante Hendrix 4 0 71 18.8 .651 .600 .850 .400 30 3.4 16.4 10.0 16.3 0.8 0.0 14.4 20.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 .155 6.1 -2.5 3.6
    5 Both Gach 30 14 602 16.0 .612 .564 .583 .344 236 3.2 8.9 6.1 20.2 1.6 0.7 21.5 20.5 1.3 0.2 1.5 .098 3.5 -1.4 2.1
    6 Sedrick Barefield 31 28 999 18.4 .562 .522 .587 .279 506 1.2 6.4 3.9 24.6 1.7 0.0 14.9 27.8 2.7 0.3 3.0 .119 5.0 -3.0 2.0
    7 Jayce Johnson 29 25 634 18.7 .559 .597 .000 .590 214 14.1 27.4 20.9 4.6 0.7 5.6 15.6 17.6 1.1 0.7 1.8 .114 -0.2 1.8 1.6
    8 Riley Battin 31 21 624 13.6 .588 .573 .497 .232 191 4.6 15.2 10.0 10.9 0.7 0.2 14.3 16.0 1.2 0.2 1.4 .089 2.6 -1.1 1.5
    9 Novak Topalovic 31 6 382 10.9 .520 .493 .000 .493 88 7.0 22.6 14.9 3.3 0.5 5.4 20.3 13.9 0.2 0.3 0.5 .053 -3.4 1.7 -1.7
    10 Brandon Morley 16 0 108 12.0 .485 .471 .529 .382 41 15.7 14.1 14.8 3.5 1.1 1.0 16.6 22.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 .058 0.1 -3.5 -3.4
    11 Beau Rydalch 11 0 33 16.8 .438 .417 .667 .500 14 14.6 38.9 27.0 5.8 0.0 6.6 11.9 26.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 .088 -2.1 -1.3 -3.4
    12 Charles Jones Jr 27 2 319 4.6 .460 .451 .634 .183 71 1.1 7.7 4.5 9.9 1.1 0.0 20.6 15.6 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -.004 -1.9 -1.9 -3.8
    13 Marc Reininger 7 0 13 -1.1 .256 .000 .000 2.000 1 0.0 9.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 8.3 33.9 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -.094 -10.2 2.2 -8.0
    14 Brooks King 7 0 10 -9.0 .127 .000 1.000 .667 1 0.0 23.4 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -.162 -11.4 -7.9 -19.3
    Last edited by U-Ute; 08-16-2019 at 09:49 AM.

  7. #127
    Quote Originally Posted by U-Ute View Post
    Unless you're thinking that this is a significant loss from a depth standpoint, I think this is where we will have to agree to disagree. Jayce was solid, and I like the kid's work ethic, but he was far from irreplaceable.
    I don't know about irreplaceable, but he was an experienced starter. That along makes him the 2nd most valuable transfer of the Larry K era (after Tillman, of course). I guess the impact of his transfer depends on the quality of his inexperienced replacements. We'll see.

  8. #128
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    Year over year rankings of Utah basketball recruits by 24/7. I'm not sure they're the best, but they're probably as accurate as anyone.

    Screenshot from 2019-08-16 10-37-01.png

  9. #129
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    That last one is a bit wonky in that it shows the 4 year moving average for the coaches. This is the concrete rankings by coaches, along with the overall 4 year moving average.

    Screenshot from 2019-08-16 10-47-33.png

  10. #130
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    I don't know about irreplaceable, but he was an experienced starter. That along makes him the 2nd most valuable transfer of the Larry K era (after Tillman, of course). I guess the impact of his transfer depends on the quality of his inexperienced replacements. We'll see.
    I think we can get his production from a guy like Battin (8 and 8 or so) and it seems like the young centers are better rim protectors than Jayce, but yes, it would've certainly been nice to have him come back for his senior season. He improved a lot by the end of last season. That said, I think he gets bullied in the Big East.
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  11. #131
    Quote Originally Posted by DrumNFeather View Post
    I think we can get his production from a guy like Battin (8 and 8 or so) and it seems like the young centers are better rim protectors than Jayce, but yes, it would've certainly been nice to have him come back for his senior season. He improved a lot by the end of last season. That said, I think he gets bullied in the Big East.
    I agree with this. I think losing Jayce hurts the program more than it hurts the team. We lost a guy that can' shoot to save his life (40% FTs!!!!!), is not a rim protector and is an average defender. He is a huge plus rebounder, however. But when your lone senior starter leaves, that is a gut punch for fans.

