The Utah Basketball Rebuild Project Thread: 2013 and after

[Rocker Ute]

Jayce is great. He's another Dalin Bachynski for us. He plays good defense and rebounds. He works hard, so I wouldn't be surprised to see his FT% get up into the high 60's, even with the awful form. But I would be very surprised to see him turn into a strong low post presence on offense.

This year has been hard for me to watch a lot of basketball games so the improvement I’m seeing with him may seem a little more stark than if I’d watched like I normally do. I’ll just say that Jayce has gone from a guy that I questioned if he was really a D1 player to a pretty solid presence out there. He still does a lot of stupid stuff, but nothing I see that isn’t correctable (except his FT shooting form) and given his improvement trajectory I think it’ll happen.

I’d like to say I’ll happily admit I’m wrong, but I won’t be happy about it - for him or me.


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[LA Ute]

based on expectations I give Utah a B+ on the year, but can we all agree this was Larry's last mulligan. No more:

- revolving door for talented players

- OOC schedules that hurt rather than help with March Madness

- losing to a lower seed in Vegas

I love Larry, but his warts aren't moving the program forward

I too am a big Larry fan but you make some good points.

[SoCalPat]

I had a much longer post typed up, but it repeated a lot of things people have already said. I will say this: Larry is 3-26 against Arizona and Oregon. That's not the stuff of coaches who get paid $3.3M per year.

[Scorcho]

I had a much longer post typed up, but it repeated a lot of things people have already said. I will say this: Larry is 3-26 against Arizona and Oregon. That's not the stuff of coaches who get paid $3.3M per year.

considering that Utah basketball was crawling out of the grave for the first 2-3 years of Larry's tenure not sure I would count those. Same with those who say he's only made the tourney 2 out of 7 years

[concerned]

considering that Utah basketball was crawling out of the grave for the first 2-3 years of Larry's tenure not sure I would count those. Same with those who say he's only made the tourney 2 out of 7 years

Agreed. The relevant stats began when Delon arrived.

[Scorcho]

Agreed. The relevant stats began when Delon arrived.

also I think his bout with cancer set the program back in 2016, he didn't recruit or coach very well which is understandable. And reports were that he was sicker than he ever let on

[Diehard Ute]

also I think his bout with cancer set the program back in 2016, he didn't recruit or coach very well which is understandable. And reports were that he was sicker than he ever let on

My wife had a benign tumor on her thyroid and had to have most of it removed a few years ago.

It took a huge toll on her, it was almost 2 years before she was saying she felt ok....to this day she still says she lacks the energy she had before the removal.


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[justaute]

I like Jayce, but don't think he has the same athleticism as Bachynski. He just isn't coordinated and fluid -- Bachynski wasn't fluid either, but I thought he was more coordinated and had more athleticism, and stronger. I think Jayce is an ok back-up. He's just not what I'd expect from a 4* recruit.

This year has been hard for me to watch a lot of basketball games so the improvement I’m seeing with him may seem a little more stark than if I’d watched like I normally do. I’ll just say that Jayce has gone from a guy that I questioned if he was really a D1 player to a pretty solid presence out there. He still does a lot of stupid stuff, but nothing I see that isn’t correctable (except his FT shooting form) and given his improvement trajectory I think it’ll happen.

I’d like to say I’ll happily admit I’m wrong, but I won’t be happy about it - for him or me.


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[SoCalPat]

considering that Utah basketball was crawling out of the grave for the first 2-3 years of Larry's tenure not sure I would count those. Same with those who say he's only made the tourney 2 out of 7 years

You really wanna do that? That would take half of Larry's wins away against Oregon, as we beat a ranked Ducks team in Year 2. It would actually make his win percentage worse.

[sancho]

just not what I'd expect from a 4* recruit.

Recruits are lottery tickets. The 4* recruits have better odds of paying off than the 3*'s do, but the odds are low on all of them. That's why Duke, UNC, and Kentucky stockpile. They grab 6 four-star recruits knowing that, on average, only 2 of them will end up good.

Jayce can be a fine starter for us - but only if we have interior offense coming from someone else. He just isn't going to reliably fill that role.

[UtahsMrSports]

I like Jayce, but don't think he has the same athleticism as Bachynski. He just isn't coordinated and fluid -- Bachynski wasn't fluid either, but I thought he was more coordinated and had more athleticism, and stronger. I think Jayce is an ok back-up. He's just not what I'd expect from a 4* recruit.

