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Thread: NCAA 2019 Football Season

  1. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by UBlender View Post
    We'll get more clarity on Tuesday but I think you're greatly underestimating the allure of the mighty SEC. I've already seen a lot of justification from talking heads about how Alabama narrowly lost to the best team and Tua wasn't 100%, etc. If Bama finishes strong, including a thumping of Auburn then they may well get in ahead of a 1-loss Big 12 or PAC 12 team.
    You may be right about the SEC, but I think you are wrong about clarity on Tuesday. Resist the temptation to believe that the early CFP rankings give any insight about what they will do in the end.

    I do believe that 12-1 Oregon or 12-1 Oklahoma are in over 11-1 Bama. Utah is a slightly different animal because the committee clearly cares about brand as well as everything else, and Utah doesn't have the brand that Oregon/OU have.

    They really do care about being a conference champion, though, and they will reward that 12th win.
    Last edited by sancho; 11-10-2019 at 10:35 PM.

  2. #32
    We still have a very small sample size but we have enough to start seeing some patterns. Personally, I think the worry that the SEC will get a second team in over a 1 loss conference champion is way overblown. The only time the SEC has put two teams in is when there were two conference champions who had two losses. Lets say Utah wins out, beats Oregon (who is 11-1 at that point). Lets also say Oklahoma wins out, beats Baylor. At that point Oregon is a better quality win than Oklahoma. But maybe they take Oklahoma because of branding (Im still unconvinced that has any sway) or they feel Oklahoma's loss was not as bad as Utah's. I still feel that the final spot will come down to Oklahoma or Utah over an Alabama. Until proven otherwise, I think that is what the limited data would suggest.

  3. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by UtahsMrSports View Post
    (Im still unconvinced that has any sway)
    Everything else you said made sense. This does not. At a bare minimum, there is a subconscious effect.

  4. #34
    Isn't it pretty clear now what needs to happen (if the Utes win out)? Auburn beats Alabama. LSU beats Georgia in the SEC championship. Ohio State beats Minnesota in the Big 10 championship (Minnesota still has a couple of tough games at Iowa and home against Wisconsin). Then the only possible fly in the ointment would be Oklahoma. I bet Oklahoma kills Baylor. But if Utah were to beat Oregon in a dramatic Pac 12 championship game, or convincingly, my money would be on Utah.

    The Big 12 and the ACC are both crappy this year. A lot weaker than the Pac 12.
    One thing I have learned in a long life: that all our science, measured against reality, is primitive and childlike -- and yet it is the most precious thing we have.

    --Albert Einstein

    The fact that life evolved out of nearly nothing, some 10 billion years after the universe evolved out of literally nothing, is a fact so staggering that I would be mad to attempt words to do it justice.

    --Richard Dawkins

    Be kind to all, for everyone you meet is fighting a great battle.

    --Philo

  5. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Everything else you said made sense. This does not. At a bare minimum, there is a subconscious effect.
    Agreed. If you don't think there is a bias that Alabama (or Oklahoma or Penn State or Oregon) is more deserving of a CFP bid than Utah you haven't paid attention. Now, we can argue about the extent of that bias, but the existence of it is beyond dispute.

  6. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by SeattleUte View Post
    Isn't it pretty clear now what needs to happen (if the Utes win out)? Auburn beats Alabama. LSU beats Georgia in the SEC championship. Ohio State beats Minnesota in the Big 10 championship (Minnesota still has a couple of tough games at Iowa and home against Wisconsin). Then the only possible fly in the ointment would be Oklahoma. I bet Oklahoma kills Baylor. But if Utah were to beat Oregon in a dramatic Pac 12 championship game, or convincingly, my money would be on Utah.

    The Big 12 and the ACC are both crappy this year. A lot weaker than the Pac 12.
    Yeah, this is correct. Oklahoma not losing on Saturday when they absolutely, positively should have is the big story of the weekend for me. Basically, that loss would have put us on a crash course with destiny (with the caveat that we still have a less than 50% chance of any of this mattering; we still need to win out).

