Originally Posted by
DrumNFeather
This is the exact thing I would expect to hear, and have heard, from folks who don't really pay attention to the program or watch games, but run out after every loss to make sure we all know he wants Larry fired when they lose a game and are dead silent when he wins games. Mission accomplished.
You can't just say "make the NCAA tournament" as a metric without putting context to what that means. Typically that means a 20 win season for most P5 teams and in leagues that are really strong, you can probably get away with 18 wins. Right now, the Pac 12 doesn't have that luxury, as I'm sure you know.
So what does that mean?
First of all, it means that no other league is dealing with what ours is dealing with right now. The Pac 12 had two teams that were sub 200 NET ranking teams (Cal and WSU) and in Cal's case, they were over 300 most of the year. The closest any other league came to that? The ACC with Wake Forest at 184. So everyone goes into Pac 12 play with a 2-3 game hole playing against teams that are ranked around the same level as a couple of SWAC schools. Knowing this, you've got to adjust your non-conference schedule accordingly, and Utah actually did a decent job with this, but some of the teams they lost to who looked good at the time (BYU, NW) ended up not being very good. If you really want to know where their season turned as far as the tournament goes, it was that loss to Hawaii in the John Wooden Classic. A win over Hawaii puts them against Seton Hall (Q1) and against Fresno/Miami (which both ended up in the same general area s Grand Canyon, so that may end up being a wash).
The point is, because Utah has very little margin for error, they've got to make the most of their opportunities in the non-conference schedule. They didn't do that well enough this year. Part of that has to do with Larry's system (whatever that may be). His teams get better as the season goes on, but it hurts them in non-conference play because it is hard to get contributions from newcomers...and when you have several newcomers in a year it becomes a problem. Larry recently said in an interview with Kragthorpe that he and his staff need to figure out a way to accelerate the learning process so that they can have more success earlier in the season - so he is aware that this is a problem and is working with his staff to fix it.
So what does this all mean for next year's demand of "make the tournament, or else!"
Let's assume that they once again go 11-7 in league play. They've done that now three years in a row. That means they would need to go 9-3 in non-conference play to get to 20 wins...or win in the first round of the Pac 12 tournament...whatever combination gets you to 20.
We know they play the following teams so far:
vs. Minnesota (finished 61 in the NET)
vs. BYU (finished 85 in the NET)
@ Nevada (finished 23 in the NET, but have been absolutely gutted)
@ Missouri (finished 77 in the NET - this one is not for sure, but last year Andy Hill said they 'kicked this one a year down the road')
N - Weber St. (finished 182 in the NET)
N - Kentucky (finished 6 in the NET)
N - Myrtle Beach Invite (Miss St., Baylor, Villanova, Ohio, Coastal Carolina, Middle Tennessee, Tulane) - If I had to guess, I would say their opening opponent is either Coastal Carolina (163) or Ohio (175). Either way, a win there probably puts them in a position to play two of the three big boys in either the championship or third place game). They MUST win their first game in this tournament. Period.
So that leaves 3 more games to schedule, assuming these are all actually going to be played. There are several ways they could go here, but the bottom line is that because Cal will be historically bad and WSU will be close behind, they cannot afford to schedule NW Nazarine.
So when we talk about what the team needs to do to make the tourney next year, it begins with what they do in the non-conference schedule. I would contend that they must win those home games against MIN and BYU, beat a down Nevada on the road, beat Weber, beat their first round MBI opponent. Doing that would get them to 5 wins...and that is a metric we can start to work with from an informed position. If Missouri ends up on the schedule, they should be improved, but beatable. Kentucky will reload, but it will be a young team. Baylor, MSU and Nova will all be tough, for sure, but having them on the schedule will help.
It will be interesting to see what they do with those remaining 3 or 4 games. One thing we know for sure is that they can't be dogs. Krags suggested in his conversation with Larry that they've got some "interesting" things in the works, so we'll see.
The problem that Utah has right now relative to fan interest is a chicken/egg problem. Would winning help bring some fans back to the Huntsman Center? Of course (the students should go anyway...no excuses there). Would it help for people like you who've turned on Larry and decided that he needs to go no matter what? Probably not...because no matter what he does, he'll fall short (See LA Ute and Kyle). That's a fine position to take, but just be honest about it.
One more thing - you mentioned Kuzma's last year. We scheduled Xavier and Butler in the non-conference, and also played UVU that year. The single biggest thing that prevented us from making the tourney that year? Kuzma twisting his ankle and not playing vs. USF in the Diamond Head Classic. A win there puts us against Illinois St. (finished with a top 50 RPI) and then SDSU, verses playing Hawaii (RPI in the 300s) and Stephen F. Austin.
So the bottom line here is, if you want to make the NCAA Tournament, you need to understand what that entails, particularly in the current state of the Pac 12 and who Utah is playing next year. Not knowing these things means you're arguing from a position of ignorance.