For all that Jayce does that frustrates us, when he is able to stay in the game, he rebounds at an almost elite clip (like almost top 10 nationally).

[SoCalPat]

Recruits are lottery tickets. The 4* recruits have better odds of paying off than the 3*'s do, but the odds are low on all of them. That's why Duke, UNC, and Kentucky stockpile. They grab 6 four-star recruits knowing that, on average, only 2 of them will end up good.

Jayce can be a fine starter for us - but only if we have interior offense coming from someone else. He just isn't going to reliably fill that role.

In full agreement. His elevator just doesn't move fast enough for him to be a threat offensively, but since rebounding strength largely comes below the rim, there's no reason he can't contribute significantly in this regard, and he already does.

[USS Utah]

Wait, didn't he win P-12 CoY for getting his team to overachieve?

Losing stinks, but let's try not to get carried away.

[USS Utah]

Utah was picked to finish seventh in the Pac-12 preseason poll after losing four of its top six scorers, including Kyle Kuzma, now with the NBA's Los Angeles Lakers. Krystkowiak molded the Utes into a potential NCAA Tournament team, leading them to 19 wins and the No. 3 seed in this week's Pac-12 tournament in Las Vegas.

https://www.sltrib.com/sports/utah-u...year-by-media/

[SeattleUte]

You really wanna do that? That would take half of Larry's wins away against Oregon, as we beat a ranked Ducks team in Year 2. It would actually make his win percentage worse.

I agree. What he did in the first two years is nothing but to the good for him. However, the fact that he started wiht such a weak hand doesn’t mean anything now. We expected more than we had with Boylen.

[Scorcho]

I agree. What he did in the first two years is nothing but to the good for him. However, the fact that he started wiht such a weak hand doesn’t mean anything now. We expected more than we had with Boylen.

Considering that Larry is also somewhat handicapped (at least against AZ & USC) at recruiting, I think he's done about as well as anyone could have asked. He took transfers from Long Beach St., Utah State and SLCC and finished 3rd in the conference. That's remarkable.

[SeattleUte]

Considering that Larry is also somewhat handicapped (at least against AZ & USC) at recruiting, I think he's done about as well as anyone could have asked. He took transfers from Long Beach St., Utah State and SLCC and finished 3rd in the conference. That's remarkable.

I agree he had an impressive record with this church ball team. My objection is that he has a church ball team. He doesn’t seem to have a continuous program right now. He needs to rely less on transfers and more on recruits who come as freshmen. The top two ranked teams in the country don’t have ones and dones, so it’s possible to compete with the Arizonas by recruiting guys who stay four years. Oregon is an example. We’ve had rental teams. Lots of fifth year players, JUCOS and other transfers. Also, there are some tendencies that are a problem, like his almost complete inability to beat Altman or Arizona, the NCAA tournament drought, and the way his teams just treat the NIT like a vacation.

We’re Utah, and there are a lot of explanations available for these problems. What we need is a coach who figures out how to work around the challenges or even turn them to his advantage. There are other coaches who can get us to the glass ceiling and leave us blaming the glass ceiling for the lack of exceptional seasons. We need one who breaks through, like has happened at Virginia and Villanova.

[LA Ute]

I agree. What he did in the first two years is nothing but to the good for him. However, the fact that he started wiht such a weak hand doesn’t mean anything now. We expected more than we had with Boylen.

I suspect that just about everyone here, except perhaps you, would agree that the program we have now is several light years ahead of the program Boylen was running.

[SeattleUte]

I suspect that just about everyone here, except perhaps you, would agree that the program we have now is several light years ahead of the program Boylen was running.

I agree. You misunderstood my comment. So he got us out of the pit that Boylen put us in. He doesn’t get a medal for that. That’s my point. That was the least we were entitled to expect. Giving him slack because he did that is like saying I don’t beat my wife so I’m a good husband.

[SoCalPat]

Considering that Larry is also somewhat handicapped (at least against AZ & USC) at recruiting, I think he's done about as well as anyone could have asked. He took transfers from Long Beach St., Utah State and SLCC and finished 3rd in the conference. That's remarkable.

Larry is the second-highest paid coach in the league. Tommy Connor is the highest-paid assistant in the league. If they're having to rely on transfers from the aforementioned schools, they're not earning their paycheck as it pertains to recruiting. They've got this year's class to bail them out. There are no more mulligans after this.