  7. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Applejack View Post
    Yeah, this is correct. Oklahoma not losing on Saturday when they absolutely, positively should have is the big story of the weekend for me. Basically, that loss would have put us on a crash course with destiny (with the caveat that we still have a less than 50% chance of any of this mattering; we still need to win out).
    Weirder things have happened.

    Also, Oklahoma could lose at Oklahoma State.
    One thing I have learned in a long life: that all our science, measured against reality, is primitive and childlike -- and yet it is the most precious thing we have.

    --Albert Einstein

    The fact that life evolved out of nearly nothing, some 10 billion years after the universe evolved out of literally nothing, is a fact so staggering that I would be mad to attempt words to do it justice.

    --Richard Dawkins

    Be kind to all, for everyone you meet is fighting a great battle.

    --Philo

  8. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by Applejack View Post
    Agreed. If you don't think there is a bias that Alabama (or Oklahoma or Penn State or Oregon) is more deserving of a CFP bid than Utah you haven't paid attention. Now, we can argue about the extent of that bias, but the existence of it is beyond dispute.
    Show me the evidence of a name brand getting in over someone else when it was a close call. Seriously. I just dont see it.

  9. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by UtahsMrSports View Post
    Show me the evidence of a name brand getting in over someone else when it was a close call. Seriously. I just dont see it.
    OSU got in over TCU and Baylor when those two teams were at least as deserving as the Buckeyes.

    Plus, it's just human nature. You can't erase it. They can pretend that they don't see the name, but of course they do. Who is on the playoff committee? People who have been in college football for their entire lives. You think they can just flip a switch and pretend they don't realize that Alabama is the most storied program in CF history?

  10. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by Applejack View Post
    Yeah, this is correct. Oklahoma not losing on Saturday when they absolutely, positively should have is the big story of the weekend for me.
    I hate the "go for two and the win" attitude, mostly because it never works. We did that against USC a few years ago. I was screaming at Kyle to take overtime.

  11. #41
    We also need Oregon to finish the regular season 11-1 and in the top 4 or 5.
    One thing I have learned in a long life: that all our science, measured against reality, is primitive and childlike -- and yet it is the most precious thing we have.

    --Albert Einstein

    The fact that life evolved out of nearly nothing, some 10 billion years after the universe evolved out of literally nothing, is a fact so staggering that I would be mad to attempt words to do it justice.

    --Richard Dawkins

    Be kind to all, for everyone you meet is fighting a great battle.

    --Philo

  12. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by SeattleUte View Post
    Isn't it pretty clear now what needs to happen (if the Utes win out)? Auburn beats Alabama. LSU beats Georgia in the SEC championship. Ohio State beats Minnesota in the Big 10 championship (Minnesota still has a couple of tough games at Iowa and home against Wisconsin). Then the only possible fly in the ointment would be Oklahoma. I bet Oklahoma kills Baylor. But if Utah were to beat Oregon in a dramatic Pac 12 championship game, or convincingly, my money would be on Utah.

    The Big 12 and the ACC are both crappy this year. A lot weaker than the Pac 12.
    On your list, I don't think Auburn over Alabama is necessary, and I don't think Minnesota over OSU is necessary. If everyone keeps winning, it will come down to Oregon/Utah against Oklahoma.

    The SEC, Big10, and ACC are likely getting their champions in. The 4th spot comes down to Pac-12 vs Big-12.

    The following teams control their playoff destiny:

    LSU, Georgia
    Baylor
    Clemson
    OSU, Minnesota, Penn State

  13. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by SeattleUte View Post
    We also need Oregon to finish the regular season 11-1 and in the top 4 or 5.
    Yes, and they are rooting for us as well.

  14. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    On your list, I don't think Auburn over Alabama is necessary, and I don't think Minnesota over OSU is necessary. If everyone keeps winning, it will come down to Oregon/Utah against Oklahoma.

    The SEC, Big10, and ACC are likely getting their champions in. The 4th spot comes down to Pac-12 vs Big-12.

    The following teams control their playoff destiny:

    LSU, Georgia
    Baylor
    Clemson
    OSU, Minnesota, Penn State
    I said Ohio State has to beat Minnesota, not the other way around. This is because if Minnesota beats Ohio State, they may both get in, but not vice versa.
    One thing I have learned in a long life: that all our science, measured against reality, is primitive and childlike -- and yet it is the most precious thing we have.