  12. #132
    Those advanced stats seem to like Timmy. He was really good in conference play. I expect a big leap from him and Gach this year. Hopefully Battin/Carlson/Thioune/Jantunen can do enough to help us forget DT and JJ. This year is all about experience and getting better for a run in 2021.

  13. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by UtahsMrSports View Post
    Those advanced stats seem to like Timmy. He was really good in conference play. I expect a big leap from him and Gach this year. Hopefully Battin/Carlson/Thioune/Jantunen can do enough to help us forget DT and JJ. This year is all about experience and getting better for a run in 2021.
    They do confirm what I think I'm seeing. Allen isn't flashy, but good things happen when he's on the floor.

  14. #134
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    More charts because I'm a data nerd:

    Recruiting classes for a few of our conference mates that we like to compare ourselves with

    Concrete year/year
    Screenshot from 2019-08-16 12-47-41.png

    4 year moving averages
    Screenshot from 2019-08-16 12-48-34.png

  15. #135
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    Downplaying Jayce's impact is nonsense, and I say this as one who posted before league play started (or shortly thereafter) that Jayce was our worst offensive option. That changed in league play (like Barefield and Allen, his PER was better in league games than in the non-con), and if he could shoot even 65 percent from the line, he'd probably be one of our best offensive options (as far as 2-point scoring options are concerned).

    On a lousy defensive team, almost a generational worst (only the 2006-07 team in Ray's last team was worse), Jayce was still far and away our best defensive player. His defensive rating of 104.4 is almost five points better than the next-best guy in the rotation (Allen 109.2). Jayce's departure isn't what's gonna keep us out of the NCAA tournament, but he would've been a seasoned vet for the young guys to go up against and he would've accelerated their development. There is simply zero case that can be made that Jayce's departure from the program isn't a significant loss.

  16. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by SoCalPat View Post
    Downplaying Jayce's impact is nonsense, and I say this as one who posted before league play started (or shortly thereafter) that Jayce was our worst offensive option. That changed in league play (like Barefield and Allen, his PER was better in league games than in the non-con), and if he could shoot even 65 percent from the line, he'd probably be one of our best offensive options (as far as 2-point scoring options are concerned).

    On a lousy defensive team, almost a generational worst (only the 2006-07 team in Ray's last team was worse), Jayce was still far and away our best defensive player. His defensive rating of 104.4 is almost five points better than the next-best guy in the rotation (Allen 109.2). Jayce's departure isn't what's gonna keep us out of the NCAA tournament, but he would've been a seasoned vet for the young guys to go up against and he would've accelerated their development. There is simply zero case that can be made that Jayce's departure from the program isn't a significant loss.
    Yes, he was a good defensive presence. Your argument appears to be based on the premise that what he did defensively can't be easily replaced. I'd argue that it can - provided you have any 7-footers who can move a little bit.

    He was big and played with effort. You seem to think we lost Mutombo or something.

  17. #137
    Quote Originally Posted by U-Ute View Post
    More charts because I'm a data nerd:

    Recruiting classes for a few of our conference mates that we like to compare ourselves with

    Concrete year/year
    Screenshot from 2019-08-16 12-47-41.png

    4 year moving averages
    Screenshot from 2019-08-16 12-48-34.png
    Is the vertical axis still 247 ranking?
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  18. #138
    Quote Originally Posted by SoCalPat View Post
    Downplaying Jayce's impact is nonsense, and I say this as one who posted before league play started (or shortly thereafter) that Jayce was our worst offensive option. That changed in league play (like Barefield and Allen, his PER was better in league games than in the non-con), and if he could shoot even 65 percent from the line, he'd probably be one of our best offensive options (as far as 2-point scoring options are concerned).

    On a lousy defensive team, almost a generational worst (only the 2006-07 team in Ray's last team was worse), Jayce was still far and away our best defensive player. His defensive rating of 104.4 is almost five points better than the next-best guy in the rotation (Allen 109.2). Jayce's departure isn't what's gonna keep us out of the NCAA tournament, but he would've been a seasoned vet for the young guys to go up against and he would've accelerated their development. There is simply zero case that can be made that Jayce's departure from the program isn't a significant loss.
    I think that is true of any starter transferring. That happens you need to really start looking deeper at what is going on. Losing two guys in that category is an outright condemnation.