[LA Ute]

I agree. You misunderstood my comment. So he got us out of the pit that Boylen put us in. He doesn’t get a medal for that. That’s my point. That was the least we were entitled to expect. Giving him slack because he did that is like saying I don’t beat my wife so I’m a good husband.

Straw man. No one's saying he gets a medal for that. And, if you think all he's done is get us "out of the pit" I'm afraid you're still in a tiny minority. He's not perfect and (fortunately for him personally) he's not Majerus. But he runs a clean, principled, competitive program and I hope he continues on his generally upward arc.

[LA Ute]

Larry is the second-highest paid coach in the league. Tommy Connor is the highest-paid assistant in the league. If they're having to rely on transfers from the aforementioned schools, they're not earning their paycheck as it pertains to recruiting. They've got this year's class to bail them out. There are no more mulligans after this.

I agree. The revolving door and the recruiting misses need to stop. I do think other schools' corruption has been a factor in recruiting, however.

[Old Standing ute]

Recruiting (and playing) against AZ must be like:

being a trial attorney; if AZ was the other lawyer they would pay off 2 of the 8 jurors. you need an (or is it a), unanimous jury to win---not impossible, but would never happen.
or if you were making a sales pitch to a company & AZ would pay off 2 of the members of the Board---you might still have the winning pitch-, but would never happen.

[Scorcho]

What should the expectations be for Utah basketball regarding making the NCAA Tournament? I think many Utah fans have an inflated view of Utah basketball and its history.

I took a look at the last 30 years of Utah men’s hoops. The last 30 years obviously include some spectacular years and several forgettable ones. Over that span, Utah has made the tournament 15 times and missed it 15 times. Majerus had a stretch during this time where he made the tournament 9 out of 10 years. Post Majerus Utah only went 2 out of 10.


I think most people would consider both of those periods outliers. Going to the tournament 90% of the time seems unreasonable as does 20%. IMO Utah is not a 90% tournament type team a.k.a Arizona/Gonzaga. It was with Majerus, but I believe Big Rick was a once in a generation type coach. Utah is also not Washington St/Arizona St where making the tourney is a rare occurrence (ASU has only made the tourney 6 times in the last 30 years).

Additionally, Jack Gardner had 6 appearances in 18 years (granted the tournament was much tougher to get in in those days) and in 10 years Pimm took Utah to 5 NCAA Tournaments.

I think it’s reasonable for Utah hoops to make the tournament between 40-60% of the time. In Majerus’ early years at Utah he only went twice in his first 5 years. Krystko has fallen short of that but considering his illness, a new league and having to play Christ to Utah basketball's Lazarus I still feel optimistic about the future of Ute hoops.

[sancho]

I think it’s reasonable for Utah hoops to make the tournament between 40-60% of the time.

What teams make the tournament 40-60% of the time? You either make it almost every year, or you rarely make it at all. I just don't think 50% is a stable equilibrium. You will eventually tilt one way or the other.

One thing that's clear - the Pac-12 is down. That's an opportunity for someone to move up into the "almost every year" status. Might as well be Utah. We have UCLA and Arizona as every year programs. We have Oregon getting close to that status. A high major conference of 12 teams can support another "every year" program, and USC, Utah, UW, and ASU are the leading candidates.

[UBlender]

What should the expectations be for Utah basketball regarding making the NCAA Tournament? I think many Utah fans have an inflated view of Utah basketball and its history.

I took a look at the last 30 years of Utah men’s hoops. The last 30 years obviously include some spectacular years and several forgettable ones. Over that span, Utah has made the tournament 15 times and missed it 15 times. Majerus had a stretch during this time where he made the tournament 9 out of 10 years. Post Majerus Utah only went 2 out of 10.


I think most people would consider both of those periods outliers. Going to the tournament 90% of the time seems unreasonable as does 20%. IMO Utah is not a 90% tournament type team a.k.a Arizona/Gonzaga. It was with Majerus, but I believe Big Rick was a once in a generation type coach. Utah is also not Washington St/Arizona St where making the tourney is a rare occurrence (ASU has only made the tourney 6 times in the last 30 years).

Additionally, Jack Gardner had 6 appearances in 18 years (granted the tournament was much tougher to get in in those days) and in 10 years Pimm took Utah to 5 NCAA Tournaments.