    --Albert Einstein

    The fact that life evolved out of nearly nothing, some 10 billion years after the universe evolved out of literally nothing, is a fact so staggering that I would be mad to attempt words to do it justice.

    --Richard Dawkins

    Be kind to all, for everyone you meet is fighting a great battle.

    --Philo

  15. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    OSU got in over TCU and Baylor when those two teams were at least as deserving as the Buckeyes.

    Plus, it's just human nature. You can't erase it. They can pretend that they don't see the name, but of course they do. Who is on the playoff committee? People who have been in college football for their entire lives. You think they can just flip a switch and pretend they don't realize that Alabama is the most storied program in CF history?
    Are you talking 2014 when the big 12 didn't have a title game and Ohio state won theirs? Because that only strengthens my argument..

  16. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by SeattleUte View Post
    I said Ohio State has to beat Minnesota, not the other way around. This is because if Minnesota beats Ohio State, they may both get in, but not vice versa.
    My bad. I do disagree, though. I don't think they will put two Big10 teams in unless things get really crazy.

  17. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by UtahsMrSports View Post
    Are you talking 2014 when the big 12 didn't have a title game and Ohio state won theirs? Because that only strengthens my argument..
    I am talking about 2014 when if TCU or Baylor had been named Texas or Oklahoma, they'd have been in. We all know it. The title game was a convenient explanation for the committee, but that was all about OSU's brand relative to TCU/Baylor.

  18. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    I am talking about 2014 when if TCU or Baylor had been named Texas or Oklahoma, they'd have been in. We all know it. The title game was a convenient explanation for the committee, but that was all about OSU's brand relative to TCU/Baylor.
    That's based on nothing more than your own paranoia.

  19. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by UtahsMrSports View Post
    That's based on nothing more than your own paranoia.
    Well, that and the "paranoia" of a million other fans and dozens of sports journalists who wrote about it at the time. Baylor and TCU were ahead of OSU in the last few CFB rankings. All the talk was about how to decide between the frogs and the bears, and then Urban came along and absolutely clobbered Wisconsin in the Big10 title game. I've followed football for long enough to know that if Indiana had been the team clobbering Wiscy in the title game, it wouldn't have been enough to put the Hoosiers in the playoff.

    On occasion, I find people like you who believe a committee consisting of guys like Frank Beamer and Ronnie Lott is able to be completely, inhumanly impartial. It's a weird fantasy that I don't understand.

  20. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    Well, that and the "paranoia" of a million other fans and dozens of sports journalists who wrote about it at the time. Baylor and TCU were ahead of OSU in the last few CFB rankings. All the talk was about how to decide between the frogs and the bears, and then Urban came along and absolutely clobbered Wisconsin in the Big10 title game. I've followed football for long enough to know that if Indiana had been the team clobbering Wiscy in the title game, it wouldn't have been enough to put the Hoosiers in the playoff.

    On occasion, I find people like you who believe a committee consisting of guys like Frank Beamer and Ronnie Lott is able to be completely, inhumanly impartial. It's a weird fantasy that I don't understand.
    Ha! No, I'm the one here grounded in what has happened and not hypothetical or hyperbole.

    So far, the committee has shown that they favor teams who win a p5 conference title over teams who don't. That works in conjunction with their favor of teams who have 1 or fewer losses over teams with two or more. If we stay/get to the positive side of those metrics; we will be in barring a few scenarios.

    I hope we get to see who is right; our floor would be the rose Bowl. And that would be one heck of a season.

  21. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by UtahsMrSports View Post
    I hope we get to see who is right; our floor would be the rose Bowl. And that would be one heck of a season.
    I'm not sure we can see who is right. But I do agree with you that the SEC will not get two teams in if Oregon, Utah, or Oklahoma is 12-1. I do worry that they will pick Oklahoma over Utah in that scenario, in part due to Oklahoma's brand. I don't think that's a crazy or paranoid concern at all in any system that is not run by computers.

