Quote Originally Posted by Scorcho View Post
What should the expectations be for Utah basketball regarding making the NCAA Tournament? I think many Utah fans have an inflated view of Utah basketball and its history.

I took a look at the last 30 years of Utah men’s hoops. The last 30 years obviously include some spectacular years and several forgettable ones. Over that span, Utah has made the tournament 15 times and missed it 15 times. Majerus had a stretch during this time where he made the tournament 9 out of 10 years. Post Majerus Utah only went 2 out of 10.


I think most people would consider both of those periods outliers. Going to the tournament 90% of the time seems unreasonable as does 20%. IMO Utah is not a 90% tournament type team a.k.a Arizona/Gonzaga. It was with Majerus, but I believe Big Rick was a once in a generation type coach. Utah is also not Washington St/Arizona St where making the tourney is a rare occurrence (ASU has only made the tourney 6 times in the last 30 years).

Additionally, Jack Gardner had 6 appearances in 18 years (granted the tournament was much tougher to get in in those days) and in 10 years Pimm took Utah to 5 NCAA Tournaments.

I think it’s reasonable for Utah hoops to make the tournament between 40-60% of the time. In Majerus’ early years at Utah he only went twice in his first 5 years. Krystko has fallen short of that but considering his illness, a new league and having to play Christ to Utah basketball's Lazarus I still feel optimistic about the future of Ute hoops.
I don't know how much history can be relied upon given how much things have changed with the move to the PAC 12. In good years, the power conferences can get 5-8 teams into the NCAA. The PAC 12 has not been at that level and needs to get back there, but if it does then Utah should be in that group more often than not. That is basically requiring them to finish in the top half of the conference (something they've done every year since Larry's third year which was the first time he had something resembling a PAC 12 roster) and have a respectable out of conference schedule (something that has NOT happened often enough under Larry, but it should be the easier part of the equation to solve).

So I would say my expectation is for Utah to be an NCAA tournament team somewhere north of 50% of the time. I've seen some say 75% or 80% and I'm not quite that bullish yet, at least not until I see the PAC 12 re-establish itself and rebuild its reputation. I'd go with 66% as a solid goal, let's get there two out of every three years. I think Utah has the program in place to do this now and just needs to get the schedule to match. (I guess you could argue that it's not a strong enough goal because with better OOC scheduling it is not out of the question that Utah could be riding a streak of four or even five consecutive tournament appearances).