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Thread: Covid-19

  1. #1
    Administrator U-Ute's Avatar
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    Covid-19

    I figured we needed something more postive to talk about other than our basketball team's outlook.

    Are you a "Growther" or a "Base-rater"? Me, I'm in the "Growther" camp.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...e?srnd=opinion

    While not as deadly as SARS or MERS, this thing seems to be extremely contagious with a high enough mortality rate (2%-3%) to cause some real problems. To put it into perspective, the annual flu is harder to transmit and has a mortality rate of .1%. This more on par with the Spanish Flu of 1918, which ended up killing a conservative estimate of 20m people (2% of 1B people) and it seems to be much more contagious.

    I'm not bunkering down or wearing masks yet, but it appears much more deadly than some officials (*cough* Trump *cough*) want us to believe.

    An interesting historical breakdown of the Spanish Flu of 1918: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/histo...ar-180965222/#

  2. #2
    “Children and dogs are as necessary to the welfare of the country as Wall Street and the railroads.” -- Harry S. Truman

    "You never soar so high as when you stoop down to help a child or an animal." -- Jewish Proverb

    "Three-time Pro Bowler Eric Weddle the most versatile, and maybe most intelligent, safety in the game." -- SI, 9/7/15, p. 107.

  3. #3
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    This is not a "don't worry, be happy" article!

    Coronavirus Is Very Different From the Spanish Flu of 1918. Here’s How.


    https://www.facebook.com/lowell.brown/posts/10220624311014168?notif_id=1583851093750577&notif_ t=feedback_reaction_generic

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  4. #4
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    Also not a feel-good article:

    When a danger is growing exponentially, everything looks fine until it doesn’t


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...what-you-cant/
    Last edited by LA Ute; 03-11-2020 at 02:43 PM.

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  5. #5
    Administrator U-Ute's Avatar
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    I've been tracking the CDC numbers in a spreadsheet.

    I'm using the known mortality rate (between 2%-3%) to try and get a handle on whether or not we have enough testing. What we're seeing right now, based on the number of deaths reported, is that we should have found at least 1200 people who have tested positive, or roughly twice what we have found so far.

    Sadly, considering that the number of deaths is actually a lagging indicator, what it means is that we should have found 1200 people two weeks ago.

    So far we are tracking pretty cleanly to a 50% increase in positive tests per day. That indicates that we're ramping up our testing pretty good. Until the calculated mortality rate gets down to levels that we know it should be at, and our day/day increase in positive tests drops pretty low, we probably don't have adequate testing.

    cdc-mar-11.jpg
    Last edited by U-Ute; 03-11-2020 at 02:54 PM.

  6. #6
    Sam the Sheepdog LA Ute's Avatar
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    A good, reliable source for information.

    https://edhub.ama-assn.org/jn-learni...m_medium=email

    "It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye."
    --Antoine de Saint-Exupery

    "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold."
    --Yeats

    “True, we [lawyers] build no bridges. We raise no towers. We construct no engines. We paint no pictures - unless as amateurs for our own principal amusement. There is little of all that we do which the eye of man can see. But we smooth out difficulties; we relieve stress; we correct mistakes; we take up other men's burdens and by our efforts we make possible the peaceful life of men in a peaceful state.”

    --John W. Davis, founder of Davis Polk & Wardwell

  7. #7
    My HS Senior has pretty much checked out for the year. Yes, he still has homework, but, it's pretty minimal. For example his Community Service class takes about 10 minutes a week to answer a few simple questions. He reads about 2 chapters a day for English, and that's the bulk of time spent on homework.

    The school suggests each class will take about 1.5 hours a week in homework (around 10 hours), but, I've found this isn't the case. Some days he has zip. Other days up to 2 hours. On average, maybe 5-7 hours of work a week.

    Admittedly, he isn't the greatest student (around 3.3 GPA) as he's more into sports than academics at this point. The most interesting thing he's said about online learning is that he isn't learning very much new material (exception is statistics).

    I've come away with two major conclusions on how CV19 has impacted him -- the seniors, in particular, have been screwed out of what should've been their most memorable year. He's an all-state baseball player going 9 for 11 to start the season, then poof *** it's gone. Thank goodness he's also talented in football, otherwise, it would've been a brutal kick in the groin. But, no prom, no spring sports, no graduation ceremony (not sad about that one), no hangin' with buddies before missions hit, no senior pranks etc... etc... Secondly, I've recognized a lot of time is wasted at school, but, it's tons better than distance learning. Being social is important at this age.
    “Children and dogs are as necessary to the welfare of the country as Wall Street and the railroads.” -- Harry S. Truman

    "You never soar so high as when you stoop down to help a child or an animal." -- Jewish Proverb

    "Three-time Pro Bowler Eric Weddle the most versatile, and maybe most intelligent, safety in the game." -- SI, 9/7/15, p. 107.

  8. #8
    Administrator U-Ute's Avatar
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    As a programmer, I'm deeply disturbed by how this virus seems to present with so many different symptoms. The inconsistency of behavior keeps spinning around in my brain. I sometimes wonder if we're looking at the wrong thing and that the Coronavirus is somehow a symptom of the real problem that we haven't found yet.

    Doctors of UB5, help me understand this.

  9. #9
    Administrator U-Ute's Avatar
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    For my own purposes I put together a page of graphs based on the data coming from The Covid Tracking Project folks.

    I don't have a fancy name for it yet.

    http://ec2-3-95-10-127.compute-1.ama...0/countrydeath

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