I think it’s reasonable for Utah hoops to make the tournament between 40-60% of the time. In Majerus’ early years at Utah he only went twice in his first 5 years. Krystko has fallen short of that but considering his illness, a new league and having to play Christ to Utah basketball's Lazarus I still feel optimistic about the future of Ute hoops.

I don't know how much history can be relied upon given how much things have changed with the move to the PAC 12. In good years, the power conferences can get 5-8 teams into the NCAA. The PAC 12 has not been at that level and needs to get back there, but if it does then Utah should be in that group more often than not. That is basically requiring them to finish in the top half of the conference (something they've done every year since Larry's third year which was the first time he had something resembling a PAC 12 roster) and have a respectable out of conference schedule (something that has NOT happened often enough under Larry, but it should be the easier part of the equation to solve).

So I would say my expectation is for Utah to be an NCAA tournament team somewhere north of 50% of the time. I've seen some say 75% or 80% and I'm not quite that bullish yet, at least not until I see the PAC 12 re-establish itself and rebuild its reputation. I'd go with 66% as a solid goal, let's get there two out of every three years. I think Utah has the program in place to do this now and just needs to get the schedule to match. (I guess you could argue that it's not a strong enough goal because with better OOC scheduling it is not out of the question that Utah could be riding a streak of four or even five consecutive tournament appearances).

[SoCalPat]

What teams make the tournament 40-60% of the time? You either make it almost every year, or you rarely make it at all. I just don't think 50% is a stable equilibrium. You will eventually tilt one way or the other.

One thing that's clear - the Pac-12 is down. That's an opportunity for someone to move up into the "almost every year" status. Might as well be Utah. We have UCLA and Arizona as every year programs. We have Oregon getting close to that status. A high major conference of 12 teams can support another "every year" program, and USC, Utah, UW, and ASU are the leading candidates.

There are a ton of respectable, but not great, programs that make the tournament about 1 every 2-3 years. Look at the company we share here ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_D...bids_by_school

[SoCalPat]

I don't know how much history can be relied upon given how much things have changed with the move to the PAC 12. In good years, the power conferences can get 5-8 teams into the NCAA. The PAC 12 has not been at that level and needs to get back there, but if it does then Utah should be in that group more often than not. That is basically requiring them to finish in the top half of the conference (something they've done every year since Larry's third year which was the first time he had something resembling a PAC 12 roster) and have a respectable out of conference schedule (something that has NOT happened often enough under Larry, but it should be the easier part of the equation to solve).

So I would say my expectation is for Utah to be an NCAA tournament team somewhere north of 50% of the time. I've seen some say 75% or 80% and I'm not quite that bullish yet, at least not until I see the PAC 12 re-establish itself and rebuild its reputation. I'd go with 66% as a solid goal, let's get there two out of every three years. I think Utah has the program in place to do this now and just needs to get the schedule to match. (I guess you could argue that it's not a strong enough goal because with better OOC scheduling it is not out of the question that Utah could be riding a streak of four or even five consecutive tournament appearances).

The presence of NBA talent on a Utah team, I'd guess, is in direct correlation with NCAA success. When we have gobs of it, we're a threat nationally. When we don't, we rarely are. I'm open to correction here, but I believe our 2009 team is the only NCAA team we've fielded in the modern era (perhaps ever) that didn't have a future NBA player on it. Conversely, what Utah team had a first-round pick the ensuing year that didn't play in the tournament? I can think of at least one -- last year's team with Kuzma.

Not making the Dance this year would've been much easier to take had we made it last year -- and we should've, given the presence of an NBA player on our team.

[sancho]

There are a ton of respectable, but not great, programs that make the tournament about 1 every 2-3 years. Look at the company we share here ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_D...bids_by_school

I think we're talking about different things. I agree that, if you look at long term averages, you can find schools at just about any percentage. I think a 50% rate makes sense if you are talking about periods of greatness mixed with long droughts. That's how it has worked for Utah.

I don't think it's common for schools to get a 50% in rate by going hit-miss-hit-miss-hit-miss....

[snafu]

One concern I have with this staff is that they appear to be ignoring talent right from our own backyard. Maybe ignoring is not the right word but I see local kids like Yoeli Childs, McEwen, Jake Lindsay going elsewhere with seemingly little interest from Utah. Was Collette even on our radar coming out of high school?