  22. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by sancho View Post
    I'm not sure we can see who is right. But I do agree with you that the SEC will not get two teams in if Oregon, Utah, or Oklahoma is 12-1. I do worry that they will pick Oklahoma over Utah in that scenario, in part due to Oklahoma's brand. I don't think that's a crazy or paranoid concern at all in any system that is not run by computers.
    Fair enough.

  23. #53
    Oregon continues to kick itself over its massive Auburn choke job. Auburn is so bad. They are the only top 10 team that I would not be nervous to play against.

  24. #54
    Minnesota loses. I guess they still control their playoff destiny, but no one really thinks it's happening.

    Bama loses Tua. Too bad for the kid, but that should put the nail in the coffin of the Bama playoff hopes.

    Texas loses, which will cost Oklahoma a top 25 win. KState loses, so Oklahoma's loss is no longer to a top 15 team.

    Not chaos, but it's been a decent day for the Pac-12 hopes. Now let's take care of business!

  25. #55
    Still at 7 in the playoff. If we win out, the only thing keeping us out is LSU losing to Georgia. Having auburn beat Bama for insurance would be nice too.

  26. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by UtahsMrSports View Post
    Still at 7 in the playoff. If we win out, the only thing keeping us out is LSU losing to Georgia. Having auburn beat Bama for insurance would be nice too.
    Hinton agrees with you for the most part. He believes that a 12-1 Ohio State could also get in before us. He also has us right next to Oklahoma in the pecking order, so that could flip if OU beats Baylor by 400 points in the rematch.


  27. #57
    It will help if the Utes can win three games in a row now by eye-raising margins. Like Urban did that season he won the NC at Ohio State. He was on the outside looking in with on loss, then pulverized Wisconsin (Gary Anderson) in the Big 10 title game 59-0. Then they just kept rolling over Alabama and Oregon. Gary Anderson never recovered.
    Last edited by SeattleUte; 11-21-2019 at 11:07 AM.
    One thing I have learned in a long life: that all our science, measured against reality, is primitive and childlike -- and yet it is the most precious thing we have.

    --Albert Einstein

    The fact that life evolved out of nearly nothing, some 10 billion years after the universe evolved out of literally nothing, is a fact so staggering that I would be mad to attempt words to do it justice.

    --Richard Dawkins

    Be kind to all, for everyone you meet is fighting a great battle.

    --Philo

  28. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by SeattleUte View Post
    It will help if the Utes can win three games in a row now by eye-raising margins. Like Urban did that season he won the NC at Ohio State. He was on the outside looking in with on loss, then pulverized Wisconsin (Gary Anderson) in the Big 10 title game 59-0. Then they just kept rolling over Alabama and Oregon. Gary Anderson never recovered.
    Agree, and this works for Oregon, Oklahoma, Baylor, and maybe Alabama as well. It could work for or against OSU/LSU if they don't win their conferences. Say Georgia beats LSU 52-7. Are they really gonna pick a team that gets routed in their conference title game?

  29. #59
    Senior Member Scorcho's Avatar
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    Wilner points out that nobody has been able to finish the PAC-12 schedule 9-0, Oregon is on pace to do that, but he thinks the Ducks game at Tempe is dangerous. He has ASU upsetting Oregon.

    If that happens, all playoff talk for the Pac-12 is kaput.

  30. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by Scorcho View Post
    Wilner points out that nobody has been able to finish the PAC-12 schedule 9-0, Oregon is on pace to do that, but he thinks the Ducks game at Tempe is dangerous. He has ASU upsetting Oregon.

    If that happens, all playoff talk for the Pac-12 is kaput.
    Tempe is always a horrible place to play. But I disagree with him. This ASU team seems to have mailed it in.
    One thing I have learned in a long life: that all our science, measured against reality, is primitive and childlike -- and yet it is the most precious thing we have.

    --Albert Einstein

    The fact that life evolved out of nearly nothing, some 10 billion years after the universe evolved out of literally nothing, is a fact so staggering that I would be mad to attempt words to do it justice.

    --Richard Dawkins

    Be kind to all, for everyone you meet is fighting a great battle.

    --Philo

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