Much better than 9-9. In 2013-14, Arizona and UCLA went 1-2 in league, followed by a five-way tie for third at 10-8. Four of those teams made the tournament. The team that didn't -- Cal -- had the No. 36 SOS (to Utah's 88), and was 63rd in RPI to Utah's 82.
The 2013-14 team had 18 regular season D-1 wins, plus one in Vegas. So did that year's Cal team. I don't think one more win was what was lacking. Cal was a higher NIT seed (2, to Utah's 5). One more win wouldn't have guaranteed either team got in, but two likely would have. Let's say we need 21 D-1 wins. Utah gets there with an 8-2 non-con, an 11-7 mark in league play and two wins in Vegas.