  19. #139
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    Quote Originally Posted by U-Ute View Post
    Yes, he was a good defensive presence. Your argument appears to be based on the premise that what he did defensively can't be easily replaced. I'd argue that it can - provided you have any 7-footers who can move a little bit.

    He was big and played with effort. You seem to think we lost Mutombo or something.
    He also led our team in defensive efficiency all three years he was at Utah. We'll see if Jayce's replacement will easily replicate that feat.

  20. #140
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    Quote Originally Posted by SeattleUte View Post
    Is the vertical axis still 247 ranking?
    Yes. So higher is worse.

  21. #141
    Quote Originally Posted by U-Ute View Post
    Yes. So higher is worse.
    One thing that needs to be borne in mind is that the difference between 50 and 200 or even 30 and 100 may be less significant than 30 and top 10. So looking only at the curve and numbers gives a misleading sense of proportion. Very interesting, though. Thanks.
    One thing I have learned in a long life: that all our science, measured against reality, is primitive and childlike -- and yet it is the most precious thing we have.

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    The fact that life evolved out of nearly nothing, some 10 billion years after the universe evolved out of literally nothing, is a fact so staggering that I would be mad to attempt words to do it justice.

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  22. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by SeattleUte View Post
    One thing that needs to be borne in mind is that the difference between 50 and 200 or even 30 and 100 may be less significant than 30 and top 10. So looking only at the curve and numbers gives a misleading sense of proportion. Very interesting, though. Thanks.
    Good point. You can probably break it down into 3 groups:

    1-30: Elite
    30-100: Average
    100+: Bad

    That's my gut feeling on how it breaks down on a rough scale.

  23. #143
    Quote Originally Posted by U-Ute View Post
    Good point. You can probably break it down into 3 groups:

    1-30: Elite
    30-100: Average
    100+: Bad

    That's my gut feeling on how it breaks down on a rough scale.
    I would add that there's a material difference between 1-10 and 11-30.
    One thing I have learned in a long life: that all our science, measured against reality, is primitive and childlike -- and yet it is the most precious thing we have.

    --Albert Einstein

    The fact that life evolved out of nearly nothing, some 10 billion years after the universe evolved out of literally nothing, is a fact so staggering that I would be mad to attempt words to do it justice.

    --Richard Dawkins

    Be kind to all, for everyone you meet is fighting a great battle.

    --Philo

  24. #144
    Sounds like we're on the verge of securing a commitment from (or may have already secured a commitment from) another guy ranked in 247's, Rivals', and ESPN's top 100. For all the consternation around LK he's recruiting better than any Utah coach ever (at least on paper, of course).

  25. #145
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scratch View Post
    Sounds like we're on the verge of securing a commitment from (or may have already secured a commitment from) another guy ranked in 247's, Rivals', and ESPN's top 100. For all the consternation around LK he's recruiting better than any Utah coach ever (at least on paper, of course).
    I agree. The ultimate issue for LK is that he needs to stop having a virtually new team every year.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  26. #146
    Quote Originally Posted by Scratch View Post
    Sounds like we're on the verge of securing a commitment from (or may have already secured a commitment from) another guy ranked in 247's, Rivals', and ESPN's top 100. For all the consternation around LK he's recruiting better than any Utah coach ever (at least on paper, of course).
    Caleb.JPG

  27. #147
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    We finally get a guy from Wasatch Academy?

  28. #148
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scratch View Post
    Sounds like we're on the verge of securing a commitment from (or may have already secured a commitment from) another guy ranked in 247's, Rivals', and ESPN's top 100. For all the consternation around LK he's recruiting better than any Utah coach ever (at least on paper, of course).
    Larry also has the cachet of the Pac-12 behind him, something no other Utah coach ever had.

  29. #149
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    I don't know anything about this kid. Seems like a tweener though. 6'7" seems a bit small for a PF. Is he quick enough to be a SF?

  30. #150
    Quote Originally Posted by U-Ute View Post
    I don't know anything about this kid. Seems like a tweener though. 6'7" seems a bit small for a PF. Is he quick enough to be a SF?
    Most sites list him as a SF, and I think he's up to about 6'8" now. I think the thought is that he will primarily be a SF, but can easily slide up and play the 4 against most teams depending on matchups.

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